Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Market size and forecast for UK value sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2007-17
- The future
- Market factors
- Discretionary spending comes under consumer reassessment
- A growing need to engage the older population and one-person households
- Potential for healthier variants
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Unilever brands dominate the market
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- Figure 2: Brand shares in the UK tubs and blocks ice cream market, 2011
- NPD continues to drive the market
- Unilever dominates ad investment, despite decline in spend
- The consumer
- Penetration stands at more than eight in ten
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- Figure 3: Types of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt purchased, March 2012
- Treating is the most popular driver to consumption
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- Figure 4: Occasions when ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt eaten in the last 3 months, March 2012
- The majority are adventurous on flavours
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- Figure 5: Attitudes towards ice cream, March 2012
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How can the category stay ahead in the dessert occasion?
- How much of a threat does own-label pose to leading brands?
- How can NPD help to engage consumers in one-person households?
- How can the market attract the growing group of older consumers?
Future Opportunities
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- A Simple Balance for Health
- Power of One
- Brand Intervention
Internal Market Environment
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- Key points
- Health vs indulgence
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- Figure 6: Trends in lifestyle statements, 2007-11
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- Figure 7: Agreement with health-related lifestyle statements, 2007-11
- Cost savings replace brand loyalty for the majority
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- Figure 8: Agreement with cost-related lifestyle statements, 2007-11
- Sunshine hours remain above long-term average
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- Figure 9: Summer sunshine and rainfall trends, 2006-11
- Storage space could be an issue
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- Figure 10: Ownership of freezer and combined fridge/freezer, 2007-11
Broader Market Environment
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- Key points
- The 2012 recession is expected to be shallow…
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- Figure 11: Consumer expenditure at constant 2012 prices, 2007-17
- …but consumer pockets will remain under pressure
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- Figure 12: Consumers’ perceptions of their financial situation, February 2009-April 2012
- Demographic drivers
- Families’ strong position provides a boost to the sector
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- Figure 13: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2007-17
- Rise in ABs bodes well for future growth
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- Figure 14: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2007-17
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Ice cream competes with other heavyweight snacking markets
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- Figure 15: Performance of selected markets competing with ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2007-11
- Opportunities for in-home occasions
- Health remains an important consideration
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Innovation focuses on dairy-based products
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- Figure 16: NPD in ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by type, 2008-11
- Branded players lead NPD, but private label is catching up
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- Figure 17: NPD in ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt – branded vs. own-label, 2008-11
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- Figure 18: Top ten companies in ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt market, by NPD, 2009-12*
- Flavour trends
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- Figure 19: Top three flavours used in ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt market, 2008-11
- Children’s ice lollies
- Ice cream challenges the dessert market
- Ethical products and mini formats are a focus
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Inflation continues to affect the market
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- Figure 20: Market volume and value size and forecast for the total UK ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2007-17
- The future
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- Figure 21: Market size and forecast for UK retail volume sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2007-17
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- Figure 22: Market size and forecast for UK value sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2007-17
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Ice cream sector dominates
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- Figure 23: UK retail value sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by type, 2009-11
- Tubs and blocks remain the preferred ice cream format
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- Figure 24: UK retail value sales of ice cream, by format, 2009-11
Market Share
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- Key points
- Tubs market dominated by Unilever’s Ben & Jerry’s and Carte D’Or
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- Figure 25: Leading brands’ value shares in retail sales of tubs/blocks of ice cream, 2009-11
- Unilever maintains strong position in handheld
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- Figure 26: Leading brands’ value shares in retail handheld ice cream, 2009-11
Companies and Products
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- Fredericks Dairies
- General Mills (Häagen-Dazs)
- Green & Black’s
- Mars
- R&R
- Unilever
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Advertisers cut back expenditure
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- Figure 27: Total advertising expenditure in the ice cream market, 2008-11
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- Figure 28: Advertising expenditure, by sub-category, 2010 and 2011
- Unilever dominates adspend, but supermarkets invest more
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- Figure 29: Advertising expenditure, by top five advertisers, 2010 and 2011
- Advertisers increase investment in press advertising
