Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- The market and forecast
- The nuts and dried fruit category benefits from consumer perceptions about health
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- Figure 1: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of nuts and dried fruit, at current prices, 2007-17
- Market shaped by the nuts segment; trail mix is small but growing fastest
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- Figure 2: Rate of change in current dollar sales, nuts and dried fruit, by segment, 2012-17
- Market factors
- The aging American population creates challenges for nuts and dried fruit
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- Figure 3: Percentage change in rate of U.S. population, by age groups, 2006-16
- Declines in households with children also could slow sales
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- Figure 4: Households with and without presence of children, by percentage of total, 2001-11
- Multicultural groups are forecast to grow at a faster rate than whites, total population
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- Figure 5: Population percent change, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
- Companies, brands, and innovations
- Private label has a strong presence; market very fragmented
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- Figure 6: Selected Manufacturer FDMx share of nuts and dried fruit, 2011*.
- Innovation has been strong; significant growth in new product introductions 2007-11
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- Figure 7: Nuts segment new product introductions, 2007-12*
- The consumer
- Nuts is an almost saturated category; dried fruit and trail mix have room to grow
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- Figure 8: Household consumption of snacks, by types eaten, April 2012
- Opportunity remains to better leverage all types of nuts
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- Figure 9: Consumption of nuts by top 6 types eaten, by presence of children, April 2012
- Fat content is still a concern, particularly for women
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- Figure 10: Attitudes toward health benefits/restrictions of nuts, by gender, April 2012
- Brand loyalty is weak and price is important; private label has strong offerings
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- Figure 11: Attitudes toward brand/buying behavior of nuts, by gender, April 2012
- Consumers aged 18-34 over index on almost all types of dried fruit consumption
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- Figure 12: Consumption of dried fruit by top 5 types eaten, by age, April 2012
- Despite overall healthy perception, more women limit dried fruit because of sugar
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- Figure 13: Attitudes toward health benefits/restrictions of dried fruit, by gender, April 2012
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How can nuts manufacturers and retailers increase the usage frequency of nuts?
- How can nut and dried fruit companies expand usage occasions beyond snacking?
Insights and Opportunities
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- Leverage product functionality specific to different consumer groups
- Healthy perception of nuts still leaves room for manufacturers to further educate consumers
- Companies could put more emphasis on benefits for specific groups
- Women
- Elderly
- Bottom line
- Opportunity to expand usage occasions beyond snacking
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Who are the Joneses?
- Consider this
- Bottom line
- Trend: Girly Men
- Consider this
- Bottom line
- 2015 Trend: East Meets West
- Consider this
- Bottom line
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Nuts and dried fruit continue to post positive results
- Future growth seen, depending on innovation, the economy, and health benefits
- Sales and forecast of nuts and dried fruit
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- Figure 14: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of market, at current prices, 2007-17
- Figure 15: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 16: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of nuts and dried fruit, at current prices, 2007-17
- Walmart sales
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Recent drought forecast to cause food price increases
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- Figure 17: Real personal disposable income, January 2007-April 2012
- Nuts can play a role to promote a healthy lifestyle
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- Figure 18: Age-adjusted prevalence of being overweight, obese, or extremely obese, among adults aged 20 or older, 1988-2008
- Figure 19: Prevalence of obesity among children/teens aged 2-19, 1976-2008
- Changes in demographics could positively influence the category
- The older population is increasing in number due to more Baby Boomers entering this age group
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- Figure 20: Population, by age, 2006-16
- Households with children decreasing; number of children per household increasing
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- Figure 21: Households, by presence of children younger than 18, 2001-11
- Household size is shrinking; larger households could have multiple generations
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- Figure 22: Households, by number of people in household, 2001-11
- Figure 23: Household consumption of nuts, by types of nuts, by household size, April 2012
- Multicultural groups, in particular Asians and Hispanics, important for future growth
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- Figure 24: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
- Figure 25: Average number of children in household, by race/Hispanic origin of householder, 2011
Competitive Context
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- Private label continues to pose a threat to branded competition
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- Figure 26: FDMX private label sales of nuts and dried fruit, 2006-11
- Figure 27: Attitudes toward nuts brand/buying behavior, by gender, April 2012
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- Figure 28: Attitudes toward brand/buying behavior of nuts, by age, April 2012
- Figure 29: Private label sales of nuts and dried fruit, 2010* and 2011*
- Competition from other “healthy” snacks draws near
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- Figure 30: Household Consumption of snacks by types eaten, by gender, April 2012
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- Figure 31: Attitudes toward nuts when compared to other snacks, by gender, April 2012
- Figure 32: Attitudes toward nuts when compared to other snacks, by age, April 2012
