Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources and methodology
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising clips
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Bread market reached $20.5 billion in 2008
- All segments of the market grew during 2006-08
- Market consolidation continues
- Private-label thrives amid troubled economy
- Wholegrain, high fiber, natural are hottest trends
- Bread usage frequency is increasing
- Consumer attitudes and motivations
Insights and Opportunities
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- Time is right to focus on pricing strategy
- Private-label has room to grow
Inspire Insights
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- Craft not graft
- Transparency
- What's it about?
- What we've seen
- Specifics
- Implications
- What it means for bread
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- “Eating in” and wholegrain trends give bread sales a boost
- Bread prices continue to rise
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- Figure 1: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2003-13
- Walmart sales
Competitive Context
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- Decline in restaurant meals leads to rise in bread sales
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- Figure 3: Impact of the economy on restaurant spending, by age, February 2009
- Private-label becomes a force to be reckoned with
- Grupo Bimbo acquires powerhouse brands from George Weston
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Eating-in trend and whole grains movement drive sales in all segments
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- Figure 4: FDMx sales of bread, segmented by type, 2006 and 2008
Segment Performance—Fresh Loaf Bread
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- Key points
- Sales gains in FDMx being driven by higher prices
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- Figure 5: U.S. FDMx volume sales and average price of fresh loaf bread, 2005-08
- Sales and forecast
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- Figure 6: FDMx sales of fresh loaf bread, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 7: FDMx sales of fresh loaf bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2003-13
Segment Performance—Fresh Rolls, Buns and Croissants
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- Key points
- Volume sales dip, but prices rise in 2008
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- Figure 8: U.S. FDMx volume sales and average price of fresh rolls/buns/croissants, 2005-08
- Sales and forecast
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- Figure 9: FDMx sales of fresh rolls/buns/croissants, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 10: FDMx sales of fresh rolls/buns/croissants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2003-13
Segment Performance—Tortillas and Taco Shells
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- Key points
- Health-focused products and popularity of Mexican cuisine drive growth
- Diet trends have lesser impact compared to other types of bread
- Sales and forecast
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- Figure 11: FDMx sales of tortillas, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 12: FDMx sales of tortillas, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2003-13
Segment Performance—Bagels and English Muffins
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- Key points
- Long recovery from low-carb diet craze continues
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- Figure 13: U.S. FDMx volume sales and average price of bagels and English muffins, 2005-08
- Sales and forecast
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- Figure 14: FDMx sales of bagels/bialys/English muffins, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 15: FDMx sales of bagels/bialys/English muffins, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2003-13
Segment Performance—Frozen and Refrigerated Breads
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- Key points
- Poor economy a boon for sales in 2008
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- Figure 16: U.S. FDMx volume sales and average price of frozen and refrigerated bread products, 2005-08
- Sales and forecast
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- Figure 17: FDMx sales of refrigerated/frozen bread, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 18: FDMx sales of refrigerated/frozen bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2003-13
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Supermarkets lead in bread sales
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- Figure 19: Retail channels consumers have bought bread from in the last two weeks, March 2009
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- Figure 20: U.S. retail sales of bread, by retail channel, 2006 and 2008
Retail Channels—Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Supermarkets promoting private-label and discounting prices, but continue to lose share to supercenters
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- Figure 21: U.S. retail sales of bread at supermarkets/food stores, 2003-08
Retail Channels—Natural Foods Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Growing interest in whole grains, natural products drives sales
- But the stigma of high prices and other factors hamper the channel’s growth
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- Figure 22: Natural product supermarket retail sales of bread, at current prices, 2007-09
Market Drivers
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- Bread an affordable staple amid troubled economy
- Food prices will continue to rise in 2009
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- Figure 23: Average retail price white and wholewheat bread, 2004-09
- Consumers are bargain hunting as indicated in this year’s custom survey
- Healthy eating trend drives sales of wholegrain, natural breads
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- George Weston Bakeries sells off U.S. bakery division
- Sara Lee
- Flowers Foods’ sales keep blooming
- Bimbo Bakeries USA
- Interstate Bakeries Corp. emerges from bankruptcy
- Campbell Soup Company
- Manufacturer sales
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- Figure 24: FDMx sales of leading bread companies, 2008 and 2009
Brand Share—Fresh Loaf Bread
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- Healthy innovation drives brand sales
- Poor economy fuels private-label growth
- Manufacturer and brand sales
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- Figure 25: FDMx brand sales of frozen fresh loaf bread in the U.S., 2008 and 2009
Brand Share—Fresh Rolls, Buns and Croissants
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- Key points
- Arnold Select leads growth, gains market share
- Sara Lee and Flowers Foods far under-pace GWB
- Manufacturer and brand sales
