Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Slow growth driven by data
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cellular service revenue, at current prices, 2008-18
- Prepaid gains, but remains a niche
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- Figure 2: US cellular service revenue, postpaid vs prepaid, 2013
- Smartphone-centered lifestyles drive mobile data growth
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- Figure 3: Features used on cell phone in past 30 days, January 2011-September 2013
- Data growth competes with faster speed, lower-cost fixed-point
- Connected devices waiting for carriers to pick up
- Key players
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- Figure 4: Cellular carrier, January-September 2013
- T-Mobile’s pricing revolution
- Network wars dominate airwaves
- The consumer
- Growth in highest-income group perk for pricy plans
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- Figure 5: Spend on monthly cell/wireless phone bill, by household income, January-September 2013
- Younger subscribers more likely to switch
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- Figure 6: Interest in switching carriers, and switched to new service in past 12 months, by age, December 2013
- Switchers seek cost-relief
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- Figure 7: Reasons for switching carriers, December 2013
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- How can the industry grow past universal penetration?
- The issues
- The implications
- Has the future been prepaid?
- The issues
- The implications
Trend Application
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- Trend: Guiding Choice
- Trend: Who are the Joneses?
- Mintel futures: Human
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- New competitive landscape dampened growth in 2013
- Increased data use to offset lower connection fees
- Sales and forecast
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of cellular service revenue, at current prices, 2008-18
- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of cellular service revenue, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-18
- Figure 10: US cellular subscriptions, 2008-13
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 11: Fan Chart and Forecast: Total US sales of cellular service revenue, at current prices, 2008-18
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Smartphone ownership
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- Figure 12: Smartphone ownership, by age, December 2013
- Tablets and laptops relatively untapped market
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- Figure 13: Ownership of smartphones, tablets, and laptops, December 2013
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- Figure 14: Use of laptops and tablets with cellular plans, December 2013
- Rapid shifts in phone use
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- Figure 15: Features used on cell phone in past 30 days, January 2011-September 2013
- Age and spend
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- Figure 16: Spend on monthly cell/wireless phone bill, by age, January 2013-September 2013
- Figure 17: US population by age, 2014-19
- Income and spending
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- Figure 18: Spend on monthly cell/wireless phone bill, by household income, January-September 2013
- Figure 19: Household income distribution, 2011-13
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Home internet major competitor for mobile data
- Speed
- Price
- WiFi hotspots reduce spend on mobile data
- Municipal WiFi limited threat, but hotspots at retail are spreading
- Home ISPs enhance WiFi coverage
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Prepaid continues to gain, but more slowly
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- Figure 20: US cellular service revenues, postpaid vs. prepaid, 2008-18
- Postpaid rallies on data use and connected devices
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- Figure 21: US cellular service postpaid subscriptions, 2008-13
- Prepaid gains revenue share but not subscription share
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- Figure 22: US cellular service prepaid subscriptions, 2008-13
Leading Carriers
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- Key points
- Stasis
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- Figure 23: Current carrier, January 2008-September 2013
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- Figure 24: Current carrier, by household income, January-September 2013
- Figure 25: Current carrier, by type of plan, December 2013
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- Figure 26: Current carrier, by recent change in service, December 2013
- Top tier even more dominant in total connections
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- Figure 27: Retail connections, by carrier, December 2012-December 2013
Innovations and Innovators
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- Key points
- The “Uncarrier” shakes up plan design
- Sprint charts its own course with Framily pricing
- New upgrade options lure customers with the very latest devices
- Carriers want to pay your termination fees
- Sponsored content opens up supply-side revenue stream
- Internet-connected autos represent ongoing opportunity
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview of the brand landscape
- T-Mobile doubles down on support for Un-carrier initiatives
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- Figure 28: T-Mobile TV ad, “No Contract”, 2014
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- Figure 29: T-Mobile TV ad, “Pipes”, 2014
- Figure 30: AT&T TV ad, “CatchJeremy.com, Day 3”, 2013
- AT&T’s kids continue to win fans
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- Figure 31: AT&T TV ad, “It’s Not Complicated – Pet Turkey,” 2013
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- Figure 32: AT&T TV ad, “Hours,” 2014
- Verizon: “It’s the network, stupid”
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- Figure 33: Verizon Wireless TV ad, “Map Gallery,” 2013
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- Figure 34: Verizon Wireless TV ad, “48 Hours,” 2013
- Sprint focuses on people
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- Figure 35: Sprint TV ad, “Framily Plan: Band,” 2013
- Value carriers downplay differences, emphasize price
- Cricket and Straight Talk suggest all mobile service is the same
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- Figure 36: Cricket Wireless TV ad, “Half is More,” 2013
- Virgin Mobile declares National Breakup Day
Attitudes to Plans and Service
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- Key points
- Confusion reigns
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- Figure 37: Finding cell phone plans confusing, by age, January-September 2013
- Few prefer contract plans
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- Figure 38: Attitudes to cell phone plans, by age, December 2013
- Attitudes to internet service
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- Figure 39: Attitudes to internet service, by age, December 2013
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- Figure 40: Attitudes to internet service, by plans to change service, December 2013
- Limited interest in docking stations
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- Figure 41: Preference for landline use, by age, January 2013-September 2013
- Figure 42: Interest in docking stations, by age, December 2013
- Near-term switchers see value in docks
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- Figure 43: Interest in docking stations, by plans to change service, December 2013
- Prepaid vs postpaid
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- Figure 44: Type of plan: Prepaid vs contract, by household income, December 2013
- Two thirds on group plans
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- Figure 45: Type of plan: family vs individual, by age, January 2013-September 2013
- Figure 46: Type of plan: family vs individual, by household income, January 2013-September 2013
- Use of laptops with mobile plans
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- Figure 47: Use of laptops with cellular plans, by age, December 2013
- Use of tablets with mobile plans
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- Figure 48: Use of tablets with cellular plans, by age, December 2013
Incidence and Interest in Switching
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- Key points
- Sticking with the plan
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- Figure 49: Relationship between quality of service and interest in switching, by age, January-September 2013
- Younger adults switch more frequently
