Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
-
- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
-
- The market
- Category sales remain stagnant
-
- Figure 1: Total U.S. sales and forecast of bread, at current prices, 2008-18
- Market segmentation
- Fresh loaf bread leads sales, tortillas and bakery offerings post strongest growth
-
- Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, by segment, at current prices, 2011 and 2013
- Leading companies
- Grupo Bimbo represents more than one quarter of category sales
-
- Figure 3: MULO sales of bread, by top five leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
- Innovation
- Bread products attract attention through claims
-
- Figure 4: Bread launches, by top five claims (plus gluten-free), 2008-13*
- The consumer
- Bread use at a five-year low
-
- Figure 5: Number of loaves/packages eaten by household in last seven days, 2008-13
- Sandwiches lead uses for bread, wider range needed
-
- Figure 6: How bread is used, June-July 2013
- Health and variety are top of mind for nonusers
-
- Figure 7: Top five reasons for not using bread, July 2013
- What we think
Issues and Insights
-
- How should the category address the topic of health?
- Issues
- Insight: promote products as meeting essential consumer needs.
- How can the industry keep bread fresh?
- Issues
- Insight: expand flavors and formats to get consumers thinking beyond the sandwich.
- How can the category compete with bakery offerings?
- Issues
- Insight: boosting product attributes and promoting freshness will mitigate bakery impact.
Trend Applications
-
- Trend: Sense of the Intense
- Trend: Hungry Planet
- Mintel Futures: Brand Intervention
Market Size and Forecast
-
- Key points
- Category sales remain stagnant
- Sales of bread
-
- Figure 8: Total U.S. sales and forecast of bread, at current prices, 2008-18
- Figure 9: Total U.S. sales and forecast of bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-18
- Fan chart forecast
-
- Figure 10: Total market sales and fan chart forecast of bread, at current prices, 2008-18
Market Drivers
-
- Key points
- Expansion of gluten-free offerings may benefit bread category
- Foodservice turns the focus on the bun
Segment Performance
-
- Key points
- Fresh loaf bread leads sales, tortillas and bakery offerings gain
-
- Figure 11: Purchase decisions, by bread usage, June-July 2013
- Sales of bread, by segment
-
- Figure 12: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, by segment, at current prices, 2011 and 2013
- Fresh loaf bread sales fall 4% from 2008-13 to $9.9 billion
- Sales of fresh loaf bread
-
- Figure 13: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of fresh loaf bread, at current prices, 2008-18
- Fresh roll, bun, and croissant sales grow 12% from 2008-13, level off
-
- Figure 14: Croissants, January 2012-March 2013
- Sales of fresh rolls, buns, and croissants
-
- Figure 15: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of fresh rolls, buns, and croissants, at current prices, 2008-18
- Sales of tortillas and taco shells grow 20% to reach $2.6 billion in 2013
- Sales of tortillas and taco shells
-
- Figure 16: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of tortillas and taco shells, at current prices, 2008-18
- Bagel, bialy, and English muffin sales grow 3% to reach $1.7 billion
-
- Figure 17: Bagels, January 2012-March 2013
-
- Figure 18: English muffins, January 2012-March 2013
- Sales of fresh bagels, bialys, and English muffins
-
- Figure 19: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of fresh bagels, bialys, and English muffins, at current prices, 2008-18
- Refrigerated/frozen bread sales struggle, fall 13% from 2008-13
- Sales of refrigerated/frozen bread products
-
- Figure 20: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen bread products, at current prices, 2008-18
- Sales of bread at in-store bakeries grow 20% to reach $4.2 billion
- Sales of in-store bakeries
-
- Figure 21: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2008-18
Retail Channels
-
- Key points
- “Other” outlets gain on supermarkets
- Sales of bread, by channel
-
- Figure 22: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, by channel, at current prices, 2011-13
- Natural channel sales grow 19%
- Sales of bread in the natural channel
-
- Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of bread, at current prices, 2011-13*
- Figure 24: Natural supermarket sales of bread at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-13*
- Natural channel sales of bread by segment
-
- Figure 25: Natural supermarket sales of bread, by segment, 2011 and 2013*
- Brands of note
- Natural channel sales of bread by organic
-
- Figure 26: Natural supermarket sales of bread, by organic, 2010 and 2012*
- Natural channel sales of bread by gluten-free
-
- Figure 27: Natural supermarket sales of bread, by gluten-free, 2011 and 2013*
Leading Companies and Brand Analysis
-
- Key points
- Strong acquisition activity leads to big gains/losses
- Grupo Bimbo works through growing pains
- Flowers Blooms
- King’s Hawaiian grows by nearly 25%
- Hostess ceases operations
