Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Methodology
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Value retail sales of milk and flavoured milk in China, 2008-18
- Figure 2: Volume retail sales of milk and flavoured milk in China, 2008-18
- Market drivers
- Ageing population and the new wave of baby boom drive demand up
- Urbanisation fuels milk consumption
- Healthy lifestyles gain popularity
- Shortage of supply and growing labour costs drive the price up
- Scandals in the milk industry drive demand for freshness up
- Mixed feelings: Opportunities and pressures faced by imported milk
- Companies, brands and innovation
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- Figure 3: Manufacturers’ value shares in the milk and flavoured milk products retail market, 2011 and 2012
- Figure 4: Manufacturers’ volume shares in the milk and flavoured milk products retail market, 2011 and 2012
- The consumer
- Premium milk is gaining momentum
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- Figure 5: The change of frequency of buying milk in the last six months, January 2014
- Pasteurised milk enjoys a healthy image and associations with the original taste
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- Figure 6: Qualities associated with different types of milk, January 2014
- Milk is a popular drink to start or finish the day
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- Figure 7: Milk drinking occasions, January 2014
- Organic and freshness claims could encourage consumers to spend more
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- Figure 8: Features to encourage consumers to pay more for liquid milk, January 2014
- Concerns over the quality of milk powders remain strong
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- Figure 9: Attitudes towards milk powder, January 2014
- Detailed information of milk products needed
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- Figure 10: Attitudes towards safety, January 2014
- Imported milk remains a safer choice than domestic counterparts
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- Figure 11: Attitudes towards imported brands, January 2014
- Premium liquid milk enjoys positive perceptions
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- Figure 12: Attitudes towards pricing and gifting, January 2014
- Key issues
Issues and Insights
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- Premium milk tends to be more relevant in the gifting market for the old
- The facts
- Implications
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- Figure 13: Selected attitudes towards premium milk, by age, January 2014
- Pasteurised milk shows bright future with its fresh and healthy image
- The facts
- Implications
- Using social media and customised products to target the young
- The facts
- Implications
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- Figure 14: Attitudes towards safety, by age, January 2014
- Milk drinks for men – the uncharted water with potential
- The facts
- Implications
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- Figure 15: Selected milk drinking occasions, by gender, January 2014
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Prove it
- Trend: Man in the Mirror
- Mintel futures: Brand Intervention
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Ageing population and the new wave of baby boom drive demand up
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- Figure 16: Population structure of China, by age, 2000-12
- Figure 17: High-calcium milk powder for senior and elderly groups, Q2 2012
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- Figure 18: Happy Prince’s milk powder product for students, January 2014
- Urbanisation fuels milk consumption
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- Figure 19: Disposable income of urban residents and urban population in China, 2000-11
- Healthy lifestyles gain popularity
- Shortage of supply and growing labour costs drive the price up
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- Figure 20: Average retail prices of milk in China, 2013-14
- Scandals in the milk industry drive demand for freshness up
- Mixed feelings: opportunities and pressures faced by imported milk
- The opportunities
- The challenges
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- Figure 21: International milk prices, 2012-14
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Range extension and new production innovation remain popular
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- Figure 22: New product launches in the China milk market, by launch type, 2011-13
- Cartons become increasingly popular as package for milk products
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- Figure 23: New launches in the China milk market, by types of packaging, 2011-13
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- Figure 24: Kellogg’s Breakfast to Go product launched in 2013
- Nut and fruit gaining share among newly launched products
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- Figure 25: New launches in the China milk market, by ingredients, 2011-13
- Figure 26: Banana milk products introduced by New Hope Dairy using pasteurised milk, Q3 2013
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- Figure 27: Mengniu wheat-flavoured breakfast milk introduced in Q3 2013
Market Size, Forecast and Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Sales by segment
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- Figure 28: Retail value sales of milk and flavoured milk, by sector, 2011-13
- Figure 29: Retail volume sales of milk and flavoured milk, by sector, 2011-13
- Price increases drive the market
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- Figure 30: Retail value and volume sales of milk and flavoured milk in China, 2008-18
- Steady but slowing growth expected in the milk market
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- Figure 31: Value retail sales of milk and flavoured milk in China, 2008-18
- Figure 32: Volume retail sales of milk and flavoured milk in China, 2008-18
- Forecast methodology
Brands and Companies
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- Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd.
