Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising clips
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Price increases in 2011 contribute to the dollar growth; volume sales decline
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- Figure 1: Total U.S. sales of dairy and non-dairy milk, by segment share, 2011
- Private labels dominate sales
- Organic milk exhibited growth in 2011, but supply shortages may dampen demand
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- Figure 2: FDMx trend in dollar and volume sales of the top 3* refrigerated whole organic milk brands, 2007-11
- Non-dairy milk offers future growth opportunities
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- Figure 3: Annual growth/decline in the total U.S. sales of “other” segment, 2007-11
- Forecast
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- Figure 4: Forecast of dairy and non-dairy milk, at best-, worst-, and central-case scenarios, 2006-16
- Market factors
- Decline in households with children negatively influences the market
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- Figure 5: Households with and without presence of children, by percent of total, 2001-11
- Hispanics offer growth opportunities
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- Figure 6: Rate of change in the U.S. population, by Hispanic origin, 2006-16
- Companies, brands, and innovation
- Private labels account for the majority of market sales
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- Figure 7: Selected FDMx manufacturers sales of dairy and non-dairy milk, 2011 and 2012
- Pace of innovation healthy in 2011
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- Figure 8: New milk products count, 2006-11
- The consumer
- By household usage, milk is a mature category
- But, by personal usage rate, there is room for growth
- Almond milk usage rate vies with that of soy milk
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- Figure 9: Incidence of personally drinking milk and milk alternatives, December 2011
- Household with children are key whole milk and chocolate milk consumers
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- Figure 10: Household usage of milk by type, by presence of children, July 2010-September 2011
- Hispanic households and those with children heavy milk consumers
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- Figure 11: Household volume consumption of milk, by presence of children and Hispanic origin, July 2010-September 2011
- Organic option more popular in soy milk
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- Figure 12: Incidence of buying milk and milk alternatives, by type, December 2011
- 1-gallon packaging most popular; single-serve more popular in refrigerated format
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- Figure 13: Incidence of buying milk and milk alternatives, by packaging size and type, December 2011
- Taste and competition from other beverages the biggest roadblocks in increasing milk penetration
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- Figure 14: Reasons for not drinking milk, December 2011
- What we think
Issues in the market
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- What influence do price fluctuations have on the market?
- What segments/subsegments offer the biggest growth opportunities in the next five years?
- How can flavored milk broaden its appeal?
- To what extent will an aging population impact the growth in the milk market?
- What factors can the milk market leverage to avoid the “commodity” label?
Insights and Opportunities
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- Use of nontraditional flavors in milk can create interest
- Packaging innovation to protect milk nutrients and flavor
- Kleinpeter Farms Dairy touts the benefits of “golden” packaging
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- Figure 15: Kleinpeter Farms Dairy TV ad, “The Expert Approves,” 2011
Inspire Insights
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- Trend: Without a Care
- Trend: Nonstandard Society
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Price increases bring dollar sales gain; volume sales decline
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- Figure 16: FDMx trend in dollar/volume sales and price of milk*, 2006-16
- Organic milk expectations mixed due to supply shortages
- Growth from non-dairy milk
- Sales and forecast of dairy and non-dairy milk
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- Figure 17: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of dairy and non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2006-16
- Figure 18: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of dairy and non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 19: Fan chart forecast for dairy and non-dairy milk, at best-, worst-, and central-case scenarios, 2006-16
- Walmart sales
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Consumption of milk stable, but not increasing
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- Figure 20: Per capita consumption of milk and cream in the U.S., 2002-10
- Decline in households with children negatively influences the market
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- Figure 21: Households, by presence of children, 2001-11
- Household size matters
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- Figure 22: Households, by presence of children, 2001-11
- Kids and teens population is a key driver
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- Figure 23: Child population, by age, 2006-16
- Hispanics and blacks offer growth opportunities
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- Figure 24: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
- Figure 25: Average number of children in households, by race/Hispanic origin of householder, 2011
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- Figure 26: Household size, by race/Hispanic origin of householder, 2011
- Obesity trends among kids/teens threaten flavored and whole milk growth
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- Figure 27: Prevalence of obesity among children/teens aged 2-19, 1976-2008
- Organic milk supply shortages may negatively influence the market
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- Figure 28: Volume sales of milk, by segments and organic/non-organic, 2010 and 2011
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Growing popularity of vegan diet: pros and cons
- Private labels continue to offer value pricing to outsell branded milk
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Total sales of dairy and non-dairy milk, by segment
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- Figure 29: U.S. sales of dairy and non-dairy milk, by segment, 2006-16
- Figure 30: Total U.S. sales of dairy and non-dairy milk, by segment, 2009-11
Segment Performance—Refrigerated Skim/Low-Fat Milk
