Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Restaurant sales took off in 2012
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- Figure 1: U.S. restaurant sales, at current prices, 2007-12
- Limited-service restaurants outperformed full-service, but the latter saw a significant lift
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- Figure 2: U.S. restaurant sales, at current prices, by segment, 2012
- Restaurant sales are expected to reach $550 billion in 2017
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- Figure 3: U.S. restaurant sales, fan chart, 2007-17
- Market factors
- Economics show mixed signs
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- Figure 4: Consumer sentiment, January 2007-November 2012
- Demographics look positive for foodservice
- 2013 look ahead at menu/operational trends
- Menu insights
- Beef is what’s for dinner
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- Figure 5: Top 10 menu item dishes at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2012
- Sushi and burgers present opportunity to increase prices
- Among beverages, shakes are hot
- The consumer
- Consumers most gravitate toward fast food and pizza
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- Figure 6: Restaurant usage percentage, October 2012
- Consumers state their dining out plans for 2013
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- Figure 7: Dining out plans for 2013, October 2012
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How will high obesity rates affect the restaurant industry?
- Will the severe drought of 2012 have lasting effects on the industry?
- How bullish are consumers on their restaurant spending for 2013?
- What menu claims are currently resonating?
- What are the biggest restaurant choice influence factors for Millennials?
Insights and Opportunities
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- Help kids’ menus
- Time for tea
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- Figure 8: Top non-alcoholic beverages on menus at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2012
- Welcome Hispanics
Trend Applications
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- Inspire Trend: Moral Brands
- Inspire Trend: Guiding Choice
- 2015 Trend: Access Anything, Anywhere
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Consumers spent a lot more at restaurants in 2012
- Sales and forecast of restaurants
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- Figure 9: U.S. restaurant sales, at current prices, 2007-17
- Figure 10: U.S. restaurant sales, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
- Sales and forecast of limited-service restaurants
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- Figure 11: U.S. limited-service restaurant sales, at current prices, 2007-17
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- Figure 12: U.S. limited-service restaurant sales, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
- Sales and forecast of full-service restaurants
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- Figure 13: U.S. full-service restaurant sales, at current prices, 2007-17
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- Figure 14: U.S. full-service restaurant sales, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 15: U.S. restaurant sales, fan chart, 2007-17
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Economic indicators show some improvement
- Unemployment rate declines slightly, but remains high
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- Figure 16: Incidence of unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-November 2012
- Consumer sentiment on the rise
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- Figure 17: Consumer sentiment, January 2007-November 2012
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- Figure 18: spending attitudes, October 2012
- Restaurant Performance Index falls below 100
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- Figure 19: Restaurant Performance Index, February 2009-October 2012
- Affordable Care Act
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- Figure 20: Restaurant choice influence factors, by gender and age, October 2012
- Obesity drives changes
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- Figure 21: Overweight and obesity rates for adults by race/ethnicity, 2010
- Figure 22: Dining out attitudes, October 2011 and October 2012
- Population shift reflects differing habits and attitudes
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- Figure 23: U.S. population, by age, 2006-16
- Figure 24: Restaurant usage, by generation, October 2012
- Hispanics will make their mark
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- Figure 25: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
- Figure 26: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2010
2013 Look Ahead
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- Key points
- Commodity prices shake up protein usage
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- Figure 27: Per capita consumption of beef, pork, and chicken, in pounds, 2007-13
- Smaller chicken portions take over
- Chicken sandwiches get burger treatment
- Peanut butter becomes an attractive protein
- Beverages get major attention
- Alcohol and then some
- Coffee is the new snack and dessert
- Carbonating everything
- Clean food labels
- Better treatment of animals
- Better treatment of the earth
- Food anywhere, anytime!
- Morning and late-night business are open targets for some
- Going where the business is
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- Figure 28: Restaurant usage, by age, October 2012
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview of the brand landscape
- Television ads
- Burger King
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- Figure 29: Burger King, First Craving television ad, 2012
- Applebee’s
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- Figure 30: Applebee’s, Your Inflatable Ticket television ad, 2012
- Denny’s
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- Figure 31: Denny’s, America the Great television ad, 2012
- Taco Bell
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- Figure 32: Taco Bell, Love it or We’ll Replace it television ad, 2012
- Olive Garden
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- Figure 33: Olive Garden, Today & Tomorrow television ad, 2012
- Cause marketing
- Loyalty programs
- Meal deals
Social Media—Dining Out: A 2013 Look Ahead
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- Key points
- Key social media metrics
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- Figure 34: Key brand metrics, November 2012
- Market overview
- Brand usage and awareness
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- Figure 35: Usage and awareness of selected restaurant brands, October 2012
- Interaction with brands
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- Figure 36: Interaction with restaurant brands, October 2012
- Motivations for interactions with brands
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- Figure 37: Why people interact with restaurant brands, October 2012
- Online conversations
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- Figure 38: Percentage of consumer conversation, by selected restaurant brands, Aug. 27- Nov. 27, 2012
- Figure 39: Online mentions, selected restaurant brands, percent of total daily mentions, by day, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
- Where are people talking about restaurant brands?
