Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- In-store bakeries continue to experience steady growth
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- Figure 1: Total Number of in-store bakeries and average weekly sales per store, 2007-12
- Moderate sales growth expected through 2017
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- Figure 2: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2007-17
- Dessert dominates in-store bakery while bread struggles
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- Figure 3: Total U.S. retail sales of in-store bakeries, by segment, 2007-17
- Market factors
- Increasing demand for local, fresh products will drive ISB sales
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- Figure 4: Important retailer attributes, November 2012
- Employment drives demand for in-store bakery convenience
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- Figure 5: Purchase in past year, by employment, November 2012
- ISBs face competition within and outside the grocery store
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- Figure 6: Purchase frequency by bakery type, November 2012
- The in-store bakery consumer
- In-store bakeries particularly appealing to households with children
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- Figure 7: Purchase in past year by bakery type, by presence of children in household, November 2012
- Better-for-you bakery goods appeal to Hispanics
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- Figure 8: Consumer interest in new products, by Hispanic origin, November 2012
- Consumers prefer ISBs for quality superior to prepackaged goods
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- Figure 9: Why consumers prefer in-store bakeries, November 2012
- New products offer opportunities for ISB growth
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- Figure 10: Consumer interest in new products, by generation, November 2012
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How can in-store bakeries grow despite already high penetration?
- How can the category respond to demand for healthier food products?
- How will more food regulations affect in-store bakeries?
Insights and Opportunities
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- In-store bakeries that offer on-the-go and takeout experience…
- …and dine-in ability for those who want to savor an eating experience
- New flavor trends may offer boost in quality perceptions
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Transumers
- Trend: Experience Is All
- 2015 trend: Old Gold
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- In-store bakeries continue steady growth
- Sales and forecast of market
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- Figure 11: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2007-17
- Figure 12: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
- Figure 13: Number of in-store bakeries and average weekly sales per store, 2007-12
- Figure 14: Per household expenditures on in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2007-12
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 15: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2007-17
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- In-store bakeries appeal to consumer demand for local and fresh
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- Figure 16: Important attributes, by gender, November 2012
- Busy lifestyles demand convenience that in-store bakeries offer
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- Figure 17: Purchase in past year by bakery type, by employment, November 2012
- Declining consumer confidence may keep consumers at home
- Obesity worries threaten demand for bakery indulgences
- Higher prices create purchase barrier for some consumers
Competitive Context
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- Stand-alone bakeries offer higher perceived quality
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- Figure 18: Purchase frequency by bakery type, November 2012
- Consumers use bread/dessert aisle as much as in-store bakery
- At-home baking offers alternative to premade baked goods
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Strong growth in three out of four segments drives category growth
- Sales of in-store bakeries, by segment
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- Figure 19: U.S. retail sales of in-store bakery products, by segment, 2010 and 2012
Segment Performance—Desserts
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- Key points
- Dessert segment grows 25.9% to continue category dominance
- Sales and forecast of desserts
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- Figure 20: Total U.S. retail sales of desserts at in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance—Bread and Rolls
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- Key points
- Bread and rolls suffer in comparison to other ISB segments
- Sales and forecast of bread and rolls
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- Figure 21: Total U.S. retail sales of bread and rolls in in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance—Breakfast Bakery
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- Key points
- Breakfast bakery presents growth opportunity
- Sales and forecast of breakfast bakery
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- Figure 22: Total U.S. retail sales of breakfast bakery in in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2007-17
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview of the in-store bakery landscape
- In-store bakery versus bakery in the store
- Treat of the month club stirs up interest
- Offering consumers authenticity
- Website and social media opportunities for in-store bakeries
- Kroger
- Walmart
- Hy-Vee
Bread and Baked Goods Consumption
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- Key points
- Most households eat bread but usage drops with age
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- Figure 23: Types of bread eaten in household, by age, April 2011-June 2012
- Figure 24: Household frequency use of bread, by age, April 2011-June 2012
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- Figure 25: Types of bread eaten in household, April 2007-June 2012
- Popularity of breakfast options offers opportunity for bakeries
