Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Mintel Menu Insights
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising Creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Fast casual establishes itself as a viable hybrid restaurant category
- Fast casual has weathered the recession better than have other restaurant-industry categories
- Several key demographic and psycho-demographic shifts have helped build fast casual
- Fast casual has evolved into three primary menu subcategories
- Fast casual is leveraging its menu advantages
- Social media have mitigated fast casual’s marketing deficit
- Fast casual is a solid contender for restaurant lunch business
- Panera Bread’s patronage pattern, like its sales data, skews results for the whole category
- Food taste, freshness and quality drive fast casual decisions
- What’s not to like?
Insights and Opportunities
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- Does fast casual still exist?
- Does fast casual still matter?
- What is fast casual’s most beneficial point of difference?
- If it survives, will it become more like fast food or casual dining?
- If it survives, will it see a shakeout of brands?
- Is price or quality more important to its survival?
- What is the biggest threat to fast casual’s growth?
- What is the biggest social factor in fast casual’s favor?
- Will bakery-cafés continue to be fast casual’s dominant style?
- Lunch is fast casual’s biggest daypart. Does the category have more growth potential at breakfast or dinner?
- Can fast casual expand customer base to include kids without alienating adults?
- Where are the new fast casuals?
Inspire Insights
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- Inspire Trend: The Fresh Factor
- Freshness communicates multiple qualities
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- Figure 1: Top 10 ingredient marketing claims on fast casual menus, by incidence, Q1 2008-Q1 2010
- Restaurants in action
- Implications
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- Figure 2: “Important” reasons for selecting a fast casual restaurant, April 2010
Market Size and Forecast
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- Sales slowed but expected to grow
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- Figure 3: U.S. sales at fast casual restaurants, at current prices, 2006-14
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- Figure 4: U.S. sales at fast casual restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-14
Market Drivers
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- Population impact
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- Figure 5: Annual estimates of U.S. population, by five-year age groups, 2000 and 2009
- What is value?
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- Figure 6: Top five restaurant qualities in terms of importance, November 2008 and October 2009
- Affordable luxury
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- Figure 7: U.S. disposable personal income growth, 2007-10
- The confidence game
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- Figure 8: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, 2007-10
- Lighter is better
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- Figure 9: Percentage of population who are overweight or obese—20-74 year olds, 1988-2006
- Figure 10: Incidence of presently watching/controlling diet, 2003 and 2008
- Transparently healthy
Segment Performance: Bakery-café
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- Impressive results for the leader mask stalled growth for whole category
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- Figure 11: Systemwide restaurant sales of leading bakery-café fast casual chains, 2007 and 2009
- Both quick-service and full-service restaurants are making changes to regain customers lost to bakery-cafés
Segment Performance—Ethnic
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- Chipotle continues to be the segment’s bright spot
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- Figure 12: Systemwide restaurant sales of leading ethnic menu fast casual chains, 2007 and 2009
- Uncertain ownership means uncertain future for many
- QSRs have made inroads on fast casual menus
Segment Performance—Traditional and Other
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- Not dominated by just one leading concept, the traditional-menu sector is the one to watch
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- Figure 13: Systemwide restaurant sales of leading traditional fast casual chains, 2007 and 2009
- Quick-service and casual dining chains already are making quality, price changes
Company Profile—Panera Bread
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- Overview
- Performance summary
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- Figure 14: Panera Bread sales, 2005-09
- Figure 15: Percent change in Panera Bread same-store sales, 2005-09
- Core customers
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- Figure 16: Usage of Panera Bread, by gender and age, April 2010
- On the menu
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- Figure 17: Makeup of Panera Bread café menu, Q2 2010
- Marketing and promotions
Company Profile: Chipotle Mexican Grill
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- Overview
- Company performance
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- Figure 18: Chipotle Mexican Grill financial performance, 2005-09
- Core customers
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- Figure 19: Usage of Chipotle Mexican Grill, by gender and age, April 2010
- On the menu
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- Figure 20: Makeup of Chipotle Mexican Grill menu, Q2 2010
- Marketing and promotion
Company Profile—Pei Wei Asian Diner
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- Overview
- Company performance
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- Figure 21: Pei Wei Asian Diner financial performance, 2005-09
- Core customer
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- Figure 22: Usage of Pei Wei Asian Diner, by gender and age, April 2010
- On the menu
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- Figure 23: Makeup of Pei Wei Asian Diner menu, Q2 2010
- Marketing and promotions
Company Profile: Einstein Noah Restaurant Group
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- Overview
- Company performance
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- Figure 24: Einstein Noah Restaurant Group financial performance, 2005-09
- Core customers
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- Figure 25: Usage of Einstein Bros. Bagels, by gender and age, April 2010
- On the menu
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- Figure 26: Makeup of Einstein Bros. Bagels menu, Q2 2010
- Marketing and promotions
Menu Insights Analysis: The Fast Casual Menu
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- Fast casual takes sandwiches upscale
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- Figure 27: Top 10 fast casual menus item sections, by incidence, Q1 2008-Q1 2010
- Figure 28: Top 10 fast casual menus item sections, by price, Q1 2008-Q1 2010
- Fast casual at breakfast
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- Figure 29: Top 10 fast casual menus items, by incidence, Q1 2008-Q1 2010
- Fast casual’s salad expertise tosses rivals
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- Figure 30: Top 10 fast casual menus items, by price, Q1 2008-Q1 2010
Menu Insights Analysis: Marketing the Fast Casual Menu