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Nuts dominates category, shaping its performance
- Sales of nuts and dried fruit, by segment
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- Figure 33: Total U.S. sales of nuts and dried fruit category, segmented by type, 2011 and 2012
Segment Performance—Nuts
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- Key points
- Nuts are perceived as healthy; but many are concerned with fat and caloric content
- Sales and forecast of nuts
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- Figure 34: Total sales and forecast for nuts, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance—Dried Fruit
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- Key points
- Insight on this section
- Sales and forecast of dried fruit
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- Figure 35: Total U.S. sales and forecast of dried fruit, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance—Trail Mix
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- Key points
- Trail mix experiences significant growth and forecast to continue
- Sales and forecast of trail mix
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- Figure 36: Total U.S. sales and forecast of trail mix, at current prices, 2007-17
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- A race of two horses, with a third lagging behind but gaining
- Sales of nuts and dried fruit, by channel
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- Figure 37: Total U.S. sales of nuts and dried fruit category, by channel, 2011 and 2012
Retail Channels—Supercenters, Warehouse Clubs, Dollar Stores, and Other Channel
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- Key points
- Competitive pricing drives sales
- Supercenters, warehouse clubs, dollar stores and other channels sales of nuts and dried fruit
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- Figure 38: Total U.S. supercenters, warehouse clubs, dollar stores and other channels sales of nuts and dried fruit, at current prices, 2007-12
Retail Channels—Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Supermarkets forecast to grow pending private label innovation
- To meet consumers’ desire for healthy eating, some supermarkets use nutritional systems
- Supermarkets sales of nuts and dried fruit
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- Figure 39: Total U.S. supermarkets sales of nuts and dried fruit, at current prices, 2007-12
Retail Channels—Drug Stores
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- Key points
- Drug stores focus more on food offerings, particularly on private label, and on price
- Drug stores sales of nuts and dried fruit
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- Figure 40: Drugstores sales of nuts and dried fruit, at current prices, 2007-12
Retail Channels—Natural Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Insights
- Sales of nuts and dried fruit in the natural channel
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- Figure 41: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and dried fruit, at current prices, 2009-11*
- Figure 42: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and dried fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-11*
- Natural channel sales of nuts, seeds and dried fruit by segment
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- Figure 43: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and dried fruit, by segment, 2009 and 2011*
- Natural channel sales of nuts, seeds and dried fruit, by organic
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- Figure 44: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and dried fruit, by organic, 2009 and 2011*
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Kraft Foods and Diamond Foods lead; private label owns close to a third of market
- Manufacturer sales of nuts and dried fruit
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- Figure 45: FDMx sales of nuts and dried fruit, 2010* and 2011*
Brand Share—Nuts
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- Key points
- Paramount Farms sees highest dollar sales, market share growth
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- Figure 46: Household usage of brands of nuts, by age, October 2010-November 2011
- Manufacturers sales of nuts
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- Figure 47: FDMx brand sales of nuts in the U.S., 2010* and 2011*
Brand Share—Dried Fruit
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- Key points
- Private label stands alone in growth with dollar sales, market share growth
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- Figure 48: Attitudes toward brand/buying behavior of dried fruit, by gender, April 2012
- Manufacturer sales of dried fruit
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- Figure 49: FDMx sales of dried fruit in the U.S., 2010* and 2011*
Brand Share—Trail Mix
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- Key points
- Diamond Foods sees the highest dollar sales increase, market share growth
- Manufacturer sales of trail mix
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- Figure 50: FDMx sales of trail mix, 2010* and 2011*
Innovations and Innovators
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- New product rollouts increase dramatically 2007-11; focus shifted
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- Figure 51: New product introductions for nuts, by claims, 2007-12*
- Nuts, seeds new products diverse, meet multiple needs
- Dried fruit emphasizes simplicity, functional attributes, premium
- Trail mix innovation focused on wholesomeness of ingredients
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview of the brand landscape
- Planters aggressively supports NUT-rition Men’s Health Mix
- TV ad focused on the “manliest mix” for the manliest men
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- Figure 52: Planters, “Men’s Nuts”, TV ad, 2012
- Print, social media complement TV advertising in supporting new line
- Kraft promotes “green” living, debuts biodiesel Planters Nutmobile
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- Figure 53: Brand analysis of Planters, 2012
- Paramount Farms continues its successful “Get Crackin’” campaign
- TV campaign reaches young adults with “out-of-the-box” approach
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- Figure 54: Paramount Farms, “Muppet gone green,” TV ad, 2012
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- Figure 55: Brand analysis of Paramount Farms, 2012
- Figure 56: Wonderful Pistachios, “The Winklevoss Twins,” TV ad, 2012
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- Figure 57: Brand analysis of Wonderful Pistachios, 2012
- Angry Bird “Get Crackin’” as well
- Blue Diamond focuses on TV ads that emphasize health and variety
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- Figure 58: Blue Diamond, “Roast”, TV ad, 2012
- Figure 59: Brand analysis of Blue Diamond Growers, 2012
