Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Mintel Menu Insights
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Casual dining market overview
- Market attracts high-income households, but recession stifles growth
- Age and presence of kids are influential demographics
- Competition for consumers’ dining-out dollar remains intense
- Segment performance
- Breaking down the casual dining menu
- Utilizing an integrated marketing approach
- Casual dining restaurants have strong reach
- Olive Garden is the most widely used casual dining chain
- Consumers spend significantly more during dinner
- Value is a topmost factor in selecting a casual restaurant
- Healthy food ranks top improvement for casual restaurants
Insights and Opportunities
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- Key points
- The healthy food “opportunity”
- Casual dining players jumping on the small plate bandwagon
- Applebee’s—Casual dining “health” success story
- Underutilized dayparts
- Breakfast
- Snack time
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- Figure 1: Time periods for snacking at restaurants, February 2011
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- Figure 2: Incidence of snack items,* by restaurant segment, Q1 2011
Inspire Insights
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- Trend: “Experience Is All”
Market Size
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- Challenging economic conditions continue to plague market
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- Figure 3: Total U.S. sales at casual dining restaurants, at current prices, 2006-16
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- Figure 4: Total U.S. sales of casual dining restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 5: Fan chart of market value for casual dining restaurants, at current prices, 2006-16
- Figure 6: Best and worst case forecast for casual dining restaurants, at current prices, 2011-2016
Market Drivers
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- Restaurant industry trying to forge ahead, but challenges remain
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- Figure 7: NRA performance indices, January 2009-May 2011
- Restaurant sales trending upward
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- Figure 8: Adjusted foodservice and drinking places sales, January 2008–May 2011
- Challenges exist as unemployment and underemployment remain high
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- Figure 9: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007–June 2011
- Little change in personal income reason for weak consumer confidence
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- Figure 10: Real personal disposable income, January 2007–May 2011
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- Figure 11: Consumer Sentiment Index, March 2007–June 2011
- Catering to both old and young restaurant-goers
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- Figure 12: Population, by age, 2006-16
- The importance of families
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- Figure 13: Households by presence of children, 2000-10
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- Figure 14: Average annual expenditures for food away from home, all consumer units vs. parents, 2005-09
Competitive Context
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- Key point
- Casual dining players are just one option in a highly competitive market
- Family midscale—Advantage breakfast
- QSRs—Advantage convenience/value nexus
- Fast casual—Advantage quality
- Pizza—Advantage takeout
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Contemporary American and Seafood
- The Cheesecake Factory and Chili’s produce steady growth
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- Figure 15: System-wide U.S. restaurant sales of leading contemporary American and seafood casual dining chains, 2008 and 2010
- Italian and Ethnic
- Olive Garden remains untouchable
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- Figure 16: System-wide U.S. restaurant sales of leading Italian and ethnic casual dining chains, 2008 and 2010
- Steakhouse
- Outback suffering from steep sales loss and unit decline
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- Figure 17: System-wide U.S. restaurant sales of leading steakhouse casual dining chains, 2008 and 2010
Restaurant Analysis—Applebee’s
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- Overview
- Rebound in recent sales
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- Figure 18: Applebee’s system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth, percentage increase, 2006-Q1 2011*
- Brand revitalization in progress
- Menu development
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- Figure 19: Applebee’s menu, Q1 2011
- Applebee’s has universal appeal
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- Figure 20: Applebee’s usage, October 2009-December 2010
Restaurant Analysis—Chili’s
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- Overview
- Chili’s seeking brand transformation to fuel growth
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- Figure 21: Chili’s system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth, percentage increase, 2006-Q3 11*
- Menu transformation
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- Figure 22: Chili’s menu, Q1 2011
- Balancing value and innovation
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- Figure 23: Chili’s E-mail club coupon, June 2011
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- Figure 24: Incidence of online activity, by Chili’s users, October 2009-December 2010
Restaurant Analysis—Olive Garden
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- Overview
- Flat performance
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- Figure 25: Olive Garden’s system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth, percentage increase, 2006-Q3 2011*
- Distinct lunch and dinner menus
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- Figure 26: Olive Garden menu, Q1 2011
- Sustainable approach to value pricing
- Under-35s and affluent are core demographics for Olive Garden
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- Figure 27: Olive Garden usage, October 2009-December 2010
Restaurant Analysis—Outback Steakhouse
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- Overview
- Solid start in sales growth for 2011
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- Figure 28: Outback Steakhouse system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth, percentage increase, 2006-Q1 2011*
- Limited, high-quality menu
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- Figure 29: Outback Steakhouse menu, Q1 2011
- Affluent restaurant-goers are Outback’s core user
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- Figure 30: Outback Steakhouse usage, October 2009-December 2010
Menu Analysis—The Casual Dining Menu
