Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- In a nutshell
- Difficult environment for foodservice
- Family restaurants in unenviable position
- Competitive pressure from home cooking and QSR breakfast
- Competition from home-cooked meals heats up
- Family restaurants innovate in the face of breakfast competition
- Price points may help make the difference
- Demographic initiatives
- Winning over Echo Boomers: a growth imperative
- Courting minority groups also key—but threading the needle is difficult
- Denny’s, IHOP and Cracker Barrel sales leaders
- Aggregate usage of top players on the decline
- Restaurant Analyses in Brief
- Denny’s
- IHOP
- Cracker Barrel
- Bob Evans Farms
- “Important” restaurant attributes
- Dinner a usage winner
- Weekend breakfasts, big breakfast a draw; more fruit for the ladies
- The delivery/curbside/internet ordering picture
- Delivery a draw for households with children, ethnic groups
- A quarter have tried curbside pickup—families with small kids a target
- Internet/online ordering has not taken hold; youth drives use
Insights and Opportunities
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- Key points
- Loyalty cards for kids and seniors
- Grocery store co-branding could strengthen brand identity
- Family dining subscription service could spur delivery and loyalty
- Themed buffets to spur visits and menu innovation
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- Figure 1: Regional claims for foods served in family restaurant 2006-07
- Co-branded beverages may win back breakfast dollars
- Boost guest traffic with quicker table turns
Fast Forward Trends
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- Premiumization and Indulgence
- What's it about?
- Trading up, trading down, trading over
- Indulging on a budget
- Hyper-parenting: who's controlling whom?
- What we've seen
- Who schedules the family dining decision?
- But who has the choice here?
- How loyalty programs can give parents—or kids—the upper hand
Market Size
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- Figure 2: Total U.S. system wide sales of family restaurants, at current and inflation adjusted prices, 2005-07
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Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Competition from home-cooked meals heats up
- Family restaurants innovate in face of breakfast competition
- Price points may help make the difference
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- Figure 3: Selected family restaurants, average price per entrée, Q1 2007 vs. Q1 2008
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Restaurant industry in recession
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- Figure 4: Restaurant Performance Index: All-items, current situation, and expectations, January 2006-June 2008*
- Family restaurants in unenviable economic position
- The cause: consumers under pressure
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- Figure 5: Consumer Price Index, key consumer items, January 2006-June 2008*
- The result: discretionary income under attack; lower- and middle-income families hit
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- Figure 6: Percentage of income spent on key consumer expenditures, by HH income quintile, 2006*
- Bad news for family restaurants
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- Figure 7: Usage and mean use of family and quick-service restaurants, by HH income, 2007
- Rising farm products costs pressure foodservice margins
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- Figure 8: Producer Price Index, key farm products, January 2004-June 2008
- Winning over Echo Boomers: a growth imperative
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- Figure 9: Usage and mean use of family and quick-service restaurants, by HH income, 2007
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- Figure 10: Generations, 2003-13
- Courting minority groups also key—but threading the needle is difficult
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- Figure 11: Usage of family restaurants, by race
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- Figure 12: Interest in Mexican and Asian food at a family restaurant, by race/ethnicity, June 2008
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- Figure 13: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2003-13
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Slow growth translates to fall guest counts
- Breakfast strength, new breakfast initiatives may help sustain the category
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- Figure 14: U.S. systemwide sales for the top 15 family chains, 2005 and 2007
- Unit growth at a standstill
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- Figure 15: U.S. systemwide units for the top 15 family chains, 2005 and 2007
Restaurant Analysis: Denny’s
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- Key points
- Brand differentiator: “real breakfast”
- Health initiatives
- Growth trajectory: neutral
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- Figure 16: Denny’s guest check and guest count percentage change, 2005-07
- Wooing important demographics
- The demographic connection
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- Figure 17: Denny’s demographic profile, 2007
Restaurant Analysis: IHOP
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- Key points
- Brand differentiator: indulgence at the breakfast table
- On the health front: balance, if you want it
- More fruit on the menu
- Ethnic menu opportunity
- A convenience twist
- Growth trajectory: positive
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- Figure 18: IHOP system-wide same-store sales, percentage increase, 2005-08
- The demographic connection
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- Figure 19: IHOP demographic profile, 2007
