Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- The market
- Sales forecasted to reach $11.1 billion in 2019
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of hot and cold cereals, at current prices, 2009-19
- Cold cereal represents 87% of the category
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- Figure 2: Total US retail sales of cereals, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- Market factors
- Away-from-home food spending, snacking, population shifts affecting category
- Key players
- Kellogg, General Mills’ sales decline
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- Figure 3: MULO sales of cereal at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014
- Retail channels
- Supermarket sales represent more than half of the category
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- Figure 4: Total US retail sales of cereals, by channel, at current prices, 2012-14
- The consumer
- Some 94% of US adults eat cereal
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- Figure 5: Personal consumption of cold and hot cereals, June 2014
- Nutritional concerns are main barriers to consumption
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- Figure 6: Reasons for eating less hot and/or cold cereals, top five, June 2014
- Nearly half of cereal eaters keep more than one type of cereal on hand
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- Figure 7: Behaviors related to cold and hot cereals, top five, June 2014
- Cereal praised for its versatility
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- Figure 8: Agreement with attitudes toward cold and hot cereals, top five, June 2014
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- How can the category reverse declining sales?
- Issues
- Insight: Focus on expanding consumption occasions
- What types of cereals do consumers want?
- Issues
- Insight: Health is key, but so is taste
- How can packaging innovation address consumer needs?
- Issues
- Insight: Move away from boxes toward smaller, resealable packs
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Many Mes
- Trend: Hungry Planet
- Trend: Make it Mine
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Sales and forecast of market
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereals, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Fairly flat sales in cereal’s future
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- Figure 11: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of hot and cold cereals, at current prices, 2009-19
- Forecast methodology
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Competition from other morning foods a category threat
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- Figure 12: Food away from home as a share of household food expenditures, 1982-2012
- Increased snacking leads to greater product innovation
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- Figure 13: Adults aged 20 years and older consuming specified number of snacks per day, 1977-78 and 2007-08
- Hispanic population growth creates opportunity
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- Figure 14: Total US population by race and Hispanic origin, 2009-19
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Other breakfast items heat up the competition
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- Figure 15: Household frozen waffles, pancakes, and French toast consumption, by presence of children in household, January 2013-March 2014
- Figure 16: Household frozen breakfast entrees and sandwiches consumption, February 2008-March 2014
- Foodservice items offer convenience
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Cold cereal continues to decline
- Sales of cereal, by segment
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- Figure 17: Total US retail sales of cereals, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- Cold cereal declines most from 2013-14
- Sales and forecast of cold cereal
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- Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereals at current prices, 2009-19
- Hot cereal continues marginal growth
- Sales and forecast of hot cereal
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- Figure 19: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereals at current prices, 2009-19
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Supermarket sales represent more than half of the category
- Sales of hot and cold cereals, by channel
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- Figure 20: Total US retail sales of cereals, by channel, at current prices, 2012-14
- Supermarket channel sales of hot and cold cereals
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- Figure 21: US supermarket sales of cereals, at current prices, 2009-14
- Other retail channel sales of hot and cold cereals
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- Figure 22: US sales of cereals, through other retail channels, at current prices, 2009-14
- Natural supermarkets
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- Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of cereals, by segment, 2011 and 2013*
- Figure 24: Natural supermarket sales of cereals, by gluten-free certification or labeling, 2011 and 2013*
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Cold cereal continues decline as hot cereal grows
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- Figure 25: “Kellogg’s - Milk and Cereal,” Commercial, July 2014
- Figure 26: Hello, Cereal Lovers Website, July 2014
- Manufacturer sales of cereal
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- Figure 27: MULO sales of cereal at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Brand Share – Hot Cereal
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- Key points
- Quaker’s growth continues, driven by Real Medleys brand
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- Figure 28: Quaker’s Nod Off TV Commercial, Commercial, April 2014
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- Figure 29: Gluten Free Mighty Tasty Cereal, YouTube Video, October 2013
- Manufacturer sales of hot cereal
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- Figure 30: MULO sales of hot cereal at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- Key measures remain constant
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- Figure 31: Key purchase measures for the top brands of hot cereal, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (year ago), and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