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- Key points
- Most casual dining chains serve Traditional American menu items
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- Figure 31: Top 10 casual dining menu item cuisine, by incidence, Q1 2009-Q1 2011
- Italian dishes are the most expensive menu items
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- Figure 32: Top 10 casual dining menu items, by incidence and average price, Q1 2009-Q1 2011
- Steak is a differentiating menu item for casual operators
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- Figure 33: Top 10 casual dining menu items, by incidence, Q1 2009-Q1 2011
- The premium price point of steaks helps to drive ticket sales
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- Figure 34: Top 10 casual dining menu items, by incidence and average price, Q1 2009- Q1 2011
Menu Analysis—Marketing the Casual Dining Menu
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- Key points
- Freshness is topmost marketing claim used on the menu
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- Figure 35: Top 10 ingredient marketing claims on casual dining menus, by incidence, Q1 2009-Q1 2011
- Marketing claims that speak to the senses command highest prices
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- Figure 36: Top 10 ingredient marketing claims on casual dining menus, by incidence and average price, Q1 2009-Q1 2011
- Wellness nutritional claims appeal to larger audience
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- Figure 37: Top 10 ingredient nutritional claims on casual dining menus, by incidence, Q1 2009- Q1 2011
- Higher prices are associated with menu items featuring wellness nutritional claims
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- Figure 38: Top 10 ingredient nutritional claims on casual dining menus, by incidence and average price, Q1 2009- Q1 2011
Menu Analysis—The Casual Dining Beverage Menu
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- Key points
- Alcoholic beverages: cocktails are a hot trend at casual dining
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- Figure 39: Top 10 alcoholic beverages on casual dining menus, by incidence, Q1 2009-Q1 2011
- Nonalcoholic beverages: milk is becoming more common on menus
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- Figure 40: Top 10 nonalcoholic beverages on casual dining menus, by incidence, Q1 2009-Q1 2011
Menu Analysis—The Casual Dining Kids’ Menu
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- Key points
- Chicken fingers lead kids’ menu offerings
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- Figure 41: Top 10 kids’ menu items on casual dining menus, by incidence, Q1 2009-Q1 2011
- High cost of beef makes kids’ steaks an expensive item
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- Figure 42: Top 10 kids’ menu items on casual dining menus, by incidence and average price, Q1 2009-Q1 2011
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview
- TV ads
- Promoting value and discount prices
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- Figure 43: Carrabba’s Italian Grill TV ad, April 2011
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- Figure 44: Red Lobster TV ad, November 2010
- Figure 45: O’Charley’s Restaurant TV ad, March 2011
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- Figure 46: Red Robin TV ad, February 2011
- Food quality and unique flavors
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- Figure 47: Olive Garden TV ad, March 2011
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- Figure 48: Chili’s TV ad, January 2011
- The social experience
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- Figure 49: Hooters TV ad, September 2010
- California Pizza Kitchen—Integrated marketing strategy
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- Figure 50: CPK email adventure club coupon, 2011
- Figure 51: CPK.com monthly people, December 2010-May 2011
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- Figure 52: Ziosk tabletop technology, 2011
- Ad spend
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- Figure 53: Select casual dining restaurant advertisers, 2008 and 2009
Casual Dining Restaurant Usage and Usage Frequency
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- Key points
- Casual dining restaurants more likely to be used for dinner
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- Figure 54: Casual dining restaurant usage, by age, April 2011
- Affluent households more likely to use casual restaurants for lunch and dinner
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- Figure 55: Casual dining restaurant usage, by household income, April 2011
- Families more likely to dine at casual restaurants
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- Figure 56: Casual dining restaurant usage, by presence of children in household, April 2011
- Casual restaurants are perceived as too expensive for lunch
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- Figure 57: Reasons for not dining at casual restuarants for lunch, by age, April 2011
- Wealthier households can afford casual dining at lunch, but they say it takes too long
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- Figure 58: Reasons for not dining at casual restaurants for lunch, by household income, April 2011
- Frequency of use
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- Figure 59: Frequency of casual dining restaurant use, by age, April 2011
- High-income earners dine at casual restaurants most frequently
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- Figure 60: Frequency of casual dining restaurant use, by household income, April 2011
- Households with children dine at casual restaurants more often
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- Figure 61: Frequency of casual dining restaurant use, by presence of children in household, April 2011
Casual Dining Restaurant Chain Usage
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- Key points
- Olive Garden is the leading casual dining chain used
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- Figure 62: Casual dining restaurants used for lunch and dinner, April 2011
- Dinner
- Chili’s attracts under-35s for dinner
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- Figure 63: Casual dining restaurants used for dinner, by age, April 2011
- Affluent households skew higher in usage of Chili’s and Outback for dinner
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- Figure 64: Casual dining restaurants used for dinner, by household income, April 2011
- Families have strong acceptance for several leading casual dining chains for dinner
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- Figure 65: Casual dining restaurants used for dinner, by presence of children in household, April 2011
- Lunch
- Under-25s show uptick in usage of Olive Garden for lunch
