Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
- COVID-19 drives 2020 declines, but market poised for a rebound
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of snack, nutrition, and performance bars, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on snack, nutrition and performance bars
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on snack, nutrition and performance bars, march 2021
- Challenges
- Pandemic leads to less on-the-go consumption
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- Figure 3: Reasons for decreasing bar consumption, January 2021
- Value is a central challenge, especially as consumer confidence has dipped
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- Figure 4: Barriers to purchase, January 2021
- Opportunities
- Bars can serve a range of functions across diverse occasions
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- Figure 5: Role of bars in overall diet, January 2021
- Growth opportunities exist for base of engaged consumers
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- Figure 6: Increased bar consumption, on the basis of gender, age, HH income and parental status, January 2021
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Bar sales fall in 2020, but are forecast to rebound in 2021
- Snack bars buffer larger category loses; specialized bars struggle
- Demographic trends promise growth and suggest opportunities
- COVID-19 makes healthy eating and immunity a priority
- Bars to support plant-based diets, holistic health and sustainable practices
Market Size and Forecast
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- Dollar sales dip during the pandemic, but poised for a rebound
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of snack, nutrition, and performance bars, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of snack, nutrition, and performance bars, at current prices, 2015-25
- Key macroeconomic indicators
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- Figure 9: US. Unemployment, April 2018–September 2020
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- Figure 10: U.S. Consumer Confidence, January 2019–January 2021
- Impact of COVID-19 snack, nutrition and performance bars
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- Figure 11: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on snack, nutrition and performance bars, march 2021
- Opportunities and Challenges
- Lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- COVID-19: US context
- Learnings from the last recession
Segment Performance
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- Snack bars tread water amid the 2020 storm, other segments struggle
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- Figure 12: Year-over-year dollar sales change of snack, nutrition, and performance bars, by segment, 2019-21 (fore)
- “Other” channels expand share, brands must boost ecommerce relevance
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- Figure 13: Total US sales of snack, nutrition and performance bars, by channel, at current prices, 2018-20
Market Factors
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- Snack demand remains high amid pandemic; bars struggle with at-home focus
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- Figure 14: Anticipated 2021 work situation, November 2020
- COVID-19 has made healthy eating a higher priority for 42% of US adults…
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- Figure 15: Change in priorities due to COVID-19, eating healthy, field date September 17-25 2020
- …brought attention to the severity of the obesity epidemic
- Demographic trends suggest opportunities and challenges
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- Figure 16: US Population by generation, 2015–25
Market Opportunities
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- Immunity support in demand in wake of COVID-19 pandemic
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- Figure 17: Percentage of functional product innovation containing an immunity support claim, 2014-21
- Expand functionality to support wider physical and mental benefits
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- Figure 18: Functional ingredient experience and interest, by generation, December 2020
- Focus on plant-based proteins
- A more holistic approach to wellness, with equity and sustainable practices
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- Figure 19: Clif Bar ad – Raising the Bar: CLIF Coffee Collection, 2020
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- MULO sales fall in all segments, snack bar resilience is seen
- Kind is the only leader to post MULO gains in 2020
- General Mills and Kellogg’s see bright spots with indulgent treats
- High-protein, keto-friendly and indulgent offerings draw consumer interest
Market Share
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- Among six major suppliers, only Kind posts positive MULO sales growth
- General Mills leads the market, but loses share
- Kellogg’s indulgent Krispie Treats and Nutri-Grain bars do well, buoy sales
- Clif Bar, PepsiCo, Simply Good Foods see sales dip and shares decline
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- Figure 20: Share of sales of snack, nutrition and performance bars, by company, 52 weeks ending November 29, 2020
- Sales of snack, nutrition and performance bars by company
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- Figure 21: Multi-outlet sales of snack, nutrition and performance bars, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Competitive Strategies
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- Snack bars appeal with affordable indulgence and fun, familiar tastes
- Kind bars sees sales climb in 2020 with focus on low sugar, simple ingredients
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- Figure 22: Kind ad – be kind to yourself, 2020
- Figure 23: Multi-outlet sales of snack bars, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- “Good value” and “fun” perceptions anchor snack bar appeal
- Performance bars struggle with value
- Performance bar leader Clif Bars continues to sponsor top athletes, promote sustained energy, and diversify offerings
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- Figure 24: Clif Bar ad – Sustained Energy Featuring Venus Williams, 2020
- Figure 25: Clif Bar ad – Just Keep Going, 2020
- Strongest performance bar sales are in protein-heavy bars
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- Figure 26: Multi-outlet sales of performance bars, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Challenges to nutrition bars similar to those hampering performance bars
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- Figure 27: Multi-outlet sales of nutrition bars, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- High protein, high fiber, and breakfast focus poised for a rebound
- Weight loss bars suffer from perceptions of being less natural, lower value