- Premium brands invest in broad multimedia campaigns
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- Figure 30: Advertising expenditure, by top five brands, 2011
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 31: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the ice cream sector, May 2012
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand attitudes
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- Figure 32: Attitudes, by ice cream brand, May 2012
- Brand personality
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- Figure 33: Ice cream brand personality – macro image, May 2012
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- Figure 34: Ice cream brand personality – micro image, May 2012
- Brand experience
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- Figure 35: Ice cream brand usage, May 2012
- Figure 36: Satisfaction with various ice cream brands, May 2012
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- Figure 37: Consideration of ice cream brands, May 2012
- Figure 38: Consumer perceptions of current ice cream brand performance, May 2012
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- Figure 39: Ice cream brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, May 2012
- Brand index
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- Figure 40: Ice cream brand index, May 2012
- Figure 41: Ice cream brand index vs. recommendation, May 2012
- Target group analysis
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- Figure 42: Target groups, May 2012
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- Figure 43: Ice cream brand usage, by target groups, May 2012
- Group One – Conformists
- Group Two – Simply the Best
- Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
- Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
- Group Five – Individualists
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- The grocery chains dominate the market
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- Figure 44: UK retail sales of the ice cream market, 2009-11
Consumer – Usage of Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt
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- Key points
- Penetration stands at more than eight in ten
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- Figure 45: Types of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt bought, March 2012
- Consumption is geared towards light usage
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- Figure 46: Usage of ice cream in tubs and blocks in the last 12 months, 2009-11
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- Figure 47: Usage of ice cream bars, cones, tubs and sticks (including mini versions) in the last 12 months, 2009-11
- Families and larger households have above-average consumption…
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- Figure 48: Purchasing habits of ice cream, by presence of own children and household size, March 2012
- …as do ABs and higher earners
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- Figure 49: Purchasing habits of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt, by type, by socio-economic group and annual household income, March 2012
- Sorbet and frozen yogurt appeal to the 16-24s
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- Figure 50: Purchasing habits of sorbet and frozen yogurt, by age, March 2012
Consumer – Purchasing Habits
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- Key points
- More than nine in ten buy ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt from a supermarket
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- Figure 51: Locations from which ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt has been purchased, March 2012
- Potential to increase on-the-go consumption
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- Figure 52: Types of ice cream purchased by those who have bought ice cream from a restaurant, March 2012
Consumer – Occasions
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- Key points
- Treating is the most popular driver to consumption
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- Figure 53: Occasions when ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt eaten in the last 3 months, March 2012
- Women and the under-35s are more engaged with most ice cream occasions
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- Figure 54: Occasions when eaten ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt eaten in the last 3 months, by gender and age, March 2012
- In-home meal occasions pose a lucrative marketing opportunity
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- Figure 55: Average amount spent on occasions in the home when food and drink has been purchased, December 2011
Consumer – Behaviour
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- Key points
- A sizeable minority of consumers are brand-loyal…
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- Figure 56: Agreement with statements on ice cream, March 2012
- …although switching is commonplace when brands are on promotion
- The freezer cabinet does not seem to pose a barrier to purchase
- Space is a restriction for the smallest and largest households
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- Figure 57: Agreement with the statement ‘It’s hard to fit ice cream in my freezer’, by household size, March 2012
- Premium varieties struggle to justify their higher price points
- Appealing to health-conscious consumers could help
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- Figure 58: Index of agreement with selected statements on ice cream, by age (average = 100), March 2012
Consumer – Attitudes Towards Ice Cream
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- Key points
- The majority are adventurous on flavours
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- Figure 59: Attitudes towards ice cream, March 2012
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- Figure 60: Index of agreement with the statements ‘I would like to try new flavours/limited edition flavours’ and ‘I would like to try new flavours from a brand I typically buy’, by age (average = 100), March 2012
- Competing with other ‘indulgent’ categories
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- Figure 61: Agreement with the statement ‘Ice cream is less indulgent than other desserts (eg chocolate fondant)’, by age, March 2012
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- Figure 62: Agreement with the statement ‘Ice cream in board packaging (eg Häagen-Dazs) is of better quality than that in plastic tubs’, by annual household income, March 2012
- Health is not a concern for the sizeable minority
Consumer – Target Groups
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- Key points
- Four target groups
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- Figure 63: Target groups based on attitudes towards ice cream, March 2012