Restaurant Analysis: Cracker Barrel
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- Key points
- Brand differentiator: leveraging the “front porch”
- Moving off the highway
- On the menu: old-school, traditional fare
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- Figure 20: Cracker Barrel, percentage of sales by day part, 2007
- Health moves
- Growth trajectory: neutral
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- Figure 21: Cracker Barrel system-wide same-store sales, percentage increase, 2005-08
- The demographic connection
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- Figure 22: Cracker Barrel demographic profile, 2007
Restaurant Analysis: Golden Corral
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- Key points
- Brand differentiator: buffet, buffet, buffet
- Menu and service moves
- Growth trajectory: positive
- The demographic connection
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- Figure 23: Golden corral demographic profile, 2007
Restaurant Analysis: Bob Evans Farms
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- Key points
- Brand differentiator: retail opportunity
- Menu movement
- Carry out business gains traction; weekend business important
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- Figure 24: Bob Evans Farms, percentage of sales by day part, 2007
- Growth trajectory: neutral
- The demographic connection
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- Figure 25: Bob Evans demographic profile, 2007
Restaurant Analysis: Buffets Holdings, Inc
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- Key points
- Brand differentiator: large groups
- What’s on the menu
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- Figure 26: Buffet Holdings average guest check, by restaurant brand, 2006-07
- Growth trajectory: negative
- The demographic connection
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- Figure 27: Hometown Buffet & Old Country Buffet demographic profile, 2007
Brand Qualities Case Study: Denny’s
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- Key points
- Denny’s differentiates the brand
- Attracting Hispanics with Spanish-language website and advertising
- Meeting needs of the convenience user: Fresh Express and Good to Go
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- Figure 28: Interest in trying delivery from family restaurant, June 2008
- Catering to late night diners
- The youth connection
- The Hispanic connection
Innovation and Innovators
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- Key point
- Developing non-traditional outlets
- Marketing claims
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- Figure 29: Top 10 marketing claims, family restaurants, Q4 2006-Q1 2008
- Ethnic entrees gaining traction
Advertising and Promotion
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- IHOP limited-time-offer entrees
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- Figure 30: IHOP: Fruit Crepe Fever, 2007
- Man Gets Speeding Ticket/Discover America Pancakes, 2008
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- Figure 31: IHOP: Man Gets Speeding Ticket/Shortcake Pancakes, 2008
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- Figure 32: IHOP: Discover America Pancakes – Mount Rushmore, 2008
- Denny’s Fights Back
- Denny’s-Police Line Up, 2008
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- Figure 33: Denny’s-Police Line Up, 2008
- Denny’s: Build Your Own Grand Slam/New Denny's Dome, 2008
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- Figure 34: Denny’s-Build Your Own Grand Slam/New Denny's Dome, 2008
- Denny’s: Family Fall In Love with Breakfast Again, 2007
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- Figure 35: Denny’s-Family Fall In Love With Breakfast Again, 2007
- Denny’s: Bull Mascot Wakes Up/All Nighter Menu To Go, 2008
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- Figure 36: Denny’s Bull Mascot Wakes Up/All Nighter Menu To Go, 2008
- Other players
- Cracker Barrel: more than just a travel stop
- Famous Dave’s: limited time BBQ
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- Figure 37: Famous Dave’s BBQ Tour Platter – Man Puts On Accents, 2008
- Old Country Buffet
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- Figure 38: Old Country Buffet Kids Eat For $1.99, 2008
Family Restaurant Usage
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- A cloudy demographic picture; a cautionary forecast
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- Figure 39: Usage of family restaurants, by key demographics, 2006-07
Usage and Mean Usage of Family Restaurants by Type
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- Aggregate usage of top players on the decline
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- Figure 40: Usage of “top 6” family restaurants, 2000-07
- IHOP, Denny’s top preferences; Golden Corral a frequency standout
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- Figure 41: Family restaurant usage and mean use in past 30 days, 2007
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- Figure 42: Family restaurant usage, by race/ethnicity, 2007
Family Usage by Daypart
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- Dinner a usage winner
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- Figure 43: Family meals eaten for breakfast, lunch and dinner, by age, June 2008
Family Breakfast Preferences
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- Weekend breakfasts, big breakfast a draw; more fruit for female diners
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- Figure 44: Family restaurant preferences, by gender, June 2008
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- Figure 45: Family restaurant preferences, by age, June 2008
Interest in Ordering Formats and Ethnic Foods
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- Key points
