Author: Mintel Group Ltd.
Last saved by: HTTP server

Bread - US - September 2013

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Category sales remain stagnant
Figure 1: Total U.S. sales and forecast of bread, at current prices, 2008-18
Market segmentation
Fresh loaf bread leads sales, tortillas and bakery offerings post strongest growth
Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, by segment, at current prices, 2011 and 2013
Leading companies
Grupo Bimbo represents more than one quarter of category sales
Figure 3: MULO sales of bread, by top five leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
Innovation
Bread products attract attention through claims
Figure 4: Bread launches, by top five claims (plus gluten-free), 2008-13*
The consumer
Bread use at a five-year low
Figure 5: Number of loaves/packages eaten by household in last seven days, 2008-13
Sandwiches lead uses for bread, wider range needed
Figure 6: How bread is used, June-July 2013
Health and variety are top of mind for nonusers
Figure 7: Top five reasons for not using bread, July 2013
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
How should the category address the topic of health?
Issues
Insight: promote products as meeting essential consumer needs.
How can the industry keep bread fresh?
Issues
Insight: expand flavors and formats to get consumers thinking beyond the sandwich.
How can the category compete with bakery offerings?
Issues
Insight: boosting product attributes and promoting freshness will mitigate bakery impact.
TREND APPLICATIONS
Trend: Sense of the Intense
Trend: Hungry Planet
Mintel Futures: Brand Intervention
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Category sales remain stagnant
Sales of bread
Figure 8: Total U.S. sales and forecast of bread, at current prices, 2008-18
Figure 9: Total U.S. sales and forecast of bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-18
Fan chart forecast
Figure 10: Total market sales and fan chart forecast of bread, at current prices, 2008-18
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Expansion of gluten-free offerings may benefit bread category
Foodservice turns the focus on the bun
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Fresh loaf bread leads sales, tortillas and bakery offerings gain
Figure 11: Purchase decisions, by bread usage, June-July 2013
Sales of bread, by segment
Figure 12: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, by segment, at current prices, 2011 and 2013
Fresh loaf bread sales fall 4% from 2008-13 to $9.9 billion
Sales of fresh loaf bread
Figure 13: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of fresh loaf bread, at current prices, 2008-18
Fresh roll, bun, and croissant sales grow 12% from 2008-13, level off
Figure 14: Croissants, January 2012-March 2013
Sales of fresh rolls, buns, and croissants
Figure 15: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of fresh rolls, buns, and croissants, at current prices, 2008-18
Sales of tortillas and taco shells grow 20% to reach $2.6 billion in 2013
Sales of tortillas and taco shells
Figure 16: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of tortillas and taco shells, at current prices, 2008-18
Bagel, bialy, and English muffin sales grow 3% to reach $1.7 billion
Figure 17: Bagels, January 2012-March 2013
Figure 18: English muffins, January 2012-March 2013
Sales of fresh bagels, bialys, and English muffins
Figure 19: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of fresh bagels, bialys, and English muffins, at current prices, 2008-18
Refrigerated/frozen bread sales struggle, fall 13% from 2008-13
Sales of refrigerated/frozen bread products
Figure 20: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen bread products, at current prices, 2008-18
Sales of bread at in-store bakeries grow 20% to reach $4.2 billion
Sales of in-store bakeries
Figure 21: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2008-18
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
“Other” outlets gain on supermarkets
Sales of bread, by channel
Figure 22: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, by channel, at current prices, 2011-13
Natural channel sales grow 19%
Sales of bread in the natural channel
Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of bread, at current prices, 2011-13*
Figure 24: Natural supermarket sales of bread at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-13*
Natural channel sales of bread by segment
Figure 25: Natural supermarket sales of bread, by segment, 2011 and 2013*
Brands of note
Natural channel sales of bread by organic
Figure 26: Natural supermarket sales of bread, by organic, 2010 and 2012*
Natural channel sales of bread by gluten-free
Figure 27: Natural supermarket sales of bread, by gluten-free, 2011 and 2013*
LEADING COMPANIES AND BRAND ANALYSIS
Key points
Strong acquisition activity leads to big gains/losses
Grupo Bimbo works through growing pains
Flowers Blooms