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- Figure 50: Switched to new service in past 12 months, by age, December 2013
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- Figure 51: Tenure at current carrier, by age, January-September 2013
- Figure 52: Interest in changing carriers, by age, December 2013
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- Figure 53: Tenure at current carrier, by household income, January-September 2013
- Prepaid subscribers like exiting
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- Figure 54: Switched to new service in past 12 months, by type of plan, December 2013
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- Figure 55: Interest in changing carriers, by type of plan, December 2013
- Changers ready to move again
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- Figure 56: Interest in changing carriers, by recent change in service, December 2013
- 18-44s more confident about carrier selection
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- Figure 57: Carriers under consideration for future use, by age, December 2013
Reasons for Switching
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- Key points
- Price top reason for switching
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- Figure 58: Reasons for switching carriers, by age, December 2013
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- Figure 59: Reasons for switching carriers, by type of plan, November 2013
- Sentiments related to loyalty
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- Figure 60: Reasons for not switching carriers, by age, December 2013
- Near-term switchers seek customer support
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- Figure 61: Reasons for switching carriers, by plans to change service, December 2013
Plans, Attitudes and Switching Sentiment by Carrier
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- Key points
- Verizon and TracFone customers happiest with service
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- Figure 62: Interest in changing carriers, by carrier, December 2013
- Figure 63: Reasons to not switch carriers, by carrier, December 2013
- Speed still an issue for Sprint
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- Figure 64: Attitudes to cellular internet service, by carrier, December 2013
- Tier one subscribers seek cost-relief, tier two better reception
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- Figure 65: Type of plan: Prepaid vs contract, by carrier, December 2013
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- Figure 66: Reasons for switching carriers, by carrier, December 2013
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Overview
- Second and third tier more successful with multicultural groups
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- Figure 67: Cellular carrier subscribed to, by race and Hispanic origin, January-September 2013
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- Figure 68: Type of plan: family vs individual, by race and Hispanic origin, January-September 2013
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- Figure 69: Switched to new service in past 12 months, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2013
- Figure 70: Tenure (years) at current carrier, by race and Hispanic origin, January-September 2013
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- Figure 71: Spend on monthly bill, by race and Hispanic origin, January-September 2013
Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Responses by age
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- Figure 72: Current carrier, by age, January-September 2013
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- Figure 73: Current carrier in online survey, by age, December 2013
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- Figure 74: Type of plan: Prepaid vs contract, by age, December 2013
- Responses by household income
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- Figure 75: Current carrier in online survey, by household income, December 2013
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- Figure 76: Family plan use across multiple households, by household income, January-September 2013
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- Figure 77: Interest in changing carriers, by household income, December 2013
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- Figure 78: Attitudes to cell phone plans, by household income, December 2013
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- Figure 79: Interest in docking stations, by household income, December 2013
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- Figure 80: Attitudes to internet service, by household income, December 2013
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- Figure 81: Switched to new service in past 12 months, by household income, December 2013
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- Figure 82: Reasons for not switching, by household income, December 2013
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- Figure 83: Use of laptops with cellular plans, by household income, December 2013
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- Figure 84: Attitudes to cell phone service, by household income, January-September 2013
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- Figure 85: Carriers under consideration for future use, by household income, December 2013
- Responses by race/Hispanic origin
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- Figure 86: Cell phone ownership, by race and Hispanic origin, January-September 2013
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- Figure 87: Tenure (years) at current carrier, by race and Hispanic origin, January-September 2013
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- Figure 88: Carriers under consideration for future use, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2013
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- Figure 89: Attitudes to plans, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2013
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- Figure 90: Type of plan: Prepaid vs contract, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2013
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- Figure 91: Attitudes to cell phone plans, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2013
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- Figure 92: Reasons for not switching, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2013
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- Figure 93: Reasons for switching carriers, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
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- Figure 94: Use of laptops with cellular plans, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2013
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- Figure 95: Family plan use across multiple households, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2013-September 2013
- Responses by carrier
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- Figure 96: Attitudes to cell phone plans, by carrier, December 2013
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- Figure 97: Switched to new service in past 12 months, by carrier, December 2013
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- Figure 98: Use of laptops with cellular plans, by carrier, December 2013
- Responses by type of plan
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- Figure 99: Attitudes to internet service, by type of plan, December 2013
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- Figure 100: Reasons for not switching, by type of plan, December 2013
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- Figure 101: Carriers under consideration for future use, by type of plan, December 2013
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- Figure 102: Use of tablets with cellular plans, by type of plan, December 2013
- Responses by intent to change service
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- Figure 103: Attitudes to cell phone plans, by plans to change service, December 2013
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- Figure 104: Use of laptops with cellular plans, by plans to change service, December 2013
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- Figure 105: Use of tablets with cellular plans, by plans to change service, December 2013
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- Figure 106: Type of plan: Prepaid vs contract, by plans to change service, December 2013
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- Figure 107: Current carrier, by plans to change service, December 2013
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- Figure 108: Reasons for not switching, by plans to change service, December 2013
Appendix – Trade Associations
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