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- Figure 31: Top 10 ingredient marketing claims on fast casual menus, by incidence, Q1 2008-Q1 2010
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- Figure 32: Top 10 ingredient marketing claims on fast casual menus, by price, Q1 2008-Q1 2010
- Figure 33: Top 10 nutritional claims on fast casual menus, by incidence, Q1 2008-Q1 2010
- Figure 34: Top 10 nutritional claims on fast casual menus, by price, Q1 2008-Q1 2010
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Menu Insights Analysis: The Beverage Menu
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- Figure 35: Top 10 beverages on fast casual menus, by incidence, Q1 2008-Q1 2010
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- Figure 36: Top 10 beverages on fast casual menus, by price, Q1 2008-Q1 2010
- A toast to health
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- Figure 37: Top five beverage nutritional claims on fast casual menus, by incidence, Q1 2008-Q1 2010
- Figure 38: Top five beverage nutritional claims on fast casual menus, by price, Q1 2008-Q1 2010
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Advertising and Promotion
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- Overview
- Panera Bread uses its “Signature”
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- Figure 39: Panera Bread signature ad, 2009
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- Figure 40: Panera Bread and Einstein Bros. Bagels email alerts, 2010
- Figure 41: Panera Bread Via Panera ad, 2010
- Fazoli’s makes the case for fast Italian
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- Figure 42: Fazoli’s oven-baked pasta ad, 2010
- Figure 43: Fazoli’s point-of-purchase ad, 2010
- El Pollo Loco defines “grilled”
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- Figure 44: El Pollo Loco grilled ad, 2010
- Zaxby’s adds Southern charm to its Zalads
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- Figure 45: Zaxby’s zalads ad, 2010
Consumer Restaurant Segment and Daypart Usage
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- Figure 46: Types of restaurants visited in the past month, by daypart, April 2010
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- Figure 47: Types of restaurants visited in the past month, by age, April 2010
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- Figure 48: Types of restaurants visited in the past month, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2010
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- Figure 49: Types of restaurants visited in the past month, by household income, April 2010
- Addendum: Consumer question explanation
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Fast Casual Restaurant Usage and Usage Frequency
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- Fast casual continues to score highest at lunch
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- Figure 50: Fast casual daypart usage, April 2010
- Consumers know Panera Bread best
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- Figure 51: Fast casual usage and usage frequency, by restaurant, April 2010
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- Figure 52: Fast casual usage and usage frequency, by restaurant, by gender, April 2010
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- Figure 53: Fast casual usage, by restaurant, by age, April 2010
Fast Casual Selection Factors
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- What fast casual means to consumers
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- Figure 54: “Important” reasons for selecting a fast casual restaurant, 2008-10
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- Figure 55: “Important” reasons for selecting a fast casual restaurant, by gender, April 2010
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- Figure 56: “Important” reasons for selecting a fast casual restaurant, by age, April 2010
- Who doesn’t like fast casual?
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- Figure 57: Reasons for not eating at fast casual restaurants, April 2010
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- Figure 58: Reasons for not eating at fast casual restaurants, by household income, April 2010
Fast Casual Comparisons to Fast Food and Casual Dining
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- The price/value relationship: Fast casual vs. fast food
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- Figure 59: Attitudes toward fast casual compared to fast food, by age, April 2010
- The price/value relationship: Fast casual vs. casual dining
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- Figure 60: Attitudes toward fast casual compared to casual dining, by gender, April 2010
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- Figure 61: Attitudes toward fast casual compared to casual dining, by age, April 2010
Custom Groups: Light, Medium and Heavy Users
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- Key points
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- Figure 62: Fast casual daypart usage, April 2010
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- Figure 63: “Important” reasons for selecting a fast casual restaurant, by usage, April 2010
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- Figure 64: Attitudes toward fast casual compared to fast food, by usage, April 2010
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- Figure 65: Attitudes toward fast casual compared to casual dining, by usage, April 2010
Cluster Analysis
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- Maintainers
- Opportunity
- Foodies
- Opportunity
- F.C. Fans
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristics
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- Figure 66: Fast casual restaurant clusters, April 2010
- Figure 67: Fast casual usage, by fast casual restaurant clusters, April 2010
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- Figure 68: “Important” reasons for selecting a fast casual restaurant, by fast casual restaurant clusters, April 2010
- Figure 69: Usage compared to last year, by fast casual restaurant clusters, April 2010
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- Figure 70: Attitudes toward fast casual, by fast casual restaurant clusters, April 2010
- Cluster demographics
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- Figure 71: Fast casual restaurant clusters, by gender, April 2010
- Figure 72: Fast casual restaurant clusters, by age, April 2010
- Figure 73: Fast casual restaurant clusters, by household income, April 2010
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- Figure 74: Fast casual restaurant clusters, by race, April 2010
- Figure 75: Fast casual restaurant clusters, by Hispanic origin, April 2010
- Cluster methodology
Appendix: Additional Consumer Tables
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- Figure 76: Fast casual usage, by restaurant, by household income, April 2010
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- Figure 77: Fast casual usage, by restaurant, by race and ethnicity, April 2010
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- Figure 78: “Important” reasons for selecting a fast casual restaurant, by household income, April 2010
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- Figure 79: Reasons for not eating at fast casual restaurants, by age, April 2010
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- Figure 80: Attitudes toward fast casual compared to casual dining, by household income, April 2010
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Appendix: Trade Associations
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