Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Market poised for significant gains in 2011
- Rate of new products introduction accelerated in Q2
- Starbucks and McCafé lead in both food and drink
- Most visit before noon
- Two in five report spending less in the channel this year
- High-quality coffee remains most popular beverage
- Three in five often order to-go, but many young adults like to hang out
- Many would like to see more breakfast sandwiches and BFY options
Insights and Opportunities
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- Quality, convenience, and service more likely to be rated as important than price
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- Figure 1: Key attributes of favorite coffeehouse, by age, June 2011
- BFY donuts and baked goods could drive growth
- Create brand community to drive loyalty and mitigate weak economy
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- Figure 2: First Starbucks store in Seattle
Inspire Insights
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- Trend: Premiumization and Indulgence
- Trend: Moral Brands
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Brewing up strong sales
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- Figure 3: U.S. sales at coffeehouses and donut shops, at current prices, 2006-16
- Figure 4: U.S. sales at coffeehouses and donut shops, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-2016
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 5: Fan chart of market U.S. sales at coffeehouses and donut shops, at current prices, 2006-16
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Population growth will drive long-term demand
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- Figure 6: Population, by age, 2006-16
- Declining fertility rate could slow impact of overall population growth
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- Figure 7: Households, by presence of children, 2000-10
- Growth and age distribution of Hispanic segment make potentially high value
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- Figure 8: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
- Hispanic segment young, with high proportion of kids
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- Figure 9: Households, by Hispanic origin of householder and presence and ages of children, 2010
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- Figure 10: Households, by race of householder and presence and ages of children, 2010
- Weak economy continues to stymie growth
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- Figure 11: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007- September 2011
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- Figure 12: Consumer sentiment index, by quarter, March 2007-September 2011
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- Figure 13: Adjusted foodservice and drinking place sales, January 2008-August 2011
- Figure 14: NRA Performance Indices, January 2009-August 2011
- Many continue to report drinking more at home
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- Figure 15: Attitudes and behavior toward coffee, by age, June 2011
- Some report drinking less coffee as a result of price increases
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- Figure 16: Change in purchasing behavior in buying favorite brand due to rising prices, by age, June 2011
- Obesity and nutritional concerns also likely to impact sales
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- Figure 17: Percentage of population aged 20+ who are overweight, obese, or extremely obese, 1988-2008
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- Figure 18: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1976-2008
- Most adults watching diet
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- Figure 19: Trends in watching diet among adults aged 18+, 2005-10
- Figure 20: Trends in watching diet among adults aged 18+, 2005-10
Brand Analysis
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- Overview
- Starbucks
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- Figure 21: Evolution of Starbucks Logo
- Dunkin’ Donuts
- Caribou Coffee
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- Figure 22: Evolution of Caribou Coffee Logo
- Krispy Kreme
- Tim Hortons
Menu Insights Analysis—Indulgence and Health Both Important
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- Key points
- The Competitive Context
- Sharp rise in number of turkey sandwiches, donuts and pastries
- Breakfast sandwiches become more common and differentiated
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- Figure 23: Top 10 food items at coffeehouses and donut shops, by incidence, Q2 2008-Q2 2011
- Average price up nearly 20% from 2008
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- Figure 24: Top 10 food items at coffeehouses and donut shops, by incidence and price, Q2 2008-Q2 2011
- Leading companies continue to add new products
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- Figure 25: Coffeehouse and donut shops food menus, by incidence, Q2 2008-Q2 2011
- Tea latte and coffee frappe drinks becoming more common
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- Figure 26: Top 10 beverages at coffeehouses and donut shops, by incidence, Q2 2008-Q2 2011
- Shake innovations could help drive sales
- Smoothies another category where innovation could drive growth
- Skinny drinks could drive growth at some concepts
- Average price of drinks up 12%, on rising commodity prices
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- Figure 27: Top 10 beverages at coffeehouses and donut shops, by incidence and price, Q2 2008-Q2 2011
- BFY options a major push
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- Figure 28: Coffeehouse and donut shops beverages, by incidence, Q2 2008-Q2 2011
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview
- Dunkin’ Donuts
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- Figure 29: Brand analysis of Dunkin’ Donuts
- Television advertising
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- Figure 30: Dunkin’ Donuts coffee, 2011
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- Figure 31: Dunkin’ Donuts coffee, 2011
- Website
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- Figure 32: Quantcast estimates for Dunkin’Donuts.com, September 2011
- YouTube
- Other promotions
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- Figure 33: Dunkin’ Donuts perks rewards card, September 2011
- Starbucks
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- Figure 34: Brand analysis of Starbucks
- Television advertising
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- Figure 35: Starbucks ad, 2011
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- Figure 36: Starbucks ad, 2011
- Website
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- Figure 37: Quantcast estimates for Starbucks.com, September 2011
- YouTube
- Other promotions
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- Figure 38: Starbucks treat receipt, September 2011
- Figure 39: Starbucks store Facebook announcement, September 2011
