Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- The bottom line
- The good news
- The bad news
- Category and segment sales and growth
- Strong sales in 2007 will follow with a slowdown in 2008 and beyond
- Retail channel sales and growth
- Factors that negatively impact sales growth
- Product innovations within the category
- What consumers want in cereal bars
- Habits and beliefs of the cereal bar consumer
- Opportunities
Insights and Opportunities
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- Product specificity has its place with consumers
- Target women
- And on the horizon…
- Target children
- Target Asians and Hispanics
- Target consumers 45+
- Target budget consumers and those seeking premium bars
Fast Forward Trends
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- Mood from Food
- What's it about?
- What we've seen
- Cereal bars could be in the driver’s seat—but they aren’t
- Implications
- Menaissance: Return of the Manly Man
- What's it about?
- Specifics
- A question of satiety?
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Robust growth in 2007 came from functional and natural product innovations
- Tough economic times stunt category growth in 2008
- But the good news is—healthy snacking will make the cut
- Sales and forecast of cereal and granola bars
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- Figure 1: FDMx sales of cereal bars and granola bars at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 2: FDMx sales of cereal bars and granola bars at inflation adjusted prices**, 2003-13
- Wal-Mart sales
Competitive Context
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- Bars compete primarily with other bars
- Yogurt and breakfast cereals pose a threat as well
Segment Performance
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- Strong growth of 18.3% from 2006-08
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- Figure 3: FDMx sales of cereal bars and granola bars segmented by type, 2006 and 2008
Segment Performance—Granola Bars
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- Key points
- The big players give consumers a healthy variety of healthy snacks
- Naturally-positioned brands drive the segment’s performance
- Sales and forecast of granola bars
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- Figure 4: FDMx sales of granola bars at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 5: FDMx sales of granola bars at inflation adjusted prices**, 2003-13
Segment Performance—Cereal Bars
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- Key point
- Cereal bars aren’t just for breakfast anymore
- Sales and forecast of cereal bars
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- Figure 6: FDMx sales of cereal bars at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 7: FDMx sales of cereal bars at inflation adjusted prices, 2003-13
Retail Channels
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- Key points
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- Figure 8: FDMx sales of cereal bars and granola bars, by channel, 2006 and 2008
Retail Channels—Supermarkets
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- Economic slowdown impacts “grab-and-go” bar sales in 2008
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- Figure 9: U.S. sales of cereal bars and granola bars at supermarkets, 2003-08
Retail Channels—Drug and Mass
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- Drug and mass sales double from 2003-08
- Mass outlets are growing most thanks to food sales
- Drug outlets capitalize on impulse purchases
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- Figure 10: U.S. sales of cereal bars and granola bars in drug and mass**, 2003-08
Retail Channels—Natural Supermarkets
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- By distinguishing brands and offerings, natural markets remain relevant
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- Figure 11: U.S. sales of cereal bars and granola bars in natural supermarkets, at current prices, 2006–08
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- Figure 12: U.S. sales of cereal bars and granola bars in natural supermarkets, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006–08
- Organic sales continue upward
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- Figure 13: U.S. sales of cereal bars and granola bars in natural supermarkets, by organic content, 2006-08
- Gluten-free products emerging
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- Figure 14: U.S. sales of cereal bars and granola bars in natural supermarkets, by gluten content, 2006-08
Market Drivers
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- Health, wellness, and functionality
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- Figure 15: Attitudes towards healthy eating, 2003 and 2008
- Figure 16: Percentage of population who are overweight or obese—20-74-year-olds, 1988-2004
- Targeting consumers 45+
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- Figure 17: usage of cereal bars, respondents aged 45-64, by usage incidence and population, 2006 and 2008
- Asians
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- Figure 18: Asian usage of cereal bars, adults 18+, by usage incidence and population, 2006 and 2008
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- General Mills establishes leadership position
- Creative co-branding outside its brand portfolio
