Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Coffee remains staple household purchase for most consumers
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- Figure 1: Coffee purchase by type, June 2012
- Ground, single-cup lead daily consumption preferences
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- Figure 2: Every day consumption of different types of coffee at home, June 2012
- One-cup-at-a-time convenience fueling category growth
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- Figure 3: Total U.S. retail sales of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2010 and 2012
- Figure 4: Sales and forecast of single-cup coffee, at current prices, 2007-17
- Commodity cost rollercoaster on downslope—for now
- Coffee market sales to stabilize through 2017
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- Figure 5: Fan chart forecast of coffee market, at current prices, 2007-17
- Price combined with usual brand, roast most important to consumers
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- Figure 6: Factors influencing coffee purchase behavior, June 2012
- Other FDMx channel attracts the most coffee buyers
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- Figure 7: U.S. retail sales of coffee in supermarkets and other FDMx, at current prices, 2007-12
- RTD segment reinvigorated by multiserving innovation
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- Figure 8: FDMx sales of ready-to-drink coffee, by market share of leading brands, 52 weeks ending July 8, 2012
- Single-origin releases could be next frontier for premium coffee
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How can coffee manufacturers encourage trial of new varieties?
- What RTD innovations will challenge Frappuccino’s dominance?
- How long can the single-cup market continue its meteoric rise?
Insights and Opportunities
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- Bring drinkers home with coffeehouse-inspired CPG
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- Figure 9: Coffee preparation by quarter, Q2 2011-12
- Fuel all-day consumption with a variety of options
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- Figure 10: Attitude toward coffee, by age, June 2012
- Single-origin coffee could be the next frontier for educated drinkers
- K-Cup patent expiration might heat up single-cup competition
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Brand Review
- Trend: The Suite Life
- 2015 Trend: Old Gold
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Commodity cost changes cause retail prices to fluctuate
- Single-cup coffee takes second place in format choice
- RTD performance dependent upon successful innovations, retail placement
- Sales and forecast of U.S. retail coffee market
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- Figure 11: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of U.S. retail coffee market, at current prices, 2007-17
- Figure 12: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 13: Fan chart forecast of coffee market, at current prices, 2007-17
- Walmart sales
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Asian, Hispanic population growth beneficial for coffee performance
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- Figure 14: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
- Coffee curiosity from younger consumers could spell future success
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- Figure 15: Population, by age, 2007-17
- Decline in restaurant performance likely to boost at-home sales
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- Figure 16: Restaurant Performance Index, January 2009-July 2012
- Disposable income rebound could brew improved premium sales
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- Figure 17: Real Disposable Income, January 2007-July 2012
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Energy drinks slated for growth, but not from teens
- Carbonated soft drinks continue to provide caffeine buzz
- Healthy consciences turn consumers toward tea
- Coffeehouses and donut shops continue to cater to caffeine seekers
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Dedication to tradition translates to roasted coffee’s success
- Single-cup segment poised to brew up new sales
- Instant, RTD markets in need of innovations
- Coffee sales, by segment
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- Figure 18: Sales of coffee in the U.S., segmented by type, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance—Roasted Coffee
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- Key points
- Roasted coffee to continue leading category
- Sales and forecast of roasted coffee
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- Figure 19: Total U.S. FDMx sales of roasted coffee, 2007-17
- Roasted coffee category led by ground caffeinated options
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- Figure 20: Usage of ground or whole bean coffee, by age, January 2011-March 2012
- Figure 21: Usage of ground or whole bean coffee, February 2007-March 2012
- Whole bean usage most popular with $150K+
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- Figure 22: Usage of ground or whole bean coffee, by household income, January 2011-March 2012
Segment Performance—Single-cup Coffee
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- Key points
- New consumers boost the single-cup market
- Sales and forecast of single-cup coffee
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- Figure 23: Sales and forecast of single-cup coffee, at current prices, 2007-17
- Single-cup segment: Is it still developing or just a fad?
