Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on the courier and express delivery market
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- Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the courier and express delivery market, 19 April 2021
- The market
- Market size and forecast
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- Figure 2: Market size and forecast for the courier and express delivery market (£ bn), 2016-25
- Market segmentation
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- Figure 3: Annual measured parcel volume* (millions of parcels), 2015/16-2019/20
- Companies and brands
- Industry structure
- Company profiles
Issues and Insights
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- Influx of new owner-drivers could be left to dry if demand pulls back
- New drone trials bring commercial use one step closer
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Courier market rises to £12bn as pandemic draws new consumers to the world of online retailing
- Domestic parcel volumes continue growth while international parcels are held back by Brexit uncertainty
- Permanent increase in online shopping will boost growth but Brexit could hinder international activity in the short term
Market Size
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- Lockdowns and social distancing push retail practices in courier’s favour
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- Figure 4: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the courier and express delivery market, 19 April 2021
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- Figure 5: UK courier and express delivery market (£ bn, prepared on 19 April 2021), 2016-20
- Demand surge and COVID-19 raise the need for rapid investment
- Conclusion
Market Segmentation
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- International parcel volumes stagnated as COVID-19 and Brexit disrupt trade
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- Figure 6: Annual measured parcel volume* (millions of parcels), 2015/16-2019/20
- Total revenues hold steady but per-parcel prices and Brexit costs fall
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- Figure 7: Annual revenue of national parcel operators*, excluding letters and same-day delivery** (£ m), 2015/16-2019/20
- Market competition continues to drag average per-unit prices down
Market Forecast
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- Increased ecommerce activity will not be enough to offset long-term price pressures
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- Figure 8: UK courier and express delivery market forecast (£ bn), 2021-25
Market Trends
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- Regulatory reforms have sparked the beginning of an EV transition
- Barriers to EV uptake
- The new post-Brexit trading regime is bound to raise cost pressures
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- Figure 9: Monthly UK trade in EU goods (imports) (£bn), 2019 and 2020
- New shipping requirements are deterring UK-EU trade
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- Figure 10: UK trade in EU and non-EU goods (imports and exports) (£bn), March 2020-February 2021
- Brexit will add to consumers’ existing barriers to international commerce
Market Drivers
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- Social distancing drives rise in online shopping
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- Figure 11: UK online retail sales as a proportion of total retail sales (% of UK retail sales), 2019 and 2020
- Older consumers are shopping online more…
- …while younger consumers contend with economic uncertainty
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- Figure 12: Online retail sales by category (Percentage and %), year to February 2021
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Flexible employment model enabled a pandemic-driven boom
- Pandemic online shopping boom brings in revenue for adaptive investments
Industry Structure
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- Industry structure
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- Figure 13: Changes in the industry structure of postal and courier activities (number of businesses and outlets), 2016-20
- Employment structure
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- Figure 14: Changes in the employment structure of postal and courier activities (number of outlets and percentage), 2019 and 2020
- Turnover structure
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- Figure 15: Changes in the turnover structure of postal and courier activities (number of businesses and percentage), 2019 and 2020
Company Profiles
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- DPD Group UK
- Recent company activity
- Financial activity
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- Figure 16: Financial analysis of DPD Group UK Ltd (£m and %), 2016-19
- Hermes Parcelnet
- Recent company activity
- Financial activity
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- Figure 17: Financial analysis of Hermes Parcelnet (£m and %), 2016-20
- Royal Mail
- Recent company activity
- Financial activity
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- Figure 18: Financial analysis of Royal Mail Group Ltd (£m and %), 2016-20
- UPS UK
- Recent company activity
- Financial activity
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- Figure 19: Financial analysis of UPS UK Ltd (£m and %), 2015-19
- Yodel Delivery Network
- Recent company activity
- Financial activity
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- Figure 20: Financial analysis of Yodel Delivery Network Ltd (£m and %), 2016-20
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
Further Sources and Contacts
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- Trade associations
- Trade magazines
- Trade events
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