- China Mengniu Dairy Co., Ltd.
- Bright Dairy & Food Co., Ltd.
- Want Want China Holdings Ltd
Market Share
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- Key points
- The market is being consolidated
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- Figure 33: Manufacturers’ value shares in the milk and flavoured milk market, 2011 and 2012
- Figure 34: Manufacturers’ volume shares in the milk and flavoured milk market, 2011 and 2012
The Consumer – Usage of Milk
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- Key points
- Premium milk is gaining momentum
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- Figure 35: The change of frequency of buying milk in the last six months, January 2014
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- Figure 36: Lily Papaya Milk Drink introduced by Hung Fook Tong, Q1 2014
- Parents of young children tend to increase their spending on milk
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- Figure 37: Proportion of consumers who spent more on milk in the past six months, by age of their children, January 2014
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- Figure 38: Multiple nutrition formula milk for children from Zhuang Yuan Mu Chang, Q1 2012
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- Figure 39: Milk powder for students from Bright Dairy and Food, Q1 2014
- Pasteurised milk shows skew towards Southern China
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- Figure 40: Proportion of consumers who spent more on chilled plain milk in the past six months, by city, January 2014
- Men in their twenties tend to increase their spending on flavoured milk
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- Figure 41: Proportion of consumers who spent more on flavoured milk in the past six months, by age and gender, January 2014
- Young consumers and high earners increase their spending on skimmed milk
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- Figure 42: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months – Skimmed/semi-skimmed milk, by demographics, January 2014
- Older consumers spending more on premium milk
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- Figure 43: Consumer spending on premium milk in the past six months, by age, January 2014
- Product origin drives spending on premium milk
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- Figure 44: Proportion of consumers who spent more on premium milk, by selected consideration factors, January 2014
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- Figure 45: Miralail’s premium New Zealand UHT milk with QR code highlighting product origin, Q3 2013
The Consumer – Quality Associated with Different Types of Milk
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- Key points
- Qualities associated with different types of milk
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- Figure 46: Qualities associated with different types of milk, January 2014
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- Figure 47: Attitudes towards different types of milk, January 2014
- Pasteurised milk enjoys a healthy image and associations with the original taste
- UHT milk is considered as convenient and suitable for different occasions and users
- Additives are the key barrier for flavoured milk
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- Figure 48: Banana milk products introduced by New Hope Dairy using pasteurised milk, Q3 2013
- Milk powder is considered suitable for children and rich in nutrition
The Consumer – Milk Drinking Occasions
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- Key points
- Milk is a popular drink to start or finish the day
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- Figure 49: Milk drinking occasions, January 2014
- Breakfast is the most popular occasion
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- Figure 50: Milk drinking as part of breakfast, by features to encourage consumers to pay more for liquid milk, January 2014
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- Figure 51: Breakfast milk launched in 2013 with healthy benefit claims
- Bedtime occasions still have the potential to catch up
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- Figure 52: Got Milk? Campaign, 2014
- Dinner and lunch occasions could drive spending up
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- Figure 53: Consumers who spent more in the past six months, by occasions, January 2014
- Most consumers drink milk on more than three occasions
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- Figure 54: Repertoire analysis of drinking occasions of milk, January 2014
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- Figure 55: Kellogg’s Breakfast to Go product launched in 2013
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- Figure 56: Want Want O Pao launched in 2010
- Regional differences define consumers’ drinking habits
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- Figure 57: Milk drinking occasions, by city, January 2014
- Women more likely to drink milk on most occasions
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- Figure 58: Selected milk drinking occasions, by gender, January 2014
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- Figure 59: Emmi’s energy milk and Tine’s sports milkshake, 2013
- Flavoured milk as healthy substitute to soft drinks
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- Figure 60: Milk drinking occasions, by change in frequency of buying flavoured milk, January 2014
The Consumer – Features to Encourage Consumers to Pay More for Liquid Milk
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- Key points