- Disengaged (29%)
- Health-Conscious (23%)
- Discerning (28%)
- On A Budget (20%)
Appendix – Internal Market Environment
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- Figure 64: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011
- Figure 65: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011
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- Figure 66: Body Mass Index among adults in England, 2005-10*
- Figure 67: Ownership of freezer and combined fridge/freezer, by demographics, 2011
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Appendix – Broader Market Environment
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- Figure 68: Consumer Confidence Index, January 2008-January 2012
- Figure 69: Trends in statements on price/brand, 2007-11
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- Figure 70: Trends and projections in the UK population, by age group, 2007-17
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Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 71: Best- and worst-case forecasts for ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 72: Best- and worst-case forecasts for ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by volume, 2012-17
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Appendix – Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Figure 73: Advertising expenditure, by media type, 2009-11
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Appendix – Brand Research
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- Figure 74: Brand usage, May 2012
- Figure 75: Brand commitment, May 2012
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- Figure 76: Brand momentum, May 2012
- Figure 77: Brand diversity, May 2012
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- Figure 78: Brand satisfaction, May 2012
- Figure 79: Brand recommendation, May 2012
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- Figure 80: Brand attitude, May 2012
- Figure 81: Brand image – macro image, May 2012
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- Figure 82: Brand image – micro image, May 2012
- Figure 83: Profile of target groups, by demographics, May 2012
- Figure 84: Psychographic segmentation, by target groups, May 2012
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- Figure 85: Brand usage, by target groups, May 2012
- Brand index
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- Figure 86: Brand index, May 2012
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Appendix – Consumer Usage of Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt
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- Figure 87: Most popular purchasing habits of ice cream, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 88: Next most popular purchasing habits of ice cream, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 89: Other purchasing habits of ice cream, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 90: Usage of ice cream in tubs and blocks in the last 12 months, by demographics, 2011
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- Figure 91: Usage of ice cream bars, cones, tubs and sticks (including mini versions) in the last 12 months, by demographics, 2011
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Appendix – Consumer – Purchasing Habits
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- Figure 92: Most popular locations from which ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt has been purchased, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 93: Next most popular locations from which ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt has been purchased, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 94: Locations from which ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt has been purchased, by most popular purchasing habits of ice cream, March 2012
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- Figure 95: Locations from which ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt has been purchased, by next most popular purchasing habits of ice cream, March 2012
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Appendix – Consumer – Occasions
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- Figure 96: Most popular occasions when eaten ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt eaten in the last 3 months, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 97: Next most popular occasions when eaten ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt eaten in the last 3 months, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 98: Grocery shopping habits, by demographics, February 2012
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Appendix – Consumer – Behaviour
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- Figure 99: Agreement with most popular statements on ice cream, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 100: Agreement with next most popular statements on ice cream, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 101: Agreement with other statements on ice cream, by demographics, March 2012
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Appendix – Attitudes Towards Ice Cream
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- Figure 102: Agreement with the statements ‘I would like to try new flavours/limited edition flavours’ and ‘I would like to try new flavours from a brand I typically buy’, by demographics, March 2012
- Figure 103: Agreement with the statements ‘Ice cream is less indulgent than other desserts’ and ‘I prefer ice cream cones/sticks to big tubs because they are more convenient’, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 104: Agreement with the statements ‘Ice cream in board packaging is of better quality than that in plastic tubs’ and ‘Mini formats of ice cream allow me to indulge on a more frequent basis’, by demographics, March 2012
- Figure 105: Agreement with the statements ‘I worry about health when eating ice cream’ and ‘I like the taste of 'light' variants’, by demographics, March 2012
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Appendix – Target Groups
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- Figure 106: Target groups, by demographics, March 2012
- Figure 107: Purchasing habits of ice cream, by target groups, March 2012
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- Figure 108: Locations from which ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt has been purchased, by target groups, March 2012
- Figure 109: Agreement with statements on ice cream, by target groups, March 2012
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- Figure 110: Occasions when eaten ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt in the last 3 months, by target groups, March 2012
- Figure 111: Attitudes towards statements on ice cream, by target groups, March 2012
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