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- Figure 28: Multi-outlet sales of weight loss bars, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Indulgent flavors, plant proteins, and Keto focus find favor
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Two thirds of US adults purchase bars
- Concerns about price are a key barrier to those who don’t buy bars
- Protein and sugar content are top factors shaping bar choice
- Engaged bar consumers leaned in to the category during the pandemic
- Snacking remains prime occasion for eating bars
Bar Purchase
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- Two thirds of US adults purchase bars
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- Figure 29: Bar purchase, January 2021
- Bar purchase is higher among men than women
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- Figure 30: Bar purchase, by gender, January 2021
- Instance of purchase peaks among 25-34 year olds, drops among those 45+
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- Figure 31: Bar purchase, by age, January 2021
- Parental status is a key driver of bar purchase
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- Figure 32: Bar purchase, by parental status, January 2021
Role of Bars in Overall Diet
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- Bars play leading role as snacks, hunger satisfaction is key
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- Figure 33: Role of bars in overall diet, January 2021
- Younger consumers use bars for a wider range of occasions and benefits
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- Figure 34: Role of bars in overall diet, by age, January 2021
- Parents see bars as playing diverse, robust role in their family’s diet
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- Figure 35: Role of bars in overall diet, by parental status, January 2021
Barriers to Purchase
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- Value is a prime concern to those who don’t buy bars
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- Figure 36: Barriers to purchase, January 2021
- Price is stronger barrier for men, women are concerned about sugar
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- Figure 37: Barriers to purchase, by gender, January 2021
- Older consumers cite a range of barriers to purchase
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- Figure 38: Barriers to purchase, by age, January 2021
Bar Attributes of Importance
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- Protein and sugar content are top factors shaping bar choice
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- Figure 39: Bar attributes of importance, January 2021
- Men more attentive to protein source, women to sugar content
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- Figure 40: Bar attributes of importance, by gender, January 2021
- Concern with sugar, calories, artificial ingredients high among those 55+
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- Figure 41: Bar attributes of importance, by age, January 2021
- Parents are less concerned with price, more focused on ingredients
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- Figure 42: Bar attributes of importance, by parental status, January 2021
Change in Bar Consumption
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- A third of bar eaters increased their bar consumption in 2020
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- Figure 43: changes in bar consumption in the past year, January 2021
- Engaged users turned to bars during the pandemic
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- Figure 44: Increased bar consumption, by gender, age, HH income and parental status, January 2021
- Improved health profiles increased consumption
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- Figure 45: Reasons for increasing bar consumption, January 2021
- Pandemic compromises the value of bars
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- Figure 46: Reasons for decreasing bar consumption, January 2021
Bar Consumption Occasions
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- Snacking remains prime consumption occasion
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- Figure 47: Bar consumption occasion – Nets, trended, November 2019 vs January 2021
- Half of bar eaters turn to bars for afternoon snacking
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- Figure 48: Bar consumption occasion as snack, time of day, January 2021
- Breakfast stands out as key opportunity for meal replacement
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- Figure 49: Bar consumption occasion, as part of or replacement of meal, January 2021
Amount of Protein Sought in Bars
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- More than half of bar buyers seek protein in the 5-14g range
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- Figure 50: amount of protein sought in bars, January 2021
- Men seek more protein, with 54% seeking 10g-19g
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- Figure 51: amount of protein sought in bars, by gender January 2021
Amount of Sugar Sought in Bars
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- Low sugar bars are widely sought
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- Figure 52: amount of sugar sought in bars, January 2021
- Women drive demand for very-low-sugar bars
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- Figure 53: amount of sugar sought in bars, by gender January 2021
- 18-34s more tolerant of higher sugar totals
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- Figure 54: amount of sugar sought in bars, January 2021
- Parents, weighing diverse factors, may tolerate higher sugar content
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- Figure 55: amount of sugar sought in bars, by parental status January 2021
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of snack, nutrition, and performance bars, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of snack bars, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of snack bars, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of performance bars, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of performance bars, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of nutrition bars, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of nutrition bars, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of weight loss bars, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of weight loss bars, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 65: US supermarket of snack, nutrition and performance bars, at current prices, 2015-20 (est)
- Figure 66: US convenience store sales of snack, nutrition and performance bars, at current prices, 2015-20 (est)
- Figure 67: US sales of snack, nutrition and performance bars through other channels, at current prices, 2014-19 (est)
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