Product shelf life came into sharper focus for consumers as the COVID-19 outbreak fuelled a desire to limit time spent in supermarkets, driving less frequent shopping. This has also meant keen consideration for the longevity of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods. Interest in keeping products fresher for longer and an openness to frozen products demonstrate consumers’ willingness to adapt and adopt new concepts and highlight areas for brands to explore.

The national lockdowns brought into force in January 2021 will have once again impacted the market, stopping social gatherings but fuelling breakfast and snack occasions in the home. This continues the trends seen in 2020, hitting the sales of celebration cakes while supporting demand for many sweet baked goods suited to these casual occasions.

Home baking has seen increased interest from consumers during the restrictions to combat COVID-19, as people found themselves spending much more time at home and seeking ways to pass it. The role of home baking as an affordable pastime will see it pose competition to the cake, cake bars and sweet baked goods market even once restrictions lift, as the economic impact of the outbreak continues to be felt. Even beyond this, the expected uptick in home working and the skills gained by home bakers are predicted to see this activity gain an enduring boost.

However, home baking may also be an area of opportunity for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods brands given consumer interest in branded cake mixes. Additionally, concerns around health and interest in healthier products, combined with the low level of NPD in this space, point to better-for-you variants as an area warranting further attention in the cake, cake bar and sweet baked goods market. The UK government’s renewed commitment to encouraging healthier diets and scrutiny of HFSS food provides additional impetus to this need for action.

• The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behaviour and market performance.

• The market’s standing in relation to increasing concern around health and healthy eating.

• Desired qualities sought by consumers in cake, cake bars and sweet baked goods for various occasions.

• How much of a challenge home baking presents to the market.

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. Rapidly rising case numbers led to the first national lockdown, starting on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to reopen, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a month-long lockdown from 5 November and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions.

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions further in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown.

On 22 February, Boris Johnson announced the roadmap to an easing of restrictions in England, starting with the reopening of schools on 8 March, followed by easing of restrictions on outdoor gatherings on 29 March, and with a hoped end to all restrictions by 21 June. The Welsh and Scottish governments also gave more details on their plans to ease restrictions, with both nations taking a slightly more cautious approach to the one planned for England.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and with the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines licenced for use in the UK, the government aims to offer a first dose of the vaccine to 32 million people by mid-April.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its March 2021 Economic and Fiscal Outlook Report. After the fall of 9.9% over the course of 2020, the scenario suggests that UK GDP will grow by 4% in 2021 and 7.3% in 2022.

GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until the second quarter of 2022, although this is six months earlier than the OBR forecast in November 2020, mainly because of the faster than expected rollout of vaccines.

Unemployment is expected to peak at 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021. As with GDP, this is more positive than the OBR’s November forecast, but the OBR does raise the prospect of long-term scarring on employment, especially in the more exposed retail and hospitality sectors.

This Report examines the UK retail market for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods. The market size includes sales through all retail channels including direct to consumer. Mintel defines the market as comprising packaged (wrapped) cakes and sweet baked goods which are kept at ambient temperatures, as well as cakes from in-store bakeries and bakery shops.

The market can be broadly segmented into small cakes, large cakes, celebration cakes, occasion cakes and puddings, and sweet baked goods.

‘Small cakes’ include individual cakes either sold singly or as multipacks or assortments, including seasonal and occasion variants. These include slices, small pies and tarts, mini rolls, cupcakes, bites, cake bars, flapjacks and other small cakes.

‘Large cakes’ include cakes intended for sharing. These include whole cakes, slab cakes, loaf cakes, Swiss rolls, sponge cakes, large pies and tarts, and tray bakes.

‘Sweet baked goods’ include crumpets, croissants, brioche loaves and rolls, pains au chocolat and raisins, American muffins, scones, hot cross buns/loaves, malt and fruit loaves, pancakes, teacakes, doughnuts, English muffins, waffles, fruit buns, crêpes, potato cakes/scones, Irish bread, iced buns, farls, sweet bread/buns and pikelets.

The market size excludes frozen cakes/pastries, chilled desserts such as fruit sorbets and cheesecakes, cake mixes or baking ingredients and biscuits. It also excludes sales via catering or foodservice establishments, ie those sold in cafés, restaurants etc; however, references and comparisons to these sectors may be made where relevant.