Coffeehouse and Donut Shop Usage
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- Key points
- Starbucks remains most popular coffeehouse for drinks purchases
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- Figure 40: Purchased food and/or drinks at coffeehouses and donut shops in past month, by store and gender, June 2011
- Starbucks popular with 18-24s, even for food purchases
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- Figure 41: Purchased food and/or drinks at coffeehouses and donut shops in past month, by store and age, June 2011
- Starbucks most popular for food and drink among $150K+ segment
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- Figure 42: Purchased food and/or drinks at coffeehouses and donut shops in past month, by store and household income, June 2011
- Men tend to order somewhat more
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- Figure 43: Food and drink purchase means at coffeehouses and donut shops in past month, by store and gender, June 2011
- Young adults most frequent drink purchasers at Starbucks
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- Figure 44: Food and drink purchase means at coffeehouses and donut shops in past month, by store and age, June 2011
- Higher-income segments most frequent food/drink purchasers
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- Figure 45: Food and drink purchase means at coffeehouses and donut shops in past month, by store and household income, June 2011
Daypart Usage
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- Key points
- Morning dayparts most important for coffeehouses
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- Figure 46: Coffeehouse daypart usage, by gender, June 2011
- Young adults more likely to visit coffeehouses in middle of day
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- Figure 47: Coffeehouse daypart usage, by age, June 2011
- $75K+ segment more likely to visit coffeehouses in early morning
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- Figure 48: Coffeehouse daypart usage, by household income, June 2011
- Donut shop usage heavily concentrated in the morning dayparts
- Young adults are the group most likely to visit later in the day
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- Figure 49: Donut shop daypart usage, by age, June 2011
- Those from lower-income segments more likely than others to visit later
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- Figure 50: Donut shop daypart usage, by household income, June 2011
Coffee and Coffee Drink Spending Trends and Rationales
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- Key points
- More patrons spending more at coffeehouses than last year
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- Figure 51: Coffeehouse and donut shop coffee-spending trends, February 2009, March 2010 and June 2011
- Women somewhat more likely to continue to cut back on spending
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- Figure 52: Coffeehouse and donut shop coffee-spending trends, by gender, June 2011
- Young adults most likely to be spending more at coffeehouses
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- Figure 53: Coffeehouse and donut shop coffee-spending trends, by age, June 2011
- Those from $100K+ households maintaining coffeehouse spend
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- Figure 54: Coffeehouse and donut shop coffee-spending trends, by household income, June 2011
Coffeehouse and Donut Shop Drinks Most Often Consumed
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- Key points
- Lattes and blended iced coffee more popular with women
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- Figure 55: Coffeehouse and donut shops drinks drunk most often, by gender, June 2011
- Blended coffee drinks most popular with 18- to 24-year-olds
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- Figure 56: Coffeehouse and donut shops drinks drunk most often, by age, June 2011
- $150K+ consumers prefer black coffee, avoid blended iced coffee drinks
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- Figure 57: Coffeehouse and donut shops drinks drunk most often, by household income, June 2011
Coffeehouse Usage Patterns
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- Key points
- Most use coffeehouses to get coffee or a snack to go
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- Figure 58: How coffeehouses are used, by gender, June 2011
- Young more likely to use coffeehouses as a “third place”
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- Figure 59: How coffeehouses are used, by age, June 2011
- $150K+ segment more likely to use internet or do work at coffeehouses
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- Figure 60: How coffeehouses are used, by household income, June 2011
What Coffeehouse Patrons Would Like to See More Of
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- Key points
- Women more interested in BFY options
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- Figure 61: What coffeehouse patrons would like to see more of, by gender, June 2011
- Young adults interested in more coffee variety
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- Figure 62: What coffeehouse patrons would like to see more of, by age, June 2011
- Those from higher-income segments more interested in BFY
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- Figure 63: What coffeehouse patrons would like to see more of, by household income, June 2011
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Hispanics and Asians heavily over index on usage
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- Figure 64: Purchased food and/or drinks at coffeehouses and donut shops in past month, by store and race/Hispanic origin, June 2011
- Asians and Hispanics more likely to want healthy items and broader coffee options
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- Figure 65: What coffeehouse patrons would like to see more of, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2011
Custom Consumer Groups—Households with Children
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- Parents over index on usage across chains
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- Figure 66: Food and drink purchase means at coffeehouses and donut shops in past month, by store and race/Hispanic origin, June 2011
- Parents more likely to make purchases across chains and categories
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- Figure 67: Purchased food and/or drinks at coffeehouses and donut shops in past month, by store and race/Hispanic origin, June 2011
- Drink variety and quality of baked goods key at coffeehouses
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- Figure 68: Attributes of favorite coffeehouse, by custom consumer group
- Drink selection, quality of coffee and atmosphere key attributes in donut shops
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- Figure 69: Attributes of favorite donut shop, by custom consumer group, June 2011
Appendix—Trade Associations
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