Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 2: Market share of total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, 2019-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on the foodservice industry
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- Figure 3: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the foodservice industry, December 2020
- Opportunities and challenges
- Americans don’t want to dine indoors anytime soon
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- Figure 4: Dine-in intentions, September 2020
- Takeout and delivery frequency rises, is expected to continue into 2021
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- Figure 5: Restaurant ordering frequency, April 2020 and September 2020
- Recession, COVID-19 exposure concerns spur far more plans to cook at home
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- Figure 6: Foodservice plans for 2021, September 2020
- Value proposition will be paramount in 2021
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- Figure 7: Foodservice plans for 2021, September 2020
- Engage consumers in new ways at home
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- Figure 8: Innovative foodservice concepts – NET any purchase and any interest, September 2020
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Foodservice falls behind during COVID-19 crisis
- Economic downturn compounds foodservice struggles
- Social unrest tops headlines, will spur restaurant policy changes
Market Size and Forecast
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- Foodservice industry won’t recover until 2023
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- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on the foodservice industry
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- Figure 11: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the foodservice industry, December 2020
- COVID-19: US context
Market Breakdown
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- FSRs lose market share to LSRs as a result of pandemic
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- Figure 12: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 13: Market share of total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, 2019-25
Market Factors
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- Grocery business booms, and retail foodservice threat grows
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- Figure 14: Prepared food purchasing frequency year over year, September 2020
- Dining out will continue to suffer during economic downturn
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- Figure 15: Restaurant spending and financial situation, November 2020
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- Figure 16: US restaurant sales, at current prices, 2008-13
- Most all Americans who WFH in 2020 expect to continue to in 2021
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- Figure 17: COVID-19 employment status, September 2020
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- Figure 18: Work expectations for 2021, September 2020
- Indoor dining fears remain high heading into 2021
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- Figure 19: Comfort level dining inside a restaurant, July 15, 2020-November 9, 2020
- US social injustice leads 2020 news
Market Opportunities
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- Put value at the forefront
- Invest in Black business partners, employees of color
- Look close to home for menu innovation
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- Figure 20: Somekind Press promotes Los Angeles Sonoratown restaurant’s cookbook, November 2020
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Improve off-premise with technology
- Comfort consumers at home
- Save the planet
Competitive Strategies
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- The restaurant experience moves into the home
- Ghost restaurants
- Takeout/delivery-only storefronts and drive-thrus
- At-home innovation
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- Figure 21: Chick-fil-A email, “New Chick-fil-A meal kits are here,” May 4, 2020
- Robots reinvigorate restaurants
- Comfort foods drive sales
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- Figure 22: Panera Bread’s Facebook ad, October 2020
- Sustainability matters
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- On-premise dining hits a wall
- Deliver on different dayparts
- Get creative at home
Restaurant Visitation
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- Fast food recovers visitation faster than any other segment in 2020
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- Figure 23: Restaurant visitation, February-November 2020
Restaurant Ordering Methods
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- Dine-in begins slow recovery in latter half of 2020
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- Figure 24: Restaurant ordering methods, July-November 2020
- Boomers are returning to restaurant dining faster than younger consumers
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- Figure 25: Restaurant ordering methods – Any dined at a restaurant NET, by generation, July-September 2020
- Black Americans are not returning to dining at restaurants
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- Figure 26: Restaurant ordering methods – Any dined at a restaurant NET, by race and Hispanic origin, July-September 2020
- Consumers earning less than $50K in HH income are slow to return to dining
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- Figure 27: Restaurant ordering methods – Any dined at a restaurant NET, by household income, July-September 2020
Dine-in Intentions
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- Most consumers who aren’t dining at restaurants don’t plan to anytime soon
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- Figure 28: Dine-in intentions, September 2020
- Some young consumers aren’t dining at restaurants because they can’t
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- Figure 29: Dine-in intentions, by generation, September 2020
Restaurant Ordering Frequency
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- Consumers increasingly rely on off-premise options in latter part of 2020
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- Figure 30: Restaurant ordering frequency, April 2020 and September 2020
Foodservice Plans for 2021
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- Far more Americans plan on cooking at home in 2021 than in 2020
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- Figure 31: Foodservice plans for 2021, September 2020
- Millennials will drive restaurant recovery in 2021
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- Figure 32: Foodservice plans for 2021, by generation, September 2020
Dining Behaviors
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- Women typically make the household dining decisions
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- Figure 33: Dining behaviors, September 2020
- Gen Zs want to support minority-owned restaurants in 2021
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- Figure 34: Dining behaviors, by generation, September 2020
- White diners are most open to heated outdoor options in cold months
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- Figure 35: Dining behaviors, by race and Hispanic origin, September 2020
- Low income is a barrier to supporting independent restaurants
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- Figure 36: Dining behaviors, by household income, September 2020
Innovative Foodservice Concepts
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- Interest in restaurant meal kits remains high going into 2021
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- Figure 37: Innovative foodservice concepts, September 2020
- Figure 38: Innovative foodservice concepts – NET any purchase and any interest, September 2020
- Millennials crave catered celebrations
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- Figure 39: Innovative foodservice concepts – NET any purchase, by generation, September 2020
- Boost restaurant sales among Black and Hispanic customers with personal care products
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- Figure 40: Innovative foodservice concepts – NET any purchase, by race and Hispanic origin, September 2020
Dining Attitudes
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- Two fifths of restaurant customers are concerned over employees’ safety
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- Figure 41: Dining attitudes, September 2020
- Biggest delivery users may be more cautious of ghost restaurants
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- Figure 42: Dining attitudes, by gender, September 2020
- Resuscitate lunch business with young consumers and delivery service
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- Figure 43: Dining attitudes, by generation, September 2020
- Appeal to White diners with regionally inspired menu options
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- Figure 44: Dining attitudes, by race and Hispanic origin, September 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 45: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 46: Total US sales and forecast of limited-service eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 47: Total US sales and forecast of full-service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 48: Restaurant ordering methods, September 2020
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- Figure 49: Dine-in intentions, by household income, September 2020
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- Figure 50: COVID-19 behaviors, April 16, 2020-November 9, 2020
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