Segment Performance—Instant Coffee
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- Key points
- Core consumers not enough to drive further growth for instant coffee
- Sales and forecast of instant coffee
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- Figure 24: Sales and forecast of instant coffee, at current prices, 2007-17
- For increased success, instant should capitalize on its upsides
- Hispanic, Asian, black consumers most likely to opt for instant
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- Figure 25: Usage of instant coffee, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011-March 2012
- Decaf, unflavored are most popular varieties
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- Figure 26: Usage of instant coffee, by age, January 2011-March 2012
- Figure 27: Usage of instant flavored coffee mixes, January 2011-March 2012
Segment Performance—RTD Coffee
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- Key points
- One success story shows opportunity within RTD coffee
- Sales and forecast of RTD coffee
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- Figure 28: Sales and forecast of RTD coffee, at current prices, 2007-17
- Burst—or void—of new products could change RTD’s future
- Young women among RTD coffee fans
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- Figure 29: Usage of ready-to-drink coffee, by gender and age, January 2011-March 2012
- Asians, Hispanics are a ready audience for RTD coffee
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- Figure 30: Usage of ready-to-drink coffee, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011-March 2012
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Consumers play “price is right” by shopping multiple channels
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- Figure 31: Total U.S. retail sales of coffee, at current prices, 2007-12
- Coffee shoppers embrace other outlets
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- Figure 32: Total U.S. retail sales of coffee, by channel, at current prices, 2010-12
- Single-cup coffee spurs realignment of retail placement standards
Retail Channels—Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Price increases, single-cup expansion fueling supermarkets
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- Figure 33: U.S. supermarket sales of coffee, at current prices, 2007-12
- Private label single-cup presents sales opportunity
Retail Channels—Other FDMx
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- Key points
- Evolving shopping habits benefit channel
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- Figure 34: U.S. sales of coffee, through other retail channels, at current prices, 2007-12
- Price, convenience driving other FDMx traffic
Retail Channels—Drug Stores
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- Key points
- Channel should emphasize food and beverage selections
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- Figure 35: U.S. Drug store sales of coffee, at current prices, 2007-12
- Private label could provide price tier options
Retail Channels—Natural Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Artisan, local, fair trade lead booming sales
- Sales of coffee in the natural channel
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- Figure 36: Natural supermarket sales of coffee, at current prices, 2010-12*
- RTD remains small beans in natural channel
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- Figure 37: Natural supermarket sales of coffee, by segment, 2010 and 2012*
- Organic coffee outsells conventional in channel
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- Figure 38: Natural supermarket sales of coffee, by organic, 2010 and 2012*
- Fair trade finds niche in natural
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- Figure 39: Natural supermarket sales of coffee, by fair trade, 2010 and 2012*
- Local brands dominate channel sales
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- J.M. Smucker leads category thanks to Folgers
- Kraft Foods Group showcases sales rise, market share drop
- Starbucks gains slight market share at retail
- Green Mountain continues impressive growth streak
- NACP’s Starbucks-branded RTD products face competition
- Nestlé’s instant brands keep it afloat
- Manufacturer U.S. coffee sales
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- Figure 40: FDMx sales of coffee, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2011 and 2012
Brand Share—Roasted Coffee
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- Key points
- Roast segment grows with help from price increases
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- Figure 41: FDMx sales of roast coffee, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2011 and 2012
- Folgers, Maxwell House top brand choices for consumers
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- Figure 42: Usage of ground or whole bean coffee, Top 10, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011-March 2012
- Positive sales for J.M. Smucker’s Folgers, Dunkin’ Donuts brands
- Maxwell House releases “fresh” packaging designs
- Retail launch of Gevalia provides premium entry for Kraft Foods
Brand Share—Single-cup Coffee
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- Key points
- GMCR dominate sales with a stable of single-cup options
- Licensees Starbucks, Folgers ride Keurig’s rising tide
- Private label single-cup could reshape market share
- Potential exists for new single-cup brewing systems
- Manufacturer sales of single-cup coffee
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- Figure 43: FDMx sales of single-cup coffee, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2011 and 2012
Brand Share—Instant Coffee
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- Key points
- Instant’s popularity proves slightly less soluble
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- Figure 44: Coffee segment consumption from 2007-12
- Manufacturer sales of instant coffee
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- Figure 45: Manufacturer sales of instant coffee, 2011 and 2012
- Starbucks VIA causes consumers to shuffle instant usage
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- Figure 46: Usage of instant coffee, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2011-March 2012
- Nescafé Clasico targets Hispanics with bilingual packaging
- Instant format new focus for Starbucks
- Packaging facelifts aim to attract new audiences
- Instant flavored mixes capitalize on flavor fans
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- Figure 47: Usage of instant flavored coffee mixes, January 2011-March 2012
Brand Share—RTD Coffee
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- Key points
- Starbucks RTDs lose share as consumers turn to new RTD options
- Manufacturer sales of RTD coffee
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- Figure 48: FDMx sales of ready-to-drink coffee, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2011 and 2012
- Multiserving International Delight Iced Coffee sees early success
- Opportunity awaits as other brands surpass Starbucks
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- Figure 49: Usage of ready-to-drink coffee, by age, January 2011-March 2012
- Innovations try to grab RTD coffee spotlight
Innovations and Innovators
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- Refined consumers drawn to origin-specific blends
