Multi-outlet grocery sales had been slowly and steadily rising each year before the COVID-19 pandemic unexpectedly boosted sales to record heights in 2020. This caught grocers off guard, and most were unprepared for the sudden shifts in grocery shopping behavior, including a rapid rise in ecommerce. At the time of writing, a little more than a year later, both shoppers and grocers are still adjusting to new routines and protocols and looking forward to some “normalcy.” The next normal for grocery will entail rapid deployment of technology and tools and a much more proactive effort on retailers’ part to help consumers truly enjoy the grocery shopping process again, rather than just trying to accomplish this necessary task as quickly and safely as possible.

• The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and the grocery market

• Where consumers are doing their grocery shopping and why they choose their primary grocer

• How consumers are doing their shopping, and the evolving role of ecommerce in the path to purchase

• What in-store retail concepts and services consumers are most interested in seeing from grocers

This Report focuses on all retail channels that provide grocery products including traditional supermarkets, warehouse clubs, natural markets, drug stores, dollar stores, convenience stores and internet retailers.

Groceries are defined as products such as food, beverages, household goods (eg cleaning products, toilet paper, garbage bags) and/or personal care products. The primary focus of the research is on food and beverages.

This Report will provide an overview of the grocery retailing landscape in total, including both in-store and online shopping. However, the focus will be on the in-store shopping experience, given that it remains the strong preference among most grocery shoppers. Mintel’s upcoming Online Grocery Retailing – US, May 2021 will delve into the growing online grocery landscape. It is recommended that that Report be reviewed in tandem with this one to get the full picture.

This Report builds upon Mintel’s Grocery Retailing: Incl. Impact of COVID-19 – US, April 2020, Evolving eCommerce: Grocery Retailing – US, June 2020 and The Impact of COVID-19 on Food and Drink Retailing – US, June 2020.

This Report includes consumer research fielded in January 2021. The Report was written March-April 2021, and the analysis reflects the state of the category and pandemic during this time.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on CBO estimates released on February 1, 2021. The CBO’s previous forecast for US GDP to fall by 5.8% in 2020 was revised after a stronger second half of the year and the updated estimate indicates negative 3.5% GDP for the year. The CBO forecasts GDP to grow by 4.6% in 2021 and projects unemployment to continue to fall to average 5.7% for the year.

The first COVID-19 case was confirmed in the US in January 2020. It was declared a global health pandemic and national emergency in early March 2020. Across the US, various stay-at-home orders were put in place in Spring 2020, and nonessential businesses and school districts closed or shifted to remote operations. The remainder of 2020 saw rolling orders, as states and local governments relaxed and reinforced guidelines according to the spread of the virus in each region.

Vaccine distribution began in December 2020, and it is expected take anywhere from July to December 2021 for 70-90% of the population to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity. Mintel anticipates business operations in the US will remain in a state of flux through 2021 as the vaccine is widely administered.