Table of Contents
Introduction and Abbreviations
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- Definitions
- Consumer research
- ACORN
- Advertising data
- Abbreviations
Premier Insight
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- Jumping on board the health bandwagon
- Target Internet shoppers
- Early summer is a good time to promote speciality bread
- Men respond most favourably to ethnic specialities
- Craft bakers need to regain their status
Executive Summary
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- Changing eating habits reduce consumption but add value to the market
- Reaffirming the role of bread in a healthy lifestyle
- Plant bakeries strengthen their hold on the market
- Continental and speciality are the dynamic forces
- Premium sliced leave the rest behind
- Ethnic, tortillas and wraps enjoy the greatest growth
- Allied Bakeries and British Bakeries dominate above-the-line spend
- Distribution dominated by the retail multiples
- Four in five shoppers buy speciality or continental bread
- Growth in speciality bread sector will drive market forward
Market Drivers
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- Refocusing the role of bread in diet and wellbeing
- Trading up…but for how long?
- The impact of fluctuations in wheat prices
- Changing eating habits – mixed consequences for the bread market
- Wider availability of speciality breads
- The growth in the sandwich market
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- Figure 1: Sales of sandwiches*, at current and constant 1998 prices, 1998-2003
- Competition at the breakfast table
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- Figure 2: UK retail sales of cereal bars, by value, 1999-2004
- High levels of consumer spending boost demand for premium breads
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- Figure 3: Trends and projections in PDI and consumer expenditure, at current and constant 1999 prices, 1999-2009
- ABC1s to remain reliable target for the next five years
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- Figure 4: UK adult population, by socio-economic group, 1998-2009
- Low unemployment levels make convenience affordable
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- Figure 5: Workforce in employment in the UK, by gender and employment status, 1998-2009
- Traditional target market is shrinking
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- Figure 6: Household consumption of bread, by age group, 2004
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- Figure 7: Trends and projections in the UK population, by age group, 1999-2004 and 2004-09
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- Figure 8: The fastest-growing and -declining five-year population segments, 2003-08
- Growth in one-person households predicted
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- Figure 9: Changing structure of UK households, 1998-2003 and 2003-08
Market Size and Trends
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- Volumes in decline
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- Figure 10: UK retail sales of bread, by volume, 1999-2004
- Trade associations take the moral stance, can manufacturers afford to?
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- Figure 11: UK retail sales of bread, by value, 1999-2004
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- Figure 12: Average bread price per kilo, 1999-2004
- Bread capitalises on functional trends
- Other developments in bread products, which offer added health benefits, include bread with low carbohydrate content, reduced salt, reduced fat and gluten-free; added oestrogen, folic acid and omega-3 fatty acids.
- Plant bakers consolidate market share
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- Figure 13: UK retail volume sales of bread, by source, 2000-04
- ‘Freshly baked’ gives added-value perception
- High street diversifies
Market Segmentation
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- Figure 14: Interim growth trends in bread, by volume and value, 2002-04
- Growth in speciality not enough to stem decline
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- Figure 15: UK retail volume sales of bread, by type, 2000-04
- Encouraging value growth in all sectors
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- Figure 16: UK retail value sales of bread, by type, 2000-04
- Standard white sliced volumes lose out to premium
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- Figure 17: UK retail volume sales of white bread, by type, 2000-04
- Premium white storms ahead
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- Figure 18: UK retail value sales of white bread, by type, 2000-04
- Brown and wholemeal reflect erratic consumer buying behaviour
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- Figure 19: Growth in retail volume and value sales of brown/wholemeal bread, by type, 2000-02 and 2002-04
- French stick and garlic bread most popular speciality breads
- Speciality breads boost sales for plant bakers
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- Figure 20: UK retail value sales of plant bread, by type, 2000-04
- Plant bakers contribute over two thirds of retail speciality sales
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- Figure 21: UK retail value sales of plant-produced continental and speciality bread, by type, 2000-04
- Garlic bread rejuvenates and thrives
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The Supply Structure
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- The biggest grow bigger
- High street bakers forced to diversify to survive
- Media ‘celebrities’ raise the profile of bakers
- In-store bakers focus on availability
- Baking on the go
- Investment from leading brands pays off
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- Figure 22: Brand shares of plant bread, by value, 2004
- Figure 23: Brand shares of plant bread, by value, 2002 and 2004
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- Figure 24: Usage of branded and own-label bread, 2004
- Companies and brands
- Allied Bakeries
- British Bakeries
- Warburtons
- Other players
- Ethnic bread
- Functional foods
- Organics
- Own-label
Innovation in the Bread Category
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- Figure 25: New product launches, by brand, June-Dec 2004
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- Figure 26: Examples of on-pack positioning claims, June-Dec 2004
- Figure 27: New product launches, by type, June-December 2004
- New product briefs
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Advertising and Promotion
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- Adspend peaks in 2004
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- Figure 28: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on bread and bakeries*, 1999-2004
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- Figure 29: Leading brand spend on main media advertising, bread and bakeries, 2001-04
- Figure 30: Breakdown of media spend, by above-the-line medium, 2004
- The King tops adspend in 2003
- Bread is for breakfast with the Hovis family
- Warburtons backs National Bread Week
- Below-the-line promotions focus on value
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- Figure 31: Selected below-the-line bread promotions, July 2004-January 2005
Distribution
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- Figure 32: UK retail value sales of bread, by type of outlet, 2000-04
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The Consumer
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- Shift towards less frequent usage of bread
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- Figure 33: Use of bread, by frequency, 2002-04
- White still by far the preferred bread type
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- Figure 34: Type of bread eaten, 2002-04
- White bread consumption biased towards younger adults and families
- Brown bread favoured by healthy eating ABs and women
- Appreciation of good food amongst consumers
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- Figure 35: Agreement with lifestyle statements on diet and food, 2001-04
- Is there life beyond garlic bread?
