Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
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- Figure 1: Fast casual companies comprising market size, by segment, 2009
- Changes to 2009 fast casual market size
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Mintel Menu Insights
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- The challenge of a recession
- Fast casual same-store sales trends suggest trade out/trade down pressure
- Tapered growth still cause for celebration
- Competitive context
- Segment performance: Bread-based, ethnic, and traditional
- Restaurant brand qualities
- Panera Bread
- Chipotle
- Steak ‘n Shake
- Boston Market
- The united colors of fast casual
- Menu innovation
- Open the door wider: Ethnic is not just Mexican or Chinese
- Fast casual restaurant usage and usage frequency
- Fast casual restaurant selection factors
- Consumer healthfulness self-perceptions
- Quality, healthfulness and proximity comparisons to fast food
- Fast casual restaurant use by beverage attribute
Insights and Opportunities
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- Open the door wider: Ethnic is not just Mexican or Chinese
- Key points
- Ethnic food will never be the same: Chipotle opens door to world cuisines
- Drilling down: “Food with Integrity” melds quality with healthfulness
- Bottom line
- Next stop, Mediterranean
- Why Indian? Why now?
- Indian lags other Asian cuisines on the menu—by a mile
- The case for a push into the mainstream
- Chutney Joe’s: Chipotle, meet Punjab
- The Decor: Chipotle, meet Punjab
- The food: Slowly cooked—consistently prepared
- The Feel: Punjab, meet Main Street
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- Figure 2: Chutney Joe’s, fast casual restaurant menu snapshot, May 2009
Inspire Insights
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- In search of the streamlined life
- Looking to the future: Life Hacking
- Web-based and apps-based mobile ordering will reshape LSR segment
- There’s an app for that
- Mobile ordering and smartphone applications ramping up
- What’s next?
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Tapered growth still cause for celebration
- Same-store sales trends suggest trade out/trade down pressure
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- Figure 3: Selected fast casual restaurant same-store sales growth trends, 2006-09
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- Figure 4: Total U.S. fast casual sales and forecast, at current prices, 2004-12
- Figure 5: Total U.S. fast casual sales and forecast, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-12
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Can I have premium with my value?
- Premium and unexpected food items
- Breakfast, please
- QSR and coffeehouse beverage menus flex premium muscles
- And about that value…
- Responding in kind
- While lines may be blurring, clear differences remain
- First things, first—a price difference, while smaller, still exists
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- Figure 6: Average price per entrée, by restaurant segment, 2007, 2008, and 2009
- And fast casual leads on quality and healthfulness—at least its users think so
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- Figure 7: Food attitudes, fast food versus fast casual, May 2009
- As for food and drink differences, the facts speak for themselves
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- Figure 8: Top five cuisine types, by restaurant segment, Q1 2009
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- Figure 9: Top 10 beverage types, by restaurant segment, Q1 2009
Segment Performance
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- Growth on the menu—whatever the cuisine
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- Figure 10: U.S. sales of leading fast casual chains, by “food” segment, 2006-08
Segment Performance—Bread-Based Restaurants
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- Key points
- Oh, to be a bread-based chain
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- Figure 11: U.S. sales of leading bread-based fast casual chains, 2006 and 2008
- Au Bon Pain takes private equity money to the bank
- Jason’s Deli adds its voice to healthful marketing
- Einstein Bros. Bagels
- Bruegger’s on the upswing
- Cosi and Atlanta Bread on the downswing
Segment Performance—Ethnic Restaurants
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- Key points
- Approaching Hispanic cuisine from the inside out, and from the outside in
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- Figure 12: U.S. sales of leading ethnic fast casual chains, 2006 and 2008
- Qdoba continues growth plans despite same-store sales declines
- Taco Cabana and Pollo Tropical: Hispanic brands with Hispanic intentions
- Pollo Tropical
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- Figure 13: Pollo Tropical sales metrics, 2006-08
- Taco Cabana
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- Figure 14: Taco Cabana sales metrics, 2006-08
- Going forward
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- Figure 15: Pollo Tropical and Taco Cabana company-owned same-store sales, 2009
- Pei Wei—the Pan Asian alternative
- Rubio’s Fresh Mexican Grill: more than fish, but fish remains the core
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- Figure 16: Rubio’s Fresh Mexican Grill same-store sales, 2006-08
- Going forward
- Moe’s Southwestern Grill
Segment Performance—Traditional Restaurants
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- Key points
- Old traditionalists versus new traditionalists?
