Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on the UK travel market
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- Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the UK travel market, 25 June 2021
- Domestic market benefits from slow opening up of international travel, but Delta variant poses threat
- Value of the domestic market still expected to recover in 2021
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- Figure 2: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the value of domestic holidays taken by British residents, 2016-26
- High levels of uncertainty about the lifting of international travel restrictions remain
- Cautious optimism for later in the summer
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- Figure 3: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the value* of overseas holidays taken by UK residents, 2016-26
- Companies and brands
- Further investments in personalisation
- More brands are tapping into blurring lines between work and leisure
- Family travel-oriented tech start-up, tripAbrood, gets additional funding
- Above-the-line spend by travel and transport providers more than halved in 2020
- Expedia invests heavily in new brand proposition
- The consumer
- Initial enthusiasm about travelling overseas in 2021 has subsided
- Demand to take main holiday in UK exceeds pre-COVID-19 levels
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- Figure 4: Main holidaying intentions by destination, 2021
- High demand for rural escapes and self-drive itineraries in the UK
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- Figure 5: Participation and future ‘main holidaying’ intentions in the UK, by holiday type, 2020 vs 2021
- Beach holidays and luxury travel in high demand among overseas travellers
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- Figure 6: Participation and future ‘main holidaying’ intentions abroad, by holiday type, 2020 vs 2021
- Customer reviews and price comparison websites play a crucial role in the research process
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- Figure 7: Usage of information sources when researching a holiday, by age, 2021
- Increased interest among older generation to book online
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- Figure 8: Booking channel for main holiday, 2021
- There continues to be demand for travel expertise
- Flexible cancellation and rebooking policies continue to be important amid COVID-19 uncertainty
- Cover for COVID-related risks a must for many travellers
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- Figure 9: Factors influencing choice of travel company, by destination, 2021
- Majority of travellers would like to see entry requirements integrated in search technology
- High desire to filter out destinations that require self-isolation upon arrival or return
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- Figure 10: Further interest in filtering search results by entry requirements, 2021
- Costs of testing measures a big concern for families
Issues and Insights
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- More and more companies are looking to take a larger piece of the experiences sector
- Increased focus on personalisation
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Domestic market benefits from slow opening up of international travel, but Delta variant poses threat
- Value of the domestic market still expected to recover in 2021
- High levels of uncertainty about the lifting of international travel restrictions remain
- Cautious optimism for later in the summer
Market Size and Performance
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- Slow opening up of international travel has made staycations a more favourable option in 2021
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- Figure 11: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the UK travel market, 25 June 2021
- COVID-19 hits after holiday market reaches record heights
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- Figure 12: Volume and value* of domestic holidays taken by British residents, 2015-20
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- Figure 13: Volume and value* of overseas holidays taken by UK residents, 2015-20
Market Forecast
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- Domestic market benefits from slow opening up of international travel, but Delta variant poses threat
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- Figure 14: Forecast volume of domestic holidays taken by British residents (prepared on 25 June 2021), 2016-26*
- Figure 15: Forecast value* of domestic holidays taken by British residents, at current prices, (prepared on 25 June 2021), 2016-26
- High levels of uncertainty about the lifting of international travel restrictions remain
- Cautious optimism for later in the summer
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- Figure 16: Forecast volume of overseas holidays taken by UK residents (prepared on 25 June 2021), 2016-26*
- …but an increase in average prices will mitigate some of the damage
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- Figure 17: Forecast value* of overseas holidays taken by UK residents at current prices (prepared on 25 June 2021), 2016-26**
- Longer-term prospects remain positive
COVID-19 Scenario Performance
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- Mintel’s approach to predicting the impact of COVID-19
- Fundamental differences in how COVID-19 is affecting consumer markets
- A rapid COVID recovery will have less impact on the recovery of domestic travel
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- Figure 18: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the value of domestic holidays taken by British residents, 2016-26
- Extended COVID disruption will be disastrous for international travel
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- Figure 19: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the value* of overseas holidays taken by UK residents, 2016-26
- COVID-19 market disruption: risks and outcomes
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- Figure 20: Summary of Mintel scenario expectations and the impact on the holidays market, June 2021
Market Drivers
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- Financial confidence continues to grow