Brand Share – Cold Cereal
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- Key points
- Falling cold cereal sales inspire wave of varied marketing efforts
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- Figure 32: Special K Wonderland, Commercial, July 2014
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- Figure 33: Special K Fruit & Yogurt, product description, July 2014
- Figure 34: Smile While You Shake It, commercial, November 2013
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- Figure 35: Froot Loops “Couch,” commercial, June 2014
- Figure 36: 2014/Lucky To Be, YouTube Video, June 2014
- Manufacturer sales of cold cereal
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- Figure 37: MULO sales of cold cereal at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- RTE cereals decline overall across key measures
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- Figure 38: Key purchase measures for the top brands of cold cereal, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (year ago), and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
Innovations and Innovators
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- Near 100% increase in new packaging product launches
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- Figure 39: Hot and cold cereal product launches, by type, 2009-14*
- Thinking outside the box
- Fiber, whole grain claims grow
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- Figure 40: Hot and cold cereal product launches, by top ten claims, 2009-14*
- Protein-rich cereals help category compete
- Saying goodbye to GMOs
- Functional claims boost product value
- Moving beyond breakfast
Social Media – Hot and Cold Cereals
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- Key points
- Market overview
- Key social media metrics
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- Figure 41: Key social media metrics, July 2014
- Brand usage and awareness
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- Figure 42: Brand usage and awareness for select cereal brands, May 2014
- Interactions with cereal brands
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- Figure 43: Interactions with select cereal brands, May 2014
- Figure 44: Interactions with select cereal brands, May 2014 (continued)
- Leading online campaigns
- Image sharing
- Focus on kids
- Rebranding
- What we think
- Online conversations
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- Figure 45: Online conversations for select cereal brands, by week, July 14, 2013-July 13, 2014
- Where are people talking about cereal brands?
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- Figure 46: Online conversations for select cereal brands, by page type, July 14, 2013-July 13, 2014
- What are people talking about?
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- Figure 47: Topics of conversation around select cereal brands, July 14, 2013-July 13, 2014
Personal Consumption of Cold and Hot Cereals
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- Key points
- Some 94% of adults eat cereal
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- Figure 48: Personal consumption of cold and hot cereals – Any consumption, by presence of children in household, June 2014
- Figure 49: Frequency of deciding which cold cereal brands are bought, November 2012-December 2013
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- Figure 50: Frequency of deciding which hot cereal brands are bought, November 2012-December 2013
- Nearly one quarter eating more hot cereal this year
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- Figure 51: Personal consumption of cold and hot cereals – Any more, by gender and age, June 2014
- Figure 52: Personal consumption of cold and hot cereals – Any more, by gender and age, June 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 53: Eating more cereal types repertoire groups, by age, June 2014
Reasons for Eating Less Cold and Hot Cereals
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- Key points
- Nutritional concerns act as main barriers to consumption
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- Figure 54: Reasons for eating less hot and/or cold cereals, by generations, June 2014
Reasons for Eating Cold and Hot Cereals
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- Key points
- Men value cereal for its protein content, on-the-go convenience
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- Figure 55: Reasons for eating cold and/or hot cereals, by gender, June 2014
- Older generations motivated by convenience, fiber content
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- Figure 56: Reasons for eating cold and/or hot cereals, by generations, June 2014
Important Nutritional Claims
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- Key points
- Sugar, fiber, protein content most important
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- Figure 57: Chex gluten free oatmeal variety pack, July 2014
- Figure 58: Important nutritional claims, by presence of children in household, June 2014
- Younger consumers look for energizing claims, natural ingredients
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- Figure 59: Important nutritional claims, by generations, June 2014
Behaviors Related to Cold and Hot Cereals
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- Key points
- Nearly half keep multiple types of cereal on hand at once
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- Figure 60: Behaviors related to cold and hot cereals, by gender, June 2014
- Older consumers value variety
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- Figure 61: Behaviors related to cold and hot cereals, by age, June 2014
Attitudes Toward Cold and Hot Cereals
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- Key points
- Men less brand loyal, more trusting of cereal health benefits
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- Figure 62: Agreement with attitudes toward cold and hot cereals, by gender, June 2014
- Youngest consumers need more variety, convenient packaging
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- Figure 63: Agreement with attitudes toward cold and hot cereals, by generations, June 2014
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Hispanics significantly more likely to eat cereal
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- Figure 64: Personal consumption of cold and hot cereals – Any consumption, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
