Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods
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- Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 1 April 2021
- The market
- Cakes and sweet bakes sales don’t enjoy same uplift as overall food retail in 2020
- Slow growth ahead as the market faces health and competitive pressures
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- Figure 2: Market size and forecast for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods market, 2015-25
- Celebration cakes hit by COVID-19 restrictions, growth in small cakes stalls
- New government strategy aims to get people eating healthier
- Companies and brands
- Mr Kipling extends lead in cakes, Warburtons benefits from at-home breakfasts
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- Figure 3: Leading brands’ sales in the UK retail cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2019/20-2020/21
- Ad spend declines by more than a fifth in 2020
- One in ten launches carry vegan claim
- Brands explore new extensions
- The consumer
- Four in five people eat cakes and sweet baked goods, usage drops slightly in 2020
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- Figure 4: Usage of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, at least once a month and less than once a month, December 2019 and December 2020
- Supermarkets are still the dominant channel, one in four buy online
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- Figure 5: In-store and online purchasing locations of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2020
- Presentation is key for occasion cakes
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- Figure 6: Desired qualities of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by occasion, December 2020
- Consumers are keen for cakes and bakes to keep for longer
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- Figure 7: Behaviours related to cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2020
- Brands need to respond to home baking
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- Figure 8: Consumers more likely to bake cakes than buy them, by age, December 2020
- Cakes and sweet bakes have work to do amid keener spotlight on health
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- Figure 9: Attitudes towards cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2020
Issues and Insights
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- Cakes and sweet bakes have work to do as COVID-19 shines a spotlight on health
- Home baking fuelled by COVID-19 presents a challenge and an opportunity
- Cakes and sweet bakes under-index online
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Cakes and sweet bakes sales don’t enjoy same uplift as overall food retail in 2020
- Slow growth ahead as the market faces health and competitive pressures
- Celebration cakes hit by COVID-19 restrictions, growth in small cakes stalls
- New government strategy aims to get people eating healthier
Market Size and Forecast
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- COVID-19 sees sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods stall
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- Figure 10: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 1 April 2021
- Cakes and sweet bakes sales don’t enjoy same uplift as overall food retail
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- Figure 11: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2015-2025 (prepared 9 April 2021)
- Slow growth ahead as the market faces health and competitive pressures
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- Figure 12: Market size for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2015-2025 (prepared on 9 April 2021)
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 13: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-2025 (prepared on 1 April 2021)
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 14: Value sales of cakes and cake bars, 2007-12
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Celebration cakes hit by COVID-19 restrictions, growth in small cakes stalls
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- Figure 15: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by segment, 2018-20
- Crumpets extend their lead, waffles post strongest growth
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- Figure 16: UK retail value sales of prepacked sweet baked goods, by type, 2018-20
Market Drivers
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- Impact of the January 2021 lockdowns
- New government strategy aims to get people eating healthier
- Restrictions on promoting HFSS products to arrive in April 2022
- Sugar reduction in cakes falls short of PHE target
- Income squeeze could hinder the market
- Older age groups are less likely to eat cakes
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- Figure 17: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2015-20 and 2020-25
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Mr Kipling extends lead in cakes, Warburtons benefits from at-home breakfasts
- Brands explore new extensions
- One in ten launches carry vegan claim
- Ad spend declines by more than a fifth in 2020
Market Share
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- Mr Kipling extends its lead in cakes
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- Figure 18: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK retail cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2018/19-2020/21
- Warburtons benefits from more breakfasts at home
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- Figure 19: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK retail sweet baked goods, by value, 2018/19-2020/21
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Brands explore new extensions
- Sweet treats from other categories make further inroads into cakes
- Baileys and Irish Crème appear in cake bars and French Fancies
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- Figure 20: Examples of brand extension launches within cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2020
- One in ten launches carry vegan claim
- Vegan-friendly push from Soreen in 2021
- Supermarkets step up plant-based offerings
- BOSH! launches first range of plant-based cakes, OGGS expands with mini bites
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- Figure 21: BOSH! Ultimate Chocolate Cake, 2020
- Responsible packaging claims increase
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- Figure 22: Examples of cake launches featuring environmentally-friendly packaging, 2020-21
- Lower sugar and fat launches remain rare
- Less than 2% of launches make L/N/R fat or sugar claims
- Mr Kipling, Fibre One and Go Ahead lead the better-for-you charge
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- Figure 23: cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods launches with selected low/no/reduced claims, 2020-21
- Brands explore duo packs
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- Figure 24: Ambient cake launches sold in two-packs, 2020
- Own-labels develop hybrid cakes
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- Figure 25: Examples of hybrid cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods products, 2020-21
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Spending declines by more than a fifth in 2020
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- Figure 26: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by month, 2019 and 2020
- Premier Foods accounts for more than half of ad spend
- Mr Kipling supports Mini Bakewells and Signature Collection with OOH and press ads
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- Figure 27: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2019-20 (ordered by 2020)
