Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- The market
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- Figure 1: Total U.S unit sales and fan chart forecast of newly purchased light-vehicles, 2008-18
- Market factors
- Aging U.S. vehicle fleet is positive force for new car sales
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- Figure 2: Average age of total light vehicles, 2002-13
- American drivers continue to drive fewer miles than peak period
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- Figure 3: Total vehicle miles traveled, 1970-2013
- Stabilizing housing market helps boost car sales
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- Figure 4: Median existing home prices vs. new light-vehicle sales, 2000-12
- Retail channels
- Total U.S. new car dealership falls for 2013
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- Figure 5: Number of dealerships selling new cars, January 2003-January 2013
- Key players
- Top 11 automakers account for 95% of 2013 vehicle sales
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- Figure 6: Largest automotive original equipment manufacturers in the U.S., by new car market share, August, 2013-year to date
- The consumer
- The majority who intend to buy another car plan to buy a brand-new car
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- Figure 7: Future vehicle purchase: expectation of next vehicle bought new, used, CPO, August 2013
- 26% of those who intend to purchase a new vehicle plan to in the next year or sooner
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- Figure 8: When the next new vehicle will be purchased, by age, May 2012-June 2013
- Complimentary service care and long warranties most highly sought after purchasing perks among new car intenders
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- Figure 9: Incentives, warranties, rebates and financing offers that help persuade purchase of brand new car, August 2013
- Millennials significantly influenced by smartphone integration
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- Figure 10: Influential audio and tech features when considering next brand new car, by generations, August 2013
- Blind-spot warning, backup cameras, highly influential safety features
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- Figure 11: Influential safety features when considering next brand new car, August 2013
- Majority interested in hybrid technology when they next purchase
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- Figure 12: Level of interest in emerging powertrains and vehicle segments when purchasing next brand new car, Any interesting, August 2013
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- How can carmakers persuade city dwellers to own new cars?
- The issues
- The implications
- How can carmakers convince more Millennials to purchase a new car instead of used?
- The issues
- The implications
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Immaterial World
- Trend: Greenfluencers
- Mintel Futures: Generation Next
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- U.S. vehicle sales to reach 15.8 million units in 2013, highest volumes since 2007
- Sales and forecast of market
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- Figure 13: Total U.S unit sales and forecast of new light-vehicles, 2008-18
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 14: Fan chart forecast of total U.S unit sales of new light-vehicles, 2008-18
Market Segmentation
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- Key points
- New cars vs. trucks
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- Figure 15: U.S. unit sales of new cars vs. light-trucks, 1980-2012
- Light-trucks
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- Figure 16: U.S. unit sales and forecast of new light-trucks, 2007-12
- Figure 17: Top 15 light-truck models, by volume, August, 2012-13 to year to date
- Cars
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- Figure 18: U.S. unit sales of new cars, 2007-12
- Figure 19: Top 15 passenger car models, by volume, August, 2012-13 to year to date
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Aging U.S. vehicle fleet provides challenges for new car sales growth
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- Figure 20: Average age of cars, light-trucks, and total light vehicles, 2002-13
- American drivers continue to drive fewer miles than peak period, weakening consumer demand
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- Figure 21: Vehicle registrations, aggregate automotive fuel consumption, and total vehicle miles of travel as indexed to 1987 (1987= 1.0), 1960-2011
- Access to credit vitally important to new car sales
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- Figure 22: Average credit score of new car buyers, 2008-13
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- Figure 23: Average new and used vehicle financing term, 2013
- Stabilizing housing market to positively impact new auto sales