- Delivery a draw for households with children, ethnic groups
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- Figure 46: Interest in trying delivery from family restaurant, by key demographics, June 2008
- A quarter have tried curbside pickup—families with small kids a target
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- Figure 47: Interest in trying curbside pickup from family restaurant, by key demographics, June 2008
- Internet/online ordering has not taken hold; youth drives use
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- Figure 48: Interest in trying internet/online ordering from family restaurant, by key demographics, June 2008
- Interest in Mexican and Asian food—a mixed bag
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- Figure 49: Interest in Mexican and Asian food at a family restaurant, by key demographics, June 2008
Food and Restaurant Attribute Analysis
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- Key points
- A food attribute no-brainer: taste, quality, and freshness reign
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- Figure 50: Important food attributes when selecting a family restaurant, by gender, June 2008
- Food offerings: variety trumps specific selections
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- Figure 51: Important food offerings when selecting a family restaurant, by age, June 2008
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- Figure 52: Important food offerings when selecting a family restaurant, by race/ethnicity, June 2008
- Value important, then convenience, then . . . brand—with a parental caveat
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- Figure 53: Important restaurant qualities when selecting a familt restaurant, by region, June 2008
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- Figure 54: Important restaurant qualities when selecting a family restaurant, by presence of children, June 2008
Custom Focus: Urban, Suburban, and Rural Consumers
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- Decreased restaurant spend may have pronounced effect on restaurants in rural areas
- Chicken and fish use on the rise, more so in urban and suburban areas
- Food knowledge important to 20%, across areas
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- Figure 55: General attitudes toward food and diet, urban/suburban/rural, May 2008
- Beverage innovation can be uniquely leveraged
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- Figure 56: Comparative attitudes toward spending, food types, and health, urban/suburban/rural, May 2008
- Snacking and family restaurants is a hard needle to thread
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- Figure 57: Snacking behavior, meal customization, and online nutrition searching, urban/suburban/rural, May 2008
- Urban areas more receptive to ethnic food choices
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- Figure 58: Important family restaurant selection factors, urban/suburban/rural, May 2008
Custom Focus: Family Restaurant Brand Usage and Attitudes
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- Figure 59: Family restaurant brand usage, by general attitudes toward food and diet, May 2008
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Cluster Analysis
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- Disinterested, change resistors
- Ethnic experimenters
- Who they are
- Family neutrals
- Opportunity
- Who they are
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- Figure 60: Family restaurant user clusters, June 2008
- Figure 61: Thinking about your attitudes in general toward food and dining out, which of the following statements do you agree with? by family restaurant user clusters, June 2008
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- Figure 62: Thinking about beverages both at home and away from home, which of the following do you agree with? by family restaurant user clusters, June 2008
- Figure 63: Please indicate whether agree with any of the following statements by family restaurant user clusters, June 2008
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- Figure 64: Please indicate which of the following meals you have eaten at a family restaurant in the past three months by family restaurant user clusters, June 2008
- Figure 65: Which one of the following options have you tried at a family restaurant or would be interested in trying at a family restaurant? by family restaurant user clusters, June 2008
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- Figure 66: Please rate each of the following items in terms of their importance in selecting a family restaurant by family restaurant user clusters, June 2008
- Cluster demographics
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- Figure 67: Family restaurant user clusters by gender, June 2008
- Figure 68: Family restaurant user clusters by age group, June 2008
- Figure 69: Family restaurant user clusters by income group, June 2008
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- Figure 70: Family restaurant user clusters by race, June 2008
- Figure 71: Family restaurant user clusters by Hispanic origin, June 2008
Appendix: Additional Consumer Tables
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- Figure 72: Family restaurant usage, by age, 2007
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- Figure 73: Family restaurant usage, by HH income, 2007
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Appendix: Simmons Cohort Analysis
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- Figure 74: Married couples cohorts
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- Figure 75: Single women cohorts
- Figure 76: Single men cohorts
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Appendix: Trade Associations
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