King’s Hawaiian grows by nearly 25%
Hostess ceases operations
Private label represents 22.7% of sales
Manufacturer sales of bread
Figure 28: MULO sales of bread, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
Most fresh loaf bread brands gain from Hostess losses
MULO sales of fresh loaf bread
Figure 29: MULO sales of fresh loaf bread, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
King’s Hawaiian grows sales in the segment by 27.4%
MULO sales of fresh rolls, buns, and croissants
Figure 30: MULO sales of fresh rolls, buns, and croissants, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
Gruma’s Mission and Guerrero brands dominate and grow sales of tortillas
MULO sales of tortillas and taco shells
Figure 31: MULO sales of tortillas and taco shells*, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
Grupo Bimbo represents 75.4% of bagel, bialy, and English muffin sales
MULO sales of bagels, bialys, and English muffins
Figure 32: MULO sales of bagels, bialys, and English muffins, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
Refrigerated/frozen segment can find success in health/convenience
MULO sales of refrigerated/frozen bread, bagels, bialys and English muffins
Figure 33: sales of refrigerated/frozen bread, bagels, bialys and English muffins, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
Product launches down
Figure 34: Bread launches, by launch type, 2008-12*
Category attracts attention through claims
Figure 35: Bread launches, by top 10 claims, 2009-13*
Spicing up the category through flavor innovation
Encouraging increased purchase occasion through product differentiation
New textures
New formats
Encouraging occasion-specific use
Regional/specialty offerings
Health innovation
Added nutrients, seeds, ancient grains
SOCIAL MEDIA
Key points
 KEY SOCIAL MEDIA METRICS
Figure 36: Key brand metrics, Bread, August 2013
Market overview
Brand usage and awareness
Figure 37: Usage and awareness of selected bread brands, July 2013
Interaction with brands
Figure 38: Interaction with selected bread brands, July 2013
Online conversations
Figure 39: Online conversations on selected bread brands, by day, August 14, 2012- August 13, 2013
Where are people talking about bread brands?
Figure 40: Online conversations on selected bread brands, by day, August 14, 2012- August 13 2013
What are people talking about?
Figure 41: Types of conversations around selected bread brands, August 14, 2012- August 13, 2013
Figure 42: Types of conversations around selected bread brands, by day August 14, 2012- August 13, 2013
 BRAND ANALYSIS
Thomas’
Figure 43: Thomas’ key social media indicators, August 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Mission
Figure 44: Mission key social media indicators, August 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Udi’s
Figure 45: Udi’s key social media indicators, August 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
King’s Hawaiian
Figure 46: King’s Hawaiian key social media indicators, August 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Nature’s Own
Figure 47: Nature’s Own key social media indicators, August 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Oroweat
Figure 48: Oroweat key social media indicators, August 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
BREAD PURCHASE AND USE
Key points
Bread is eaten in 99% of households
Figure 49: Bread, January 2012-March 2013
Households eat one and a half loaves per week
Figure 50: Number of loaves/packages eaten by household in last 7 days, 2008-13
Interest in white bread continues to wane
Figure 51: Bread use, February 2007-March 2013
Buns rule, packaged bread sees the most frequent usage
Figure 52: Any use of bread, June-July 2013
Figure 53: Any use of bread, June-July 2013 (continued)
Men and women exhibit similar bread use, women more likely to buy
Figure 54: Any use of bread, by gender, June-July 2013
Figure 55: Bread purchase, by gender, June-July 2013
All age groups use bread, younger consumers more adventurous
Figure 56: Any use of bread, by age, June-July 2013
18-24s likely eating bread at home
Figure 57: Bread purchase, by age, June-July 2013
Lower income earners least likely to use bread
Figure 58: Any use of bread, by household income, June-July 2013
Even single person households using bread
Figure 59: Any use of bread, by household size, June-July 2013
Households with children over index in bread use
Figure 60: Any use of bread, by presence of children in household, June-July 2013
Carbs keep some consumers away from bread
Figure 61: Reasons for not using bread, June-July 2013
CHANGE IN PURCHASE BEHAVIOR
Key points
Shoppers buying less, spending more
Figure 62: Change in purchase behavior, by gender, June-July 2013
A look at reasons for increased purchase can be a clue to growing sales
Be specific about usage
Expansion of healthy offerings appears as an important driver
Coupons may be a means of growing sales among men.
