Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: UK retail value sales and forecast of prepared meals, pies and pasties, by value, 2007-17
- The future
- Market factors
- Horse meat scandal
- A growing need to engage the older population
- Healthier variants would help to alleviate concerns
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Own-brand dominates the market
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- Figure 2: Estimated brand shares in the UK chilled ready meals market, by value, 2012/13*
- NPD continues to drive the market
- Heinz dominates ad investment
- The consumer
- Three in four consumers purchase prepared meals
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- Figure 3: Types of prepared meals bought, February 2013
- Frozen ready meals solicit strong negative perceptions
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- Figure 4: Correspondence analysis, February 2013
- Sizeable minority say the horse meat scandal has had no effect on their behaviour
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- Figure 5: Agreement with statements on purchasing of ready meals, February 2013
- Ready meals market faces barriers to consumption
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- Figure 6: Agreement with statements on ready meals, February 2013
- Convenience is the key driver to usage
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- Figure 7: Agreement with statements on prepared meals, February 2013
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- What is the impact of the horse meat adulteration scandal?
- How can the industry overcome the health barrier facing prepared meals?
- How can the market provide a convenient solution to home cooking?
- What NPD opportunities are there for ethnic meals?
Trend Application
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- FSTR HYPR
- Factory Fear
- Futures: East Meets West
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Horse meat adulteration scandal puts spotlight on sourcing of ingredients
- Consumer expenditure to slowly regain momentum
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- Figure 8: Consumer expenditure at constant 2012 prices, 2007-17
- Convenience vs health
- Prepared meals appeal to time-poor consumers
- Health remains an issue for a sizeable minority
- Demographic changes
- Rise in number of one- and five-person households bodes well for the market
- Increase in number of 25-34s should support growth
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- NPD activity doubles over 2009-12
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- Figure 9: New product launches in prepared meals and meal kits, by segment, 2009-12
- Storage formats remain a focus of NPD
- Chilled meals dominate but frozen and shelf stable are seeing an increase
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- Figure 10: New product launches in prepared meals, by storage, 2009-12
- Chilled meal kits overtake shelf stable formats
- British claim gains greater relevance
- Foodservice trends prove inspirational
- Slimming versions become more popular
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- Figure 11: Index of new product launches in prepared meals, by selected health claims, 2009-12
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Overall market sees steady growth
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- Figure 12: UK retail value sales and forecast of prepared meals, pies and pasties, by value, 2007-17
- The future
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- Figure 13: UK retail value sales and forecast of prepared meals, pies and pasties, by value, 2007-17
- Segmentation – chilled ready meals
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- Figure 14: UK retail value sales and forecast of chilled ready meals, by value, 2007-17
- Segmentation – frozen ready meals
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- Figure 15: UK retail value sales and forecast of frozen ready meals, by value, 2007-17
- Segmentation – ready-to-cook foods
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- Figure 16: UK retail value sales and forecast of ready-to-cook foods, by value, 2007-17
- Segmentation – pies and pasties
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- Figure 17: UK retail value sales and forecast of pies and pasties, by value, 2007-17
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Chilled ready meals dominate market
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- Figure 18: UK retail value and volume sales of prepared meals, by category, 2010-12
- Standard varieties account for 80p in every £1
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- Figure 19: Market segments in the chilled and frozen ready meals and ready to cook foods market, by type, 2010-12
- British cuisine dominates ready meals…
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- Figure 20: Market segments in the chilled and frozen ready meals market, by value, by cuisine, 2010-12
- … and ready-to-cook foods
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- Figure 21: Market segments in the ready to cook foods market, by value, by cuisine, 2010-12
- Hot pies hold the largest share within pies and pasties
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- Figure 22: UK retail value and volume sales of pies and pasties, by type, 2011-12
Market Share
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- Key points
- Own-label maintains grip on chilled ready meals…
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- Figure 23: Estimated brands’ retail value and volume shares in chilled ready meals, 2011/12 and 2012/13
- … and ready-to-cook foods
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- Figure 24: Estimated retail value shares in ready-to-cook chilled meals, by own-label and brands, 2011/12 and 2012/13
- The horse meat scandal hits frozen ready meals