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- Key points
- Private labels continue to shape the segment sales
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- Figure 31: FDMx trend in volume sales of branded and private label refrigerated skim/low-fat milk, 2006-16
- Organic and rBST-free skim/low-fat milk offer small growth
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- Figure 32: FDMx trend in dollar and volume sales and prices of the top 3* refrigerated organic skim/low-fat milk brands, 2006-16
- Milk processors can bring growth through innovation
- Total sales of refrigerated skim/low-fat milk
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- Figure 33: U.S. sales of refrigerated skim/low-fat milk, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Refrigerated Whole Milk
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- Key points
- Private labels are the major player in the segment
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- Figure 34: FDMx trend in total dollar/volume sales and price of refrigerated whole milk, 2006-16
- Small growth from organic milk
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- Figure 35: FDMx trend in dollar and volume sales of the top 3* refrigerated whole organic milk brands, 2006-16
- Total sales of refrigerated whole milk
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- Figure 36: U.S. sales of refrigerated whole milk, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Refrigerated Flavored Milk
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- Key points
- Volume sales decline; high-calorie profile ticks off parents/schools
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- Figure 37: Trends in FDMx flavored milk annual percentage change in dollar/volume sales and prices, 2006-16
- Flavored milk gets functional boost
- Flavor innovation should offer growth opportunity
- Total sales of refrigerated flavored milk
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- Figure 38: U.S. sales of refrigerated flavored milk, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Powdered/Condensed/ Evaporated Milk
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- Key points
- Growth comes from price increases
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- Figure 39: FDMx trend in dollar and volume sales of powdered/condensed/evaporated milk, 2006-16
- Private labels and Nestlé performance decides the segment’s sales
- The segment needs an image makeover
- Total sales of powdered/condensed milk
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- Figure 40: U.S. sales of powdered/condensed milk, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Other
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- Key points
- Almond milk infuses growth; soy milk declines
- Milk in single-serve packaging with on-the-go convenience offers growth potential
- Total sales of other milk
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- Figure 41: U.S. sales of other* milk, 2006-16
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Supermarkets are the biggest purveyor of milk in the U.S.
- Other retailers exhibit strong growth
- Natural channels: dairy milk stable, soy milk down, almond rises
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- Figure 42: U.S. sales of dairy and non-dairy milk, by retail channel**, 2009 and 2011
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Dean Foods gains on the strength of TruMoo, non-dairy, and organic milk
- Private labels grow market share
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- Figure 43: Selected FDMx manufacturers sales of dairy and non-dairy milk, 2011 and 2012
Brand Share—Refrigerated Skim/Low-Fat Milk
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- Private labels command top share, branded milk loses market share
- Dean’s Horizon Organic brand shows impressive growth
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- Figure 44: Selected FDMx brand sales of refrigerated skim/low-fat milk, 2011 and 2012
Brand Share—Refrigerated Whole Milk
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- Private labels top segment sales; Dean Foods the second-biggest player
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- Figure 45: Selected FDMx brand sales of refrigerated whole milk, 2011 and 2012
Brand Share—Refrigerated Flavored Milk
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- Private labels command the biggest share due to price advantage
- Nestlé’s Nesquik disappoints
- Dean Foods introduces TruMoo, gives chocolate milk a makeover
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- Figure 46: Selected FDMx brand sales of refrigerated flavored milk, 2011 and 2012
Brand Share—Other (Non-Dairy Milk)
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- Silk Soymilk declines; Silk Pure Almond gains
- Blue Diamond exhibits higher sales in refrigerated section, compared to shelf-stable version
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- Figure 47: Selected FDMx brand sales of refrigerated non-dairy milk, 2011 and 2012
Brand Share—Powdered/Condensed/Evaporated Milk
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- Nestlé’s Nido powdered milk exhibits growth; private labels decline
- Private labels sales decline
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- Figure 48: Selected FDMx brand sales of refrigerated other milk, 2011 and 2012
Innovations and Innovators
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- Key points
- Pace of innovation healthy in 2011
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- Figure 49: New milk products count, 2006-11
- The top 10 claims are health-focused
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- Figure 50: Top 10 claims in new milk products, 2006-11
- New product count: private labels versus branded
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- Figure 51: New milk and milk alternative product counts, by branded and private label, 2006-11
- Functional milk can help compete better with other beverage categories
- Emphasis on the region
- Limited-edition packaging and flavors
- Non-dairy milk alternatives underscore the presence of calcium and more
- Hispanic-targeted products
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview
- MilkPEP continues to tailor messages to new needs
- The Breakfast Project
- Refuel with Chocolate Milk Program
- got milk? attacks the competition through humor
- Television ad campaigns
- Borden promises “no ordinary milk”
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- Figure 52: Borden TV ad, “Liquid Fuel,” 2011
- Dairy Farmers of Tennessee promote milk
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- Figure 53: Dairy Farmers of Tennessee TV ad, “Drink Milk,” 2011
- Nestlé promotes “100 calorie” Nesquik
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- Figure 54: Nestlé TV ad, “Just Be Happy,” 2011
- Silk engages in competitive advertising
