Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Market at a glance
- Single servings help dry macaroni and cheese rebound in 2007
- Top 10 manufacturers account for nearly two thirds of sales
- Supermarkets eclipse other outlets in the side dish market
- Kids, blacks, and young adults make up consumer base
- Kraft and Chef Boyardee brands lead
- Majority of consumers interested in healthier versions of shelf-stable meals
- Consumers recognize a difference in brand quality
Insights and Opportunities
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- Consumers want fast, easy gourmet meals
- Meal kits for kids
- Consumers want lower-priced meals but also want healthy attributes
- Making convenience even easier
- Private-label gourmet
- Popularity of South East Asian cuisine on the rise
- Niche exists for gluten-free pasta meal kits
Fast Forward Trend
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- Simplicity and convenience
- What it’s about
- What we’ve seen
- Specifics
- Keep it simple
- Give me a sign
- Just one benefit will do
- Implications
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Value positioning and healthy attributes may boost declining sales
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- Figure 1: FDMx sales of shelf-stable meals and kits, at current prices, 2003-13
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- Figure 2: FDMx sales of shelf-stable meals and kits, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2003-13
- Wal-Mart sales
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Refrigerated foods have fresher image
- Frozen meals lead new product launch volume
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- Figure 3: New meals and meal kits introductions*, by storage type, January-October 2006 and January-October 2008
- QSR value meals pose fierce competition
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Pasta dishes, especially mac & cheese, are shelf-stable favorites
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- Figure 4: FDMx sales of shelf-stable meals and kits, by segment, 2006 and 2008
Segment Performance—Dry Macaroni and Cheese
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- Key points
- Familiar brands and flavors are the key
- Competition from other segments is waning
- Non-traditional retail outlets hold promise for increased sales
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- Figure 5: FDMx sales and forecast of dry macaroni and cheese, at current prices, 2003-13
Segment Performance—Prepared Pasta Dishes
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- Key points
- Healthy-positioned side dishes fill a need
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- Figure 6: FDMx sales and forecast of prepared pasta dishes, at current prices, 2003-13
Segment Performance—Prepared Chili and Sloppy Joe Sauce
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- Key points
- Status quo will lead to continued declines
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- Figure 7: FDMx sales and forecast of prepared chili and sloppy joe sauce, at current prices, 2003-13
Segment Performance—Microwaveable Package Dinners
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- Key points
- To-go products meet need for convenience
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- Figure 8: FDMx sales and forecast of microwaveable package dinners, at current prices, 2003-13
Segment Performance—Prepared Dinners/Entrées
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- Key points
- Microwaveable competitors are taking away share
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- Figure 9: FDMx sales and forecast of prepared dinners/entrées, at current prices, 2003-13
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Convenience channels can stimulate growth through increasing single-serve selection
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- Figure 10: FDMx sales of shelf-stable meals, by retail channel, 2006 and 2008
Retail Channels—Supermarkets
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- Key point
- Other channels stealing bits of share
- Variety is the key to future growth
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- Figure 11: Supermarket sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits, 2003-08
Retail Channels—Drug and Mass
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- Key points
- Other channels meet the need for immediate convenience
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- Figure 12: Drug and mass* sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits, 2003-08
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Low consumer confidence leads to more meals at home
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- Figure 13: Consumer attitudes about shopping and food prices, by household income, June/July 2008
- Usage down for shelf-stable meal kits 2003-07
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- Figure 14: Household consumption of selected shelf-stable meals, 2003-08
- Households with children drive growth
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- Figure 15: Who in household eats shelf-stable meals, June/July 2008
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- Figure 16: Household consumption of selected shelf-stable meals, by presence of children, February 2007-March 2008
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- Figure 17: Households, by presence of children under age 18, 1997-2007
- Ethnic households
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- Figure 18: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2003-13
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- Figure 19: Household consumption of selected shelf-stable meals, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2007-March 2008
- Figure 20: Number of packaged dinner mixes used by household in last 30 days, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2007-March 2008
- Young adults are key consumers, but population in decline
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- Figure 21: Complete packaged dinner usage, by type of dinner, by age, February 2007-March 2008
- Figure 22: Number of shelf-stable meals eaten, by age, June/July 2008
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- Figure 23: Population, by age, 2003-13
- Health concerns growing in the U.S.