- Organic and freshness claims could encourage consumers to spend more
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- Figure 61: Features to encourage consumers to pay more for liquid milk, January 2014
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- Figure 62: The chocolate flavoured milk from All Natural Promised Land D, Q2 2013
- New flavour and customisation appeal to young consumers
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- Figure 63: Selected features to encourage consumers to pay more for liquid milk, by age, January 2014
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- Figure 64: Mengniu’s campaign for its Naite product line, Q4 2013
- Product origin shows strong skew towards affluent consumers
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- Figure 65: Selected features to encourage consumers to pay more for liquid milk, by household income, January 2014
The Consumer – Attitudes towards Milk Powders
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- Key points
- Concerns over the quality of milk powder products remain strong
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- Figure 66: Attitudes towards milk powder, January 2014
- Exploiting suitable occasions helps brands to grow
- Brand image remains important
- Flavoured milk powder products are not well received
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- Figure 67: Heijiaru by Gong Xiang Agriculture Technology, Q2 2013
The Consumer – Attitudes towards Product Safety
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- Key points
- Detailed information of milk products needed
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- Figure 68: Attitudes towards safety, January 2014
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- Figure 69: Nutricia’s the safety you can see campaign, 2012
- Green and organic claims seem to be unconvincing
- Young consumers tend to be more suspicious than older counterparts
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- Figure 70: Attitudes towards safety, by age, January 2014
The Consumer – Attitudes towards Imported Brands
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- Key points
- Imported milk remains as a safer choice than domestic counterparts
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- Figure 71: Attitudes towards imported brands, January 2014
- Imported milk has the potential to reach low earners from lower tiers
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- Figure 72: Selected attitudes towards imported brands, by household income, January 2014
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- Figure 73: Selected attitudes towards imported brands, by city tier, January 2014
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- Figure 74: Agreement with the statement ‘Imported milk tastes better than domestic ones’, by city, January 2014
The Consumer – Attitudes towards Pricing and Gifting
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- Key points
- Premium liquid milk enjoys positive perceptions
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- Figure 75: Attitudes towards pricing and gifting, January 2014
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- Figure 76: Sea Cucumber Gold Milk gift pack launched by Beijing Jiatianhui, Q1 2014
- Older consumers are the potential target for premium milk products
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- Figure 77: Selected attitudes towards premium milk, by age, January 2014
Appendix – Change in Frequency of Buying Milk in Last Six Months
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- Figure 78: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months, January 2014
- Figure 79: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months – Any, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 80: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months – Chilled plain milk, by demographics, January 2014
- Figure 81: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months – Ultra-high-temperature (UHT)/long life plain milk, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 82: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months – Flavoured milk, by demographics, January 2014
- Figure 83: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months – Skimmed/semi-skimmed milk, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 84: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months – Lactose-free milk, by demographics, January 2014
- Figure 85: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months – Premium milk, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 86: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months – Milk powder, by demographics, January 2014
- Figure 87: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months, by most popular features to encourage consumers to pay more for liquid milk, January 2014
- Figure 88: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months, by next most popular features to encourage consumers to pay more for liquid milk, January 2014
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- Figure 89: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months, by most popular attitudes towards milk powder, January 2014
- Figure 90: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months, by next most popular attitudes towards milk powder, January 2014
- Figure 91: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months, by agreement with the statement ‘The milk scandals in China in recent years have put me off buying milk’, January 2014
- Figure 92: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months, by agreement with the statement ‘Milk packaging should provide detailed information about the product’, January 2014