- Sun-Maid Growers goes “Kung Fu”
- Sunsweet Growers touts the “superfruit” benefits of its plums
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- Figure 60: Sunsweet “Amazing,” TV ad, 2012
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- Figure 61: Brand analysis of Sunsweet, 2012
Snack Food Consumption
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- Key points
- Majority of snacks perceived as healthy; nuts rise to the top
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- Figure 62: Health perception for consumed snacks, March 2012
- Nuts in most households: opportunities exist by type
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- Figure 63: Household Consumption of snacks by types eaten, by age, April 2012
- More households with children use snacks
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- Figure 64: Household consumption of snacks by types eaten, by presence of children, April 2012
Types of Nuts Eaten, Frequency by Occasion
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- Key points
- Peanuts remain most popular nuts; almonds follow closely
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- Figure 65: Household consumption of nuts, by types eaten, by age, April 2012
- Households with kids over index on almost all types of nuts
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- Figure 66: Household consumption of nuts by types eaten, by presence of children, April 2012
- Nuts continue to be eaten as a snack by most consumers
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- Figure 67: Frequency of consumption of nuts, by eating occasion, by presence of children, April 2012
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- Figure 68: Frequency of personal consumption of nuts by eating occasion, by gender, April 2012
- The versatility of nuts could be leveraged more to expand usage occasions
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- Figure 69: Frequency of personal consumption by eating occasion, by age, April 2012
Attitudes toward Nuts
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- Key points
- Fat content in nuts still a concern, especially for women
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- Figure 70: Attitudes toward health benefits/restrictions of nuts, by gender, April 2012
- Functional benefits important
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- Figure 71: Interest in new nuts products, by gender, April 2012
- More consumers aged 25-34 limit consumption due to fat
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- Figure 72: Attitudes on health benefits/restrictions of nuts, interest in new products, by age, April 2012
Types of Dried Fruit and Trail Mix Eaten, Frequency
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- Key points
- Raisins still in the lead; cranberries follow closely
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- Figure 73: Household consumption of dried fruit by types eaten, by age, April 2012
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- Figure 74: Household Consumption of dried fruit by types eaten, by presence of children, April 2012
- Figure 75: Frequency of personal consumption of dried fruit by eating occasion, by age, April 2012
- Fewer consumers perceive trail mix as healthy
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- Figure 76: Household Consumption of snacks by types eaten, by age, April 2012
- 18-34 over index on most usage occasions of trail mix
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- Figure 77: Frequency of personal consumption of trail mix, by age, April 2012
Attitudes toward Dried Fruit
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- Key points
- Dried fruit seen healthy by most; more women limit it due to sugar
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- Figure 78: Attitudes toward health benefits/restrictions of dried fruit, by gender, April 2012
- Opportunities exist to better leverage freeze-dried fruit
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- Figure 79: Attitudes toward dried fruit, by age, April 2012
Impact of Race/Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Asians over index on consumption, for most occasions
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- Figure 80: Frequency of personal consumption, by eating occasion, by race, April 2012
- Sodium a concern for all multicultural groups, fat particularly for Asians
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- Figure 81: Attitudes toward nuts, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2012
- More blacks, Hispanics tend to switch between private label, brands
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- Figure 82: Attitudes toward nuts, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2012
- Asian and Hispanics over index on consumption of most types of dried fruit
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- Figure 83: Household consumption of dried fruit by types eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2012
- Figure 84: Personal consumption of dried fruit by eating occasion by race/Hispanic origin, April 2012
Key Household Purchase Measures—SymphonyIRI Builders Panel Analysis
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- Overview of snack nuts/seeds/corn nuts
- Snack nuts
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- Figure 85: Brand map, selected brands of snack nuts, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
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- Figure 86: Key purchase measures for the top brands of snack nuts, by household penetration, 2011*
- Baking nuts
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—baking nuts
- Brand map
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- Figure 87: Brand map, selected brands of baking nuts, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 88: Key purchase measures for the top brands of baking nuts, by household penetration, 2011*
- Overview of dried fruit
- Raisins
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—raisins
- Brand map
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- Figure 89: Brand map, selected brands of raisins, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 90: Key purchase measures for the top brands of raisins, by household penetration, 2011*
Appendix—Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Figure 91: Attitudes toward dried fruit, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2012
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- Figure 92: Frequency of eating trail mix, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2012
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Appendix—SymphonyIRI Builders Panel Data Definitions
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- SymphonyIRI Consumer Network Metrics
Appendix—Trade Associations
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