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- Figure 24: Median existing home prices vs. new light-vehicle sales, 2000-12
- Figure 25: Housing starts vs. light-truck sales, 2000-12
- Mass affluence, disposable income and consumer confidence, impact new car sales
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- Figure 26: Historical median household income, adjusted for inflation, 1980-2012
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- Figure 27: Real disposable personal income per capita (2009 adjusted dollars), 2008-13
- Figure 28: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, 2007-13
- Unemployment impacts new car sales
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- Figure 29: Unemployment and underemployment rates, 2007-13
- High fuel prices shift consumer purchasing preferences
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- Figure 30: All grades all formulations retail gasoline prices, dollars per gallon, 2000-13
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- Figure 31: Gasoline regular grade retail price including taxes U.S. average dollars per gallon, 2012-14 (forecast)
- Increased product cadence will boost new car demand
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- Figure 32: Average new car showroom age and replacement rate, 2007-16
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Declines in vehicle miles travelled spurred by changes in lifestyles
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- Figure 33: Total vehicle miles traveled (million miles), 1970-2013
- Increased urbanization cuts into automobile dependency
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- Figure 34: U.S. city and suburb population growth, 2000-12
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- Figure 35: Most often form of transit used for work commute, by metro area, 2009
- Car sharing a potential disruptive force to automobile ownership
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- Figure 36: Car use, by trip purpose, average distance and time, 2009
Leading Manufacturers and Retailers
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- Key points
- Manufacturer overview
- Top 11 automakers account for 95% of 2013 vehicle sales
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- Figure 37: Largest automotive original equipment manufacturers in the U.S., by new car market share, August 2013-year to date
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- Figure 38: Fastest-growing automotive brands, by percentage volume change, August 2012-13 year to date
- Number of U.S. new car dealerships falls in 2013
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- Figure 39: Number of dealerships selling new cars, January 2003-January 2013
- New car retailing is a highly competitive and fragmented market
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- Figure 40: Top 20 dealership groups in the U.S., by total number of new vehicles sold, 2012
- A note on the manufacturer and dealers relationship
- Manufacturer profiles
- General Motors Company
- Overview
- Sales and market share
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- Figure 41: General Motors market share and unit sales, 2002-12
- Service and parts
- Innovation
- Ford Motor Company
- Overview
- Sales and market share
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- Figure 42: Ford market share and unit sales, 2002-12
- Service and parts
- Toyota Motor Sales USA, Inc.
- Overview
- Sales and market share
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- Figure 43: Toyota market share and unit sales, 2002-12
- Service and parts
- Environmentalism
- Chrysler Group, LLC.
- Overview
- Sales and market share
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- Figure 44: Chrysler market share and unit sales, 2002-12
- Service and parts
- American Honda Motor Co. Inc.
- Overview
- Sales and market share
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- Figure 45: Honda market share and unit sales, 2002-12
- Service and parts
- Commitment to American jobs
- Nissan North America Inc.
- Overview
- Sales, service, and market share
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- Figure 46: Nissan market share and unit sales, 2002-12
- Hyundai Motor America
- Overview
- Sales and market share
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- Figure 47: Hyundai market share and unit sales, 2002-12
- Service and parts
- Volkswagen Group of America
- Overview
- Sales and market share
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- Figure 48: Volkswagen market share and unit sales, 2002-12
- Service and parts
- Innovation
- Kia Motors America Inc.
- Overview
- Sales and market share
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- Figure 49: Kia market share and unit sales, 2002-12
- Service and parts
- Subaru of America, Inc.
- Overview
- Sales and market share
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- Figure 50: Subaru market share and unit sales, 2002-12
- Service and parts
- Innovation
- BMW of North America, Inc.