- Private label represents 22.7% of sales
- Manufacturer sales of bread
-
- Figure 28: MULO sales of bread, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
- Most fresh loaf bread brands gain from Hostess losses
- MULO sales of fresh loaf bread
-
- Figure 29: MULO sales of fresh loaf bread, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
- King’s Hawaiian grows sales in the segment by 27.4%
- MULO sales of fresh rolls, buns, and croissants
-
- Figure 30: MULO sales of fresh rolls, buns, and croissants, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
- Gruma’s Mission and Guerrero brands dominate and grow sales of tortillas
- MULO sales of tortillas and taco shells
-
- Figure 31: MULO sales of tortillas and taco shells*, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
- Grupo Bimbo represents 75.4% of bagel, bialy, and English muffin sales
- MULO sales of bagels, bialys, and English muffins
-
- Figure 32: MULO sales of bagels, bialys, and English muffins, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
- Refrigerated/frozen segment can find success in health/convenience
- MULO sales of refrigerated/frozen bread, bagels, bialys and English muffins
-
- Figure 33: sales of refrigerated/frozen bread, bagels, bialys and English muffins, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
Innovations and Innovators
-
- Product launches down
-
- Figure 34: Bread launches, by launch type, 2008-12*
- Category attracts attention through claims
-
- Figure 35: Bread launches, by top 10 claims, 2009-13*
- Spicing up the category through flavor innovation
- Encouraging increased purchase occasion through product differentiation
- New textures
- New formats
- Encouraging occasion-specific use
- Regional/specialty offerings
- Health innovation
- Added nutrients, seeds, ancient grains
Social Media
-
- Key points
- Key social media metrics
-
- Figure 36: Key brand metrics, Bread, August 2013
- Market overview
- Brand usage and awareness
-
- Figure 37: Usage and awareness of selected bread brands, July 2013
- Interaction with brands
-
- Figure 38: Interaction with selected bread brands, July 2013
- Online conversations
-
- Figure 39: Online conversations on selected bread brands, by day, August 14, 2012- August 13, 2013
- Where are people talking about bread brands?
-
- Figure 40: Online conversations on selected bread brands, by day, August 14, 2012- August 13 2013
- What are people talking about?
-
- Figure 41: Types of conversations around selected bread brands, August 14, 2012- August 13, 2013
-
- Figure 42: Types of conversations around selected bread brands, by day August 14, 2012- August 13, 2013
- Brand analysis
- Thomas’
-
- Figure 43: Thomas’ key social media indicators, August 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Mission
-
- Figure 44: Mission key social media indicators, August 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Udi’s
-
- Figure 45: Udi’s key social media indicators, August 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- King’s Hawaiian
-
- Figure 46: King’s Hawaiian key social media indicators, August 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Nature’s Own
-
- Figure 47: Nature’s Own key social media indicators, August 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Oroweat
-
- Figure 48: Oroweat key social media indicators, August 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
Bread Purchase and Use
-
- Key points
- Bread is eaten in 99% of households
-
- Figure 49: Bread, January 2012-March 2013
- Households eat one and a half loaves per week
-
- Figure 50: Number of loaves/packages eaten by household in last 7 days, 2008-13
- Interest in white bread continues to wane
-
- Figure 51: Bread use, February 2007-March 2013
- Buns rule, packaged bread sees the most frequent usage
-
- Figure 52: Any use of bread, June-July 2013
- Figure 53: Any use of bread, June-July 2013 (continued)
- Men and women exhibit similar bread use, women more likely to buy
-
- Figure 54: Any use of bread, by gender, June-July 2013
- Figure 55: Bread purchase, by gender, June-July 2013
- All age groups use bread, younger consumers more adventurous
-
- Figure 56: Any use of bread, by age, June-July 2013
- 18-24s likely eating bread at home
-
- Figure 57: Bread purchase, by age, June-July 2013
- Lower income earners least likely to use bread
-
- Figure 58: Any use of bread, by household income, June-July 2013
- Even single person households using bread
-
- Figure 59: Any use of bread, by household size, June-July 2013
- Households with children over index in bread use
-
- Figure 60: Any use of bread, by presence of children in household, June-July 2013
- Carbs keep some consumers away from bread
-
- Figure 61: Reasons for not using bread, June-July 2013
Change in Purchase Behavior
-
- Key points
- Shoppers buying less, spending more
-
- Figure 62: Change in purchase behavior, by gender, June-July 2013
- A look at reasons for increased purchase can be a clue to growing sales
- Be specific about usage
- Expansion of healthy offerings appears as an important driver
- Coupons may be a means of growing sales among men.
