Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- While a dip in sales predicted for 2021, slow and steady growth beyond
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 2: Total US sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on CSDs
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- Figure 3: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on carbonated soft drinks, March 2021
- Issue and Opportunities
- Other beverages are aiming for CSD on all occasions
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- Figure 4: Consumption occasions for carbonated soft drinks and other drinks, January 2021
- Sugar, health concerns still haunt the category
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- Figure 5: Reasons for decreased CSD consumption, January 2021
- Medium frequency drinkers are the path to growth
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- Figure 6: Carbonated soft drink consumption frequency, medium users, January 2021
- Lean into indulgence
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- Figure 7: Carbonated soft drink attitudes, January 2021
- Target 18-34s with contemporary innovation
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- Figure 8: Interest in carbonated soft drink innovations, by age, January 2021
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- After 2020 growth of almost 8%, growth will drop in in 2021
- Diet, zero positioning drives the total market
- Shifting US demographics point to innovation opportunities
- More functional CSDs and sustainable practices for the long term
Market Size and Forecast
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- 2021 a year of transition; slow and steady growth beyond
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- Figure 9: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2015-2025
- Impact of COVID-19 on CSDs
Segment Performance
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- Diet CSD segment innovation brings market shift
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
- Diet to outpace full-calorie growth going forward
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- C-stores flounder, while supermarkets and other thrive
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- Figure 14: Total US sales of carbonated soft drinks, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
Market Factors
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- Elevated unemployment, low confidence keep consumers conservative
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- Figure 15: US unemployment, January 2007-February 2021
- Figure 16: US Consumer Confidence, January 2007-January 2021
- Crowded beverage space remains crowded, blurry
- COVID-19 obesity diabetes connections will linger
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- Figure 17: Age-adjusted prevalence of diagnosed, undiagnosed and total diabetes among adults aged 18 years or older, US, 2013-16
- Shifts in population demographics point to challenges and opportunities
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- Figure 18: US Population by generation, 2015–25
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Big three CSDs grow sales, Keurig Dr Pepper builds share
- Diet CSDs soar, led by zero sugar brands
- Traditional trusted brands and nostalgic, patriotic themes
- Sophisticated flavors and fruit flavors
- Appealing to parents with kid-friendly packaging and mini cans
Market Share
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- CSD giants grow sales, but only Keurig Dr Pepper builds share
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- Figure 19: Multi-outlet sales of carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks, 2020 and 2021
- Keurig crushes it in the regular CSD segment
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- Figure 20: Multi-outlet sales of full-calorie carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Diet CSD growth soars, led by zero sugar brands
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- Figure 21: Multi-outlet sales of diet carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2020 and 2021
Competitive Strategies
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- Doubling down on innovation
- Coca-Cola uses powerful voice to remind consumers to live with hope, unity, activism and kindness
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- Figure 22: Coca-Cola ad, June 2020
- Figure 23: Coca-Cola ad, June 3, 2020
- Pepsi aims to lift spirits with fun and laughter
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- Figure 24: Pepsi Zero, February 2021
- Bringing happy hour home with sophisticated mixers, NABs
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- Figure 25: mixer examples, February 2021
- Intersection of fun and (gut) function
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- Figure 26: Gut Health CSD examples, February 2021
Market Opportunities
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- Push the boundaries of functional innovation
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- Figure 27: Functional ingredient experience and interest, by generation, December 2020
- CSDs with sustainable practices, supporting holistic wellness
- Subscription services and loyalty programs
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- More than eight in 10 enjoy CSDs
- Consumption has grown during the pandemic
- Concerns about sugar and health linger
- Flavor trumps price, brand
- Keep the innovation coming
Carbonated Soft Drinks Purchased
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- Two sugar tales: consumers split on regular and diet/zero
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- Figure 28: Types of carbonated soft drinks purchased, January 2021
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- Figure 29: Repertoire of CSDs purchased, January 2021
- Men demonstrate broader engagement
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- Figure 30: Types of carbonated soft drinks purchased, by gender, January 2021
- Figure 31: Repertoire of CSDs purchased, by gender, January 2021
- Diverse CSD purchase among those aged 18-34
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- Figure 32: Types of carbonated soft drinks purchased, by age, January 2021
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- Figure 33: Repertoire of CSDs purchased, by age, January 2021
- Overlap between parents and Millennials play out in consumption
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- Figure 34: Types of carbonated soft drinks purchased , January 2021
- Figure 35: Repertoire of CSDs purchased, by parental status, January 2021
Consumption Frequency
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- More than half of CSD consumers are high frequency drinkers
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- Figure 36: Carbonated soft drink consumption frequency, January 2021