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- Figure 93: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months, by agreement with the statement ‘Green/organic claims of domestic milk products are unconvincing’, January 2014
- Figure 94: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months, by agreement with the statement ‘Milk products from domestic brands are fresher than imported ones’, January 2014
- Figure 95: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months, by agreement with the statement ‘Imported milk is safer to drink than domestic milk’, January 2014
- Figure 96: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months, by agreement with the statement ‘Imported milk tastes better than domestic ones’, January 2014
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- Figure 97: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months, by agreement with the statement ‘There is a lack of variety of flavours available for flavoured milk’, January 2014
- Figure 98: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months, by agreement with the statement ‘Flavoured milk tastes better than plain milk’, January 2014
- Figure 99: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months, by agreement with the statement ‘Milk is overpriced’, January 2014
- Figure 100: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months, by agreement with the statement ‘Higher-priced milk is safer to drink’, January 2014
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- Figure 101: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months, by agreement with the statement ‘There is a noticeable difference in quality between premium milk and mass milk products’, January 2014
- Figure 102: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months, by agreement with the statement ‘Premium liquid milk is suitable for gifting’, January 2014
- Figure 103: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months, by agreement with the statement ‘There is a lack of premium milk products that are suitable as a gift’, January 2014
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Appendix – Attitudes towards Different Types of Milk
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- Figure 104: Attitudes towards different types of milk, January 2014
- Figure 105: Most popular attitudes towards different types of milk – Chilled plain milk, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 106: Next most popular attitudes towards different types of milk – Chilled plain milk, by demographics, January 2014
- Figure 107: Most popular attitudes towards different types of milk – Ultra-high-temperature (UHT)/long life plain milk, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 108: Next most popular attitudes towards different types of milk – Ultra-high-temperature (UHT)/long life plain milk, by demographics, January 2014
- Figure 109: Most popular attitudes towards different types of milk – Flavoured milk, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 110: Next most popular attitudes towards different types of milk – Flavoured milk, by demographics, January 2014
- Figure 111: Most popular attitudes towards different types of milk – Milk powder, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 112: Next most popular attitudes towards different types of milk – Milk powder, by demographics, January 2014
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Appendix – Milk Drinking Occasions
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- Figure 113: Milk drinking occasions, January 2014
- Figure 114: Most popular milk drinking occasions, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 115: Next most popular milk drinking occasions, by demographics, January 2014
- Figure 116: Other milk drinking occasions, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 117: Milk drinking occasions, by change in frequency of buying milk in last six months – Any, January 2014
- Figure 118: Milk drinking occasions, by change in frequency of buying milk in last six months – Chilled plain milk, January 201
- Figure 119: Milk drinking occasions, by change in frequency of buying milk in last six months – Ultra-high-temperature (UHT)/long life plain milk, January 2014
- Figure 120: Milk drinking occasions, by change in frequency of buying milk in last six months – Flavoured milk, January 2014
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- Figure 121: Milk drinking occasions, by change in frequency of buying milk in last six months – Skimmed/semi-skimmed milk, January 2014
- Figure 122: Milk drinking occasions, by change in frequency of buying milk in last six months – Lactose-free milk, January 2014
- Figure 123: Milk drinking occasions, by change in frequency of buying milk in last six months – Premium milk, January 2014
- Figure 124: Milk drinking occasions, by change in frequency of buying milk in last six months – Milk powder, January 2014
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- Figure 125: Milk drinking occasions, by agreement with the statement ‘The milk scandals in China in recent years have put me off buying milk’, January 2014
- Figure 126: Milk drinking occasions, by agreement with the statement ‘Milk packaging should provide detailed information about the product’, January 2014
- Figure 127: Milk drinking occasions, by agreement with the statement ‘Green/organic claims of domestic milk products are unconvincing’, January 2014
- Figure 128: Milk drinking occasions, by agreement with the statement ‘Milk products from domestic brands are fresher than imported ones’, January 2014