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- Figure 26: Household consumption of selected breakfast items, by gender, April 2011-June 2012
- Home baking from packaged mixes popular among consumers
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- Figure 27: Household usage of at-home baking mixes, dough, and crusts, by gender, April 2011-June 2012
- Figure 28: Mean usage of at home baking mixes, dough, and crusts in past 30 days, April 2011-June 2012
In-store Bakery Usage
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- Key points
- In-store bakery usage rivals bread/dessert/pastry aisle usage
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- Figure 29: Purchase frequency, by bakery type, November 2012
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- Figure 30: Purchase in past year, by bakery type, by gender, November 2012
- Bakery goods hold stronger appeal to households with children
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- Figure 31: Purchase in past year, by bakery type, by presence of children in household, November 2012
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- Figure 32: Purchase in past year, by bakery type, by age, November 2012
Bakery Item Purchase by Outlet Type
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- Key points
- Sweets bought in in-store bakeries, bread in the grocery aisle
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- Figure 33: Bakery item purchase, by outlet type, November 2012
- Sweet sales threatened by competition from traditional bakeries
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- Figure 34: Sweet item purchase, by outlet type, November 2012
- Income plays a role in which in-store bakery is used
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- Figure 35: Bakery item purchase, by outlet type, by household income, November 2012
Why Consumers Prefer In-Store Bakeries
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- Key points
- Quality sets in-store bakery apart from the bakery aisle
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- Figure 36: Why consumers prefer in-store bakeries, November 2012
- Lackluster response to in-store bakery product taste and quality
- Draw of in-store bakery different for men, women
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- Figure 37: Why consumers prefer in-store bakeries, by gender, November 2012
Consumer Attitudes on Ideal In-Store Bakeries
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- Key points
- Consumers’ ideal in-store bakery has it all
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- Figure 38: Products and services important to consumers, November 2012
- Men and women value different aspects of customer service
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- Figure 39: Products and services important to consumers, by gender, November 2012
- Millennials over index on demand for all in-store bakery characteristics
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- Figure 40: Products and services important to consumers, by generation, November 2012
Consumer Interest in New Products
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- Key points
- Whole grain tops list of new product traits consumers want
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- Figure 41: Consumer interest in new products, by household income, November 2012
- Introduction of new types of products may attract nonusers
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- Figure 42: Consumer interest in new products, by purchase in past year, by bakery type, November 2012
- Breakfast solutions offer opportunity to expand in-store bakery reach
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- Figure 43: Consumer interest in new products, by generation, November 2012
Potential Promotional Opportunities
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- Key points
- Consumers not overly interested in any single bakery promotion
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- Figure 44: Promotional activity, November 2012
- Promotions more likely to persuade consumers with children
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- Figure 45: Promotional activity, by presence of children in household, November 2012
- Younger consumers more receptive to promotions, especially online
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- Figure 46: Promotional activity, by age, November 2012
CHAID Analysis of In-Store Bakery Promotions
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- Methodology
- Service - and health-oriented non-Hispanics most receptive to promotion
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- Figure 47: In-store bakeries—CHAID—Tree output, November 2012
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- Figure 48: Promotional activities of in store bakeries—CHAID—Table output, November 2012
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Asians/Pacific Islanders most likely to go elsewhere for baked goods
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- Figure 49: Bakery item purchase, by outlet type, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2012
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- Figure 50: Why consumers prefer in-store bakeries, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2012
- Better-for-you and breakfast bakery goods more appealing to Hispanics
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- Figure 51: Consumer interest in new products, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2012
- Hispanics, Asians/Pacific Islanders best to target with online marketing
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- Figure 52: Promotional activity, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2012
Appendix: Market Drivers
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- Consumer confidence
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- Figure 53: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
- Food cost pressures
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- Figure 54: Changes in USDA Food Price Indexes, 2010-13
- Obesity
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- Figure 55: U.S. Obesity, by age group, 2008 and 2012
- Childhood and teen obesity—highest in decades
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- Figure 56: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
- Racial, ethnic population growth
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- Figure 57: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