- 18-34 years olds susceptible to wandering palates
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- Figure 37: Carbonated soft drink consumption frequency, heavy users, January 2021
- Medium users = opportunity for growth
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- Figure 38: Carbonated soft drink consumption frequency, medium users, January 2021
Change in Carbonated Soft Drink Purchase
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- Pandemic reversed category attrition and created opportunities
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- Figure 39: Change in carbonated soft drink purchase, January 2021
- Tap into 18-34 year olds to keep the momentum
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- Figure 40: Increased carbonated soft drink purchase, by key demographics, January 2021
Reasons for Purchase Changes
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- The pandemic has encouraged many to indulge at home
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- Figure 41: Reasons for increased CSD purchase, January 2021
- Women have indulged, while men have explored and expanded usage
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- Figure 42: Reasons for increased CSD purchase, January 2021
- Unhealthy rep, sugar fuel cut backs
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- Figure 43: Reasons for reduced CSD purchase, January 2021
- Women reach for water, cut back sugar
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- Figure 44: Reasons for reduced CSD purchase, January 2021
CSDs and Competition
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- Men drink more of a range of beverages beyond CSDs
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- Figure 45: Consumption of other drinks, by gender, January 2021
- Younger adults are thirsty for innovation beyond CSDs
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- Figure 46: Consumption of other drinks, by age, January 2021
- Treat parents like individuals too
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- Figure 47: Consumption occasions for carbonated soft drinks, by parental status, January 2021
CSD Occasions
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- CSDs enjoy occasion versatility; so do competitors
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- Figure 48: Consumption occasions for carbonated soft drink and other drinks, January 2021
- Woman are prime for new occasions
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- Figure 49: Consumption occasions for carbonated soft drinks, by gender, January 2021
- Those 34-54 consume CSDs at widest range of occasions
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- Figure 50: Consumption occasions for carbonated soft drinks, by age, January 2021
Important features
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- Flavor is prime, followed by price and brand
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- Figure 51: Important CSD features , January 2021
- Classic tastes
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- Figure 52: TURF Analysis – CSD purchase attributes, January 2021
- Women reject corn syrup, are more attentive to ingredients
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- Figure 53: Important features when purchasing CSDs, by gender January 2021
- Sugar concerns creep in with age
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- Figure 54: Important CSD features, by age January 2021
- Parents prize multi-packs and mini-cans
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- Figure 55: Important CSD features, by parental status, January 2021
Appealing CSD Sweeteners
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- Consumers are not quite sure about sweeteners
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- Figure 56: CSD Sweeteners, January 2021
- Women stick to sugar, stevia
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- Figure 57: CSD sweeteners, by gender, January 2021
- Younger consumers want real sugar; 55+ stick with stevia or Splenda
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- Figure 58: CSD sweeteners, by age, January 2021
Carbonated Soft Drink Attitudes
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- Familiar indulgences outrank health, by a sliver
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- Figure 59: Carbonated soft drink attitudes, January 2021
- Women more likely to see CSDs as unhealthy, limit impulse buys
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- Figure 60: Carbonated soft drink attitudes, by gender, January 2021
- Those aged 55+ stick to the familiar, limit impulse buys
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- Figure 61: Carbonated soft drink attitudes, by age, January 2021
Interest in CSD Innovations
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- Interest in innovation suggests CSD fans are thirsty for more
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- Figure 62: Interest in carbonated soft drink innovations, January 2021
- Men drink more CSDs and want more
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- Figure 63: Interest in carbonated soft drink innovations, by gender, January 2021
- Take innovation aim at 18-34s
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- Figure 64: Interest in carbonated soft drink innovations, by age, January 2021
- Innovation comes at a price that affluent consumers may be ready to pay
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- Figure 65: Interest in carbonated soft drink innovations, by household income, January 2021
- Parents embrace innovation in flavor and functionality
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- Figure 66: Interest in carbonated soft drink innovations, by parental status, January 2021
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
- Methodology
Appendix – Market Size
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- Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of regular carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of regular carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of diet carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of diet carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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Appendix – Retail Channels
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- Figure 73: Total US retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by channel, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 74: US supermarket sales of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 75: US convenience store sales of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2015-20
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- Figure 76: US sales of carbonated soft drinks through other retail channels, at current prices, 2015-20
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