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- Figure 129: Milk drinking occasions, by agreement with the statement ‘Imported milk is safer to drink than domestic milk’, January 2014
- Figure 130: Milk drinking occasions, by agreement with the statement ‘Imported milk tastes better than domestic ones’, January 2014
- Figure 131: Milk drinking occasions, by agreement with the statement ‘There is a lack of variety of flavours available for flavoured milk’, January 2014
- Figure 132: Milk drinking occasions, by agreement with the statement ‘Flavoured milk tastes better than plain milk’, January 2014
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- Figure 133: Milk drinking occasions, by agreement with the statement ‘Milk is overpriced’, January 2014
- Figure 134: Milk drinking occasions, by agreement with the statement ‘Higher-priced milk is safer to drink’, January 2014
- Figure 135: Milk drinking occasions, by agreement with the statement ‘There is a noticeable difference in quality between premium milk and mass milk products’, January 2014
- Figure 136: Milk drinking occasions, by agreement with the statement ‘Premium liquid milk is suitable for gifting’, January 2014
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- Figure 137: Milk drinking occasions, by agreement with the statement ‘There is a lack of premium milk products that are suitable as a gift’, January 2014
- Repertoire analysis
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- Figure 138: Repertoire of milk drinking occasions, January 2014
- Figure 139: Features to encourage consumers to pay more for liquid milk, by repertoire of milk drinking occasions, January 2014
- Figure 140: Attitudes towards milk powder, by repertoire of milk drinking occasions, January 2014
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- Figure 141: General attitude towards milk, by repertoire of milk drinking occasions, January 2014
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Appendix – Features to Encourage Consumers to Pay More For Liquid Milk
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- Figure 142: Features to encourage consumers to pay more for liquid milk, January 2014
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- Figure 143: Most popular features to encourage consumers to pay more for liquid milk, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 144: Next most popular features to encourage consumers to pay more for liquid milk, by demographics, January 2014
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Appendix – Attitudes towards Milk Powder
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- Figure 145: Attitudes towards milk powder, January 2014
- Figure 146: Most popular attitudes towards milk powder, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 147: Next most popular attitudes towards milk powder, by demographics, January 2014
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Appendix – General Attitude towards Milk
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- Figure 148: General attitude towards milk, January 2014
- Figure 149: Agreement with the statement ‘The milk scandals in China in recent years have put me off buying milk’, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 150: Agreement with the statement ‘Milk packaging should provide detailed information about the product’, by demographics, January 2014
- Figure 151: Agreement with the statement ‘Green/organic claims of domestic milk products are unconvincing’, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 152: Agreement with the statement ‘Milk products from domestic brands are fresher than imported ones’, by demographics, January 2014
- Figure 153: Agreement with the statement ‘Imported milk is safer to drink than domestic milk’, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 154: Agreement with the statement ‘Imported milk tastes better than domestic ones’, by demographics, January 2014
- Figure 155: Agreement with the statement ‘There is a lack of variety of flavours available for flavoured milk’, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 156: Agreement with the statement ‘Flavoured milk tastes better than plain milk’, by demographics, January 2014
- Figure 157: Agreement with the statement ‘Milk is overpriced’, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 158: Agreement with the statement ‘Higher-priced milk is safer to drink’, by demographics, January 2014
- Figure 159: Agreement with the statement ‘There is a noticeable difference in quality between premium milk and mass milk products’, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 160: Agreement with the statement ‘Premium liquid milk is suitable for gifting’, by demographics, January 2014
- Figure 161: Agreement with the statement ‘There is a lack of premium milk products that are suitable as a gift’, by demographics, January 2014
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Appendix – Further Analysis
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- Figure 162: Target groups, January 2014
- Figure 163: Target groups, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 164: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months, by target groups, January 2014
- Figure 165: Attitudes towards different types of milk, by target groups, January 2014
- Figure 166: Milk drinking occasions, by target groups, January 2014
- Figure 167: Features to encourage consumers to pay more for liquid milk, by target groups, January 2014
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- Figure 168: Attitudes towards milk powder, by target groups, January 2014
- Figure 169: General attitude towards milk, by target groups, January 2014
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