Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail sales of liquid white & flavoured milk and cream, by value, 2005-15
- Price wars in 2010 see milk market value dip
- Cream benefits from rise in home cooking
- Flavoured milk benefits from strong branded presence
- Forecast
- Market factors
- Milk enjoys a healthy image
- The fortunes of tea and cereals stand to reflect on milk
- Concerns over long-term sustainability of milk prices
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Own-label dominates milk
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- Figure 2: Brand shares in the liquid white milk market, by value, 2009-10
- Figure 3: Brand shares in the flavoured milk market, by value, 2010
- Flavoured milk fuels innovation
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- Figure 4: New launches, by sub-category, milk, cream and substitutes, 2010
- Ad spend is dominated by a handful of operators
- The consumer
- Milk usage is in decline, semi-skimmed gaining share
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- Figure 5: Average purchased quantities of liquid milk per person per week, millilitres, 1974-2009
- Figure 6: Use of milk (excluding powdered and concentrated milk), Volume Importance Index, selected groups, 2010
- The top use of milk is with hot drinks and cereals
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- Figure 7: Usage of milk by occasion, daily and at least once a week, March 2011
- Milk enjoys strong health credentials, but remains off the radar for half of adults
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- Figure 8: Attitudes towards milk and cream, March 2011
- Opportunities for new takes on flavoured milk and interest in farmers
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- Figure 9: Attitudes towards added value in milk, March 2011
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How did the milk price war of 2010 affect the market?
- What factors can manufacturers leverage to add value to milk?
- To what extent will an aging population impact growth opportunities in the milk market?
- How can flavoured milk broaden its appeal beyond kids?
Future Opportunities
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- Trend: Prove It
- Trend: Fauxthenticity
Internal Market Environment
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- Key points
- Milk enjoys a healthy image
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- Figure 10: Trends in agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2006-10
- Brands build awareness of allergies and intolerances
- The dairy sector keeps working towards a greener image
- Hot drinks and breakfast cereals play a role in milk demand
- Slight decline in tea usage
- Cereal and muesli consumption steady
- Interest in cooking and convenience can support cream
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- Figure 11: Trends in attitudes towards cooking and convenience, 2006-10
Broader Market Environment
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- Key points
- Milk price debate continues
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- Figure 12: Number of farms in England, 1987-2009
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- Figure 13: Index of farmgate and retail price of milk, January 2008-March 2011
- Cautious 2011 ahead
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- Figure 14: GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index, Monthly January 2007-April 2011
- Slow growth in the number of families offers little help for milk
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- Figure 15: Adult population, by lifestage, 2010
- Figure 16: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2010-15
- Growth in number of ABs is good news for cream
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- Figure 17: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2010-15
Competitive Context
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- Key point
- Milk competes with yogurt and various drinks
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- Figure 18: UK retail value sales of selected markets competing with milk, at current prices, 2006-10
- Yogurt has forged an image as providing calcium
- Fruit smoothies lost momentum in recession
- Milk has niche usage as a sports drink
- Carbonates have performed well among soft drinks
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Flavoured milk fuels innovation
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- Figure 19: New launches, by sub-category, milk, cream and substitutes, 2008-10
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- Figure 20: New launches, by private label and brands, milk, cream and substitutes, 2008-10
- Figure 21: New launches, by brand, milk, cream and substitutes, 2008-10
- Vegetarian and low-fat claims most common
- Flavoured milks drive low fat and no-nasties claims
- Real innovation in greener packaging
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- Figure 22: New launches, top 12 claims, in milk, cream and substitutes, 2008-10
- Themes in NPD
- Flavoured milk sees segmentation in the UK
- A broader range of flavours and health benefits feature internationally
- New milk alternatives and cream flavours launched in UK in 2010
- International development in light and flavoured creams
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- The overall market posted volume growth of 3% over 2005-10
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- Figure 23: UK retail sales of white & flavoured milk and cream, 2005-15
- 2010 saw milk come under pressure from price wars
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- Figure 24: Forecast of UK retail sales of white milk, by value and volume, 2005-15
- Cream benefits from cooking but struggles with health image
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- Figure 25: Forecast of UK retail sales of cream, by value and volume, 2005-15
- Flavoured milk posts faster growth from a smaller base
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- Figure 26: Forecast of UK retail sales of flavoured milk, by value and volume, 2005-15
- Forecast
- Milk, flavoured milk and cream market to reach £4.3 billion
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- Figure 27: Forecast of UK retail sales of white & flavoured milk and cream, by value, 2005-15
- Value growth of 6.5% forecast for white milk by 2015
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- Figure 28: Forecast of UK retail sales of white milk, by volume, litres, 2005-15
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- Figure 29: Forecast of UK retail sales of white milk, by value, 2005-15
- Value sales of cream forecast to grow by 24% by 2015
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- Figure 30: Forecast of UK retail sales of cream, by value, 2005-15
- Strong growth forecast for flavoured milk
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- Figure 31: Forecast of UK retail sales of flavoured milk, by value, 2005-15
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Key points
- Skimmed milk grows in a declining market
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- Figure 32: Retail sales of fresh and long-life white milk by type, value and volume, 2009-10
- Added value segments perform best in milk
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- Figure 33: Retail sales of fresh white milk by type, by value, 2009-10