- Overview
- Sales and market share
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- Figure 51: BMW market share and unit sales, 2002-12
- Service and parts
- Innovation
- Mercedes-Benz USA (MBUSA)
- Overview
- Sales and market share
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- Figure 52: Mercedes-Benz market share and unit sales, 2002-12
- Service and parts
- Innovation
- Mazda North American Operations
- Overview
- Sales and market share
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- Figure 53: Mazda’s market share and unit sales, 2002-12
- Service and parts
- Innovation
Innovations and Innovators
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- Honda introduces first in-car vacuum cleaner in carmaker’s Odyssey minivan
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- Figure 54: 2014 Honda Odyssey with HondaVAC™
- Subaru’s EyeSight brings advanced forward-collision warning to the masses
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- Figure 55: Subaru EyeSight Overview, 2013
- Redesigned Toyota Corolla becomes most affordable car with LED headlights
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- Figure 56: 2014 Toyota Corolla LED headlights, 2013
Marketing Strategies
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- Strategy: Portray product as a part of the American tapestry
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- Figure 57: Chevrolet Silverado “Strong” TV Spot, July 2013
- Strategy: Tie product to youthful reinvention
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- Figure 58: Toyota Corolla “Elevate” TV spot, September 2013
- Strategy: Tout no-charge maintenance plan
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- Figure 59: Volkswagen Feeling Carefree Commercial, September 2013
- Strategy: Comparison charts help associate vehicle as bargain
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- Figure 60: 2013 Chevrolet Traverse Dare to Compare, Acquisition Mailing, May 2013
- Figure 61: Chevrolet Malibu may the best car win, May 2013
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- Figure 62: Chrysler Town & Country Sales Event, May 2013
- Strategy: Offer incentives to test drive new modes
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- Figure 63: Showroom introduction sales event from Heritage Cadillac, acquisition mailing, April 2013
- Figure 64: 2013 Toyota Avalon, acquisition mailing, June 2013
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- Figure 65: Teddy Nissan $50 gift card offer, acquisition mailing, June 2013
- Figure 66: 2014 Mazda6 low financing and test drive incentive, acquisition email, May 2013
- Strategy: Breakdown monthly, weekly…even daily cost of ownership
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- Figure 67: Honda Civic DX Lease breakdown, May 2013
- Strategy: Offer special incentives to graduating Millennials
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- Figure 68: Scion, 500 More reasons, June 2013
- Figure 69: Acura, Get used to life off campus, June 2013
Model Year of Most Recently Acquired Vehicle
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- Key points
- Average household’s most recently acquired car: 2006 model year
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- Figure 70: Model year of most recently acquired vehicle, August 2013
- Households with luxury cars more likely to have newer vehicles
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- Figure 71: Model year of most recently acquired vehicle, by luxury vs. non-luxury car owner, August 2013
- Households intending to buy a brand new car average a 2008 model year as most recently acquired
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- Figure 72: Model year of most recently acquired vehicle, by intention to buy a brand new car, luxury vs. non-luxury, August 2013
Buyers Considering a Brand New Car For Next Vehicle
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- Key points
- Three fourths of respondents plan to buy a car: majority plans to buy a brand new car
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- Figure 73: Future vehicle purchase: expectation of next vehicle bought new, used, CPO, by gender, August 2013
- Households earning $75K-99.9K are the tipping point for majority new car intenders
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- Figure 74: Future vehicle purchase: expectation of next vehicle bought new, used, CPO, by household income, August 2013
- More than 80% of Millennials intend to purchase a car, but only about a third plan to purchase a brand new car
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- Figure 75: Future vehicle purchase: expectation of next vehicle bought new, used, CPO, by generations, August 2013
- Households with two or three dependent children more likely to expect to purchase another vehicle
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- Figure 76: Future vehicle purchase: expectation of next vehicle bought new, used, CPO, by presence and number of children in household, August 2013
- Households that have purchased a newer vehicle more likely to say they plan to purchase new again
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- Figure 77: Future vehicle purchase: expectation of next vehicle bought new, used, CPO, by model year of most recently acquired vehicle, August 2013
- Luxury brand owners more likely to say they will buy or lease a new vehicle at next purchase
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- Figure 78: Future vehicle purchase: expectation of next vehicle bought new, used, CPO, by luxury vs. non-luxury car owner, August 2013
When Will The Next New Vehicle Be Purchased
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- Key points
- 26% of those who intend to purchase a new vehicle plan to in the next year or less
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- Figure 79: When the next new vehicle will be purchased, by age, May 2012-June 2013
- Larger household sizes more likely to purchase a vehicle sooner
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- Figure 80: When the next new vehicle will be purchased, by household size, May 2012-June 2013