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- Figure 17: U.S. sales of leading traditional fast casual chains, 2006 and 2008
- Buffalo Wild Wings floors the gas
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- Figure 18: Buffalo Wild Wings sales metrics, 2007-09
- Zaxby’s stays true to roots
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- Figure 19: Zaxby’s same-store sales growth trends, 2006-08
Market Drivers
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- Restaurant industry recession continues, but the bottom may be in sight
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- Figure 20: Restaurant Performance Index, current situation, and expectations, May 2007-July 2009
- Consumer confidence undermines willingness to spend at restaurants
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- Figure 21: Consumer Sentiment Index, by quarter, 2001-09
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- Figure 22: Fast casual restaurant spend compared to last year, by selected demographics, May 2009
- Aggressive expansion plans a recession gamble
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- Figure 23: Top five fast casual brands, by U.S. system-wide unit growth, 2007-08
- The united colors of fast casual
Restaurant Brand Qualities: Panera Bread
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- Performance summary
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- Figure 24: Panera Bread system-wide same-store sales growth trends, 2005-08
- The environment
- Panera users more apt to value healthfulness, quality, and customization “important” in an LSR
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- Figure 25: Important limited service restaurant attributes, selected responses, Panera Bread Users, May 2009
- Panera users skew to affluence, female, suburbia, and blue-collar singles and couples
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- Figure 26: Panera Bread top demographics and cohort groups, October 2007-December 2008
- On the menu
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- Figure 27: Panera Bread, top five cuisine types, Q3 2007-Q2 2009
- Figure 28: Panera Bread, top five general marketing claims, Q3 2007-Q2 2009
- Bakery items, sandwiches, soups and salads rule the menu
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- Figure 29: Panera Bread, new menu introductions, food, by menu course, Q2 2007-Q2 2009
- Growth trajectory: positive; conservative
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- Figure 30: Panera Bread company-owned same-store sales growth trends, 2009
Restaurant Brand Qualities: Chipotle
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- Performance summary
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- Figure 31: Chipotle company-owned same-store sales growth trends, 2006-08
- The environment
- Chipotle users more apt to value a variety of restaurant attributes “important” in an LSR
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- Figure 32: Important limited service restaurant attributes, selected responses, Chipotle users, May 2009
- Youth, ethnic/racial diversity, and affluence are hallmarks of user base
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- Figure 33: Chipotle top demographics and cohort groups, October 2007-December 2008
- On the menu
- Growth trajectory: positive, with slightly positive same-store growth and solid expansion
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- Figure 34: Chipotle company-owned same-store sales growth trends, 2008 versus 2009
Restaurant Brand Qualities: Steak ‘n Shake
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- Performance summary
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- Figure 35: Steak ‘n Shake company-owned same-store sales growth trends, 2007-08*
- The environment
- When choosing an LSR, it’s more about the finding a specific kind of menu item
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- Figure 36: Important limited service restaurant attributes, selected responses, Steak ‘n Shake users, May 2009
- Steak ‘n Shake: Racial and economic diversity at the table
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- Figure 37: Steak ‘n Shake top demographics and cohort groups, October 2007-December 2008
- On the menu
- Leveraging the drive-thru
- Goodbye to 24/7
- Growth trajectory: Better days ahead?
Restaurant Brand Qualities: Boston Market
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- Performance summary
- Important LSR factors: finding specific menu item and lower prices for group purchases
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- Figure 38: Important limited service restaurant attributes, selected responses, Boston Market users, May 2009
- Blacks drive usage; leading usage economic and educational backgrounds vary widely
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- Figure 39: Boston Market top demographics and cohort groups, October 2007-December 2008
- On the menu
- Growth trajectory: Positive, but conservative
Advertising and Promotion
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- Overview
- Value message
- Baja Fresh definitely makes the “fresh” point
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- Figure 40: Baja Fresh: freezers and microwaves or taco trio, September 2009
- Fazoli’s stakes brand image on anti-fast food
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- Figure 41: Fast food is being blown away by Fazoli’s new menu, June 2009
- Fuddruckers—burgers “stacked high”
- Steak ‘n Shake introduces low cost meals options, supports with taste satisfaction
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- Figure 42: Steak 'n Shake: good fresh meat, June 2009
- Zaxby’s lures with informal humor and relaxation
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- Figure 43: Zaxby’s: boneless wings—knock ‘em back, January 2009
- Boston Market extols the value of chicken
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- Figure 44: Boston Market: Twins love chicken, September 2008
- No low-cost proposition, just a quality message
- Jason’s Deli
- Panera Bread
- Qdoba Mexican Grill
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- Figure 45: Qdoba: dancing vegetables create a Signature Burrito, June 2009
- Branding excitement
Innovations and Innovators: On the Menu
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- Key points
- Sophistication and healthfulness marketed hand in hand
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- Figure 46: Top 10 general marketing claims, top fast casual restaurants, Q2 2007-Q2 2009
- If traditional American is the hub, ethnic/world flavors are the spokes
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- Figure 47: Top five cuisine types, top fast casual restaurants, Q2 2007-Q2 2009
- New menu introductions reflect trends afoot