- Hispanics more interested in high-protein, gluten-free cereals
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- Figure 65: Important nutritional claims, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
- Blacks more likely to value taste, use cereal as a meal replacement
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- Figure 66: Behaviors related to cold and hot cereals, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
- Hispanics trust health benefits, want more portability
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- Figure 67: Agreement with attitudes toward cold and hot cereals, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
Consumer Segmentation
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- Figure 68: Hot and cold cereal clusters, June 2014
- Group one: Cereal Connoisseurs
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunities
- Group two: Convenience-seeking Consumers
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunities
- Group three: Apathetic Eaters
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunities
- Cluster characteristic tables
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- Figure 69: Target clusters, June 2014
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- Figure 70: Personal consumption of cold and hot cereals – Any consumption, by target clusters, June 2014
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- Figure 71: Reasons for eating less hot and/or cold cereals, by target clusters, June 2014
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- Figure 72: Reasons for eating cold and/or hot cereals, by target clusters, June 2014
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- Figure 73: Important nutritional claims, by target clusters, June 2014
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- Figure 74: Behaviors related to cold and hot cereals, by target clusters, June 2014
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- Figure 75: Agreement with attitudes toward cold and hot cereals, by target clusters, June 2014
- Cluster demographic tables
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- Figure 76: Target clusters by demographics, June 2014
- Cluster methodology
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Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Figure 77: Natural supermarket sales of cereals, by organic content, 2011 and 2013*
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- Figure 78: Hot and cold cereal product launches, by top ten companies, 2009-14*
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- Figure 79: Hot and cold cereal product launches, by top ten flavors, 2009-14*
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- Figure 80: Personal consumption of cold and hot cereals – Any consumption, by gender, June 2014
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- Figure 81: Personal consumption of cold and hot cereals – Any consumption, by generations, June 2014
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Appendix – Social Media – Hot and Cold Cereals
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- Brand usage or awareness
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- Figure 82: Brand usage or awareness. May-June 2014
- Figure 83: Cheerios usage or awareness, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 84: Rice Krispies usage or awareness, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 85: Lucky Charms usage or awareness, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 86: Honey Bunches of Oats usage or awareness, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 87: Quaker (oatmeal/hot cereal) usage or awareness, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 88: Honeycomb usage or awareness, by demographics, May-June 2014
- Activities done
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- Figure 89: Activities done, May-June 2014
- Figure 90: Cheerios – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 91: Cheerios – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 92: Cheerios – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 93: Cheerios – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 94: Rice Krispies – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 95: Rice Krispies – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 96: Rice Krispies – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 97: Rice Krispies – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 98: Lucky Charms – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 99: Lucky Charms – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 100: Lucky Charms – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 101: Honey Bunches of Oats – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 102: Honey Bunches of Oats – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 103: Honey Bunches of Oats – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 104: Honey Bunches of Oats – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 105: Quaker (oatmeal/hot cereal) – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 106: Quaker (oatmeal/hot cereal) – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 107: Quaker (oatmeal/hot cereal) – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 108: Quaker (oatmeal/hot cereal) – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 109: Honeycomb – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 110: Honeycomb – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, May-June 2014
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- Figure 111: Honeycomb – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, May-June 2014
- Key social media metrics
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- Figure 112: key social media metrics for select cereal brands, July 2014
- Online conversations
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- Figure 113: Online conversations for select cereal brands, by week, July 14, 2013-July 13, 2014
- Figure 114: Online conversations for select cereal brands, by page type, July 14, 2013-July 13, 2014
- Figure 115: Topics of conversation around select cereal brands, July 14, 2013-July 13, 2014
Appendix – Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data Definitions
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- Information Resources Inc. Consumer Network Metrics
Appendix – Trade Associations
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