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- Figure 24: Attitudes regarding healthy eating, 2003-08
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Kraft overtakes ConAgra
- Hormel leads growth
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- Figure 25: FDMx sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits, by leading manufacturers, 2007 and 2008
Brand Share—Dry Macaroni and Cheese
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- Key points
- Familiar brands and flavors are the key
- Annie’s Homegrown sets itself apart
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- Figure 26: FDMx brand sales of dry macaroni and cheese in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
Brand Share—Prepared Pasta Dishes
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- Key point
- ConAgra holds firm
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- Figure 27: FDMx brand sales of prepared pasta dishes in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
Brand Share—Prepared Chili and Sloppy Joe Sauce
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- Key points
- New product innovation needed to spur market
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- Figure 28: FDMx brand sales of prepared chili and sloppy joe sauce in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
Brand Share—Microwaveable Package Dinners
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- Key points
- Hormel Compleats takes the market by storm
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- Figure 29: FDMx brand sales of microwaveable package dinners in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
Brand Share—Prepared Dinners/Entrées
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- Key point
- Mary Kitchen makes meat and potatoes easy
- Castleberry recall halts sales
- Tasty Bites holds promise
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- Figure 30: FDMx brand sales of prepared dinners/entrées in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
Brand Qualities
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- Key point
- Kraft targets individual family members
- Hormel delivers for time-starved on-the-go diners
Innovation and Innovators
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- Shelf-stable allows consumers to try ethnic foods with little risk
- Brown-bag lunch gives way to microwave meals for one
- Decline in dining out presents opportunity of co-branding
- Good-for-you can be convenient too
Advertising and Promotion
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- Overview
- Kraft
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- Figure 31: Kraft Macaroni & Cheese Cheesasaurus TV ad, 2008
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- Figure 32: Kraft Easy Mac Lunch Table TV ad, 2008
- Hormel
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- Figure 33: Hormel Compleats microwaveable meals TV ad, 2007
Usage
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- Key point
- Larger households, especially those with children, more likely to favor shelf-stable meals
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- Figure 34: Household consumption of selected shelf-stable meals, by household size, February 2007-March 2008
- Regional differences appear in monthly consumption of shelf-stable meals
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- Figure 35: Household consumption of selected shelf-stable meals, by region, February 2007-March 2008
Brand Preferences
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- Key points
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- Figure 36: Brand preferences for complete packaged dinner mixes, February 2007-March 2008
Attitudes and Motivations
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- Key points
- Younger consumers report more occasions for eating shelf-stable meals
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- Figure 37: Meal occasions for shelf-stable meals, by age, June/July 2008
- Shelf-stable meals more likely to be a lunch or snack option in households with kids
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- Figure 38: Meal occasions for shelf-stable meals, by presence of children in household, June/July 2008
- Shelf-stable meals appear to be last resort for women short on time
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- Figure 39: Personal consumption and usage of shelf-stable meals, by gender, June/July 2008
- Shelf-stable meals appear to be a regular part of young consumers’ lives
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- Figure 40: Personal consumption and usage of shelf-stable meals, by age, June/July 2008
- Apparent need for healthier options for kids
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- Figure 41: Children’s attitudes and behaviors toward shelf-stable meals, by gender of parent, June/July 2008
Consumer Opinions Regarding New Product Options
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- Key points
- Healthier options garner highest degree of interest
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- Figure 42: Consumer interest in new shelf-stable meal options, by age, June/July 2008
- Shelf-stable meals consumers want quality, but at a low price
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- Figure 43: Consumer interest in new shelf-stable meal options, by household income, June/July 2008
Consumer Attitudes About Cooking
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- Key points
- Healthier attitudes among younger adults don’t necessarily match actions
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- Figure 44: Consumer attitudes about cooking and health, by age, June/July 2008
- Households with children can also be gourmet households
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- Figure 45: Consumer attitudes about cooking and health, by presence of children in household, June/July 2008
Race and Hispanic origin
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- Key point
- Black and Hispanic households are core consumers of shelf-stable meals
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- Figure 46: Types of complete packaged dinner mixes eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2007-March 2008
- Black households more likely to use shelf-stable meals on weekends
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- Figure 47: Meal occasions for shelf-stable meals, by race/Hispanic origin, June/July 2008
- Hispanic children more likely to view shelf-stable meals as a treat
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- Figure 48: Children’s attitudes towards and consumption of shelf-stable meals, by race/Hispanic origin of parent, June/July 2008
- Hispanic consumers want more from their shelf-stable meals
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- Figure 49: Consumer interest in new shelf-stable meal options, by race/Hispanic origin, June/July 2008
Custom Consumer Groups
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- Key point
- Older Hispanic consumers appear more partial to pasta meals
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- Figure 50: Types of complete packaged dinner mixes eaten—Hispanics, by age, February 2007-March 2008
- Occasions for which Hispanic respondents eat shelf-stable meals vary by age
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- Figure 51: Meal occasions for shelf-stable meals—Hispanics, by age, June/July 2008
