Table of Contents
Issues in the Market
-
- Key themes
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Future Opportunities
-
- The heart of the matter
- Think outside of the chocolate box
- Sensory experience in the shopping aisle
- Gifting opportunities
-
- Figure 1: Pie carrier, September 2011
- Playing with food
- Baking-centric stores
Market in Brief
-
- Regular home bakers are golden
- Instance of home baking
- Home baking industry strong in 2008-09; not so strong in 2010-11
- Rising costs and competition always challenging
- It’s the economy
- Demographics portend substantial changes in the market
- How can the industry drive both indulgent and BFY simultaneously?
- Ingredient choices
- Leading companies lose ground to private label
- Social media is the place to be
Internal Market Environment
-
- Key points
- Food costs on the rise…
- …but consumers are spending less on groceries
- Changing flavor preferences
-
- Figure 2: Top 10 flavors, baking ingredients and mixes, 2006 and 2011*
-
- Figure 3: Duncan Hines strawberry cupcakes, 2011
Broader Market Environment
-
- Key points
- Economic uncertainty keeps consumers cost-conscious
-
- Figure 4: University of Michigan’s index for consumer sentiment, January 2007-August 2011
- Aging population presents a challenge to the industry
-
- Figure 5: Frequency of baking at home, by age, August 2011
- Figure 6: Population, by age, 2006-16
- Decline in households with children further reduces target audiences
-
- Figure 7: Frequency of baking at home, by household size and number of children, August 2011
-
- Figure 8: Households, by presence of children, 2000-10
- Race/ethnic population trends could be beneficial to the industry
-
- Figure 9: Frequency of baking at home, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2011
-
- Figure 10: Population, by race/Hispanic origin, 2006-16
Competitive Context
-
- Key points
- Competing baked goods
- Packaged goods
-
- Figure 11: New bakery product releases, 2005-10
- Smaller servings
- Healthy
- Alternatives to chocolate
- In-store bakeries
- Foodservice
Strengths and Weaknesses
-
- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
-
- Key points
- Significant increase in product releases
-
- Figure 12: New U.S. baking mixes and ingredients, 2005-10
- Leading companies with new product activity
-
- Figure 13: New U.S. baking mixes and ingredients, by company, 2010
- Health claims reign in home baking product releases
-
- Figure 14: Top 10 U.S. food claims, baking ingredients and mixes, 2006 and 2011*
- Companies gaining confidence in new product introduction
-
- Figure 15: New baking mixes and ingredients, by launch type, 2009-11*
- Health-conscious
-
- Figure 16: Dietary habits, by gender and age, April 2011
- Smaller portions
- Organic
- Gluten-free
- Convenience
- Growth of private label
- New formats
- New packaging
- Throwback
- A muffin by any other name
- Specialty getting in on the act
- Going the extra mile
- Local specialty
Market Size and Forecast
-
- Key points
- Home baking market slows
-
- Figure 17: Total U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of home baking products, at current and constant prices, 2006-16
- Figure 18: Total U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of home baking products, at current prices, fan chart, 2006-16
- Segment activity is evidence of decrease in home baking
-
- Figure 19: Total U.S. FDMx sales of home baking products, by segment, 2006-16
- Walmart sales
Segment Performance
-
- Key points
- Segment growth/decline patterns indicate slowing market
-
- Figure 20: FDMx sales of home baking products, by segment, 2007-10
- Shortening and oil
- Sugar
- Baking mixes
- Syrups/molasses
- Dried/glazed fruit and baking nuts
- Flour
- Baking chocolate/cocoa
- Sugar substitutes
Market Share
-
- Key points
- Market leaders see significant shifts, but little share change
- Private label grows by nearly a third
-
- Figure 21: FDMx sales of home baking products, by company, 2006-10
- Private label likely to continue to grow
Companies and Products
-
- Manufacturers and brands
-
- Figure 22: Leading companies in the U.S. home baking market and their brands, 2011
- Major players
- McCormick and Company
- Recent activity
- Product range and innovation
-
- Figure 23: Products launched by McCormick in the U.S. home baking market, 2009-11*
- J.M. Smucker Co.
- Recent activity
- Product range and innovation
-
- Figure 24: Products launched by Smucker’s in the U.S. home baking market, 2009-11*
- General Mills, Inc.
- Recent activity
- Product range and innovation
-
- Figure 25: Products launched by General Mills in the U.S. home baking market, 2009-11*
- Kraft Foods, Inc.