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- Figure 40: Mentions by page type, selected restaurant brands, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
- What are people talking about?
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- Figure 41: Mentions by type of conversation, selected restaurant brands, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
- Figure 42: Major areas of discussion surrounding restaurant brands, by day, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
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- Figure 43: Major areas of discussion surrounding restaurant brands, by page type, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
- Brand analysis
- McDonald’s
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- Figure 44: McDonald’s, key social media indicators, November 2012
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Pizza Hut
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- Figure 45: Pizza Hut, key social media indicators, November 2012
- Key online campaigns
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- Figure 46: Pizza Hut Twitter Mention, October 2012
- What we think
- Starbucks
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- Figure 47: Starbucks, key social media indicators, November 2012
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Chipotle
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- Figure 48: Chipotle, key social media indicators, November 2012
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Chili’s
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- Figure 49: Chili’s, key social media indicators, November 2012
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Panera Bread
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- Figure 50: Panera Bread, key social media indicators, November 2012
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Five Guys
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- Figure 51: 5 Guys, key social media indicators, November 2012
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Morton’s the Steakhouse
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- Figure 52: Morton’s the Steakhouse, key social media indicators, November 2012
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
Menu Insights Analysis—Top Menu Items
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- Key points
- Beef shifts reflect commodity prices
- Chicken picks up some slack
- Fish fits well in a BFY future
- Breakfast sandwiches continue to rise
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- Figure 53: Top 10 menu item dishes at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2012
- Menu item prices
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- Figure 54: Top 10 menu item dishes at restaurants, by incidence and price, Q3 2009-Q3 2012
- Beverage menu shows opportunity for growth
- Smoothies are versatile
- Milkshakes play to snackable and dessert indulgence
- Lemonade hosts a variety of flavors
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- Figure 55: Top 10 non-alcoholic beverages on menus at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2012
- Cocktails increase 27% in three years
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- Figure 56: Top 10 alcoholic cocktail beverages on menus at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2012
Menu Insights Analysis—Top Menu Item Claims
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- Key points
- “Gluten free” becomes top menu item claim
- Nostalgic claims come on strong
- Not big on healthy
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- Figure 57: Top 10 menu item claims at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2012
- Ingredient claims favor “light”
- Terms of yesteryear
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- Figure 58: Top 10 menu health-oriented ingredient claims at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2012
Restaurant Usage
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- Key points
- Restaurant definitions
- Fast food and pizza restaurants draw the most customers
- Millennials are big restaurant fans
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- Figure 59: Restaurant usage, by gender and age, October 2012
- High-income earners not as price sensitive
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- Figure 60: Restaurant usage, by household income, October 2012
- Midwest presents opportunities for fast food chains
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- Figure 61: Restaurant usage, by region, October 2012
Ordering and Eating Logistics
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- Key points
- Eating on premise is much more common than drive-thru
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- Figure 62: Ordering and eating logistics, by gender and age, October 2012
- High-income earners most apt to eat on premise
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- Figure 63: Ordering and eating logistics, by household income, October 2012
Dining Out and Spending Plans
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- Key points
- Few plan to dine out more in 2013
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- Figure 64: Dining out plans for 2013, by gender and age, October 2012
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- Figure 65: Dining out plans for 2013, by household income, October 2012
- Sit-down dining gets the nod
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- Figure 66: Restaurant segment plans for 2013, October 2012
- Most will look for less expensive dining options
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- Figure 67: Restaurant spending plans, by gender and age, October 2012
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- Figure 68: Restaurant spending plans, by household income, October 2012
Influence Factors
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- Key points
- Calorie posting and environmental issues influence choices
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- Figure 69: Restaurant choice influence factors, October 2012
- What Millennials want, they should get
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- Figure 70: Restaurant choice influence factors, by gender and age, October 2012
- Figure 71: Restaurant choice influence factors, by household income, October 2012
- Technology is important to those planning to dine out more
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- Figure 72: Restaurant choice influence factors, by dining out plans for 2013, October 2012
Attitudes Toward Spending and Dining Out
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- Key points
- The economy hinders dining out spending
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- Figure 73: spending attitudes, by gender and age, October 2012
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- Figure 74: spending attitudes, by dining out plans, October 2012
- Cravings and price are determining factors
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- Figure 75: Dining out attitudes, by gender and age, October 2012
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- Figure 76: Dining out attitudes, by household income, October 2012
- Figure 77: Dining out attitudes, by dining out plans for 2013, October 2012
Beverage Purchase Behavior
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- Key points
- Soft drinks play an important role on the menu
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- Figure 78: Non-alcoholic beverage purchase behavior, October 2012
- Millennial men are beverages’ best customers
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- Figure 79: Non-alcoholic beverage purchase behavior, by gender and age, October 2012
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- Figure 80: Non-alcoholic beverage purchase behavior, by household income, October 2012
- Most adults do not order alcohol when they dine out
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- Figure 81: Alcoholic beverage purchase behavior, October 2012
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- Figure 82: Alcoholic beverage purchase behavior, by gender and age, October 2012
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- Figure 83: Alcoholic beverage purchase behavior, by annual household income, October 2012