- Figure 81: When the next new vehicle will be purchased, by presence of children in household, May 2012-June 2013
Total Amount Spent on Purchase or Lease of Most Recently Acquired New Car
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- Key points
- Average spend on most recently purchased new car: $20K
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- Figure 82: Total amount spent on most recently acquired new car, by age, May 2012-June 2013
- Larger households don’t spend appreciably more than smaller households on new vehicle purchases
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- Figure 83: Total amount spent on most recently acquired new car, by household size, May 2012-June 2013
- Figure 84: Total amount spent on most recently acquired new car, by presence of children in household, May 2012-June 2013
- Majority of new car financing based on a 60-month loan, or longer
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- Figure 85: Length of total financing (most recently acquired vehicle), by age, May 2012-June 2013
- Presence of children means longer financing terms
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- Figure 86: Length of total financing (most recently acquired vehicle), by presence of children in household, May 2012-June 2013
Buyers Who Intend to Purchase a Brand New Luxury Car
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- Among new car intenders, nearly 43% expect to buy a luxury brand
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- Figure 87: Expectation of buying a brand new luxury car, August 2013
Effective Incentives, Warranties, Rebates, and Financing Offers For New Car Purchase Intenders
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- Key points
- Complimentary service care and long warranties most highly sought after
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- Figure 88: Incentives, warranties, rebates and financing offers that help persuade purchase of brand new car, by gender, August 2013
- Presence of children heightens interest in free road-side assistance
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- Figure 89: Incentives, warranties, rebates and financing offers that help persuade purchase of brand new car, by presence of children in household, August 2013
- Seniors look more toward customer loyalty cash, and cash-back offers
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- Figure 90: Incentives, warranties, rebates and financing offers that help persuade purchase of brand new car, by generations, August 2013
- Among new car intenders, those looking at mainstream brands desire more budget-minded perks
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- Figure 91: Incentives, warranties, rebates and financing offers that help persuade purchase of brand new car, by intention to buy a brand new car, luxury vs. non-luxury, August 2013
- Older respondents look more toward rebate offers and warranty
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- Figure 92: Interest in complimentary perks vs. rebates vs. financing vs. warranties, by generations, August 2013
- Those expecting to purchase a new luxury car seek complimentary services
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- Figure 93: Interest in complimentary perks vs. rebates vs. financing vs. warranties, by expectation of buying a brand new luxury car at next purchase, August 2013
Most Influential Factors When Considering Brand New Car
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- Styling and comfort features
- Key points
- Power equipment, exterior and interior styling, seen as most influential vehicle attributes
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- Figure 94: Influential styling and comfort features when considering next new car, by gender, August 2013
- Those without children more influenced by styling, color and upholstery features
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- Figure 95: Influential styling and comfort features when considering next new car, by presence of children in household, August 2013
- Baby Boomers more likely to be influenced by comfort and styling features when compared to Millennials
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- Figure 96: Influential styling and comfort features when considering next new car, by generations, August 2013
- Those who own older vehicles more influenced by power equipment and upholstery selection
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- Figure 97: Influential styling and comfort features when considering next new car, by model year of most recently acquired vehicle, August 2013
- New car luxury intenders more influenced by interior trims, and upholsteries
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- Figure 98: Influential styling and comfort features when considering next new car, by expectation of buying a brand new luxury car at next purchase, August 2013
- Audio and technology features
- Key points
- Automatic climate control, Bluetooth most influential tech/audio features
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- Figure 99: Influential audio and tech features when considering next brand new car, by gender, August 2013
- Millennials significantly more influenced by touchscreens and smartphone integration in their next new car
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- Figure 100: Influential audio and tech features when considering next brand new car, by generations, August 2013
- Those who own newer cars more influenced by latest tech/audio innovations
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- Figure 101: Influential audio and tech features when considering next brand new car, by model year of most recently acquired vehicle, August 2013
- New luxury car intenders more likely to be influenced be tech/audio features
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- Figure 102: Influential audio and tech features when considering next brand new car, by expectation of buying a brand new luxury car at next purchase, August 2013
- Safety features
- Key points
- Blind-sport warning, backup cameras, highly influential safety features