- Recent activity
- Product range and innovation
-
- Figure 26: Products launched by Kraft in the U.S. home baking market, 2009-11*
- Nestlé S.A. (Switzerland)
- Product range and innovation
-
- Figure 27: Products launched by Nestlé in the U.S. home baking market, 2009-11*
- Pinnacle Foods Corp.
- Recent activity
- Product range and innovation
-
- Figure 28: Products launched by Pinnacle Foods in the U.S. home baking market, 2009-11*
- ConAgra Foods Inc.
- Recent activity
- Product range and innovation
-
- Figure 29: Products launched by ConAgra Foods in the U.S. home baking market, 2009-11*
- Associated British Foods (ABF)
- Recent activity
- Product range and innovation
-
- Figure 30: Products launched by ABF in the U.S. home baking market, 2009-11*
Brand Communication and Promotion
-
- Key points
- A look at adspend
- Traditional media adspend is unstable
-
- Figure 31: Superbrands, 2008 and 2009
- Increases forecast for online and mobile ad spending
-
- Figure 32: Projected U.S. online ad spending, by format, 2010-15
- Figure 33: Projected change in U.S. ad spending rate from previous year, by format, 2010-15
-
- Figure 34: Google recipe view, September 2011
- Figure 35: Top 10 U.S. online display ad* publishers, Q1 2011
- Messaging: Focus on adults
- Tactics: Building a connection with the consumer
-
- Figure 36: King Arthur Flour wheat farmer videos, September 2011
- Figure 37: King Arthur Flour ad, Real Simple magazine, October 2011
- Brand advocates
- Tactics: Promoting cost savings
- Daily deals
- Magazine coupons
-
- Figure 38: Domino agave nectar ad, Eating Well, September/October 2011
- Tactic: Dynamic engagement
-
- Figure 39: Cooking Light ad, Cooking Light, October 2011
-
- Figure 40: Simply Organic ad, Eating Well, September/October 2011
Channels to Market
-
- Key points
- Food stores dominate home baking sales
-
- Figure 41: FDMx sales of home baking products, by segment, 2006-10
- Challenges within retail channels and opportunities to grow business
- Baking Aisle Audit
- Supermarket: Jewel
- Supermarket: Safeway
- Natural Foods: Whole Foods
- Mass merchandise: Target
- Mass merchandise: Walmart
- Drug store: Walgreens
- Drug Store: Rite Aid
- Convenience store: 7-11
The Consumer—Home Baking Frequency
-
- Key points
- Getting bakers to bake more is key to growing business
- Home is for both male and female bakers
- Consumers aged 25-44 comprise target audience
-
- Figure 42: Frequency of baking at home, by gender and age, August 2011
- Higher income earners bake with greater frequency than the rest
-
- Figure 43: Frequency of baking at home, by income, August 2011
- Bigger households bake more
-
- Figure 44: Frequency of baking at home, by household size and number of children, August 2011
- Age of children impacts frequency of home baking
-
- Figure 45: Frequency of baking at home, by age of children, August 2011
- Those who work more, bake more
-
- Figure 46: Frequency of baking at home, by employment, August 2011
The Consumer—Baking Ingredients Purchased
-
- Key points
- Sugar, butter and flour top the list of baking ingredients purchased
-
- Figure 47: Ingredients bought in the last six months for baking at home, by baking frequency, August 2011
- Bakers aged 25-44 are most likely target shoppers
-
- Figure 48: Ingredients bought in the last six months for baking at home, by gender and age, August 2011
- Higher income earners buy more
-
- Figure 49: Ingredients bought in the last six months for baking at home, by income, August 2011
The Consumer—What’s in the Oven?