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- Figure 66: Casual dining restaurants used for lunch, by age, April 2011
- High-income households seek out other casual dining restaurants
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- Figure 67: Casual dining restaurants used for lunch, by household income, April 2011
- Families are more likely to use a variety of casual dining chains at lunch
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- Figure 68: Casual dining restaurants used for lunch, by presence of children in household, April 2011
Spending at Casual Dining Restaurants
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- Key points
- Check average at dinner is a third higher than lunch tickets
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- Figure 69: Casual dining check average and party size, by daypart, April 2011
- Dinner
- Affluent restaurant-goers spend more at dinner
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- Figure 70: Casual dining check average and party size for dinner, by household income, April 2011
- Families spend less per person at casual restaurants for dinner
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- Figure 71: Casual dining check average and party size for dinner, by presence of children in household, April 2011
- Lunch
- Adults aged 25-34 have highest check average at lunch
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- Figure 72: Casual dining check average and party size for lunch, by household income, April 2011
Casual Dining Selection Factors
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- Key points
- Value and menu equally influential in restaurant selection
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- Figure 73: Important factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant, April 2011
- Women want a good variety of food choices
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- Figure 74: Important factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant, by gender, April 2011
- Older restaurant-goers most influenced by value, menu items, and location
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- Figure 75: Important factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant, by age, April 2011
- Alcoholic beverage options and promotions aren’t highly influential
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- Figure 76: Important factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant, by age, April 2011
- Restaurant performance in meeting demand of important attributes
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- Figure 77: Casual dining restaurant performance on important attributes, April 2011
- Men give restaurant higher rank for doing a good job in fresh, natural/organic foods
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- Figure 78: Casual dining restaurant performance on important attributes, by gender, April 2011
- Older restaurant-goers give restaurants higher score for value, menu items, and location
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- Figure 79: Casual dining restaurant performance on important attributes, by age, April 2011
- Under-35s are satisfied with casual dining efforts in alcoholic drink promotion
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- Figure 80: Casual dining restaurant performance on important attributes, by age, April 2011
Consumer Demands for Casual Dining Restaurants
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- Key points
- Healthier menu options and seafood top list of demands
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- Figure 81: Improvements for casual dining, April 2011
- Women want healthier food choices
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- Figure 82: Improvements for casual dining, by gender, April 2011
- Over-65s looking for smaller portions, seafood, fruits, and veggies
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- Figure 83: Improvements for casual dining, by age, April 2011
Attitudes Toward Casual Dining Experience
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- Key points
- Full-service experience remains cornerstone of casual dining
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- Figure 84: Attitudes toward casual dining experience, April 2011
- Healthier options could attract women to casual dining more often
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- Figure 85: Attitudes toward casual dining experience, by gender, April 2011
- Younger restaurant-goers perceive casual dining as expensive
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- Figure 86: Attitudes toward casual dining experience, by age, April 2011
Cluster Analysis
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- Fresh, Healthy Sitters
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Unimpressed and Optionless
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Casually Satisfied
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristic tables
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- Figure 87: Casual dining clusters, April 2011
- Figure 88: Important factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant, by casual dining clusters, April 2011
- Figure 89: Improvements for casual dining, by casual dining clusters, April 2011
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- Figure 90: Casual dining restaurant performance on important attributes, by casual dining clusters, April 2011
- Figure 91: Attitudes toward casual dining experience, by casual dining clusters, April 2011
- Cluster demographic tables
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- Figure 92: Casual dining clusters, by gender, April 2011
- Figure 93: Casual dining clusters, by age, April 2011
- Figure 94: Casual dining clusters, by household income, April 2011
- Figure 95: Casual dining clusters, by race, April 2011
- Figure 96: Casual dining clusters, by Hispanic origin, April 2011
- Cluster methodology
Custom Groups—Average Spend Percentiles
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- Lunch selection factors by average spend group
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- Figure 97: Important factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant, by average spend groups for lunch, April 2011
- Dinner selection factors by average spend group
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- Figure 98: Important factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant, by average spend groups for dinner, April 2011
- Lunch demands by average spend groups
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- Figure 99: Improvements for casual dining, by average spend groups for lunch, April 2011
- Dinner demands by average spend groups
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- Figure 100: Improvements for casual dining, by average spend groups for dinner, April 2011
Appendix—Trade Associations
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