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Restaurant usage
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- Figure 84: Restaurant usage, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
- Ordering and eating logistics
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- Figure 85: Ordering and eating logistics, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
- Dining out and spending plans
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- Figure 86: Dining out plans for 2013, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
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- Figure 87: Restaurant spending plans, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
- Influence factors
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- Figure 88: Restaurant choice influence factors, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
- Attitudes toward dining out
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- Figure 89: Dining out attitudes, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
Cluster Analysis
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- Struggling Dynamos
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Health Buffs
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Steady Stoics
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristic tables
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- Figure 90: Target clusters, October 2012
- Figure 91: Restaurant usage, by target clusters, October 2012
- Figure 92: Ordering and eating logistics, by target clusters, October 2012
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- Figure 93: Dining out plans for 2013, by target clusters, October 2012
- Figure 94: Restaurant spending plans, by target clusters, October 2012
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- Figure 95: Restaurant choice influence factors, by target clusters, October 2012
- Figure 96: Spending attitudes, by target clusters, October 2012
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- Figure 97: Dining out attitudes, by target clusters, October 2012
- Figure 98: Beverage purchase behavior, by target clusters, October 2012
- Cluster demographic tables
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- Figure 99: Target clusters, by demographic, October 2012
- Cluster methodology
Custom Consumer Groups—Presence of Children
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- Key points
- Segments should plan for families
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- Figure 100: Restaurant usage, by presence of children in household, October 2012
- Price promotions remain important
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- Figure 101: Dining out plans for 2013, by presence of children in household, October 2012
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- Figure 102: Restaurant spending plans, by presence of children in household, October 2012
- Healthy kids’ meals is most important
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- Figure 103: Restaurant choice influence factors, by presence of children in household, October 2012
- Speed and convenience mean everything
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- Figure 104: Dining out and spending attitudes, by presence of children in household, October 2012
- Go premium on beverages to pick up some profits
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- Figure 105: Beverage purchase behavior, by presence of children in household, October 2012
Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Restaurant usage
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- Figure 106: Restaurant usage, by gender, October 2012
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- Figure 107: Restaurant usage, by dining out plans for 2013, October 2012
- Ordering and eating logistics
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- Figure 108: Ordering and eating logistics, by gender, October 2012
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- Figure 109: Ordering and eating logistics, by age, October 2012
- Dining out and spending plans
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- Figure 110: Dining out plans for 2013, by gender, October 2012
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- Figure 111: Dining out plans for 2013, by age, October 2012
- Restaurant spending plans
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- Figure 112: Restaurant spending plans, by age, October 2012
- Influence factors
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- Figure 113: Restaurant choice influence factors, by gender, October 2012
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- Figure 114: Restaurant choice influence factors, by age, October 2012
- Attitudes toward dining out and spending
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- Figure 115: Dining out attitudes, October 2012
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- Figure 116: Dining out and spending attitudes, by gender, October 2012
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- Figure 117: Dining out and spending attitudes, by age, October 2012
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- Figure 118: Dining out and spending attitudes, by region, October 2012
- Beverage purchase behavior
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- Figure 119: Beverage purchase behavior, by age, October 2012
Appendix: Social Media—Restaurants
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- Brand usage and awareness
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- Figure 120: Usage and awareness of the Five Guys brand, October 2012
- Figure 121: Usage and awareness of the McDonald’s brand, October 2012
- Figure 122: Usage and awareness of the chipotle brand, October 2012
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- Figure 123: Usage and awareness of the Panera Bread brand, October 2012
- Figure 124: Usage and awareness of the Chili's brand, October 2012
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- Figure 125: Usage and awareness of the Pizza Hut brand, October 2012
- Figure 126: Usage and awareness of the Morton's the Steakhouse brand, October 2012
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- Figure 127: Usage and awareness of the Starbucks brand, October 2012
- Interaction with brands
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- Figure 128: Interaction with the Five Guys brand, by demographics, October 2012
- Figure 129: Interaction with the McDonald's brand, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 130: Interaction with the Chipotle brand, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 131: Interaction with the Panera Bread brand, by demographics, October 2012
- Figure 132: Interaction with the Chili's brand, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 133: Interaction with the Pizza Hut brand, by demographics, October 2012
- Figure 134: Interaction with the Starbucks brand, by demographics, October 2012
- Motivations for interaction
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- Figure 135: Reason for interaction with the McDonald’s brand, by demographics, October 2012
- Figure 136: Reason for interaction with the Pizza Hut brand, by demographics, October 2012
- Online conversations
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- Figure 137: Percentage of consumer conversation, by restaurant brands, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
- Figure 138: Online mentions, by restaurant brands, by day, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
- Figure 139: Mentions by page type, selected restaurant brands, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
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- Figure 140: Online mentions, by selected restaurant brands, by type of conversation, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
- Figure 141: Major areas of discussion surrounding restaurant brands, by day, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
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- Figure 142: Major areas of discussion surrounding restaurant brands, by type of website, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
Appendix: Trade Associations
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