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- Figure 103: Influential safety features when considering next brand new car, by gender, August 2013
- Millennials less influenced by safety features when compared to Baby Boomers
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- Figure 104: Influential safety features when considering next brand new car, by generations, August 2013
- New luxury car intenders more influenced by lane departure warning and parallel parking systems
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- Figure 105: Influential safety features when considering next brand new car, by expectation of buying a brand new luxury car at next purchase, August 2013
Interest in Emerging Powertrains and Vehicle Segments
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- Key points
- Crossovers, spacious compacts, and hybrids garner interest among new car intenders
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- Figure 106: Level of interest in emerging powertrains and vehicle segments when purchasing next brand new car, August 2013
- Men more interested in sports-tuned suspension, turbocharged engines, capable towing/off-roading and diesel power
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- Figure 107: Any interest in emerging powertrains and vehicle segments when purchasing next brand new car, by gender, August 2013
- Men/women 18-34 more interested in plug-in hybrids and electric-powered vehicles
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- Figure 108: Any interest in emerging powertrains and vehicle segments when purchasing next brand new car, by gender and age, August 2013
- Wealthier households less interested in plug-ins, hybrids, and small vehicles
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- Figure 109: Any interest in emerging powertrains and vehicle segments when purchasing next brand new car, by household income, August 2013
- Millennials far more interested in new emerging vehicle segments and powertrains
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- Figure 110: Any interest in emerging powertrains and vehicle segments when purchasing next brand new car, by generations, August 2013
- Older Millennials significantly more interested in crossovers and plug-in hybrids
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- Figure 111: Any interest in emerging powertrains and vehicle segments when purchasing next brand new car, younger Millennials vs. older Millennials, August 2013
- New luxury car intenders more interested in minivans, station wagons, and diesel power
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- Figure 112: Any interest in emerging powertrains and vehicle segments when purchasing next brand new car, by intention to buy a brand new car, luxury vs. non-luxury, August 2013
- Men very interested in sports-tuned suspension and turbocharged engines. Women very interested in compact vehicles.
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- Figure 113: Very interested in emerging powertrains and vehicle segments when purchasing next brand new car, by gender, August 2013
- New luxury car intenders very interested in most emerging powertrain and body styles
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- Figure 114: Very interested in emerging powertrains and vehicle segments when purchasing next brand new car, by intention to buy a brand new car, luxury vs. non-luxury, August 2013
Sources Expected To Use When Purchasing Next New Car
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- Key points
- Websites, test drives most important resources for new car shoppers
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- Figure 115: Sources expected to use when purchasing next brand new vehicle, August 2013
- Women significantly more likely to utilize Consumer Reports
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- Figure 116: Sources expected to use when purchasing next brand new vehicle, by gender, August 2013
- Wealthier respondents more likely to utilize Cars.com, Edmunds.com
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- Figure 117: Sources expected to use when purchasing next brand new vehicle, by household income, August 2013
- Those with young children more likely to visit Cars.com, Autotrader.com, and Turecar.com
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- Figure 118: Sources expected to use when purchasing next brand new vehicle, by presence of children in household, August 2013
- Younger generations more inclined to search online for information on new cars before making a purchase
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- Figure 119: Sources expected to use when purchasing next brand new vehicle, by generations, August 2013
Most Important Ratings or Pricing Information
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- Key points
- Total “out-the-door” price and combined MPG rating seen as most important ratings/pricing information
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- Figure 120: Importance of industry ratings and pricing attributes when selecting next brand new car, by gender, August 2013
- Older women lean more heavily on Consumer Reports reliability data, combined fuel economy
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- Figure 121: Importance of industry ratings and pricing attributes when selecting next brand new car, by gender and age, August 2013
- Wealthier respondents more concerned by resale values
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- Figure 122: Importance of industry ratings and pricing attributes when selecting next brand new car, by household income, August 2013
- Baby Boomers more considerate of reliability, fuel economy, safety ratings, and resale values when compared to Millennials
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- Figure 123: Importance of industry ratings and pricing attributes when selecting next brand new car, by generations, August 2013
Perceptions of Major Automotive Makes
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- Kia, Hyundai, Chevrolet, Ford viewed as brands with inexpensive vehicles
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- Figure 124: Perceptions of major automotive makes, inexpensive vs. expensive, August 2013
