Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- China today
- Economy
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- Figure 1: Quarterly growth of GDP, China, 2000 Q1-2020 Q4
- People
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- Figure 2: Population structure, by age, China, 1982-2020
- Consumer spending
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- Figure 3: Total consumer expenditure, China, 2020-25
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- Figure 4: Sector share of total expenditure, China, 2019-25
- The consumer
- COVID has hit all consumers, but not equally
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- Figure 5: Financial confidence: proportion of those who are ‘very/somewhat/a little bit’ confident, 2019-2021
- Control over risks becomes a primary need
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- Figure 6: Most concerned factors in life, 2020-2021
- Growing consciousness about emotional wellbeing
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- Figure 7: Ways to de-stress, 2020- 2021
- Ethical brands will stand out to attract young consumers
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- Figure 8: Selected preferential actions from companies/brands, by age, 2021
- Rising patriotism shifting favour towards local brands
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- Figure 9: Attitude towards local brands, by income and city tier, 2020
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- Figure 10: Purchasing local/imported foods, 2020
- What we think
China Today - The economy
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- Manufacturing and export led the growth in 2020
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- Figure 11: Quarterly growth of GDP, China, 2000 Q1-2020 Q4
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- Figure 12: Contribution to GDP growth rate* by three major factors, China 2017-20
- Key economic indicators suggest domestic consumption will resume growth in 2021
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- Figure 13: Key economic indicators, China, Dec 2019-Apr 2021
The people
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- Population is still growing in the last decade
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- Figure 14: Total population and growth rate, China, 1982-2020
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- Figure 15: New births and birth rate, China, 2015-20
- Growing importance of grey hair and healthy ageing
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- Figure 16: Population structure, by age, China, 1982-2020
- Disposable income returning to growth boosts financial confidence
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- Figure 17: Growth of per capita disposable income (without price adjustment), China, 2015-20
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- Figure 18: Confidence in improving future financial situation (Very/somewhat confident), 2020- 2021
- COVID has hit all consumers, but not equally
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- Figure 19: Financial confidence for the next three months: proportion of those who are ‘very/somewhat/a little bit’ confident, 2019- 2021
Spending overview
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- Total spending dropped by 5.7% in 2020
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- Figure 20: Total consumer expenditure, China, 2015-20 (est)
- Spending priorities changed in 2020
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- Figure 21: Consumer expenditure by sector, 2020 (est)
- Figure 22: Spending rankings by segments, 2019-20 (est)
- Recovery speed varies by sector
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- Figure 23: Changes of spending in selected* market sectors: % spent more, by month, 2020- 2021
- Omnichannel retailing focusing on convenience and interactivity
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- Figure 24: Selected* online grocery shopping channel usage, by month, 2020- 2021
- The five-year outlook
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- Figure 25: Total consumer expenditure, China, 2020-25
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- Figure 26: Sector share of total expenditure, China, 2019-25
Sector Review-In-home food
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- What we think
- In-home food is the biggest winner after the COVID-19 outbreak
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- Figure 27: Consumer expenditure on in-home food, 2015-20 (est)
- Winning segments
- Ready meals
- Dairy products
- Meal supplement snacks and ice cream
- What’s In?
- Meal solutions with elevated convenience
- All-around sensational improvements to satisfy consumers’ indulgent demand
- Bring healthiness without taste compromise
- The five-year outlook
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- Figure 28: Forecast for consumer expenditure on in-home food, 2015-25
- Key consumer trends to watch
Foodservice (eating out and takeaways)
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- What we think
- Foodservice was disrupted by COVID-19 while shows signs of rebound
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- Figure 29: Consumer expenditure on foodservice, 2015-20 (est)
- Winning segments
- Tea houses
- Western-style fast food
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- Figure 30: Spending structure of eating out, 2020-2021
- What’s in?
- Rise of regional cuisines prompts foreign restaurant chains’ menu upgrades
- Manner Coffee expands to full-day light meal catering
- The five-year outlook
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- Figure 31: Forecast for consumer expenditure on foodservice, 2014-25
- Key consumer trends to watch
Non-alcoholic drinks
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- What we think
- COVID-19 discouraged out-of-home consumption
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- Figure 32: Consumer expenditure on non-alcoholic drinks, 2015-20 (est)
- Winning segments
- Flavoured sparkling bottled water
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- Figure 33: Share of popular claims in new sparkling non-alcoholic drinks launches, China, 2015-20
- Figure 34: Changes in consumption, 2020
- Plant protein drinks
- What’s in?