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- Figure 50: Product claims for new coffee launches, July 18, 2011-July 18, 2012
- Coconut-water-infused options refresh stagnant RTD segment
- Single-cup brewers go beyond hot brewed coffee
Marketing Strategies
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- Brand analysis: Folgers
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- Figure 51: Brand analysis of Folgers, 2012
- Online initiatives
- TV presence
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- Figure 52: Folgers, Best Part, TV ad, 2012
- Brand analysis: Maxwell House
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- Figure 53: Brand analysis of Maxwell House, 2012
- Online initiatives
- TV presence
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- Figure 54: Maxwell House, Sippy Cup, TV ad, 2012
- Figure 55: Maxwell House, Mugs, TV AD, 2012
- Brand analysis: Gevalia
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- Figure 56: Brand analysis of Gevalia, 2011
- Online initiatives
- TV presence
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- Figure 57: Gevalia, Cup of Johan, TV AD, 2012
- Figure 58: Gevalia, Piper, TV AD, 2012
- Print and other
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- Figure 59: Gevalia coupon mail insert Summer 2012, front and back
- Brand analysis: Starbucks
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- Figure 60: Brand analysis of Starbucks, 2012
- Online initiatives
- TV presence
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- Figure 61: Starbucks, VIA, TV AD, 2012
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- Figure 62: Starbucks K-Cup coupon insert, summer 2012
- Figure 63: Starbucks Food Network Magazine Ad, October 2012
The Consumer—Usage and Types
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- Key points
- Upside potential exists in younger consumers’ varied habits
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- Figure 64: Coffee purchase by type, by age, June 2012
- Millennials rank high in coffee consumption across segments
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- Figure 65: Personal incidence of consuming different types of coffee at home, by generation, June 2012
- Price, brand, flavor, and blend lead purchase decisions
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- Figure 66: Factors influencing coffee purchase behavior, by gender, June 2012
- Coffee curiosity expands to roast types
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- Figure 67: Any personal coffee consumption by coffee roast type, by age, June 2012
- Drip coffee makers dominate brewer use, single-cup gaining
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- Figure 68: Household ownership of different types of coffee machines, by gender and age, June 2012
- The stronger the coffee preference, the less standard the brewer
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- Figure 69: Household ownership of different types of coffee machines, by roast type consumed, June 2012
- Multiple formats present entries for all income levels
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- Figure 70: Coffee purchase by type, by household income, June 2012
- Household size plays a role in coffee segment choice
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- Figure 71: Coffee purchase by type, by household size, June 2012
- Price, personal preferences determine purchases
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- Figure 72: Incidence of buying ground or whole bean coffee by packaging size, June 2012
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- Figure 73: Incidence of buying ground coffee by packaging size, by age, June 2012
- Northeast, West homes have highest incidence of coffee consumption
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- Figure 74: Personal incidence of consuming different types of coffee at home, by region, June 2012
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- Figure 75: Household ownership of different types of coffee machines, by region, June 2012
Gender Preferences for Coffee
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- Key points
- Whole bean has masculine edge
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- Figure 76: Personal incidence of consuming different types of coffee at home, by gender and age, June 2012
- Men more likely to use specialty brewers
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- Figure 77: Household ownership of different types of coffee machines, by gender, June 2012
- Figure 78: Any personal coffee consumption by coffee roast type, by gender and age, June 2012
- Men more likely to brew espresso, cappuccino
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- Figure 79: Any personal coffee consumption by coffee roast type, by gender and age, June 2012
- Instant mixes, RTD more popular with women
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- Figure 80: Personal incidence of consuming different types of coffee at home, by gender, June 2012
- Women brew with convenience, flavors in mind
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- Figure 81: Factors influencing coffee purchase behavior, by gender and age, June 2012
Consumer Attitudes and Behaviors
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- Key points
- Coffee curiosity has specific appeal in each segment
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- Figure 82: Factors influencing coffee purchase behavior, by personal incidence of consuming different types of coffee at home, June 2012
- RTD most likely to sell on promotion
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- Figure 83: Attitude toward coffee, by age, June 2012
- Coffee claims and positioning most popular with 18-35 year olds
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- Figure 84: Factors influencing coffee purchase behavior, by generation, June 2012
- Coffeehouse brands find sweet spot with younger consumers
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- Figure 85: Attitude toward coffee, by age, June 2012
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- Figure 86: Attitude toward coffee, by age, June 2012
- Coffee viewed as the original energy drink by some
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- Figure 87: Attitude toward coffee, by age, June 2012
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- Figure 88: Attitude toward coffee, by age, June 2012
- Younger consumers swapping energy drinks, soda for RTD coffee
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- Figure 89: Attitude toward coffee, by age, June 2012
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- Figure 90: Attitude toward coffee, by Hispanic origin and age, June 2012
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Hispanics, Asians consume the most coffee
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- Figure 91: Personal incidence of consuming different types of coffee at home, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
- Blacks least likely to own coffee maker, Asians prefer specialty brewers
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- Figure 92: Household ownership of different types of coffee machines, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
- Segments find niche with younger Hispanics