-
- Figure 63: Reason for increased purchase, by gender, June-July 2013
- Young consumers are a growth market
-
- Figure 64: Change in purchase behavior, by age, June-July 2013
- Young consumers cooking more at home
-
- Figure 65: Reason for increased purchase, by age, June-July 2013
- Lower income earners may see value in bread
-
- Figure 66: Change in purchase behavior, by household income, June-July 2013
- Higher income earners attracted to health options
-
- Figure 67: Reason for increased purchase, by household income, June-July 2013
- Growth among refrigerated/frozen indicates interest in affordable convenience
-
- Figure 68: Change in purchase behavior, by segment, June-July 2013
- Expansion of health and affordability helps segment
-
- Figure 69: Reason for increased purchase, by segment, June-July 2013
- Gluten-free bread users show highest change in purchase behavior
-
- Figure 70: Change in purchase behavior, by bread type, June-July 2013
- Expansion of gluten-free options a likely cause
-
- Figure 71: Reason for increased purchase, by bread type, June-July 2013
How Bread is Used
-
- Key points
- Sandwiches rule
-
- Figure 72: How bread is used, by gender, June-July 2013
- Women more likely than men to eat bread for breakfast
-
- Figure 73: When bread is used, by gender, June-July 2013
- Older consumers are strong candidates for sandwich promotion
-
- Figure 74: How bread is used, by age, June-July 2013
- …while young consumers could lead the way for snack bread
-
- Figure 75: When bread is used, by age, June-July 2013
- Low-income earners more likely than average to eat bread with meals/plain
-
- Figure 76: How bread is used, by household income, June-July 2013
- …including for use as a snack
-
- Figure 77: When bread is used, by household income, June-July 2013
- Bread appears as a convenient option for households with children
-
- Figure 78: How bread is used, by presence of children in household, June-July 2013
- Bagels, English muffins, croissants, and bakery bread popular for breakfast
-
- Figure 79: When bread is used, by segment, June-July 2013
- …while gluten-free offerings present the potential for expanded snacking
-
- Figure 80: When bread is used, by bread type, June-July 2013
Purchase Decision
-
- Key points
- Low price dominates purchase decision, especially among men
-
- Figure 81: Purchase decisions, by gender, June-July 2013
- 18-24s drawn to low price, 55+ look for reduced sodium/sugar
-
- Figure 82: Purchase decisions, by age, June-July 2013
- Price is a major driver among low earners, higher earners want more
-
- Figure 83: Purchase decisions, by household income, June-July 2013
- Low-frequency users driven by price, low sodium/sugar
-
- Figure 84: Purchase decisions, by number of products used, June-July 2013
- Whole grain and high fiber important for breakfast bread
-
- Figure 85: Purchase decisions, by ways bread is used, June-July 2013
-
- Figure 86: Purchase decisions, by bread segment, June-July 2013
- Figure 87: Purchase decisions, by bread type, June-July 2013
Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin
-
- Key points
- Asians over index in bread use, Hispanics are attracted to familiarity
-
- Figure 88: Use of bread, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
- Figure 89: Any use of bread, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
- Health and affordability boost participation among Hispanics
-
- Figure 90: Reason for increased purchase, by Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
- Asian consumers over index in eating bread plain and using bread recipes
-
- Figure 91: How bread is used, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
- Black consumers show versatility in bread use
-
- Figure 92: When bread is used, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
- Different users groups are motivated by different factors
-
- Figure 93: Purchase decisions, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
Key Household Purchase Measures – Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data
-
- Overview of fresh bread and rolls
- Fresh bread
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures – fresh bread
- Brand map
-
- Figure 94: Brand map, selected brands of fresh bread buying rate, by household penetration, 2012*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
-
- Figure 95: Key purchase measures for the top brands of fresh bread, by household penetration, 2012*
- All other fresh rolls/buns/croissants
