Grocery ecommerce was experiencing solid growth before COVID-19, but the pandemic catapulted its trajectory ahead by years, leading sales to surpass $100 billion for the first time in 2020. Many consumers shifted grocery shopping online specifically to minimize the risk of exposure by shopping in stores. While some will revert back to the store as their preferred channel once pandemic threats ease, many will hold to their newly formed routines thanks to the convenience and value savings they’ve discovered with online grocery shopping. Moving forward, it’s likely that most consumers will do more of a mix of in-store/online shopping rather than exclusively in stores. What’s more, grocery retailers are making substantial investments to expand online coverage, services and capabilities, which will make it even easier for consumers to shift how they shop in favor of digital means. While online grocery retailers have primarily been trying to keep up with current demands, they are shifting to a more forward-looking view, one that involves substantial opportunities to make the online grocery shopping experience more engaging and fun.

• The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and the grocery market, particularly grocery ecommerce

• Where consumers are shopping online, including who’s winning and who’s at risk

• How much online grocery shopping consumers plan to do in the future and who the most likely target audiences are

• Factors that drive consumers to shop online and barriers that prevent them from doing so more

This Report focuses on all retail channels that sell grocery products online, including internet-only retailers as well as the ecommerce operations of traditional supermarkets, warehouse clubs, natural markets, drug stores, dollar stores, convenience stores and specialty food retailers.

Groceries are defined as products such as food, beverages, household goods (eg cleaning products, toilet paper, garbage bags) and/or personal care products. The primary focus of the research is on food and beverages.

This Report builds upon Mintel’s Evolving eCommerce: Grocery Retailing – US, June 2020, Grocery Retailing: Incl. Impact of COVID-19 – US, April 2020, and The Impact of COVID-19 on Food and Drink Retailing – US, June 2020. An important companion to this Report is Mintel’s Grocery Retailing – US, April 2021. It is recommended that that Report be reviewed in tandem with this one to get the full picture.

This Report includes consumer research fielded in January and February 2021. The Report was written in April and May 2021 and the analysis reflects the state of the category and pandemic during this time.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on CBO estimates released on February 1, 2021. The CBO’s previous forecast for US GDP to fall by 5.8% in 2020 was revised after a stronger second half of the year, and the updated estimate indicates negative 3.5% GDP for the year. The CBO forecasts GDP to grow by 4.6% in 2021 and projects unemployment to continue to fall to average 5.7% for the year.

The first COVID-19 case was confirmed in the US in January 2020. It was declared a global health pandemic and national emergency in early March 2020. Across the US, various stay-at-home orders were put in place in Spring 2020, and nonessential businesses and school districts closed or shifted to remote operations. The remainder of 2020 saw rolling orders, as states and local governments relaxed and reinforced guidelines according to the spread of the virus in each region.

Vaccine roll-out began in December 2020. Mintel anticipates business operations in the US will remain in a state of flux through 2021 as vaccines are widely administered and social distancing restrictions and capacity limitations are relaxed.