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- Figure 58: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
- Shifting U.S. demographics
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- Figure 59: Population, by age, 2007-17
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- Figure 60: Households, by presence of own children, 2002-12
- Unemployment
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- Figure 61: U.S. Unemployment Rate, by month, 2002-13
- Figure 62: U.S. Unemployment and underemployment rates, 2007-13
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- Figure 63: Number of employed civilians in U.S., in thousands, 2007-13
Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Figure 64: Purchase frequency, by bakery type, November 2012
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- Figure 65: Purchase frequency, by bakery type, by age, November 2012
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- Figure 66: Purchase frequency, by bakery type, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2012
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- Figure 67: Purchase in past year, by bakery type, by gender, November 2012
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- Figure 68: Purchase in past year, by bakery type, by age, November 2012
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- Figure 69: Purchase in past year, by bakery type, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2012
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- Figure 70: Purchase in past year, by bakery type, by region, November 2012
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- Figure 71: Bakery item purchase, by outlet type, by gender, November 2012
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- Figure 72: Bakery item purchase, by outlet type, by age, November 2012
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- Figure 73: Bakery item purchase, by outlet type, by gender and age, November 2012
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- Figure 74: Bakery item purchase, by outlet type, by household size, November 2012
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- Figure 75: Bakery item purchase, by outlet type, by presence of children in household, November 2012
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- Figure 76: Bakery item purchase, by outlet type, by parents and children and age, November 2012
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- Figure 77: Breads purchase, by outlet type, by gender, November 2012
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- Figure 78: Breads purchase, by outlet type, by age, November 2012
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- Figure 79: Breads purchase, by outlet type, by household income, November 2012
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- Figure 80: Breads purchase, by outlet type, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2012
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- Figure 81: Breads purchase, by outlet type, by presence of children in household, November 2012
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- Figure 82: Breads purchase, by outlet type, by generation, November 2012
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- Figure 83: Sweets purchase, by outlet type, by age, November 2012
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- Figure 84: Sweets purchase, by outlet type, by household income, November 2012
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- Figure 85: Sweets purchase, by outlet type, by Hispanic origin, November 2012
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- Figure 86: Sweets purchase, by outlet type, by presence of children in household, November 2012
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- Figure 87: Sweets purchase, by outlet type, by generation, November 2012
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- Figure 88: Consumer interest in new products, November 2012
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- Figure 89: Consumer interest in new products, by gender, November 2012
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- Figure 90: Consumer interest in new products, by age, November 2012
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- Figure 91: Consumer interest in new products, by presence of children in household, November 2012
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- Figure 92: Why consumers prefer in-store bakeries, by household income, November 2012
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- Figure 93: Why consumers prefer in-store bakeries, by generation, November 2012
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- Figure 94: Why consumers prefer in-store bakeries, by bakery item purchase, by outlet type, November 2012
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- Figure 95: Why consumers prefer in-store bakeries, by bakery item purchase, by outlet type, November 2012
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- Figure 96: Promotional activity, by gender, November 2012
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- Figure 97: Promotional activity, by household income, November 2012
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- Figure 98: Promotional activity, by generation, November 2012
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- Figure 99: Promotional activity, by purchase in past year, by bakery type, November 2012
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- Figure 100: Products and services important to consumers, by age, November 2012
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- Figure 101: Products and services important to consumers, by household income, November 2012
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- Figure 102: Products and services important to consumers, by Hispanic origin, November 2012
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- Figure 103: Products and services important to consumers, by presence of children in household, November 2012
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- Figure 104: Promotional activity, by products and services important to consumers, November 2012
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Appendix: Trade Associations
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