Figure 63: Reason for increased purchase, by gender, June-July 2013
Young consumers are a growth market
Figure 64: Change in purchase behavior, by age, June-July 2013
Young consumers cooking more at home
Figure 65: Reason for increased purchase, by age, June-July 2013
Lower income earners may see value in bread
Figure 66: Change in purchase behavior, by household income, June-July 2013
Higher income earners attracted to health options
Figure 67: Reason for increased purchase, by household income, June-July 2013
Growth among refrigerated/frozen indicates interest in affordable convenience
Figure 68: Change in purchase behavior, by segment, June-July 2013
Expansion of health and affordability helps segment
Figure 69: Reason for increased purchase, by segment, June-July 2013
Gluten-free bread users show highest change in purchase behavior
Figure 70: Change in purchase behavior, by bread type, June-July 2013
Expansion of gluten-free options a likely cause
Figure 71: Reason for increased purchase, by bread type, June-July 2013
HOW BREAD IS USED
Key points
Sandwiches rule
Figure 72: How bread is used, by gender, June-July 2013
Women more likely than men to eat bread for breakfast
Figure 73: When bread is used, by gender, June-July 2013
Older consumers are strong candidates for sandwich promotion
Figure 74: How bread is used, by age, June-July 2013
…while young consumers could lead the way for snack bread
Figure 75: When bread is used, by age, June-July 2013
Low-income earners more likely than average to eat bread with meals/plain
Figure 76: How bread is used, by household income, June-July 2013
…including for use as a snack
Figure 77: When bread is used, by household income, June-July 2013
Bread appears as a convenient option for households with children
Figure 78: How bread is used, by presence of children in household, June-July 2013
Bagels, English muffins, croissants, and bakery bread popular for breakfast
Figure 79: When bread is used, by segment, June-July 2013
…while gluten-free offerings present the potential for expanded snacking
Figure 80: When bread is used, by bread type, June-July 2013
PURCHASE DECISION
Key points
Low price dominates purchase decision, especially among men
Figure 81: Purchase decisions, by gender, June-July 2013
18-24s drawn to low price, 55+ look for reduced sodium/sugar
Figure 82: Purchase decisions, by age, June-July 2013
Price is a major driver among low earners, higher earners want more
Figure 83: Purchase decisions, by household income, June-July 2013
Low-frequency users driven by price, low sodium/sugar
Figure 84: Purchase decisions, by number of products used, June-July 2013
Whole grain and high fiber important for breakfast bread
Figure 85: Purchase decisions, by ways bread is used, June-July 2013
Figure 86: Purchase decisions, by bread segment, June-July 2013
Figure 87: Purchase decisions, by bread type, June-July 2013
IMPACT OF RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Asians over index in bread use, Hispanics are attracted to familiarity
Figure 88: Use of bread, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
Figure 89: Any use of bread, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
Health and affordability boost participation among Hispanics
Figure 90: Reason for increased purchase, by Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
Asian consumers over index in eating bread plain and using bread recipes
Figure 91: How bread is used, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
Black consumers show versatility in bread use
Figure 92: When bread is used, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
Different users groups are motivated by different factors
Figure 93: Purchase decisions, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
KEY HOUSEHOLD PURCHASE MEASURES – INFORMATION RESOURCES INC. BUILDERS PANEL DATA
Overview of fresh bread and rolls
Fresh bread
Consumer insights on key purchase measures – fresh bread
Brand map
Figure 94: Brand map, selected brands of fresh bread buying rate, by household penetration, 2012*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 95: Key purchase measures for the top brands of fresh bread, by household penetration, 2012*
All other fresh rolls/buns/croissants
Consumer insights on key purchase measures – all other fresh rolls/buns/croissants
