Even before the pandemic, the largest non-alcoholic beverage category, CSDs, was showing signs of renewal finding modest growth that has top $39B. This growth was largely fueled by innovation that worked to lessen a not so healthy reputation. Changes to daily routines including working and learning from home disrupted meal and drink time have created new opportunities for packaged CSDs and brands have leaned into innovation to help sustain this momentum. Still, the hallmarks of the category reflect its dominance and its growth in 2020: products that deliver on enjoyment, refreshment and nostalgia. While the non-alcoholic beverage industry grows increasingly crowded, brands can remind consumers of why they love CSDs while using innovation to keep consumers treating themselves with CSDs.

• The impact of COVID-19 on carbonated soft drinks

• CSD competitive landscape and occasions

• Changes in CSD purchase

• Interest in CSD sweeteners

• Interest in CSD innovation

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions:

Carbonated soft drinks are non-alcoholic beverages that have added carbonation. This includes beverages with a range of flavors, sweeteners and colors. Colas, non-colas, craft, natural and stevia-sweetened CSDs are combined in the regular and diet segments.

This Report divides the market into two segments:

• Regular carbonated soft drinks, including full-calorie and reduced/mid-calorie soft drinks

• Diet or zero-calorie soft drinks.

Excluded from the market data shared in this Report are flavored and unflavored sparkling water brands such as Perrier, carbonated energy drinks such as Red Bull, carbonated juice drinks, certain hybrid drinks (eg Bai Bubbles) and alcoholic beverages. Sales of CSDs through fountains and foodservice (restaurants, cafeterias, food trucks) are also excluded.

Vending machine sales are excluded from the market size; past years’ Reports market sizes vary from this year’s due to this exclusion.

In this report, carbonated soft drink consumers are bucketed into three groups defined as:

• High frequency drinkers: Consumers who drink CSDs on a daily basis or a few times a week

• Medium frequency drinker: once a week OR a few times a month

• Low frequency drinker: once a month OR less than once a month

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on CBO estimates released on February 1, 2021. The CBO’s previous forecast for US GDP to fall by 5.8% in 2020 was revised after a stronger second half of the year, and the updated estimate indicates negative 3.5% GDP for the year. The CBO forecast for GDP to grow by 4.6% in 2021 and unemployment to continue to fall to average 5.7% for the year do not take into consideration the impact of the $1.9 trillion economic relief package, which is expected to further boost growth.

The first COVID-19 case was confirmed in the US in January 2020. It was declared a global health pandemic and national emergency in early March 2020. Across the US, various stay-at-home orders were put in place in Spring 2020, and nonessential businesses and school districts closed or shifted to remote operations. The remainder of 2020 saw rolling orders, as states and local governments relaxed and reinforced guidelines according to the spread of the virus in each region.

Vaccine rollout began in December, 2020. Based on current estimates of vaccine production and distribution, the US could reach herd immunity, with 70-85% of the population vaccinated, by late Summer to early Fall 2021.  Mintel anticipates business operations in the US will remain in a state of flux through 2021 as the vaccine is widely administered.