Courier & Express Delivery - UK - April 2021

OVERVIEW
Key issues covered in this report
COVID-19: market context
Economic and other assumptions
Covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Impact of COVID-19 on the courier and express delivery market
Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the courier and express delivery market, 19 April 2021
The market
Market size and forecast
Figure 2: Market size and forecast for the courier and express delivery market (£ bn), 2016-25
Market segmentation
Figure 3: Annual measured parcel volume* (millions of parcels), 2015/16-2019/20
Companies and brands
Industry structure
Company profiles
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Influx of new owner-drivers could be left to dry if demand pulls back
New drone trials bring commercial use one step closer
THE MARKET – KEY TAKEAWAYS
Courier market rises to £12bn as pandemic draws new consumers to the world of online retailing 
Domestic parcel volumes continue growth while international parcels are held back by Brexit uncertainty 
Permanent increase in online shopping will boost growth but Brexit could hinder international activity in the short term
MARKET SIZE 
Lockdowns and social distancing push retail practices in courier’s favour
Figure 4: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the courier and express delivery market, 19 April 2021
Figure 5: UK courier and express delivery market (£ bn, prepared on 19 April 2021), 2016-20
Demand surge and COVID-19 raise the need for rapid investment
Conclusion
MARKET SEGMENTATION
International parcel volumes stagnated as COVID-19 and Brexit disrupt trade
Figure 6: Annual measured parcel volume* (millions of parcels), 2015/16-2019/20
Total revenues hold steady but per-parcel prices and Brexit costs fall
Figure 7: Annual revenue of national parcel operators*, excluding letters and same-day delivery** (£ m), 2015/16-2019/20
Market competition continues to drag average per-unit prices down
MARKET FORECAST
Increased ecommerce activity will not be enough to offset long-term price pressures 
Figure 8: UK courier and express delivery market forecast (£ bn), 2021-25
MARKET TRENDS
Regulatory reforms have sparked the beginning of an EV transition
Barriers to EV uptake
The new post-Brexit trading regime is bound to raise cost pressures
Figure 9: Monthly UK trade in EU goods (imports) (£bn), 2019 and 2020
New shipping requirements are deterring UK-EU trade
Figure 10: UK trade in EU and non-EU goods (imports and exports) (£bn), March 2020-February 2021
Brexit will add to consumers’ existing barriers to international commerce
MARKET DRIVERS
Social distancing drives rise in online shopping
Figure 11: UK online retail sales as a proportion of total retail sales (% of UK retail sales), 2019 and 2020
Older consumers are shopping online more…
…while younger consumers contend with economic uncertainty
Figure 12: Online retail sales by category (Percentage and %), year to February 2021
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – KEY TAKEAWAYS
Flexible employment model enabled a pandemic-driven boom  
Pandemic online shopping boom brings in revenue for adaptive investments  
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
Industry structure
Figure 13: Changes in the industry structure of postal and courier activities (number of businesses and outlets), 2016-20
Employment structure
Figure 14: Changes in the employment structure of postal and courier activities (number of outlets and percentage), 2019 and 2020
Turnover structure
Figure 15: Changes in the turnover structure of postal and courier activities (number of businesses and percentage), 2019 and 2020
COMPANY PROFILES
DPD Group UK
Recent company activity
Financial activity
Figure 16: Financial analysis of DPD Group UK Ltd (£m and %), 2016-19
Hermes Parcelnet
Recent company activity
Financial activity
Figure 17: Financial analysis of Hermes Parcelnet (£m and %), 2016-20
Royal Mail
Recent company activity
Financial activity
Figure 18: Financial analysis of Royal Mail Group Ltd (£m and %), 2016-20
UPS UK
Recent company activity
Financial activity
Figure 19: Financial analysis of UPS UK Ltd (£m and %), 2015-19
Yodel Delivery Network
Recent company activity
Financial activity
Figure 20: Financial analysis of Yodel Delivery Network Ltd (£m and %), 2016-20
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
FURTHER SOURCES AND CONTACTS
Trade associations
Trade magazines
Trade events