- Figure 34: Retail sales of fresh milk by type, by volume, 2009-10
- Cultured cream is top performer in 2010
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- Figure 35: UK retail sales of cream by type, by value, 2009-10
- Figure 36: UK retail sales of cream by type, by volume, 2009-10
Market Share
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- Key points
- Cravendale maintains its top position
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- Figure 37: Brand shares in the liquid white milk market, by value, 2009-10
- Figure 38: Estimated manufacturer shares of own-label liquid milk sales, by volume, 2010
- FRijj holds its lead in flavoured milk
- Mixed fortunes for leading players
- New entrants heat up the competition
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- Figure 39: Brand shares in the flavoured milk market, by value, 2009-10
Companies and Products
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- Arla Foods
- Dairy Crest
- Robert Wiseman Dairies
- FrieslandCampina
- Alpro
- Nestlé
- St Helen’s Farm
- Guernsey Dairy
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Ad spend rebounds in 2010
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- Figure 40: Topline advertising expenditure in the milk and cream market, 2006-10
- TV captures two thirds of ad spend
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- Figure 41: Advertising expenditure in the milk and cream market, by media type, 2008-10
- Arla accounts for nearly half of ad spend
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- Figure 42: Advertising expenditure in the milk and cream market, by top 10 companies, 2008-10
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- Figure 43: Advertising expenditure in the milk and cream market, by top 12 brands, 2008-10
- Leading brands look for mainstream appeal
- “Make Mine Milk” looks to engage the 15-24-year-olds
Consumer – Trends in Usage of Milk
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- Key points
- Milk consumption is in slow decline
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- Figure 44: Average purchased quantities of liquid milk per person per week, millilitres, 1974-2009
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- Figure 45: Trends in frequency of use of milk (excluding powdered and concentrated milk), 2009-10
- The shift towards semi-skimmed milk slows in 2010
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- Figure 46: Trends in kinds of milk (excluding powdered and concentrated milk) used most often, 2008-10
- Families are key users of milk
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- Figure 47: Use of milk (excluding powdered and concentrated milk), Volume Importance Index, selected groups, 2010
Consumer – Usage of Milk and Cream by Type and Occasion
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- Key points
- Semi-skimmed milk rules
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- Figure 48: Usage of milk in the household, by type, March 2011
- Three in four use semi-skimmed milk
- Alternatives enjoy minority appeal
- Flavoured milk is used by one in five households
- … and by half of 7-19-year-olds
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- Figure 49: Trends in frequency of drinking flavoured milk drinks, 2006-10
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- Figure 50: Drinking flavoured milk drinks by demographics, 2010
- Three in four have used cream
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- Figure 51: Usage/serving of cream in the last six months, by selected demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 52: Repertoire of cream usage, by type, March 2011
- Double cream is the most popular type
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- Figure 53: Cream used or served in the last six months, by type, March 2011
- Milk’s top use is in tea or coffee
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- Figure 54: Usage of milk, by occasion, daily and at least once a week, March 2011
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- Figure 55: Overall usage of milk, by occasion, March 2011
- Cream is most popular as a topping
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- Figure 56: Usage of cream by occasion, by frequency, March 2011
Consumer – Attitudes Towards Milk and Cream
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- Key points
- Milk enjoys strong health credentials, but remains off the radar for half of adults
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- Figure 57: Attitudes towards milk and cream, March 2011
- Milk enjoys strong health credentials
- ... but half of adults don’t think about it
- Cream suffers from a high-fat image
- One in five are swayed by milk prices
Consumer – Attitudes Towards Added Value in Milk
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- Key points
- Locally sourced milk of interest for half the nation
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- Figure 58: Attitudes towards added value in milk, March 2011
- Flavoured milk is seen as a way to win over the kids
- A large minority question its health credentials
- Strong interest in milk with fruit and berries
- High minority interest in added health benefits
- Niche demand for “grown-up” flavours
- Local sourcing chimes with half the nation
- Strong interest in supporting farmers
- Limited concern for animal welfare and environment
Target Groups
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- Key points
- Four target groups
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- Figure 59: Target groups for milk and cream, March 2011
- Milk-lovers (33%)
- Dairy-awares (20%)
- Should-dos (31%)
- Apathetics (17%)
Appendix – Internal Market Environment
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- Figure 60: Trends in agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2006-10
- Figure 61: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2010
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Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 62: Forecast of UK retail sales of white & flavoured milk and cream, by volume litres, 2005-15
- Figure 63: Forecast of UK retail sales of white milk, flavoured milk and cream, best and worst case forecast, by volume, litres, 2010-15
- Figure 64: Forecast of UK retail sales of white milk, flavoured milk and cream, best and worst case forecast, by value, 2010-15
- White milk
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- Figure 65: Forecast of UK retail sales of white milk, best and worst case forecast, by volume, litres, 2010-15
- Figure 66: Forecast of UK retail sales of white milk, best and worst case forecast, by value, 2010-15
- Cream
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- Figure 67: Forecast of UK retail sales of cream, by volume, litres, 2005-15
- Figure 68: Forecast of UK retail sales of cream, best and worst case forecast, by volume, litres, 2010-15
- Figure 69: Forecast of UK retail sales of cream, best and worst case forecast, by value, 2010-15
- Flavoured milk
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- Figure 70: Forecast of UK retail sales of flavoured milk, by volume, litres, 2005-15
- Figure 71: Forecast of UK retail sales of flavoured milk, best and worst case forecast, by volume, litres, 2010-15