- YuanQiSenLin zero sugar sparkling water exploration in energy drinks
- Coca-Cola heats up with ginger
- The five-year outlook
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- Figure 35: forecast for consumer expenditure on non-alcoholic drinks, 2015-25
- Key consumer trends to watch
Alcoholic drinks – in-home and out-of-home
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- What we think
- COVID-19 boosted in-home alcohol consumption
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- Figure 36: Consumer expenditure on alcoholic drinks in-home, 2015-20 (est)
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- Figure 37: Consumer expenditure alcoholic drinks out-of-home, 2015-20 (est)
- Winning segments
- Western Spirits
- RTD alcoholic drinks
- Beer
- What’s in?
- Redefine whisky with tea for lower ABV
- Pernod Ricard opens its world-first flagship store in Shanghai
- Self-heating RTD red wine
- Guojiao 1573 march to cocktail business with art exhibition
- The five-year outlook
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- Figure 38: Forecast for consumer expenditure on alcoholic drinks in-home, 2016-25
- Figure 39: Forecast for consumer expenditure on alcoholic drinks out-of-home, 2015-25
- Key consumer trends to watch
Beauty and Personal Care
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- What we think
- BPC achieved robust growth amid the COVID-19 outbreak
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- Figure 40: Consumer expenditure on beauty and personal care, 2015-20 (est)
- Winning segments
- Women’s facial skincare
- Oral care
- Chinese beauty brands
- What’s in?
- L’Oréal drives the technological innovation in beauty
- Proya touches on gender equality and women empowerment issues
- Florasis levels up the competition of Chinese-style makeup
- The five-year outlook
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- Figure 41: Forecast for consumer expenditure on beauty and personal care, 2015-25
- Key consumer trends to watch
OTC and Pharmaceuticals
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- What we think
- COVID-19 had a positive impact on OTC and pharmaceuticals spending
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- Figure 42: Consumer expenditure on OTC and pharmaceuticals, 2015-20 (est)
- Winning segments
- Probiotic supplements
- Innovative therapeutic drugs
- What’s in?
- Infinitus showcasing transparency via live streaming
- Xiaomi’s evolution into personalised health solution partner
- Yiling expands product portfolio using major ingredients in its OTC remedies
- The five-year outlook
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- Figure 43: Forecast for consumer expenditure on OTC and pharmaceuticals, 2015-25
- Key consumer trends to watch
Clothing and Accessories
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- What we think
- COVID-19 had a severe impact on clothing and accessories
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- Figure 44: Consumer expenditure on leisure and entertainment, 2015-20 (est)
- Winning segments
- Luxury shopping shifted back home
- Athleisure is in vogue
- What’s in?
- Blend digital experience into fashion
- Popularised minimalism integrating with IP merchandising
- The five-year outlook
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- Figure 45: Forecast for consumer expenditure on clothing and accessories, 2015-25
- Key consumer trends to watch
Technology and Communication
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- What we think
- COVID-19 marks its impact on consumer usage of technology gadgets
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- Figure 46: Consumer expenditure on technology and communication, 2015-20 (est)
- Winning segments
- Games market is flourishing
- What’s in?
- Smart products for better health
- A year for foldable smartphones
- The five-year outlook
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- Figure 47: Forecast for consumer expenditure on technology and communication, 2015-25
- Key consumer trends to watch
Household care
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- What we think
- Stronger growth in 2020 benefiting from hygiene fear and more time at home
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- Figure 48: Consumer expenditure on household care, 2015-20 (est)
- Winning segments
- Household cleaners
- What’s in?
- Anti-bacterial became a key claim in household care
- Growing demand for natural products continued to drive product innovation
- The five-year outlook
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- Figure 49: Forecast for consumer expenditure on household care, 2015-25
- Key consumer trends to watch
Home
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- What we think
- Home spending impacted by COVID-19, but the opportunity still exists
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- Figure 50: Consumer expenditure on home, 2015-20 (est)
- Winning segments
- Smart home remained positive and fuelled the recovery
- Small home appliances are expected to bounce back quickly
- What’s in?
- Build ecosystem to activate holistic in-home experience
- Win consumers’ hearts and mind by taking ‘effortless’ to the next level
- The five-year outlook
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- Figure 51: Forecast for consumer expenditure on home, 2015-25
- Key consumer trends to watch
Transport
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- What we think
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- Figure 52: Consumer expenditure on transport, 2015-20 (est)
- Winning segments
- What’s in?