- Honda, Toyota, Nissan, and Volkswagen seen as building high-quality vehicles
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- Figure 125: Perceptions of major automotive makes, high quality vs. low quality, August 2013
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Whites and Asians are the likeliest race/ethnic groups intending to purchase a brand new car
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- Figure 126: Future vehicle purchase: expectation of next vehicle bought new, used, CPO, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2013
- Hispanics and Blacks/African Americans more persuaded by complimentary road-side assistance and low financing rates
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- Figure 127: Incentives, warranties, rebates and financing offers that help persuade purchase of brand new car, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2013
- Black/African Americans more interested in remote start and sunroofs
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- Figure 128: Influential styling and comfort features when considering next new car, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2013
- Blacks/African Americans more interested in a wide array of tech features
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- Figure 129: Influential audio and tech features when considering next brand new car, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2013
- No significant differences by race/ethnic group in influence of safety features
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- Figure 130: Influential safety features when considering next brand new car, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2013
- Hispanics and Black/African Americans more interested in hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and electric vehicles
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- Figure 131: Any interest in emerging powertrains and vehicle segments when purchasing next brand new car, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2013
- Hispanics and Black/African Americans more likely than Whites to use classified ad websites
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- Figure 132: Sources expected to use when purchasing next brand new vehicle, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2013
- Blacks/African Americans most concerned with monthly payment
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- Figure 133: Importance of industry ratings and pricing attributes when selecting next brand new car, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2013
Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Model year of most recently acquired vehicle
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- Figure 134: Model year of most recently acquired vehicle, by generations, August 2013
- Most influential factors when considering brand new car
- Styling and comfort features
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- Figure 135: Influential styling and comfort features when considering next new car, by household income, August 2013
- Length of financing on most recently acquired new car
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- Figure 136: Length of total financing (most recently acquired), by number of people in the household, May 2012-June 2013
- Most influential factors when considering brand new car
- Safety features
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- Figure 137: Influential safety features when considering next brand new car, by presence of children in household, August 2013
- Interest in emerging powertrains and vehicle segments
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- Figure 138: Very interested in emerging powertrains and vehicle segments when purchasing next brand new car, younger Millennials vs. older Millennials, August 2013
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- Figure 139: Very interested in emerging powertrains and vehicle segments when purchasing next brand new car, by generations, August 2013
- Sources expected to use when purchasing next new car
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- Figure 140: Sources expected to use when purchasing next brand new vehicle, by gender and age, August 2013
- Race and Hispanic origin
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- Figure 141: Importance of industry ratings and pricing attributes when selecting next brand new car, by intention to buy a brand new car, luxury vs. non-luxury, August 2013
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- Figure 142: Model year of most recently acquired vehicle, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2013
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- Figure 143: Very interested in emerging powertrains and vehicle segments when purchasing next brand new car, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2013
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- Figure 144: When the next new vehicle will be purchased, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012-June 2013
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- Figure 145: Consumer attitudes and opinions about their cars, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012-June 2013
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- Figure 146: Total amount spent on most recently acquired new car, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012-June 2013
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- Figure 147: Length of total financing (most recently acquired), by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012-June 2013
- Consumer attitudes and opinions about their cars
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- Figure 148: Consumer attitudes and opinions about their cars, by gender, May 2012-June 2013
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- Figure 149: Consumer attitudes and opinions about their cars, by attitudes to U.S. vs. foreign auto manufacturers, May 2012-June 2013
Appendix – Trade Associations
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