25% of consumers agree that “online socialising and entertainment can be just as enjoyable as in-person social and entertainment activities”, compared to 39% who disagree. For younger generations, the percentage who agree is markedly higher, with 37% of 16-24 year olds agreeing as opposed to 8% of over-65s. The popularity of online entertainment with younger generations indicates that some of the digital innovations seen in leisure since the coronavirus outbreak could be here to stay longer-term.

COVID-19 has decimated the out-of-home leisure industry through the enforced shutdown of large swathes of the sector. 2021 has the potential to unleash a wave of pent-up demand from which many leisure activities will be a beneficiary. Digital services that have sprung up during lockdown can have a lasting impact on the in-home sector, with some consumers even potentially forgoing a return to real world equivalents, such as continuing to do virtual work-out classes over returning to gyms.

A lot of out-of-home leisure events, such as music festivals, are largely at the mercy of how the pandemic unfolds. Should such events go ahead, a requirement to test all audience members, or for all attendees to be vaccinated, can present significant logistical challenges. Outside of mass events, residual concerns about returning to indoor settings, such as theatres and cinemas, vaccinated or not, after a year of conditioning to avoid such places can hamper recovery.

Despite some reticence surrounding the out-of-home sector, enough pent-up demand should create the potential for a celebratory feel in the summer 2021 months, as families and friends re-unite and make up for missed occasions. Furthermore, significant groundwork for direct-to-consumer experiences over the past year looks set to create an enduring market for the in-home leisure sector, from premium Michelin-starred meal kits to digital fitness propositions. In-home activities have never been so flexible and varied, which can sustain a healthy parallel market after the pandemic has subsided.

• The impact of COVID-19 on the UK leisure market and consumer behaviour

• Participation in in- and out-of-home leisure activities prior to and following the outbreak of COVID-19

• Innovations of brands and companies operating in the in- and out-of-home leisure markets

• Future consumer behaviours relating to in- and out-of-home leisure

• Consumer attitudes towards in- versus out-of-home leisure

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. Rapidly rising case numbers led to the first national lockdown, starting on 23 March. It wasn’t until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to reopen, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a month-long lockdown from 5 November and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions.

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions further in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown.

On 22 February, Boris Johnson announced the roadmap to an easing of restrictions in England, starting with the reopening of schools on 8 March, followed by easing of restrictions on outdoor gatherings on 29 March and with a hoped end to all restrictions by 21 June. The Welsh and Scottish governments also gave more details on their plans to ease restrictions, with both nations taking a slightly more cautious approach to the one planned for England.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and with the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines licensed for use in the UK, the government aims to offer a first dose of the vaccine to all adults by 31 July 2021.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its March 2021 Economic and Fiscal Outlook Report. After the fall of 9.9% over the course of 2020, the scenario suggests that UK GDP will grow by 4% in 2021 and 7.3% in 2022.

GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until Q2 2022, although this is six months earlier than the OBR forecast in November 2020, mainly because of the faster-than-expected rollout of vaccines.

Unemployment is expected to peak at 6.5% in Q4 2021. As with GDP, this is more positive than the OBR’s November forecast, but the OBR does raise the prospect of long-term scarring on employment, especially in the more exposed retail and hospitality sectors.

This Report covers the UK leisure industry both in- and out-of-home.

• Eating/drinking (including dine in and takeaway/home delivery): including restaurants, pubs/bars and nightclubs

• Health and fitness activities: sports participation, private health and fitness clubs and public leisure centres/swimming pools, digital fitness services and streaming

• Live entertainment: music concerts and festivals, performing arts, cinemas and spectator sports

• In-home entertainment: music and video streaming services, exercise, gardening and DIY, video gaming, arts and crafts and home-baking

• Gambling: land-based gambling and online gaming and betting

• Other leisure activities: visitor attractions, museums, theme parks and tenpin bowling.