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures – all other fresh rolls/buns/croissants
- Brand map
-
- Figure 96: Brand map, selected brands of all other fresh rolls/buns/croissants, by household penetration, 2012*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
-
- Figure 97: Key purchase measures for the top brands of all other fresh rolls/buns/croissants, by household penetration, 2012*
- Bagels/bialys
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures – bagels/bialys
- Brand map
-
- Figure 98: Brand map, selected brands of bagels/bialys buying rate, by household penetration, 2012*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
-
- Figure 99: Key purchase measures for the top brands of bagels/bialys, by household penetration, 2012*
Appendix – Market Drivers
-
- Consumer confidence
-
- Figure 100: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
- Unemployment
-
- Figure 101: U.S. unemployment rate, by month, 2002-13
- Figure 102: U.S. unemployment and underemployment rates, 2007-13
-
- Figure 103: Number of employed civilians in U.S., in thousands, 2007-13
- Food cost pressures
-
- Figure 104: Changes in USDA Food Price Indexes, 2011-14
- Obesity
-
- Figure 105: American adults by weight category as determined by body mass index (BMI), 2008-June 20, 2013
- Childhood and teen obesity – highest in decades
-
- Figure 106: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
- Racial, ethnic population growth
-
- Figure 107: U.S. population by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
-
- Figure 108: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
- Shifting U.S. demographics
-
- Figure 109: U.S. population, by age, 2008-18
- Figure 110: U.S. households, by presence of own children, 2002-12
Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
-
- Use of bread
-
- Figure 111: Any use of bread, by region, June-July 2013
-
- Figure 112: Use of breads, June-July 2013
- Bread purchase
-
- Figure 113: Bread purchase, by household size, June-July 2013
- Change in purchase
-
- Figure 114: Change in purchase behavior, by presence of children in household, June-July 2013
-
- Figure 115: Change in purchase behavior, by repertoire analysis, June-July 2013
- How bread is used
-
- Figure 116: How bread is used, by repertoire analysis, June-July 2013
-
- Figure 117: How bread is used, by repertoire analysis, June-July 2013 (continued)
-
- Figure 118: How bread is used, by repertoire analysis, June-July 2013 (continued)
- Purchase decision
-
- Figure 119: Purchase decisions, by household size, June-July 2013
-
- Figure 120: Purchase decisions, by presence of children in household, June-July 2013
-
- Figure 121: Purchase decisions, by ways bread is used, June-July 2013
-
- Figure 122: Purchase decisions, by ways bread is used, June-July 2013 (continued)
Appendix – Social Media
-
- Brand usage or awareness
-
- Figure 123: Brand usage or awareness, June-July 2013
- Figure 124: King’s Hawaiian usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
-
- Figure 125: Thomas’ usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
- Figure 126: Mission usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
-
- Figure 127: Nature’s Own usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
- Figure 128: Oroweat usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
-
- Figure 129: Udi’s usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
- Activities done
-
- Figure 130: Activities done, June-July 2013
- Figure 131: King’s Hawaiian – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
-
- Figure 132: Thomas’ – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
-
- Figure 133: Mission – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
-
- Figure 134: Nature’s own – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
-
- Figure 135: Oroweat – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
- Online conversations
-
- Figure 136: Online conversations on selected bread brands, by day, August 14, 2012- August 14, 2013
- Figure 137: online conversations on selected bread brands, by page type, August 14, 2012- August 14, 2013
- Figure 138: Types of conversations around selected bread brands, August 14, 2012- August 14, 2013
-
- Figure 139: Types of conversations around selected bread brands, by day, August 14, 2012- August 14, 2013
Appendix – Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data Definitions
-
- Information Resources Inc. Consumer Network Metrics
Appendix – Trade Associations
Back to top