Brand map
Figure 96: Brand map, selected brands of all other fresh rolls/buns/croissants, by household penetration, 2012*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 97: Key purchase measures for the top brands of all other fresh rolls/buns/croissants, by household penetration, 2012*
Bagels/bialys
Consumer insights on key purchase measures – bagels/bialys
Brand map
Figure 98: Brand map, selected brands of bagels/bialys buying rate, by household penetration, 2012*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 99: Key purchase measures for the top brands of bagels/bialys, by household penetration, 2012*
APPENDIX – MARKET DRIVERS
Consumer confidence
Figure 100: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
Unemployment
Figure 101: U.S. unemployment rate, by month, 2002-13
Figure 102: U.S. unemployment and underemployment rates, 2007-13
Figure 103: Number of employed civilians in U.S., in thousands, 2007-13
Food cost pressures
Figure 104: Changes in USDA Food Price Indexes, 2011-14
Obesity
Figure 105: American adults by weight category as determined by body mass index (BMI), 2008-June 20, 2013
Childhood and teen obesity – highest in decades
Figure 106: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
Racial, ethnic population growth
Figure 107: U.S. population by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
Figure 108: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
Shifting U.S. demographics
Figure 109: U.S. population, by age, 2008-18
Figure 110: U.S. households, by presence of own children, 2002-12
APPENDIX – OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Use of bread
Figure 111: Any use of bread, by region, June-July 2013
Figure 112: Use of breads, June-July 2013
Bread purchase
Figure 113: Bread purchase, by household size, June-July 2013
Change in purchase
Figure 114: Change in purchase behavior, by presence of children in household, June-July 2013
Figure 115: Change in purchase behavior, by repertoire analysis, June-July 2013
How bread is used
Figure 116: How bread is used, by repertoire analysis, June-July 2013
Figure 117: How bread is used, by repertoire analysis, June-July 2013 (continued)
Figure 118: How bread is used, by repertoire analysis, June-July 2013 (continued)
Purchase decision
Figure 119: Purchase decisions, by household size, June-July 2013
Figure 120: Purchase decisions, by presence of children in household, June-July 2013
Figure 121: Purchase decisions, by ways bread is used, June-July 2013
Figure 122: Purchase decisions, by ways bread is used, June-July 2013 (continued)
APPENDIX – SOCIAL MEDIA
Brand usage or awareness
Figure 123: Brand usage or awareness, June-July 2013
Figure 124: King’s Hawaiian usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
Figure 125: Thomas’ usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
Figure 126: Mission usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
Figure 127: Nature’s Own usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
Figure 128: Oroweat usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
Figure 129: Udi’s usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
Activities done
Figure 130: Activities done, June-July 2013
Figure 131: King’s Hawaiian – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
Figure 132: Thomas’ – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
Figure 133: Mission – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
Figure 134: Nature’s own – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
Figure 135: Oroweat – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
Online conversations
Figure 136: Online conversations on selected bread brands, by day, August 14, 2012- August 14, 2013
Figure 137: online conversations on selected bread brands, by page type, August 14, 2012- August 14, 2013
Figure 138: Types of conversations around selected bread brands, August 14, 2012- August 14, 2013
Figure 139: Types of conversations around selected bread brands, by day, August 14, 2012- August 14, 2013
APPENDIX – INFORMATION RESOURCES INC. BUILDERS PANEL DATA DEFINITIONS
Information Resources Inc. Consumer Network Metrics
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

This report is supplied in accordance with Mintel's terms and conditions.  
© Mintel Group Ltd.