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- Figure 36: Types of continental or speciality bread purchased in the last three months, 2000-04
- Men prefer ethnic, while women have more traditional tastes
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- Figure 37: Speciality bread preferences, by gender, October 2004
- Affluent family groups are key purchasers of speciality breads
- Ethnic bread appeals across the socio-economic spectrum
- Third agers have appetite for ciabatta and flavoured breads
- Room for development with focaccia
- Detailed demographics
- All bread by frequency of use
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- Figure 38: Use of bread, by frequency, by gender, age, socio-economic group, presence of children, marital status, working status, household size, region, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, 2004
- White bread by frequency of use
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- Figure 39: Use of white bread, by frequency, by gender, age, socio-economic group, presence of children, marital status, working status, household size, region, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, 2004
- Brown bread by frequency of use
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- Figure 40: Use of brown bread, by frequency, by gender, age, socio-economic group, presence of children, marital status, working status, household size, region, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, 2004
- Continental and speciality breads by type
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- Figure 41: Purchasing of popular types of continental and speciality breads, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, Mintel’s Special Groups, region, marital status and working status, October 2004
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- Figure 42: Purchasing of popular types of continental and speciality breads, by ACORN categories, media usage, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, October 2004
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- Figure 43: Purchasing of ciabatta, flavoured bread and part-baked/bake-at-home breads, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, Mintel’s Special Groups, region, marital status and working status, October 2004
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- Figure 44: Purchasing of ciabatta, flavoured bread and part-baked/bake-at-home breads, by ACORN categories, media usage, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, October 2004
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- Figure 45: Purchasing of focaccia, organic bread and chapatti, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, Mintel’s Special Groups, region, household size, marital status and working status, October 2004
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- Figure 46: Purchasing of chapatti, focaccia and organic bread, by ACORN categories, media usage, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, October 2004
The Consumer – Attitudes and Motivations
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- Figure 47: Attitudes towards bread and bakery products, October 2004
- Freshly baked versus ready-wrapped
- One in ten will shop elsewhere to buy a favourite brand
- Men and women agree on one thing: premium own-label
- Breads are chosen with a purpose in mind
- Brand-loyal best targeted through popular tabloid press
- 25-34s will try anything new
- Well-known brands and special offers are important to families
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- Figure 48: Family attitudes towards purchasing bread and bakery products, October 2004
- How purchasing attitudes vary by choice of speciality bread product
- Brand issues
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- Figure 49: Branding issues vs continental and speciality bread purchasing preferences, October 2004
- Availability and product types
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- Figure 50: Freshness and product vs continental and speciality bread purchasing preferences, October 2004
- Pricing issues
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- Figure 51: Pricing and purchasing vs continental and speciality bread preferences, October 2004
- Assessing consumer target groups
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- Figure 52: Typologies of consumers with regard to bread, October 2004
- Assessing enthusiasm
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- Figure 53: Types of speciality bread purchased in the last three months, October 2004
- Bread Foodies have the biggest repertoire
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- Figure 54: Consumer typologies, by number of bread types purchased in the last three months, October 2004
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- Figure 55: Choice of speciality bread, by number of bread types purchased in the last three months, October 2004
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- Figure 56: Choice of supermarket, by number of bread types purchased in the last three months, October 2004
- Correlation analysis
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- Figure 57: Similarities between speciality bread preference and choice of supermarket, October 2004
- Detailed Demographics
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- Figure 58: Most popularly cited attitudes towards bread and bakery products, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, Mintel’s Special Groups, region, household size, marital status, working status and presence of children, October 2004
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- Figure 59: Most popularly cited attitudes towards bread and bakery products, by ACORN categories, media usage, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, October 2004
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- Figure 60: Other popular attitudes towards use of bread and bakery products, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, Mintel’s Special Groups, region, household size, marital status, working status and presence of children, October 2004
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- Figure 61: Other popular attitudes towards use of bread and bakery products, by ACORN categories, media usage, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, October 2004
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- Figure 62: Attitudes towards variety, pricing and healthy-eating bread types, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, Mintel’s Special Groups, region, household size, marital status, working status and presence of children, October 2004
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- Figure 63: Attitudes towards variety, pricing and healthy-eating bread types, by ACORN categories, media usage, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, October 2004
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- Figure 64: Attitudes towards favourite brand availability, availability of fresh produce in evening and on-pack promotions, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, Mintel’s Special Groups, region, household size, marital status, working status
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- Figure 65: Attitudes towards favourite brand availability, availability of fresh produce in evening and on-pack promotions, by ACORN categories, media usage, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, October 2004
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- Figure 66: Consumer typologies, by gender, age, socio-economic group, ACORN categories, lifestage, region, presence of children, Mintel's Special Groups, media usage, supermarket usage and commercial TV viewing, October 2004
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- Figure 67: Number of types of speciality bread purchased, by gender, age, socio-economic group, ACORN categories, lifestage, region, presence of children, Mintel’s Special Groups, media usage, supermarket usage and commercial TV viewing, October 2004
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The Future
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- Premium, super-premium and Über-premium?
- Healthy eating is just a fad
- Facing up to the grey challenge
Forecast
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- Figure 68: Forecast of the bread market, at current and constant prices, 2004-09
- Figure 69: Forecast of the market for bread, by sector, by value, 2004-09
- Value-added products add interest to the market
- Growth in speciality bread sector will drive market forward
- Wholemeal, granary and brown will benefit from healthy eating trends
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- Figure 70: Forecast of the market for bread, by volume, 2004-09
- Factors used in the forecast
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