-
- Key points
- Mix baking more common than scratch baking among home bakers
- Mix brownies take the cake
- Using knowledge of baking preferences to boost sales
- Mixing up the mix/scratch mix
-
- Figure 50: Items baked at home in the last six months, mix versus scratch, August 2011
- Baking frequency an indication of baking skill
-
- Figure 51: Items baked at home from a mix in the last six months, by baking frequency, August 2011
-
- Figure 52: Items baked at home from scratch in the last six months, by baking frequency, August 2011
- The South is into mix, while the Northeast does it from scratch
-
- Figure 53: Items baked at home from a mix in the last six months, by region, August 2011
-
- Figure 54: Items baked at home from scratch in the last six months, by region, August 2011
The Consumer—Reasons for Home Baking
-
- Key points
- Care and control represent important reasons for home baking
- Learning to bake, or not
-
- Figure 55: Reasons for home baking, by gender and age, August 2011
- High income earners looking to do more
-
- Figure 56: Reasons for home baking, by income, August 2011
- Large households find greater freedom in baking than smaller ones
- Children as backseat drivers to home baking
-
- Figure 57: Reasons for home baking, by household size and number of children, August 2011
- Age of children plays a role in engagement
-
- Figure 58: Reasons for home baking, by age of children, August 2011
The Consumer—Home Baking Habits
-
- Key points
- Home bakers like to be in the know
- The importance of branded recipes
- Finding recipes online
- Positioning scratch as easy
- Thinking about ingredients
-
- Figure 59: Home baking habits, by baking frequency, August 2011
- Men drawn to freedom and flexibility in the kitchen
-
- Figure 60: Home baking habits, by gender and age, August 2011
- Highest income earners most selective about ingredients
-
- Figure 61: Home baking habits, by income, August 2011
- Largest households look for ways to stretch the food dollar
-
- Figure 62: Home baking habits, by household size and presence of children, August 2011
The Consumer—Home Baking Motivations
-
- Key points
- Home baking as a way of life
- Shifts toward and away from home baking
-
- Figure 63: Home baking motivations, by gender and age, August 2011
- Lower income earners look to home baking to save money
-
- Figure 64: Home baking motivations, by income, August 2011
- Keeping up with family tradition strongest among families
- Larger households turn to home baking for cost savings
-
- Figure 65: Home baking motivations, by household size and presence of children, August 2011
The Consumer—Importance of Health Claims
-
- Key points
- “All natural” tops the list of important ingredient attributes
- Some demographics may be stronger preference drivers than others
-
- Figure 66: Importance of health claims, by gender and age, August 2011
- The impact of income
-
- Figure 67: Importance of health claims, by income, August 2011
- Age of children might not drive preferences of parents
-
- Figure 68: Importance of health claims, by age of children, August 2011
- Midwesterners go with the flow
-
- Figure 69: Importance of health claims, by region, August 2011
- Daily bakers are demanding shoppers
-
- Figure 70: Importance of health claims, by baking frequency, August 2011
The Consumer—Where Ingredients Are Purchased
-
- Key points
- Supermarkets are leading shopping preference of home bakers
- Growth of other retail channels
-
- Figure 71: Where ingredients are purchased, by gender and age, August 2011
- Low income earners seek cost savings, high earners seek specialty
-
- Figure 72: Where ingredients are purchased, by income, August 2011
- Larger households take advantage of any opportunity to stock up
-
- Figure 73: Where ingredients are purchased, by household size and presence of children, August 2011
- Geographic landscape defines shopping patterns
-
- Figure 74: Where ingredients are purchased, by region, August 2011
- Daily bakers shop everywhere to get what they want
- Growing online sales
-
- Figure 75: Where ingredients are purchased, by baking frequency, August 2011
The Consumer—Reasons for Not Baking
-
- Key points
- Baking seen as taking too much time
- Combating a limited view of baked goods
- Instilling the consumer with the confidence that they can do it
- Competition from RTE
-
- Figure 76: Reasons for not baking, by gender and age, August 2011
- Baking time could be family time well spent
- Catering products to single households
-
- Figure 77: Reasons for not baking, by household size and presence of children, August 2011
-
- Figure 78: Reasons for not baking, by age of children, August 2011
Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin
-
- Key points
- Hispanic and Asian home bakers key to future growth
-
- Figure 79: FREQUENCY OF BAKING AT HOME, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2011
- Asian bakers are prolific shoppers
-
- Figure 80: INGREDIENTS BOUGHT IN THE LAST six MONTHS FOR BAKING AT HOME, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2011
- Giving the people what they want
-
- Figure 81: ITEMS BAKED AT HOME from a mix IN THE LAST six MONTHS, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2011
- A point of entry for the black home baker
-
- Figure 82: ITEMS BAKED AT HOME from scratch IN THE LAST six MONTHS, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2011
- Asians take control
-
- Figure 83: Attitudes towards baking, by baking frequency, August 2011
- Asian bakers do what they want, Hispanic bakers seek advice
-
- Figure 84: Home baking habits, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2011
- Baking as a part of life for Asians
-
- Figure 85: Home baking motivations, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2011
- Asian and Hispanic home bakers exhibit a strong interest in health
-
- Figure 86: Importance of health claims, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2011
- Asians willing to shop at a variety of venues
-
- Figure 87: Where ingredients are purchased, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2011
- Time is of the utmost importance to Asian home bakers
-
- Figure 88: Reasons for not baking, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2011
Back to top