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- Figure 21: The financial confidence index, January 2015-June 2021
- Travel industry in shock after first traffic light list review in early June
- Government expands green list during the second update in late June
- High levels of uncertainty remain, despite green list expansion…
- …but planned exemption of vaccinated travellers from quarantine provides optimism
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- Figure 22: Traffic light system for international travel, 21 May 2021
- Delta variant causes delay to the last stage on the roadmap out of lockdown
- Destinations respond differently to the UK’s rise in COVID-19 cases
- UK government launched Tourism Recovery Plan
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- COVID-19 created the opportunity to redesign the customer experience
- More brands are tapping into blurring lines between work and leisure
- Family travel-oriented tech start-up, tripAbrood, gets additional funding
- Above-the-line spend by travel and transport providers more than halved in 2020
- Expedia invests heavily in new brand proposition
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Safety and flexibility information has become an integral part of the planning and booking process
- Increasing number of brands offer insurance products
- Further investments in personalisation
- Airbnb enhanced flexibility of its planning and booking process and added new filters
- easyJet Holidays uses AI to show more relevant and engaging recommendations
- More brands are tapping into blurring lines between work and leisure
- Mitsui Fudosan Hotel Management allows stays in any of 35 selected hotels for a fixed monthly fee
- Marriott opens serviced apartments to tap into longer stay trend
- COVID-19 has accelerated digital innovation
- Family travel-oriented tech start-up, tripAbrood, gets additional funding
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Above-the-line spend by travel and transport providers more than halved in 2020
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- Figure 23: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on ads by travel and transport providers, 2016-20
- Expedia invests heavily in new brand proposition
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- Figure 24: Top 15 above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on ads by travel and transport providers, 2020
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 25: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, March 2021
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 26: Key metrics for selected brands, March 2021
- Brand attitudes: easyJet holidays closely associated with offering good value
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- Figure 27: Attitudes, by brand, March 2021
- Brand personality: TripAdvisor most associated with being ethical
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- Figure 28: Brand personality – Macro image, March 2021
- TUI perceived as a caring and welcoming brand but some find it overpriced
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- Figure 29: Brand personality – Micro image, March 2021
- Brand analysis
- TripAdvisor front runner in usage, awareness and recommendation levels
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- Figure 30: User profile of TripAdvisor, March 2021
- Booking.com has a high share of committed users
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- Figure 31: User profile of Booking.com, March 2021
- Expedia aims to become a trusted travel companion
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- Figure 32: User profile of Expedia, March 2021
- TUI still most strongly associated with good reputation, despite lower score
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- Figure 33: User profile of TUI, March 2021
- Jet2holidays continues to impress customers despite pandemic
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- Figure 34: User profile of Jet2holidays, March 2021
- easyJet holidays has high growth potential
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- Figure 35: User profile of easyJet holidays, March 2021
- On the Beach has a relatively young user profile
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- Figure 36: User profile of On the Beach, March 2021
- Reading word clouds
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Demand to take main holiday in UK exceeds pre-COVID-19 levels…
- …while the initial enthusiasm about travelling overseas has subsided
- Reassurance and simplicity key in the holiday planning and booking process
- Customer reviews and price comparison websites play crucial role in research process
- Share of online bookings expected to increase further
- There continues to be demand for travel expertise
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- Appetite to book holidays declined in June 2021
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- Figure 37: Actual bookings and plans to book a holiday in the next three months, 2019-21
- Exposure anxiety has not increased despite rise in COVID-19 cases
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- Figure 38: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety and lifestyle impact index, 28 February 2020-18 June 2021
- Travel bans have raised awareness of the impact on the environment
- New working patterns facilitate growth in pet ownership
Holiday Destination
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- Initial enthusiasm about travelling overseas in 2021 has subsided
- Younger generations remain most open to travelling overseas
- Winter (sun) holidays could prove more popular
- The long-term outlook for overseas travel remains positive
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- Figure 39: Main holidaying intentions by destination, 2021
- Demand to take main holiday in UK exceeds pre-COVID-19 levels
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- Figure 40: Main holidaying intentions by destination and age, 2021
Holiday Type
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- High demand for rural escapes…
- …and self-drive itineraries in the UK
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- Figure 41: Participation and future ‘main holidaying’ intentions in the UK, by holiday type, 2020 vs 2021