- Fibre One encourages people to slow down in new year campaign
- Soreen promotes lunchbox loaf bars
- Brioche Pasquier targets families in TV ad
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 28: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, February 2021
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 29: Key metrics for selected brands, February 2021
- Brand attitudes: Cadbury Cakes and Mr Kipling are seen most widely as high quality
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- Figure 30: Attitudes by brand, February 2021
- Brand personality: Cadbury Cakes has the strongest fun image
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- Figure 31: Brand personality – macro image, February 2021
- Thorntons leads group on indulgence
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- Figure 32: Brand personality – micro image, February 2021
- Brand analysis
- Cadbury Cakes is the most fun brand in the group
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- Figure 33: User profile of Cadbury Cakes, February 2021
- Mr Kipling leads on good value
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- Figure 34: User profile of Mr Kipling, February 2021
- Thorntons Cakes thought of as most indulgent in the group
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- Figure 35: User profile of Thorntons Cakes, February 2021
- McVitie’s Cakes’ strongest connotations are with being accessible
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- Figure 36: User profile of McVitie’s Cakes, February 2021
- Bonne Maman most widely seen as exclusive
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- Figure 37: User profile of Bonne Maman, February 2021
- Accessible and fun are Mars Cakes’ strongest connotations
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- Figure 38: User profile of Mars Cakes, February 2021
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Four in five people eat cakes and sweet baked goods, usage drops slightly in 2020
- Supermarkets are the dominant channel, one in four buy online
- Presentation is key for occasion cakes
- Brands need to respond to home baking
- Cakes and sweet bakes have work to do amid keener spotlight on health
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- Rise in home baking due to lockdowns
- The popularity of home baking is likely to have been given a long-term boost
- At-home breakfasts support sales of sweet baked goods
- Health concerns prompt cutbacks on cakes
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- Figure 39: Reduction in usage of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods due to health concerns related to COVID-19, by age, December 2020
- Shopping habits continue to reflect unease
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- Figure 40: Selected consumer shopping behaviours since the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 8 January-12 March 2021
Usage of Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods
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- Usage drops slightly in all three categories
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- Figure 41: Frequency of use of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2020
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- Figure 42: Usage of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, at least once a month and less than once a month, December 2019 and December 2020
- Families and young consumers are core users
Where People Buy Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods
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- Supermarkets are the dominant channel, one in four buy from discounters
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- Figure 43: In-store and online purchasing locations of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2020
- Cakes and sweet bakes under-index online
- Some grocers explore alternative online approaches
- One in six buy from specialists
Desired Qualities of Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods
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- Presentation is key for occasion cakes
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- Figure 44: Desired qualities of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by occasion, December 2020
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- Figure 45: Examples of celebration cakes with eye-catching decorations , 2020
- Three in ten want pre-portioned evening treats
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- Figure 46: Examples of pre-portioned cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2020-21
Behaviours Related to Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods
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- Consumers are keen for cakes and bakes to keep for longer
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- Figure 47: Behaviours related to cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2020
- Over half show interest in ready-to-thaw cakes and sweet baked goods
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- Figure 48: Examples of no need to bake, frozen cakes and baked goods, 2019-20
- Brands need to respond to home baking
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- Figure 49: Consumers more likely to bake cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods than buy them, by age, December 2020
- Consumers open to branded cake mixes
- A place for better-for-you tips and cake mixes
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- Figure 50: Examples of Mr Kipling home baking products, 2020
- One in three see pies as a challenge
Attitudes towards Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Bars
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- Cakes and sweet bakes have work to do amid keener spotlight on health
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- Figure 51: Attitudes towards cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2020
- ‘Clean label’ can support better-for-you image
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- Figure 52: Griddle wholegrain pancakes with selected better-for-you claims on-pack, 2020
- Two in five think healthier cakes deliver on taste
- Portion control can help cakes to stay on menu
- Celebrations offer opportunities for small cakes
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- Figure 53: Examples of occasion small cakes, 2020
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 54: Cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods launches with a vegan/no animal ingredient claim, 2016-20
- Figure 55: Cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods with an environmentally-friendly or recycling packaging claim, 2016-20
- Figure 56: Share of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods launches with selected low/no/reduced claims, 2016-20
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Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecast methodology
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- Figure 57: UK retail value sales of cakes and sweet baked goods, best- and worst-case forecast, 2020-25
Appendix – Market Share
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- Manufacturer sales for cakes and cake bars
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- Figure 58: Leading manufacturers’ sales and share in the UK retail cakes and cake bars, by value, 2018/19-2020/21
- Manufacturer sales for sweet baked goods
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- Figure 59: Leading manufacturers’ sales and share in the UK retail sweet baked goods, by value, 2018/19-2020/21
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