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- Figure 19: FDMx sales of leading cereal bar and granola bar manufacturers in the U.S., 2006 and 2008
- Leading brands in the natural supermarket channel
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- Figure 20: Natural supermarket sales of leading cereal bars and granola bars in the U.S., 2006 and 2008
Brand Share—Granola Bars
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- Key points
- General Mills innovates in the segment with mixed results
- Nature Valley holds its own
- Natural and organic offerings barely making an impact... so far
- Quaker’s alternative approach; product offerings all under one umbrella
- Kellogg finds success with a truly natural brand
- Private label granola bars aren’t a regular choice for consumers
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- Figure 21: Selected brand FDMx sales and market share of granola bars in the U.S., 2006 and 2008
Brand Share—Cereal Bars
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- Key points
- Kellogg is dominant but needs to develop other brands to stay on top
- Nutri-Grain may need to evolve with consumer tastes
- General Mills finds a winner in Fiber One
- Kraft struggles for consumer awareness and success
- Quaker Oats hasn’t found an answer in cereal bars
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- Figure 22: Selected brand FDMx sales and market share of cereal bars in the U.S., 2006 and 2008
Brand Qualities
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- Key points
- General Mills finds a winner in Fiber One
- Endorsements of approval
- Fiber isn’t just about regularity; it’s about fullness (satiety)
- Natural and organic brand launches: four scenarios; varying results
- Scenario 2: Kashi TLC
- Scenario 4: Quaker Simple Harvest
- Natural and organic less relevant than healthy claims
Innovation and Innovators
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- Functional foods continue onward and upward
- “State of the art” addresses the “state of the union”
- Targeting women
- Targeting kids
- Growing the category by getting back to basics
- Adapting to bar “burnout”
- Value options sure to please cash-strapped consumers
Advertising and Promotion
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- Overview
- Multi-pronged marketing approach may not be enough
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- Figure 23: Quaker Chewy granola bar, television ad, 2008
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- Figure 24: Quaker Chewy granola bar with protein, television ad, 2008
- Targeting each gender
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- Figure 25: Nature Valley Oats ‘N Honey crunchy granola bar, television ad, 2007
- Marketing the emotional and experiential benefits of soy to women
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- Figure 26: SOYJOY soy and fruit bars—blog, television ad, 2007
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- Figure 27: SOYJOY soy and fruit bars—rainy day, television ad, 2008
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- Figure 28: SOYJOY soy and fruit bars—spontaneity, television ad, 2008
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- Figure 29: SOYJOY soy and fruit bars—frolicking, television ad, 2008
Breakfast, Granola, Protein and Diet Bars: A Consumer Overview
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- Key points
- Usage of breakfast, granola, protein and diet bars
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- Figure 30: Cereal/breakfast bar, nutrition/protein bar, diet bar, and granola bar consumption, by selected demographics, August/September 2008
- Usage by bar type
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- Figure 31: Types of bars eaten: granola bar, cereal/breakfast bar energy/protein bar, diet bar, August/September 2008
- Usage rationales
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- Figure 32: Usage rationales for granola bars, cereal/breakfast bars energy/protein bars, and diet bars, August/September 2008
- Usage by daypart
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- Figure 33: Granola bar, cereal/breakfast bar, energy/protein bar, and diet bar usage, by daypart, August/September 2008
- Brand purchase influencers
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- Figure 34: Factors influencing granola bar, cereal/breakfast bar, energy/protein bar, and diet bar purchase, August/September 2008
Cereal Bar and Granola Bar Usage
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- Key points
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- Figure 35: cereal/breakfast bar and granola bar usage, by selected demographics, August/September 2008
Reasons for Eating Cereal Bars and Granola Bars, Usage by Daypart, and Purchase Influencers
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- Key points
- Reasons for eating cereal bars
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- Figure 36: Reasons for eating cereal/breakfast bars, by age, August/September 2008
- Reasons for eating granola bars
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- Figure 37: Reasons for eating granola bars, by age, August/September 2008
- Usage by daypart
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- Figure 38: Granola bar and cereal/breakfast bar usage, by daypart, by gender, August/September 2008
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- Figure 39: Granola bar and cereal/breakfast bar usage, by daypart, by age, August/September 2008