- Beach holidays and luxury travel in high demand among overseas travellers
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- Figure 42: Participation and future ‘main holidaying’ intentions abroad, by holiday type, 2020 vs 2021
Research Sources
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- Customer reviews and price comparison websites play a crucial role in the research process
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- Figure 43: Usage of information sources when researching a holiday, by age, 2021
- Majority of 16-44 year olds watch online videos of a destination or accommodation before booking
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- Figure 44: Use of online video content before booking, by demographics, 2021
Holiday Booking Channels
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- Increased interest among older generation to book online
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- Figure 45: Booking channel for main holiday, 2021
- Share of bookings via smartphone is likely to continue to grow
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- Figure 46: Booking channel for main holiday, by age, 2021
- There continues to be demand for travel expertise
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- Figure 47: Booking channel for main holiday, by holiday type, 2021
Purchase Drivers when Choosing a Travel Company
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- Flexible cancellation and rebooking policies continue to be important amid COVID-19 uncertainty
- Cover for COVID-related risks a must for many travellers
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- Figure 48: Factors influencing choice of travel company, by destination, 2021
- Over-55s more risk-averse but tend to be loyal customers
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- Figure 49: Factors influencing choice of travel company, by age, 2021
- The role of the environment in the holiday planning and booking process
Attitudes towards Entry Requirements
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- Majority of travellers would like to see entry requirements integrated in search technology
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- Figure 50: Interest in filtering search results by entry requirements, 2021
- High desire to filter out destinations that require self-isolation upon arrival or return
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- Figure 51: Further interest in filtering search results by entry requirements, 2021
- Costs of testing measures a big concern for families
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- Figure 52: Attitudes towards cost of COVID-19 tests, by demographics, 2021
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Central Forecast Methodology
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- Volume forecast and prediction intervals for total holidays
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- Figure 53: Lower bound, central and upper bound forecast for the total volume of total holidays (domestic* and overseas) taken by UK residents, 2020-26
- Value forecast and prediction intervals for total holidays
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- Figure 54: Lower bound, central and upper bound forecast for the value* of total holidays (domestic** and overseas) taken by UK residents, 2020-26
- Volume forecast and prediction intervals for domestic holidays
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- Figure 55: Lower bound, central and upper bound forecast for the volume of domestic holidays taken by British residents, 2020-26
- Value forecast and prediction intervals for domestic holidays
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- Figure 56: Lower bound, central and upper bound forecast for the value of domestic holidays taken by British residents, 2020-26
- Volume forecast and prediction intervals for overseas holidays
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- Figure 57: Lower bound, central and upper bound forecast for the volume of overseas holidays taken by UK residents, 2020-26
- Value forecast and prediction intervals for overseas holidays
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- Figure 58: Lower bound, central and upper bound forecast for the value* of overseas holidays taken by UK residents, 2020-26
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 59: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2020-24 (prepared 12 March 2021)
- Forecast methodology
Appendix – COVID Scenario Performance Methodology and Assumptions
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- Volume scenario performance for total holidays
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- Figure 60: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the total volume of total holidays (domestic* and overseas) taken by UK residents, 2020-26
- Value scenario performance for total holidays
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- Figure 61: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the value* of total holidays (domestic** and overseas) taken by UK residents, 2020-26
- Volume scenario performance for domestic holidays
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- Figure 62: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the volume of domestic holidays taken by British residents, 2020-26
- Value scenario performance for domestic holidays
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- Figure 63: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the value of domestic holidays taken by British residents, 2020-26
- Volume scenario performance for overseas holidays
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- Figure 64: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the volume of overseas holidays taken by UK residents, 2020-26
- Value scenario performance for overseas holidays
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- Figure 65: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the value* of overseas holidays taken by UK residents, 2020-26
- Rapid COVID recovery, central and extended COVID disruption scenarios outline
- Scenario methodology
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