30% of people agree that added health benefits make fruit juices, juice drinks or smoothies with high sugar content acceptable. That this is not higher demonstrates the continuing threat of the war on sugar to the category. However, the fact that health benefits are the top factor which would encourage people to spend more on these drinks, cited by 42% of buyers, should provide some solace for brands in this space.

The increased concern amongst consumers around immunity has benefited the fruit juice segment due to its well-established associations with high vitamin content. The nationwide lockdowns and local restrictions due to the pandemic in 2020 had a huge impact on the sales of these drinks through foodservice as well as on the go. The January 2021 lockdowns will slow the recovery of the market, and on-premise sales are not likely to return to any significant extent for several months.

Money concerns would prompt swapping from a brand to a cheaper version for 52% of people who buy and drink favourite fruit juice, juice drink or smoothies. This demonstrates the pressure that brands are already facing during the income squeeze brought about by the pandemic. Low brand loyalty will mean that brands will need to work harder in terms of NPD and promotional activity in order to stay on consumers’ shopping lists.

Knowing more about what fruit juices, juice drinks or smoothies go well with what foods would interest 54% of people who drink and buy these drinks. Additionally, with younger demographics also demonstrating a more moderate approach to alcohol than their older counterparts, positioning these drinks as an alternative to alcohol and a suitable pairing to a variety of meal types could help to tap into this interest and unlock new usage occasions.

• The impact of COVID-19 on the fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies market.

• Launch activity in 2020 and opportunities for 2021.

• Usage of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies.

• Factors that consumers would pay more for in a fruit juice, juice drink or smoothie.

• Consumer behaviours and attitudes related to fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies.

• Concepts of interest and appeal of sugar reduction strategies in fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies.

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January, with a small number of cases in February. As the case level rose, the government ordered the closure of non-essential stores on 20 March. 

A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to reopen, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July, and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a full month-long lockdown from 5 November and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions. 

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown. There is no defined end date for the lockdown, although the legislation regarding the English lockdown that was presented to Parliament extends to 31 March.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and with both the Pfizer-BioNTech and the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines licenced for use in the UK, the government aims to offer a vaccine to 15 million people by mid-February.

Much of this Report was prepared in December 2020, before the announcement of the January lockdown.

However, the content was reassessed and, where necessary, adjusted on 12 January 2021, in order to ensure that our analysis and our forecast expectations still hold true. We have also reassessed the content in the light of the progress of the vaccine rollout and the resolution of the Brexit negotiations.

Our core assumptions on the path of the pandemic had always included an expectation of severe disruption to markets and consumers’ lifestyles well into 2021, with a strong likelihood that the virus would still be with us even into 2022. Although the second wave of infections and subsequent lockdown puts us towards the negative end of our initial expectations, these developments are still broadly consistent with our previous assumptions.

Similarly, Mintel had factored in the likelihood that an effective vaccine would be available from early to mid-2021. The licensing of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines puts us slightly ahead of that assumption, but the challenge associated with rolling out a new vaccination programme to millions of people means that our previous assumptions are still broadly consistent with the new reality.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its November 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP will have fallen by 11.3% in 2020, recovering by 5.5% in 2021 and 6.6% in 2022. GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID levels until Q4 2022. The central scenario has unemployment peaking at 7.5% in Q2 2021.

The current uncertainty means that there is wide variation on the range of forecasts, however, and this is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q4 2021. Its more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP doesn’t recover until Q3 2024.

The second wave of infections and subsequent lockdowns means that the short-term prospects for the country are consistent with the OBR’s negative scenario, but this needs to be balanced against the fact that the vaccine rollout is ahead of even the OBR’s central scenario. Medium to long term, then, we are still basing our forecasts and market analysis on the OBR’s central economic scenario.

From the start of the outbreak, we have made the assumption that an effective vaccine would not be widely available until well into 2021. On 9 November, Pfizer and BioNTech announced highly encouraging results from trials of their vaccine, followed by similarly positive results from Moderna. This means that a vaccination programme may be brought forward, but a full rollout will take many months, meaning that Mintel is still making the assumption that we will be living with COVID for some time to come.

This Report examines the market for fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies in the UK through both on- and off-trade outlets.

Fruit juice and drinks can be described as:

• Fruit Juice: These must legally be made of 100% pure fruit juice. This may or may not include pulp and is often pasteurised to make it last longer. A typical example is Tropicana Pure Fruit Juice.

• Juice Drinks: These are drinks that contain less than 100% fruit juice and have added ingredients, mainly water but these can also include sweeteners, flavourings, colourings and/or vitamins. A juice drink must contain a minimum of 2% comminuted fruit, although most have a greater proportion. This sector includes ready-to-drink (RTD) versions of concentrated squashes, eg Ribena.

There are also some juices that contain a combination of fruit juices and vegetable juices and these are included in Mintel’s definition of fruit juices, provided they consist of 50% or more fruit juice. Coconut water brands like Vita Coco are included in the fruit juice market size.

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has defined a smoothie as a drink that is made with pure crushed fruit, but which also include a small amount of fruit juice or purée, yogurt, milk or soymilk, and is smooth in texture. The Report will also make reference to smoothie/juice bars, however, the focus is on the prepacked smoothies market and sales of unpacked smoothies are not included in the market size.