- Healthy means different things to different people
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- Figure 52: Consumer interest in new shelf-stable meal options—Hispanics, by age, June/July 2008
Cluster Analysis
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- Grudge purchasers
- Diehard purchasers
- Guilty pleasure purchasers
- Cluster characteristics
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- Figure 53: Shelf-stable meal consumer clusters, June/July 2008
- Figure 54: Number of shelf-stable meals eaten in household per month, by cluster, June/July 2008
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- Figure 55: Meal occasions for shelf-stable meal consumption, by cluster, June/July 2008
- Figure 56: Consumer interest in new shelf-stable meal varieties, by cluster, June/July 2008
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- Figure 57: Attitudes and behavior toward shelf-stable meals, by cluster, June/July 2008
- Figure 58: Consumer attitudes about cooking and health, by cluster, June/July 2008
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- Figure 59: Consumer attitudes about shopping and price, by cluster, June/July 2008
- Cluster demographics
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- Figure 60: Shelf-stable meal clusters, by gender, June/July 2008
- Figure 61: Shelf-stable meal clusters, by age, June/July 2008
- Figure 62: Shelf-stable meal clusters, by household income, June/July 2008
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- Figure 63: Shelf-stable meal clusters, by race, June/July 2008
- Figure 64: Shelf-stable meal clusters, by Hispanic origin, June/July 2008
- Methodology
IRI/Builders Panel Data—Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Consumer insights—shelf-stable meals
- Dry packaged dinners
- Dry salad/side dish mixes
- Brand leaders by penetration
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- Figure 65: Key purchase measures for the top dry salad/side dish mixes brands, by household penetration*, 2007
- Dry macaroni & cheese mixes
- Brand leaders by penetration
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- Figure 66: Key purchase measures for the top dry macaroni & cheese brands, by household penetration*, 2007
- Dry macaroni & cheese mixes brand map
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- Figure 67: Dry macaroni and cheese mixes brand map, 2007*
- Dry dinner mixes (add meat)
- Brand leaders by penetration
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- Figure 68: Key purchase measures for the top dry dinner mixes (add meat) brands, by household penetration*, 2007
- Shelf-stable dinners
- Shelf-stable prepared pasta dishes
- Brand leaders by penetration
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- Figure 69: Key purchase measures for top shelf-stable prepared pasta dish brands, by household penetration*, 2007
- Prepared pasta dishes brand map
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- Figure 70: Prepared pasta dishes brand map, 2007*
- Shelf-stable prepared chili
- Brand leaders by penetration
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- Figure 71: Key purchase measures for the top ss prepared chili brands, by household penetration*, 2007
- Shelf-stable microwaveable packaged dinner
- Brand leaders by penetration
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- Figure 72: Key purchase measures for the top shelf-stable microwaveable package dinner brands, by household penetration*, 2007
- Microwaveable packaged dinners brand map
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- Figure 73: Microwaveable packaged dinners brand map, 2007*
Appendix: IRI/Builders Panel Data Definitions
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- IRI Consumer Network Metrics
Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Household penetration of shelf-stable meals
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- Figure 74: Household consumption of selected shelf-stable meals, by household income, February 2007-March 2008
- Number of shelf-stable meals eaten in last 30 days
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- Figure 75: Number of packaged dinner mixes used by household in last 30 days, February 2007-March 2008
- Brand preferences
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- Figure 76: Brand preferences for shelf-to-microwave dinners, February 2007-March 2008
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- Figure 77: Brand preferences for can and jar spaghetti and macaroni, February 2007-March 2008
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- Figure 78: Brand preferences for complete packaged dinner mixes, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2007-March 2008
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- Figure 79: Brand preferences for canned/jar spaghetti and macaroni, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2007-March 2008
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- Figure 80: Brand preferences for shelf-to-microwave meals, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2007-March 2008
- How and when shelf-stable meals are eaten
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- Figure 81: Meal occasions for shelf-stable meals, by gender, June/July 2008
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- Figure 82: Meal occasions for shelf-stable meals, by household income, June/July 2008
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- Figure 83: Meal occasions for shelf-stable meals, by household size, June/July 2008
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- Figure 84: Meal occasions for shelf-stable meals, by region, June/July 2008
- Consumer interest in shelf-stable meal options
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- Figure 85: Consumer interest in new shelf-stable meal options, by gender, June/July 2008
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- Figure 86: Consumer interest in new shelf-stable meal options, by presence of children in household, June/July 2008
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- Figure 87: Consumer interest in new shelf-stable meal options, by region, June/July 2008
- Consumer attitudes about cooking and health
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- Figure 88: Consumer attitudes about cooking and health, by gender, June/July 2008
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- Figure 89: Consumer attitudes about cooking and health, by household income, June/July 2008
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- Figure 90: Consumer attitudes about cooking and health, by household size, June/July 2008
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- Figure 91: Consumer attitudes about cooking and health, by region, June/July 2008
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- Figure 92: Consumer attitudes about cooking and health, by race/Hispanic origin, June/July 2008
- Attitudes about shopping and price
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- Figure 93: Consumer attitudes about shopping and price, by gender, June/July 2008
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- Figure 94: Consumer attitudes about shopping and price, by age, June/July 2008
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- Figure 95: Consumer attitudes about shopping and price, by presence of children in household, June/July 2008
Appendix: Trade Associations
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