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- Figure 48: New menu dish introductions, top fast casual restaurants, Q1 and Q2 2009
- Drilling down: Trending specific food menu introductions
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- Figure 49: Menu innovation trends, fast casual chain participation, 2009
- Growing breakfast
- Building out from breakfast
- Adding a twist to traditional
- Going “mini”
- Comfort/hearty fare
- Going upscale
- Health and “unhealth”
- Au Bon Pain has been actively experimenting with “petite portions”
- Doing good: Bruegger's goes cage-free in D.C. and Corner Bakery stays local
- A decidedly diversified beverage selection
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- Figure 50: Top 10 beverage types, top fast casual restaurants, Q2 2007-Q2 2009
Restaurant Usage Overview
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- Key points
- Restaurant usage
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- Figure 51: Restaurant usage in last year, by selected demographics, May 2009
- Restaurant usage, by segment
- Demographic analysis
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- Figure 52: Usage of restaurant segments in past three months, by gender, May 2009
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- Figure 53: Usage of restaurant segments in past three months, by selected HH income groups, May 2009
- Addendum: Consumer question explanation
Fast Casual Restaurant Usage and Usage Frequency
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- Key points
- Overview
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- Figure 54: Fast casual usage and usage frequency, by restaurant, May 2009
- Demographic analysis
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- Figure 55: Fast casual usage and usage frequency, top eight restaurants, by gender, May 2009
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- Figure 56: Fast casual usage, top eight restaurants, by age, May 2009
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- Figure 57: Fast casual usage and usage frequency, top eight restaurants, by HH income, May 2009
Fast Casual Restaurant Usage—Race and Ethnicity
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- Key points
- Fast casual usage by race/ethnicity
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- Figure 58: Top seven fast casual usage, by race/ethnicity, October 2007-December 2008
- Acculturated versus non-acculturated Hispanics
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- Figure 59: Top seven fast casual Hispanic usage, by degree of English spoken in home, October 2007-December 2008
Fast Casual Restaurant Selection Factors
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- Key points
- Section methodology
- 2008 versus 2009
- General food attributes
- Value and variety
- Where and what?
- Specific food choices
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- Figure 60: “Important” reasons for selecting a fast casual restaurant, 2008-09
- General food attributes
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- Figure 61: Fast casual selection factors—general food attributes, by age, May 2009
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- Figure 62: Fast casual selection factors—general food attributes, by HH income, May 2009
- Value and variety
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- Figure 63: Fast casual selection factors—value and variety, by gender, May 2009
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- Figure 64: Fast casual selection factors—value and variety, by age, May 2009
- Where and what?
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- Figure 65: Fast casual selection factors—where and what, by gender, May 2009
- Specific food choices
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- Figure 66: Fast casual selection factors— specific food choices, by age, May 2009
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- Figure 67: Fast casual selection factors—specific food choices, by ethnicity, May 2009
Consumer Healthfulness Self-Perceptions
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- Key points
- Health: consumers’ perceptions
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- Figure 68: Consumer diet self-perceptions, degree of healthfulness, May 2009
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- Figure 69: Importance of eating healthfully, degree of importance, May 2009
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- Figure 70: Restaurant segment usage, by diet healthfulness, May 2009*
Quality, Healthfulness and Proximity Comparisons to Fast Food
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- Key points
- Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants
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- Figure 71: Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, 2008-2009
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- Figure 72: Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, by age, May 2009
- Figure 73: Competitive attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, by HH income, May 2009
Custom Consumer Groups: Fast Casual Restaurant Use by Beverage Attribute
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- Key points
- Premium coffee drinkers
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- Figure 74: Fast casual usage, selected chains, by premium coffee usage, May 2009
- Smoothie lovers
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- Figure 75: Fast casual usage, selected chains, by smoothie enjoyment, May 2009
Cluster Analysis
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- Quality Queens
- Convenience Kids
- Casual Seniors
- Cluster characteristics
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- Figure 76: Fast casual clusters, May 2009
- Figure 77: Important limited service restaurant attributes, by fast casual clusters, May 2009
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- Figure 78: Fast casual restaurant spend compared to last year by fast casual clusters, May 2009
- Figure 79: Quality, Healthfulness and Proximity Comparisons to Fast Food, by fast casual clusters, May 2009
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- Figure 80: Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, by fast casual clusters, May 2009
- Cluster demographics
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- Figure 81: Fast casual clusters, by gender, May 2009
- Figure 82: Fast casual clusters, by age group, May 2009
- Figure 83: Fast casual clusters, by hh income group, May 2009
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- Figure 84: Fast casual clusters, by race, May 2009
- Figure 85: Fast casual clusters, by Hispanic origin, May 2009
- Cluster methodology
Appendix: Trade Associations
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