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- Figure 26: FDMx brand sales of fresh rolls, buns and croissants in the U.S., 2008 and 2009
Brand Share—Tortillas and Taco Shells
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- Key points
- Mission leads market in innovation and sales
- Manufacturer and brand sales
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- Figure 27: FDMx brand sales of tortillas and taco shells in the U.S., 2008 and 2009
Brand Share—Bagels and English Muffins
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- Key points
- Thomas’ leads the segment and continues to grow
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- Figure 28: FDMx brand sales of bagels and English muffins in the U.S., 2008 and 2009
Brand Share—Frozen and Refrigerated Breads
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- Key points
- Private-label, small brands steal share from brand leaders
- Manufacturer and brand sales
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- Figure 29: FDMx brand sales of frozen and refrigerated bread in the U.S., 2008 and 2009
Brand Qualities
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- Pillsbury offers comfort during troubled times
- Healthy Life aims to be a dieter’s best friend
Innovations and Innovators
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- Key points
- Following a surge in 2008, pace of innovation slows in 2009
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- Figure 30: Top ten product claims for new bread products in the U.S, 2007-09
- Private-label brands among top innovators
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- Figure 31: Top ten companies ranked, by number of new bread products, 2007-April 2009
- What consumers want: whole grains, high fiber, and no HFCS
- Natural and organic is growing
- Artisan bread is getting hot
- Functional bread works for you
Advertising and Promotion
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- Overview
- Arnold makes eating right easier
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- Figure 32: Arnold bread television ad, 2008
- Healthy Life targets dieters
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- Figure 33: Healthy Life bread television ad, 2008
- Nature’s Pride offers the purest ingredients
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- Figure 34: Nature’s Pride bread television ad, 2009
- Pillsbury aims to make every meal a special occasion
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- Figure 35: Pillsbury Grands Biscuits television ad, 2009
- Thomas’ muffins are so good, it’s a crime
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- Figure 36: Thomas’ hearty grains English muffins television ad, 2008
- Grain Foods Foundation promo shows bread is beautiful
- Tortillas on a Mission
Bread Usage
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- Key points
- Household consumption of bread
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- Figure 37: Household usage of bread products, by product type, 2005-08
- Varieties of bread used in household
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- Figure 38: Types of bread used in household, 2005-08
- Volume of bread usage
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- Figure 39: Number of loaves consumed by household in last week, by household income, July 2007-September 2008
- Brand preferences
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- Figure 40: Brands of bread used in household, by household income, July 2007-September 2008
Impact of Ingredients, Product Qualities and the Economy on Bread Purchase
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- Key points
- Purchase of bread with health claims
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- Figure 41: Bread purchased with specific ingredients or marketing claims, by age, March 2009
- Most important qualities when purchasing bread
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- Figure 42: Qualities looked for when purchasing bread, by gender, March 2009
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- Figure 43: Qualities looked for when purchasing bread, by age, March 2009
Attitudes towards Bread, Brand Loyalty and the Effect of the Recession
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- Key points
- Attitudes toward bread
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- Figure 44: Opinions about various kinds of bread, by age, March 2009
- Brand loyalty
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- Figure 45: Loyalty to brands, and the effect of price when purchasing bread, by age, March 2009
- Impact of the economy on bread purchasing
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- Figure 46: Impact of current economic situation on bread purchasing, by age, March 2009
Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Household consumption of bread types follows stereotypes
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- Figure 47: Household usage of bread products, by product type, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2007-September 2008
- Varieties of bread used in household
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- Figure 48: Types of bread used in households, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2007-September 2008
- Attitudes toward bread
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- Figure 49: Opinions about various kinds of bread, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2009
- Purchase locations
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- Figure 50: Retail channels consumers have bought bread from in the last two weeks, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2009
- Brand loyalty
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- Figure 51: Loyalty to brands, and the effect of price when purchasing bread, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2009
- Impact of the economy on bread purchasing
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- Figure 52: Impact of current economic situation on bread purchasing, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2009
Cluster Analysis
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- Thrifty, unadventurous xenophobes
- Who they are
- Opportunity
- White-averse, bread-aislers
- Who they are
- Opportunity
- In-store breadaholics
- Who they are
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristics
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- Figure 53: Bread buyer clusters, March 2009
- Figure 54: Retail channels consumers have bought bread from in the last two weeks, by bread buyer clusters, March 2009
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- Figure 55: Bread bought in the last month, by type, by bread buyer clusters, March 2009
- Figure 56: Qualities looked for when purchasing bread, by bread buyer clusters, March 2009
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- Figure 57: Changes to bread purchasing and eating habits as compared to last year, by bread buyer clusters, March 2009