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- Figure 25: Estimated brands’ retail value and volume shares in frozen ready meals, 2011/12 and 2012/13
Companies and Products
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- Asda
- Birds Eye
- Findus Group
- Heinz
- Marks & Spencer
- Morrisons
- Sainsbury’s
- Tesco
- Waitrose
- Meal Kits
- Discovery Foods
- Old El Paso (General Mills)
- Sharwood’s (Premier Foods)
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Total adspend falls as major players cut spend
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- Figure 26: Main monitored advertising expenditure in the UK prepared meals and meal kits market, 2009-12
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- Figure 27: Main monitored advertising expenditure in the UK prepared meals and meal kits market, by selected companies, 2009-12
- 2013 activity
- Meal kits are focus of brand expenditure
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- Figure 28: Monitored advertising expenditure in the UK prepared meals market, by top brands, 2012
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- Supermarkets dominate sales
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- Figure 29: Estimated consumer spending on prepared meals (including pizza), by type of retailer, 2012
Consumer – General Cooking Habits
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- Key points
- Half an hour is the optimum time to spend cooking
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- Figure 30: Time spent and preferred time to spend, preparing and cooking a typical evening meal, February 2013
- Only one in five would prefer to spend 35+ minutes in the kitchen
Consumer – Types of Prepared Meals Purchased
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- Key points
- Three quarters of adults purchase prepared meals
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- Figure 31: Types of prepared meals bought, February 2013
- 25-34s are the core users
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- Figure 32: Types of prepared meals bought, by age, February 2013
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- Figure 33: Eating habits, by age, March 2013
- Own-label dominates usage trends
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- Figure 34: Types of prepared meals bought, by own-label vs branded, February 2013
- Notable crossover between prepared meals
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- Figure 35: Crossover in purchasing of chilled ready meals, frozen ready meals and ready-to-cook foods, February 2013
Consumer – Perceptions of Prepared Meals
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- Key points
- Frozen ready meals solicit strong negative perceptions
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- Figure 36: Correspondence analysis, February 2013
- Positive attributes for chilled ready meals and ready-to-cook foods
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- Figure 37: Selected words associated with chilled ready meals, by gender, February 2013
- Meal kits could market the notion of indulgence
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- Figure 38: Selected words associated with meal kits, by presence of children in household and household size, February 2013
- Methodology
Consumer Attitudes Towards Ready Meals Following the Horse Meat Scandal
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- Key points
- Sizeable minority say the horse meat scandal has had no effect on their behaviour
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- Figure 39: Agreement with statements on purchasing of ready meals, February 2013
- Around a fifth of users plan to avoid ready meals containing beef
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- Figure 40: Attitudes towards protein and foods high in protein, by gender, November 2012
- Meals containing British meat need to reassure consumers
Consumer Attitudes Towards Ready Meals
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- Key points
- Ready meals market faces several barriers to consumption
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- Figure 41: Agreement with statements on ready meals, February 2013
- A third limit consumption over health concerns
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- Figure 42: Index of agreement with the statement ‘I limit how often I eat ready meals because they are not healthy’, by gender, age and socio-economic group (average = 100), February 2013
- Solo dining is a driver for one in three ready meal occasions
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- Figure 43: Agreement with the statement ‘I mainly have ready meals when eating on my own’, by age and household size, February 2013
Consumer Attitudes Towards Prepared Meals
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- Key points
- Convenience is the key driver to usage
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- Figure 44: Agreement with statements on prepared meals, February 2013
- Consumers are more habitual than adventurous
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- Figure 45: Agreement with the statement ‘I would like to see more prepared meals from different cuisines (eg Moroccan)’, by age, February 2013
- Meal accompaniments could drive usage
- Smaller households are incentivised to bulk buy when on promotion
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- Figure 46: Agreement with the statement ‘I tend to stock up on prepared meals when they are on promotion’, by household size, February 2013
Appendix – Market Drivers
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- Figure 47: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2012 prices, 2007-17
- Figure 48: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2007-17
- Figure 49: UK households, by size, 2007-17
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- Figure 50: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2007-17
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Appendix – Who’s Innovating?