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- Figure 55: WhiteWave Foods Company TV ad, “Taste for Yourself,” 2011
The Milk Consumer
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- Key points
- Milk is a mature category
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- Figure 56: Trends in the incidence of household consumption of milk, May 2004-September 2011
- Volume consumption of milk stable
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- Figure 57: Trends in the household volume consumption of milk, May 2004-September 2011
- Chocolate milk experiences growth in its consumer base during 2009-11
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- Figure 58: Trends in the household usage of milk, by type, May 2004-September 2011
- Low-income households key consumers for whole milk
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- Figure 59: Household usage of milk by type, by household income, July 2010-September 2011
- Household with children are key whole milk and chocolate milk consumers
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- Figure 60: Household usage of milk by type, by presence of children, July 2010-September 2011
- Three quarters of all adults drink cow’s milk
- Almond milk almost as popular as soy milk
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- Figure 61: Incidence of personally drinking or buying milk and milk alternatives, by age, December 2011
Milk and Milk Alternative Consumption—By Type and Flavored/Non-Flavored
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- Flavored option most popular in soy milk
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- Figure 62: Incidence of buying milk and milk alternatives, by flavored and non-flavored options, December 2011
- Adults aged 18-24 are the key flavored milk consumers
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- Figure 63: Incidence of buying milk and milk alternatives, by flavored options, by age, December 2011
- Lowest-income households exhibit the highest interest in flavored milk
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- Figure 64: Incidence of buying milk and milk alternatives, by flavored options, by household income, December 2011
- Households with children are the key flavored milk consumers
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- Figure 65: Incidence of buying milk and milk alternatives, by flavored options, by presence of children, December 2011
- Organic, non-organic, rBST-free milk
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- Figure 66: Incidence of buying milk and milk alternatives, by type, December 2011
- Organic milk more popular among adults aged 18-44
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- Figure 67: Incidence of buying cow’s milk, by type, by age, December 2011
- Households with children are the key organic milk consumers
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- Figure 68: Incidence of buying cow’s milk, by type, by presence of children, December 2011
Reasons for Drinking Milk and Soy Milk
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- Key points
- Milk most popular as a breakfast beverage and for its nutritional profile
- Milk as a thirst quencher and sports drinks
- Milk can be co-promoted with other foods
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- Figure 69: Reasons for drinking milk and soy milk, by age, December 2011
- Figure 70: Reasons for drinking milk and soy milk, by presence of children in household, December 2011
Milk and Milk Alternative Purchase by Packaging Size and Type
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- 1-gallon packaging most popular for cow’s milk
- Half-gallon format more popular in lactose-free, soy, and nut/seed milk
- Single-serve milk more popular in refrigerated format
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- Figure 71: Incidence of buying milk and milk alternatives, by packaging size and type, December 2011
- Households with children are more interested in single-serve packaging
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- Figure 72: Incidence of buying milk and milk alternatives by packaging size, by presence of children, December 2011
Attitudes Toward Milk Flavors
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- Chocolate is the most popular flavor in milk
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- Figure 73: Attitudes toward milk flavors, December 2011
- Figure 74: Attitudes toward milk flavors, by presence of children, December 2011
Attitudes Toward Milk
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- Milk packaging considered boring, inconvenient
- Aseptic packaging can bring incremental sales
- Trend toward local can benefit regional/local brands
- Flavored milk considered too sugary
- Functional milk and milk-based beverages can bring growth
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- Figure 75: Attitudes toward milk, December 2011
- Figure 76: Attitudes toward milk (any agree), by age, December 2011
Reasons for Not Drinking Milk
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- Taste and competition from other beverages are the biggest roadblocks
- More than one quarter of nonusers report lactose intolerance
- Milk beverage option not considered by one in seven nonusers
- Milk not considered a good-for-you beverage by some
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- Figure 77: Reasons for not drinking milk, December 2011
Impact of Race/Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Black households are the key flavored milk consumers
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- Figure 78: Household usage of milk by type, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010-September 2011
- Hispanic households are the most prolific milk consumer
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- Figure 79: Household volume consumption of milk, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010-September 2011
- Almond milk usage high among Asians and blacks
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- Figure 80: Incidence of personally drinking or buying milk and milk alternatives, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2011
- Blacks and Hispanics favor flavored milk
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- Figure 81: Incidence of buying milk and milk alternatives, by flavored options, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2011
- Asians and Hispanics are the key organic milk consumers
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- Figure 82: Incidence of buying cow’s milk, by type, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2011
- Hispanics are more likely than non-Hispanics to drink milk as a breakfast beverage
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- Figure 83: Reasons for drinking milk and soy milk, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2011