- Figure 58: Opinions about various kinds of bread, by bread buyer clusters, March 2009
- Cluster demographics
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- Figure 59: Bread buyer clusters, by gender, March 2009
- Figure 60: Bread buyer clusters, by age, March 2009
- Figure 61: Bread buyer clusters, by household income, March 2009
- Cluster methodology
Custom Consumer Groups
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- Families with teens, single parents and students are prime targets for bread marketers
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- Figure 62: Volume of bread usage, by key user cohorts, July 2007-September 2008
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- Figure 63: Household consumption of various bread products, by key user cohorts, July 2007-September 2008
- Clear lines distinguish “multigrain” and “white bread” cohort groups
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- Figure 64: Household consumption of bread types, by key user cohorts, July 2007-September 2008
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- Figure 65: Brands of bread used in the household, by key user cohorts, July 2007-September 2008
- Gender and age differences highlight priorities with bread
- BFY bread appeals to more so to women
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- Figure 66: Opinions about kinds of bread, by gender and age, March 2009
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- Figure 67: Qualities looked for when purchasing bread, by gender and age, March 2009
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- Figure 68: Bread purchased with specific ingredients or marketing claims, by gender and age, March 2009
IRI/Builders Panel Data—Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Overview of fresh bread and rolls
- Fresh bread
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—fresh bread
- Brand map
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- Figure 69: Brand map, selected brands of fresh bread, buying rate by household penetration, 2008*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 70: Key purchase measures for the top brands of fresh bread, by household penetration, 2008*
- Fresh rolls/buns/croissants
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—fresh rolls/buns/croissants
- Brand map
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- Figure 71: Brand map, selected brands of fresh rolls/buns/croissants, buying rate by household penetration, 2008*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 72: Key purchase measures for the top brands of fresh rolls/buns/croissants, by household penetration, 2008*
- Bagels/bialys
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—bagels/bialys
- Brand map
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- Figure 73: Brand map, selected brands of bagels/bialys, buying rate by household penetration, 2008*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 74: Key purchase measures for the top brands of bagels/bialys, by household penetration, 2008*
Appendix: Simmons Cohorts
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- Figure 75: Married couples cohorts
- Figure 76: Single women cohorts
- Figure 77: Single men cohorts
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Appendix: Producer Price Index for Wheat
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- Figure 78: Producer price index for wheat, 2003-08
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Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Bread usage
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- Figure 79: Types of bread bought in the last month, by gender, March 2009
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- Figure 80: Types of bread bought in the last month, by age, March 2009
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- Figure 81: Types of bread bought in the last month, by number of children in household, March 2009
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- Figure 82: Types of bread bought in the last month, by region, March 2009
- Impact of ingredients, product qualities, and the economy on bread purchase
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- Figure 83: Bread purchased with specific ingredients or marketing claims, by gender, March 2009
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- Figure 84: Bread purchased with specific ingredients or marketing claims, by household income, March 2009
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- Figure 85: Bread purchased with specific ingredients or marketing claims, by education level, March 2009
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- Figure 86: Economic effects on bread purchasing, by household income, March 2009
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- Figure 87: Qualities looked for when purchasing bread, by household income, March 2009
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- Figure 88: Qualities looked for when purchasing bread, by number of children in household, March 2009
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- Figure 89: Qualities looked for when purchasing bread, by education level, March 2009
- Changes in bread purchasing and eating habits
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- Figure 90: Bread purchasing habits, by gender, March 2009
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- Figure 91: Changes in bread purchases since last year, by gender, March 2009
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- Figure 92: Changes in bread purchases since last year, by age, March 2009
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- Figure 93: Changes in bread purchases since last year, by household income, March 2009
- Attitudes towards bread, brand loyalty and the effect of the recession
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- Figure 94: Opinions about kinds of bread, by gender, March 2009
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- Figure 95: Opinions about kinds of bread, by household income, March 2009
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- Figure 96: Opinions about kinds of bread, by education level, March 2009
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- Figure 97: Tendencies when purchasing bread, by gender, March 2009
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- Figure 98: Types of bread used in households, by household income, July 2007-September 2008
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- Figure 99: Types of bread used in households, by presence of children, July 2007-September 2008
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- Figure 100: Types of bread used in households, by region, July 2007-September 2008
Appendix: IRI/Builders Panel Data Definitions
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- IRI Consumer Network Metrics
Appendix: Trade Associations
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