Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Consumers' planned back-to-school (K-12) and back-to-college spending, in current dollars, 2015-20
- Impact of COVID-19 on back to school shopping
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on back to school shopping, July 2020
- Opportunities and challenges
- Appeal to socially conscious consumers by supporting the greater good
- Partner with schools to gain credibility and improve the experience
- Offer consumers ways to reuse and repurpose
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Disruption to education created new needs
- Potential to evolve the seasonal calendar as learning environments evolve
Market Size
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- Disrupted routines resulted in more needs for school in 2020
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- Figure 3: Consumers' planned back to school (K-12) and back to college spending, in current dollars, 2015-20
- Figure 4: Distribution of consumers' planned back to school (K-12) spending, by category, 2015-20
- Figure 5: Distribution of consumers' planned back to college spending, by category, 2015-20
- Macroeconomic data
- High unemployment rates could drive interest in higher education, but cause parents to prioritize essentials
- Impact of COVID-19 on back to school shopping
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- Figure 6: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on back to school shopping, July 2020
- Lockdown
- Reemergence
- Recovery
- COVID-19: US context
- Learnings from the last recession
Market Factors
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- Number of households with children is shrinking, but growth opportunities may exist in higher education
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- Figure 7: Households, by presence and ages of own children, 2018
- Figure 8: Population by generation, 2014-24
- Unemployment and low confidence levels will influence where and how consumers shop for back to school
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- Figure 9: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-October 2020
- Diverse consumers demand justice; want brands to take a stance
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- Figure 10: Households with related children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2018
- Technology becomes an essential part of school, including shopping
Market Opportunities
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- Disrupt the shopping cycle with additional sales events
- Use technology to enable an interactive shopping experience
- Gaming experiences give parents and kids common ground
- Virtual shopping parties keep it social for students
- Trade-in options will appeal to thriftier, more resourceful shoppers
Competitive Strategies
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- The pandemic cast a shadow on back to school advertising
- Retailers shift the narrative to cater to new concerns
- Changes to messaging
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- Figure 11: Amazon email ad “the school year is here,” September 2020
- Figure 12: Target “tees” back to school ad, July 2020
- Changes to shopping
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- Figure 13: Walmart “however you go back” video, July 2020
- Figure 14: Best Buy “working hard to provide you with the tech to live your life at home” video, March 2020
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- The pandemic has disrupted consumers’ approach for back to school shopping
- Mass merchandisers are the go-to destinations
- Sales events will remain an important staple of the school shopping season
- Parents and students seek value in various forms
Consumer Trend Drivers Impacting Back to School Shopping
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- Value
- Technology
- Experiences
- Surroundings
Shopping Participation
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- The pandemic shifted shopping habits among both parents and students
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- Figure 15: Last year shopping participation, by parents and college students, November 2020
- Minimal threat to this year’s shopping participation, but approach will shift for some
- Moms’ thrifty behavior indicates some may not shop this year
Retailers Shopped and Method of Shopping
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- Mass merchandisers are stealing share from specialists and discount stores
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- Figure 16: Retailers shopped – Parents, November 2020
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- Figure 17: Retailers shopped – Students, November 2020
- Even during the pandemic, in-store was preferred
- Affordability drives Black parents to savings-centric retailers
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- Figure 18: Retailers shopped – By race and Hispanic origin, November 2020
Items Purchased and Planned Purchases
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- Items purchased
- Parents: despite disrupted routines, purchases faced few disruptions
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- Figure 19: Items purchased – Parents, November 2020
- Figure 20: Items purchased – Parents, November 2020
- Students: still shopping, but prioritizing essentials
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- Figure 21: Items purchased – Students, November 2020
- Figure 22: Items purchased – Students, November 2020
- Anticipated purchases
- Parents: intent to shop is strong across categories; 2021 will be a makeup for last year
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- Figure 23: Anticipated purchases – Parents, November 2020
- Students: intent to purchase is strong, but big-ticket categories face potential declines
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- Figure 24: Anticipated purchases NET – Students, November 2020
Changes because of COVID-19
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- Regardless of education level, school needs have changed
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- Figure 25: Changes because of COVID-19 – Parents, November 2020
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- Figure 26: Changes because of COVID-19 – Students, November 2020
- The older the parents, the more concerns with in-store shopping
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- Figure 27: Changes because of COVID-19 – Parents by generation, November 2020
- Changes to school situation shift purchases for college students
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- Figure 28: Changes because of COVID-19 – Students by area, November 2020
Behaviors and Attitudes toward Back to School Shopping
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- Parents and students have mixed sentiments for back to school shopping
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- Figure 29: Behaviors and attitudes – Parents, November 2020
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- Figure 30: Behaviors and attitudes – Students, November 2020
- Sales events = stock ups for parents and students
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- Figure 31: Select behaviors and attitudes – Parents and students, November 2020
- Multicultural parents will forgo brand for the right price
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- Figure 32: Behaviors and attitudes – Parents – By race and Hispanic origin, November 2020
- Figure 33: Target spotlight on Black owned brands, September 2020
- Parents seek expertise and quality
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- Figure 34: Behaviors and attitudes – Parents – By select demographics, November 2020
- Shopping is a social experience for full-time students
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- Figure 35: Behaviors and attitudes – Students – By select demographics, November 2020
Shopping Influences
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- Kids have strong influence on parents’ purchases
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- Figure 36: Shopping influences – Parents, November 2020
- Students are influenced by social media, indicating importance of social commerce
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- Figure 37: Shopping influences – Students, November 2020
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- Figure 38: Walmart shoppable content, July 2020
- Values can build stronger connections, and increase influence
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- Figure 39: Shopping influences – Parents and students – Select demographics, November 2020
Desired Improvements
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- All shoppers are looking for value-based improvements
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- Figure 40: Desired improvements – Parents, November 2020
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- Figure 41: Desired improvements – Students, November 2020
- Consumers desire features aimed to improve online school shopping
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- Figure 42: TURF analysis – Improvements, November 2020
- School shopping brings out women’s deal-seeking behavior
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- Figure 43: Desired improvements – Parents and students – By gender, November 2020
- Men seek seamless/frictionless shopping
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- Figure 44: Warby Parker at-home try on video, October 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
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