- Figure 72: Forecast of UK retail sales of flavoured milk, best and worst case forecast, by value, 2010-15
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Appendix – Consumer – Trends in Usage of Milk
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- Figure 73: Trends in frequency of use of milk (excluding powdered and concentrated milk), 2009-10
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- Figure 74: Frequency of use of milk (excluding powdered and concentrated milk), by demographics, 2010
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- Figure 75: Trends in types of milk (excluding powdered and concentrated milk) used most often, 2008-10
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- Figure 76: Trends in kinds of milk (excluding powdered and concentrated milk) used most often, 2008-10
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- Figure 77: Trends in consumption of flavoured milk drinks, 2005-09
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- Figure 78: Consumption of flavoured milk drinks, by demographics, 2009
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Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Milk and Cream by Type and Occasion
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- Figure 79: Types of milk used, March 2011
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- Figure 80: Most popular types of milk used, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 81: Next most popular types of milk used, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 82: Other types of milk used, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 83: Most popular types of milk used for personal drink/use, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 84: Next most popular types of milk used for personal drink/use, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 85: Other types of milk used for personal drink/use, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 86: Usage of cream by type, in the past six months, March 2011
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- Figure 87: Most popular types of cream used in the last six months, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 88: Next most popular types of cream used in the last six months, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 90: Repertoire of usage of cream by type, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 91: Ways of personally using milk, by frequency, March 2011
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- Figure 92: Personal use of milk in tea or coffee, and cold with cereal/muesli, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 93: Personal use of milk in other hot drinks and on its own as a cold drink, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 94: Personal use of milk in making porridge and hot with cereal/muesli, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 95: Personal use of milk as an ingredient in another cold drink and on its own as a hot drink, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 96: Personal use of milk for cooking and as a drink on its own during/after exercise, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 97: Personal use of milk with flavourings added self, as a drink, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 98: Personal use of cream in cooking, and in baking, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 99: Personal use of cream as a topping on desserts, and in hot drinks, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 101: Repertoire of occasions milk is personally used for, overall usage, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 102: Repertoire of occasions cream is used for, March 2011
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- Figure 103: Repertoire of occasions cream is used for, by demographics, March 2011
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Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Milk and Cream
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- Figure 104: Attitudes towards milk and cream, March 2011
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- Figure 105: Agreement with statements ‘Milk is a good source of nutrients’ and ‘I prefer yogurt to milk because it has pre- and probiotics’, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 106: Agreement with statements ‘I try to consume three portions of dairy products a day’ and ‘I should drink more milk’, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 107: Agreement with statements ‘I don’t think of milk when choosing something to drink’ and ‘I rarely use cream because it’s so high in fat’, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 108: Agreement with statements ‘Milk is a healthier drink than water’ and ‘I use cream more than I did a year ago because I’m cooking at home more’, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 109: Agreement with statements ‘The price of milk affects where I do my grocery shopping’ and ‘I would use cream more if it lasted longer before going off’, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 110: Agreement with statements ‘Milk is healthier than fizzy drinks’ by demographics, March 2011
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Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Added Value in Milk
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- Figure 111: Attitudes towards added value in milk, March 2011
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- Figure 112: Agreement with statements ‘Flavoured milk is less healthy than unflavoured’ and ‘Flavoured milk is a good way to get kids to drink milk’, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 113: Agreement with statements ‘I would be interested in milk flavoured using fresh fruit and berries’ and ‘I would be interested in milk with flavours more appealing to adults’, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 114: Agreement with statements ‘I would be interested in milk with added health benefits’ and ‘Filtered milk doesn’t go off as quickly as standard milk’, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 115: Agreement with statements ‘I would like to see more locally sourced milk/cream at my supermarket’ and ‘I would pay more for milk which guarantees higher animal welfare’, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 116: Agreement with statements ‘I would pay more for milk if the extra money went to the farmers’ and ‘I pay attention to environmental considerations (eg packaging, carbon footprint) when buying milk’, by demographics, March 2011
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- Figure 117: Agreement with statements ‘Organic milk is worth paying more for’, by demographics, March 2011
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Appendix – Target Groups
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- Figure 118: Statements on eating habits, by target groups, March 2011
- Figure 119: Statements on cooking style, by target groups, March 2011
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- Figure 120: Attitudes towards milk and cream, by target groups, March 2011
- Figure 121: Attitudes towards added value in milk, by target groups, March 2011
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- Figure 122: Target groups, by demographics, March 2011
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