- Hispanics show lower-than-average interest in chocolate flavor
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- Figure 84: Attitudes toward milk flavors, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2011
- Asians, Hispanics, and other race show interest in functional milk
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- Figure 85: Attitudes toward milk (any agree), by race/Hispanic origin, December 2011
Custom Consumer Groups
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- Health and Wellbeing segmentation
- Healthy Holistics show higher-than-average interest in soy and organic milk
- Fat-free milk can be positioned as a weight loss tool
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- Figure 86: Household milk consumption by type, by health and wellbeing segment, July 2010-September 2011
- Food Lifestyle segmentation
- True Foodies are the key milk consumer
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- Figure 87: Household milk consumption by type, by food lifestyle segment, July 2010-September 2011
- Generation-based differences exist in milk usage
- Swing Generation shows lower-than-average interest in milk
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- Figure 88: Incidence of personally drinking or buying milk and milk alternatives, by generation, December 2011
- Millennials more likely to drink milk as breakfast beverage, thirst quencher, and sports drinks
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- Figure 89: Reasons for drinking milk and soy milk, by generation, December 2011
- Flavor choice differs by generations
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- Figure 90: Attitudes toward milk flavors, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2011
- Milk packaging—boring for Millennials, inconvenient for the Swing Generation
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- Figure 91: Attitudes toward milk (any agree), by generation, origin, December 2011
IRI/Builders Panel Data—Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Overview of milk
- Refrigerated skim/low-fat milk—consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 92: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated skim/low-fat milk buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 93: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated skim/low-fat milk, by household penetration, 2011*
- Refrigerated flavored milk—consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 94: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated flavored milk/eggnog/buttermilk buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 95: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated flavored milk/eggnog/buttermilk, by household penetration, 2011*
- Refrigerated whole milk—consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 96: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated whole milk buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 97: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated whole milk, by household penetration, 2011*
- Evaporated/condensed milk—consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 98: Brand map, selected brands of evaporated/condensed milk buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 99: Key purchase measures for the top brands of evaporated/condensed milk, by household penetration, 2011*
Appendix—SymphonyIRI/Builders Panel Data Definitions
Appendix—Retail Channels
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- Retail channels—supermarkets
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- Figure 100: U.S. sales of dairy and non-dairy milk at supermarkets, 2006-11
- Retail channels—supercenters and warehouse clubs
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- Figure 101: U.S. sales of dairy and non-dairy milk at supercenters and warehouse clubs, 2006-11
- Retail channels—drug stores
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- Figure 102: U.S. sales of dairy and non-dairy milk at drug stores, 2006-11
- Retail channels—other
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- Figure 103: U.S. sales of dairy and non-dairy milk at other* channels, 2006-11
- Sales of dairy and non-dairy milk in the natural channel
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- Figure 104: Natural supermarket sales of milk and non-dairy milk at current prices, 2009-11*
- Figure 105: Natural supermarket sales of milk and non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-11*
- Natural channel sales by segment
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- Figure 106: Natural supermarket sales of milk and non-dairy milk, by segment, 2009 and 2011*
- Brands of significance
- Natural channel sales of milk and non-dairy milk by organic
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- Figure 107: Natural supermarket sales of milk and non-dairy milk, by organic, 2009 and 2011*
- Natural channel sales of non-dairy milk by shelf placement
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- Figure 108: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, by shelf placement, 2009 and 2011*
Appendix—Other Useful Tables
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- Milk consumption by type
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- Figure 109: Household usage of milk by type, by number of people in household, July 2010-September 2011
- Volume consumption of milk high in households with more people and children
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- Figure 110: Household volume consumption of milk, by number of people in household, July 2010-September 2011
- Figure 111: Household volume consumption of milk, by presence of children, July 2010-September 2011
- Figure 112: Incidence of personally drinking or buying milk and milk alternatives, by presence of children in household, December 2011
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- Figure 113: Incidence of buying cow’s milk, by type, by household income, December 2011
- Figure 114: Reasons for drinking milk and soy milk, by gender, December 2011
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- Figure 115: Incidence of buying milk and milk alternatives, by packaging size, by age, December 2011
- Figure 116: Incidence of buying milk and milk alternatives, by packaging size, by household income, December 2011
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- Figure 117: Attitudes toward milk flavors, December 2011
- Figure 118: Attitudes toward milk flavors, by age, December 2011
Impact of Race/Hispanic Origin—Other Useful Tables
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- Figure 119: Incidence of buying milk and milk alternatives, by packaging size, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2011
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Appendix—Trade Associations
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