- Brand purchase influencers
- Cereal bars
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- Figure 40: Cereal/breakfast bar brand purchase influencers, by gender, August/September 2008
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- Figure 41: Cereal/breakfast bar brand purchase influencers, by age, August/September 2008
- Granola bars
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- Figure 42: Granola bar brand purchase influencers, by gender, August/September 2008
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- Figure 43: Granola bar brand purchase influencers, by age, August/September 2008
Attitudes Towards and Competitive Positioning of Cereal/Breakfast Bars
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- Satisfaction not guaranteed
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- Figure 44: Attitudes towards and competitive positioning of cereal/breakfast bars, by gender, August/September 2008
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- Figure 45: Attitudes towards and competitive positioning of cereal/breakfast bars, by age, August/September 2008
Teens and Cereal/Granola Bars
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- Girls love cereal bars but gravitate towards granola bars as they get older
- A shifting opinion of cereal bars
- A difficult target for marketers of granola bars
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- Figure 46: Teen consumption of cereal/granola bars, by gender and age, 2006 and 2007
- A chip off the old block
- Girls like brand variety
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- Figure 47: Teen consumption of cereal/granola bars, by brand and by gender, January-November 2007
Cluster Analysis
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- Bar Regulars
- Who they are
- Opportunity
- Bar Leavers
- Who they are
- Opportunity
- Bar Visitors
- Who they are
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristics
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- Figure 48: Cereal bar clusters, September 2008
- Figure 49: Types of bars eaten: granola bar, cereal/breakfast bar energy/protein bar, diet bar, by cereal bar clusters, August/September 2008
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- Figure 50: Usage rationales for granola bars, cereal/breakfast bars energy/protein bars, and diet bars, by cereal bar clusters, August/September 2008
- Figure 51: Factors influencing granola bar, cereal/breakfast bar, energy/protein bar, and diet bar purchase, by cereal bar clusters, August/September 2008
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- Figure 52: Attitudes towards and competitive positioning of cereal/breakfast bars, by cereal bar clusters, August/September 2008
- Cluster demographics
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- Figure 53: Cereal bar clusters, by gender, September 2008
- Figure 54: Cereal bar clusters, by age group, September 2008
- Figure 55: Cereal bar clusters, by income group, September 2008
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- Figure 56: Cereal bar clusters, by race, September 2008
- Figure 57: Cereal bar clusters, by Hispanic origin, September 2008
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- Figure 58: Cereal bar clusters, by employment status, September 2008
- Cluster methodology
IRI/Builders—Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Overview of snack bar/granola bar purchases
- Granola bars
- Brand map
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- Figure 59: Brand map, selected brands of granola bars, by household penetration, *2007
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—granola bars
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 60: Key purchase measures for the top brands of granola bars, by household penetration, *2007
- Breakfast/cereal/snack bars
- Brand map
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- Figure 61: Brand map, selected brands of breakfast/cereal/snack bars, by household penetration, *2007
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—breakfast/cereal/snack bars
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 62: Key purchase measures for the top brands of breakfast/cereal/snack bars, by household penetration, *2007
- Rice snack squares
- Brand map
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- Figure 63: Brand map, selected brands of rice snack squares, by household penetration, 2007
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—rice snack squares
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 64: Key purchase measures for the top brands of rice snack squares, by household penetration, *2007
Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Figure 65: Nature Valley usage and usage frequency, by cohort, February 2007-March 2008
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- Figure 66: Quaker Chewy Granola Bar usage and usage frequency, by cohort, February 2007-March 2008
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- Figure 67: Kellogg’s Nutri-grain Bar usage and usage frequency, by cohort, February 2007-March 2008
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- Figure 68: Food attitudes, by bar brand users, February 2007-March 2008
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Appendix: IRI/Builders Panel Data Definitions
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- IRI Consumer Network Metrics
Appendix: Trade Associations
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