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- Figure 93: Personal incidence of consuming different types of coffee at home, by Hispanic origin and age, June 2012
- Country-of-origin labeling most important to Hispanics aged 18-44
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- Figure 94: Factors influencing coffee purchase behavior, by Hispanic origin and age, June 2012
- Coffee functionality most important to Hispanics aged 45+
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- Figure 95: Attitude toward coffee, by Hispanic origin and age, June 2012
- Asians most likely to embrace lighter coffee, coffeehouse brands
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- Figure 96: Any personal coffee consumption by coffee roast type, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
- Figure 97: Attitude toward coffee, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
- Coffee’s health halo a selling point for Asians
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- Figure 98: Attitude toward coffee, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
- Figure 99: Attitude toward coffee, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
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- Figure 100: Attitude toward coffee, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
- Cappuccino, blended coffee could attract more blacks
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- Figure 101: Any personal coffee consumption by coffee roast type, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012#
- Figure 102: Factors influencing coffee purchase behavior, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
SymphonyIRI Group Builders Panel Data IRI/Builders—Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Overview of coffee
- Ground coffee—Consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 103: Brand map, selected brands of ground coffee buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 104: Key purchase measures for the top brands of ground coffee, by household penetration, 2011*
- Ground decaffeinated coffee—Consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 105: Brand map, selected brands of ground decaffeinated coffee -buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 106: Key purchase measures for the top brands of ground decaffeinated coffee, by household penetration, 2011*
- Instant coffee—Consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 107: Brand map, selected brands of instant coffee buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 108: Key purchase measures for the top brands of instant coffee, by household penetration, 2011*
- Instant decaffeinated coffee—Consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 109: Brand map, selected brands of instant decaffeinated coffee, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 110: Key purchase measures for the top brands of instant decaffeinated coffee, by household penetration, 2011*
Appendix—Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Figure 111: Coffee purchase, by type, June 2012
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- Figure 112: Personal incidence of consuming different types of coffee at home, June 2012
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- Figure 113: Total U.S. retail sales of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2010 and 2012
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- Figure 114: Factors influencing coffee purchase behavior, June 2012
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- Figure 115: Population, by age, 2006-16
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- Figure 116: Total U.S. FDMx sales of roasted coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-12
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- Figure 117: Total U.S. FDMx sales of single-cup coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-12
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- Figure 118: Total FDMx sales of instant coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-12
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- Figure 119: Total U.S. FDMx sales of RTD coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-12
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- Figure 120: Natural supermarket sales of coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12*
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- Figure 121: Usage of ground or whole bean coffee, by age, January 2011-March 2012
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- Figure 122: Usage of ground or whole bean coffee, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011-March 2012
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- Figure 123: Usage of ground or whole bean coffee, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011-March 2012
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- Figure 124: Usage of ground or whole bean coffee, by household income, January 2011-March 2012
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- Figure 125: Usage of ground or whole bean coffee, by age, January 2011-March 2012
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- Figure 126: Usage of ground or whole bean coffee, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011-March 2012
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- Figure 127: Usage of instant coffee, by age, January 2011-March 2012
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- Figure 128: Usage of instant coffee, by household income, January 2011-March 2012
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- Figure 129: Usage of instant coffee, January 2011-March 2012
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- Figure 130: Usage of instant coffee, by age, January 2011-March 2012
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- Figure 131: Usage of ready-to-drink coffee, by age, January 2011-March 2012
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- Figure 132: Usage of ready-to-drink coffee, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011-March 2012
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- Figure 133: Usage of ground or whole bean coffee, February 2007-March 2012
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- Figure 134: Personal incidence of consuming different types of coffee at home, by age, June 2012
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- Figure 135: Coffee purchase by type, by gender and age, June 2012
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- Figure 136: Coffee purchase by type, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
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- Figure 137: Coffee purchase by type, by Hispanic origin and age, June 2012
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- Figure 138: Any personal coffee consumption by coffee roast type, by generation, June 2012
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- Figure 139: Any personal coffee consumption by coffee roast type, by gender and age, June 2012
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- Figure 140: Almost always/Frequently drink espressos or filter coffee , by age group, US, June 2012
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Appendix—SymphonyIRI Builders Panel Data Definitions
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- SymphonyIRI Consumer Network Metrics
Appendix—Trade Associations
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