- The five-year outlook
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- Figure 53: forecast for consumer expenditure on transport, 2015-2025
- Key consumer trends to watch
Leisure and entertainment
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- What we think
- COVID-19 had a severe impact on leisure spending
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- Figure 54: Consumer expenditure on leisure and entertainment, 2015-20 (est)
- Winning segments
- Game streaming
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- Figure 55: Online entertainment users, 2018-19
- Designer toys
- What’s in?
- Bilibili’s New Year Gala: mashing up different subcultures
- Keep’s evolution into a holistic fitness solution provider
- The five-year outlook
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- Figure 56: Forecast for consumer expenditure on leisure and entertainment, 2015-25
- Key consumer trends to watch
Holidays
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- What we think
- COVID-19 had a severe impact on holiday spending
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- Figure 57: Consumer expenditure on holidays, 2015-20 (est)
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- Figure 58: Domestic travellers at key holiday times in China, 2019-20
- Winning segments
- Domestic self-drive tours
- What’s In?
- Livestream powered travel inspiration
- Accommodation brands extend service territory
- The five-year outlook
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- Figure 59: Forecast for consumer expenditure on holidays, 2015-25
- Key consumer trends to watch
Personal finance and housing
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- What we think
- Still positive but growth is slowing down
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- Figure 60: Consumer expenditure on personal finance and housing, 2015-20
- Personal Finance
- Housing
- Winning segments
- Health-related insurance is still the hot spot
- The housing market is seeing growth significantly
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- Figure 61: Number of cities where house prices comparative grow month-on-month, January 2020-December 2020
- What’s in?
- Insurance embrace digital currency
- The five-year outlook
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- Figure 62: Forecast for consumer expenditure on personal finance and housing, 2015-25
- Key consumer trends to watch
Miscellaneous
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- What we think
- Growth in online services spending cannot offset the decline in offline services spending
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- Figure 63: Consumer expenditure on miscellaneous, 2015-20 (est)
- Winning segments
- Social pet-working-related services
- Hospital-based consultancy and medication services
- Demand for e-learning grow as more people invest in hobbies and career skills
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- Figure 64: Population of e-learning users and growth rate, June 2016-June 2020
- What’s in?
- New Ruipeng collaborates with Meituan to offer online pet medical service
- Huawei upgrades smart products to support data-driven health and life management
- Xueersi Online School implements emotional marketing to resonate with parents
- The five-year outlook
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- Figure 65: Forecast for consumer expenditure on miscellaneous, 2015-25
- Key consumer trends to watch
The Consumer - Stronger sense of self-protection
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- Food safety is key
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- Figure 66: Most concerned factors in life, 2020-2021
- Attention on pollution issues
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- Figure 67: Selected preferential actions from companies/brands, by age, 2021
- Concerns over intrusion of privacy on the rise
Emotional wellbeing gaining importance
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- Positive mindset aided people through difficulties
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- Figure 68: Biggest change in 2020, 2020
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- Figure 69: Biggest change in 2020, consumer verbatim, 2020
- Music, shopping and exercising gaining popularity as ways to de-stress
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- Figure 70: Ways to de-stress, 2020- 2021
Redefining life values
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- No longer simply focusing on the pay
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- Figure 71: Ideal job, 2020
- Strong eagerness in participating in socially responsible activities
Local brands gaining favour
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- National pride drives preference for Chinese brands
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- Figure 72: Attitude towards local brands, by income and city tier, 2020
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- Figure 73: Attitude towards local brands: proportion who “agree” or “strongly agree” I would like to buy Chinese brands to show support after the outbreak”, by family structure, 2020
- Closer to the local community
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- Figure 74: Purchasing local/imported foods, 2020
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- Figure 75: Purchasing local/imported foods, by demographics, 2020
Appendix – Methodology and Abbreviations
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- Methodology
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market and Consumer Data
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- Figure 76: Total consumer expenditure (RMB bn), by market sectors, China, 2020-25
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- Figure 77: Year-on-year change of total consumer expenditure (RMB bn), by market sectors, China, 2021-25
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- Figure 78: Growth rate of GDP and by three major industries, China 2017-20
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- Figure 79: Changes of spending by selected market sectors (part I): % spent more, by month, 2020- 2021
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- Figure 80: Changes of spending by selected market sectors (part II): % spent more, by month, 2020- 2021
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- Figure 81: Selected grocery shopping channel usage (online), by month, 2020- 2021
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- Figure 82: Selected grocery shopping channel usage (offline), by month, 2020- 2021
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