Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Multi-outlet sales and fan chart forecast of groceries, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on grocery
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on grocery, April 2021
- Opportunities and challenges
- Online grocery was growing pre-pandemic, but has leapfrogged ahead by years
- Support shoppers’ overall wellbeing with helpful tips and advice
- Technology advancements will support grocers and shoppers
- Reinstate consumers’ enjoyment of grocery shopping
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- 2020 was an anomaly, boosting sales 12%
- Majority of multi-outlet grocery sales do not occur in supermarkets
- Consumers want to boost their immune system and stay healthy
- Down economy drives shoppers to prioritize value
Market Size and Forecast
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- Groceries prioritized amid pandemic, yielding huge sales boost
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- Figure 3: Multi-outlet sales and fan chart forecast of groceries, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 4: Multi-outlet sales and forecast of groceries, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on grocery
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- Figure 5: Coronavirus behaviors, April 16, 2020-February 10, 2021
Segment Performance
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- Other channels, led by Walmart, continue to outperform supermarkets
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- Figure 6: Multi-outlet sales and forecast of groceries, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- Food and drink should remain dominant grocery segment; opportunity for supermarkets to grow in other areas
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- Figure 7: Multi-outlet sales of groceries, by category, at current prices, 2015-20
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- Figure 8: Hy-Vee Pharmacy promotion
Market Factors
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- COVID-19 reverses what was a growing trend in favor of food away from home
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- Figure 9: Sales of food at home and away from home, January 2010-November 2020
- Figure 10: Comfort with select activities and behaviors amid Covid-19, January 28-Febuary 10, 2021
- Americans are trying to eat healthier
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- Figure 11: Anticipated future food-related behaviors, November 2020
- Food price increases in a down economy puts strain on consumers
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- Figure 12: Average household spending on groceries, 2015-20
- Figure 13: Financial health, by household income, March 19-April 2, 2021
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Top US grocers evenly comprised of traditional supermarkets and other MULO outlets
- Pandemic continues; grocers adjust while preparing for more change
- Grocers turn to technology to make grocery shopping easier
Company Sales of Grocery Retailers
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- Half of top 20 grocery retailers are not traditional supermarkets
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- Figure 14: Top US grocery retailers, 2020 (for 2019 sales)
Competitive Strategies
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- Albertsons teams up with Google to advance omnichannel offerings
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- Figure 15: Albertsons and Google partner to reimagine grocery shopping
- Walmart bets big on omnichannel, with emphasis on grocery
- TJ’s aims to make grocery shopping more inclusive by helping people with autism
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- Figure 16: Trader Joe’s supports shoppers with autism
- Kroger helps shoppers make healthy choices with enhanced app
- More stores, new concepts
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- Figure 17: H-E-B new store concept in Lubbock, Texas
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- Figure 18: More Amazon Fresh stores open in 2021
Market Opportunities
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- Enforce hygiene protocols
- Adjust to shopping behavioral changes
- Extend community outreach
- Consider partnerships with other companies
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Shopping frequency has declined
- Physical stores still preferred, despite huge ecommerce spike
- Supermarkets remain top choice for grocery shopping overall, but not among all consumers
- Consumers seek grocers close to home that offer fresh foods
- A more proactive and conscious approach to grocery shopping
- Shoppers open to recipe ideas and healthy eating options from grocers
- Grocery shoppers look forward to the day when free samples return
Grocery Shopping Overview
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- Who’s shopping?
- Nearly all adults do some degree of grocery shopping
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- Figure 19: Grocery shopping responsibility, by gender and generation, January 2021
- How often they shop
- Shopping frequency down due to pandemic
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- Figure 20: Shopping frequency, by gender and generation, January 2021
- Where they shop
- Most grocery shopping still occurs in-store, despite ecommerce gains amid pandemic
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- Figure 21: Shopping methods, January 2021
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- Figure 22: Shopping methods, by generation, January 2021
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- Figure 23: Preferred shopping method by trip type, January 2021
- The pandemic effect
- Online shopping, stock-ups and trip consolidation represent primary behavioral changes during COVID-19
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- Figure 24: Shopping behaviors during COVID-19, January 2021
Shopping by Category
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- All categories likely to be shopped online more in future
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- Figure 25: Shopping for major categories – Online versus in-store, January 2021
- Category impacts amid pandemic
Retailers Shopped In-store
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- Supermarkets remain top preferred retail outlet for groceries
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- Figure 26: Retailers shopped in-store, January 2021
- Younger shoppers more likely to head to Walmart, Target or a natural supermarket
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- Figure 27: Retailers shopped in-store, by generation, January 2021
- Consumers stay close to home during pandemic
Reasons for Preferred Grocery Retailer
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- Loyal to proximity
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- Figure 28: Reasons for preferred physical grocery retailer, January 2021
- Women much more likely to value proximity and freshness
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- Figure 29: Reasons for preferred physical grocery retailer, by gender, January 2021
In-store Shopping Behaviors
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- Grocery shopping a more proactive and planned-out process
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- Figure 30: In-store shopping behaviors, January 2021
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- Figure 31: Trader Joe’s promotes prepared foods
- Older consumers more set in routines
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- Figure 32: In-store shopping behaviors, by generation, January 2021
- When a desired brand isn’t available…what do consumers do?
Attitudes toward In-store Grocery Shopping
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- Consumers generally positive about in-store grocery shopping
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- Figure 33: Attitudes toward in-store shopping, January 2021
- Grocers can take a more proactive approach to providing consumers with what they want
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- Figure 34: Select attitudes toward in-store shopping, by generation, January 2021
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- Figure 35: Kroger hosts webinar on food waste
- Figure 36: Whole Foods promotes tips and food pairings
- Consumers grow more open to store brands
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- Figure 37: Attitudes toward store brands, by household income and generation, January 2021
Interest in In-store Retail Concepts
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- Concepts that offer convenience or invite discovery garner the most interest
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- Figure 38: Interest in in-store retail concepts, January 2021
- Younger shoppers more interested in experiential in-store concepts
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- Figure 39: Interest in in-store retail concepts, January 2021
Interest in Shopping App Functionality
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- App usage overall is low, but will grow as consumers learn they can save time and/or money
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- Figure 40: Interest in shopping app functionality, by generation, January 2021
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Inflation-adjusted forecasts
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- Figure 41: Multi-outlet sales and forecast of groceries, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 42: Supermarket sales and forecast of groceries, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 43: Sales and forecast of groceries through other multi-outlet channels, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Retail channels by category sales
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- Figure 44: Supermarket sales of groceries, by category, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 45: Sales of groceries through other multi-outlet channels, by category, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 46: Multi-outlet sales of food and drink, by retail channel, at current prices, 2015-20
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- Figure 47: Multi-outlet sales of general merchandise, by retail channel, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 48: Multi-outlet sales of HBC, by retail channel, at current prices, 2015-20
Appendix – Companies and Brands
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- Figure 49: Top US grocery retailers, brands/concepts included, 2020
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 50: Shopping behaviors during COVID-19, by gender and generation, January 2021
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