Disruptions to students’ learning situations caused by the pandemic created new needs for school, which contributed to sales growth but created lasting disruptions to the back to school shopping patterns. Consumers are still doing back to school shopping, and that will continue; but many are rethinking their needs and spending, looking for alternative ways to save, such as trade-in programs and sales events. Despite being a practical purchase, the social aspect of shopping for school remains important, and consumers want retailers to offer them experiences to interact with others, even if it’s virtually. Moving forward, expect to see more occasions to save throughout the year and virtual experiences, such as gaming, become a bigger part of back to school shopping.

• The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and back to school shopping

• How the recession will grow consumers’ prioritization of value and help mass merchandisers to gain share over other retailers

• The changing approach to back to school shopping

• The importance of the social element to back to school shopping

This Report defines back-to-school shopping as any shopping done in preparation for a school term. This may include clothing and accessories, supplies such as pens, pencils, paper and electronics, and other items consumers purchase specifically for school. This Report explores two target audiences:

• Parents shopping for children in grades K-12 as well as for college students

• College students shopping for themselves

This Report builds on the analysis presented in Mintel’s Back to School Shopping – US, January 2020, 2019 and 2018. Note that the survey for this report was fielded in November 2020 and was directed at both consumers’ behaviors for the 2020-21 school season and their anticipated behaviors for the 2021-22 school year.

The first COVID-19 case was confirmed in the US in January 2020. On March 11, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global health pandemic, and on March 13, President Trump declared a national emergency in the US.

Across the US, state-level stay-at-home orders rolled out throughout the months of March and April, remaining in place through May and in some cases June. During this time, referred to as lockdown, nonessential businesses and school districts across the nation closed or shifted to remote operations. Schools being forced to end in-person learning created new needs for students learning remotely and/or in hybrid situations. Purchases of electronics and other items needed for remote learning grew as uncertainty remained heading into the new school year.

During reemergence, all 50 states have relaxed stay-at-home orders and allowed businesses to operate with varying levels of social distancing measures in place. The continued spread of COVID-19 infections has driven some states to slow down or reverse course on reopening plans. Even as stores reopen, some consumers remain hesitant to shop on site, causing retailers to continue to evolve ecommerce capabilities. Across the country, plans for in-person or virtual learning vary for the 2020-21 school year. Regardless of where school is taking place, the pandemic continues to impact consumers’ needs and approach toward shopping for school.

Mintel anticipates the US will remain in a state of flux through 2021, until a vaccine is more widely available.

The analysis provided reflects an estimated range of the market’s prospects in light of the upheaval caused by the COVID-19 crisis. Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on CBO 10-year economic projections released on July 2, 2020. The CBO expects US GDP to fall by 5.8% in 2020 and recover to 4.0% growth in 2021.Unemployment estimates from the CBO indicate a 10.6% rate for 2020, declining to 8.4% for 2021, which is slightly more positive than initial expectations (11.5% in 2020 and 9.3% in 2021), though expectations are that it will remain above 5% through 2025.