The number of consumers who make healthy choices when dining out has been growing in recent years, but the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a shift in ordering habits. The desire for comforting meals in uncertain times is driving down rates of both healthy and balanced dining while indulgent orders are on the rise. Additionally, lockdown orders and social distancing measures have led to more frequent ordering from QSRs, where consumers are least likely to seek healthy options. Still, consumer interest in healthy swaps, from plant-based proteins to low-carb veggie options, has held steady throughout 2020, and increased demand for better-for-you options is likely to continue moving forward.

• The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and healthy dining

• Recessionary and recessionary recovery impacts on healthy dining behaviors

• Customization is key for pleasing healthy diners with a wide array of preferences

• Sustainable practices increasingly important for consumers conscious of both physical and environmental health

This Report examines consumer attitudes, behaviors and trends toward eating healthy at restaurants. It explains how restaurants are menuing healthy items using the Mintel Menu Insights (MMI) database. It also examines how consumers feel about eating healthy while dining out and desired healthy menu items and attributes. To learn more about overarching trends in health and fitness, please look to Mintel’s Health and Wellbeing Reports. This Report builds off of Healthy Dining Trends – US, March 2020, along with iterations going back to 2009.

The first COVID-19 case was confirmed in the US in January 2020. On March 11, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global health pandemic; on March 13, former President Trump declared a national emergency in the US.

Across the US, state-level stay-at-home orders rolled out throughout the months of March and April, remaining in place through May and in some cases June. During this time, referred to as lockdown, nonessential businesses and school districts across the nation closed or shifted to remote operations, which meant restaurants suspended dine-in service and only sold foods and beverages for takeout or delivery.

During re-emergence, all 50 states have relaxed stay-at-home orders and allowed businesses to operate with varying levels of social distancing measures in place. The continued spread of COVID-19 infections has driven some states to slow down or reverse course on reopening plans, including the resuspension of dine-in service in select cities and states in the Fall of 2020. Mintel anticipates the US will remain in a state of flux through 2021, until a vaccine is widely available.

This forecast and subsequent Report assumes that:

• Consumer expenditure on hotels and restaurants is estimated to decline 8.1% in 2020 and recover to prepandemic levels in 2022.

• Personal disposable income will increase an estimated 7.4% in 2020 but is forecast to remain in the 2-3% growth range over the next five years.

• The US unemployment rate is estimated at 8.1% in 2020 – comparable to rates during the Great Recession – and it’s not set to recover to 2019 levels in the next five years.