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- Figure 51: New product launches in meal kits, by storage, 2009-12
- Figure 52: New product launches in shelf-stable prepared meals, by package type, 2009-12
- Figure 53: New product launches in prepared meals, by top 10 claims, 2009-12
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Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecasts for prepared meals and pies and pasties, by value retail sales, 2012-17
- Figure 55: Best- and worst-case forecasts for chilled ready meals, by value retail sales, 2012-17
- Figure 56: UK chilled ready meals value market size and forecast, 2007-17
- Figure 57: Best- and worst-case forecasts for frozen ready meals, by value retail sales, 2012-17
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- Figure 58: UK frozen ready meals value market size and forecast, 2007-17
- Figure 59: Best- and worst-case forecasts for ready-to-cook foods, by value retail sales, 2012-17
- Figure 60: UK ready-to-cook foods value market size and forecast, 2007-17
- Figure 61: Best- and worst-case forecasts for pies and pasties, by value retail sales, 2012-17
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- Figure 62: UK pies and pasties value market size and forecast, 2007-17
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Appendix – Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Figure 63: Monitored advertising expenditure in the UK prepared meals market, by top brands, 2009-12
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Appendix – Consumer – General Cooking Habits
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- Figure 64: Time spent preparing and cooking a typical evening meal, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 65: Preferred time to spend preparing and cooking a typical evening meal, by demographics, February 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Types of Prepared Meals Purchased
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- Figure 66: Types of prepared meals bought, by type, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 67: Types of any own-label prepared meals bought, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 68: Types of ‘any prepared meals’ bought, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 69: Types of any ready meals bought, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 70: Types of any meal kit bought, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 71: Types of chilled ready meal bought, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 72: Types of frozen ready meals bought, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 73: Types of ready meal stored at room temperature bought, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 74: Types of chilled meal kit bought, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 75: Types of meal kits stored at room temperature bought, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 76: Types of ready-to-cook foods bought, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 77: Crossover in purchasing of chilled ready meals, frozen ready meals and ready-to-cook foods, February 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Perceptions of Prepared Meals
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- Figure 78: Words associated with prepared meals, February 2013
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- Figure 79: Most popular words associated with chilled ready meals, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 80: Next most popular words associated with chilled ready meals, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 81: Other words associated with chilled ready meals, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 82: Most popular words associated with frozen ready meals, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 83: Next most popular words associated with frozen ready meals, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 84: Other words associated with frozen ready meal, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 85: Most popular words associated with ready-to-cook foods, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 86: Next most popular words associated with ready-to-cook foods, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 87: Other words associated with ready-to-cook foods, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 88: Most popular words associated with meal kits, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 89: Next most popular words associated with meal kits, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 90: Other words associated with meal kits, by demographics, February 2013
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Appendix - Consumer – Attitudes Towards Ready Meals Following the Meat Adulteration Scandal
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- Figure 91: Agreement with statements on purchasing ready meals following meat adulteration, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 92: Agreement with statements on purchasing ready meals following meat adulteration, by demographics, February 2013
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Appendix – Consumer Attitudes Towards Ready Meals
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- Figure 93: Agreement with most popular statements on ready meals, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 94: Agreement with next most popular statements on ready meals, by demographics, February 2013
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Appendix – Consumer Attitudes Towards Prepared Meals
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- Figure 95: Agreement with most popular statements on prepared meals, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 96: Agreement with next most popular statements on prepared meals, by demographics, February 2013
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