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The Future of Foodservice: 2021: Incl Impact of COVID-19 - US - December 2020

OVERVIEW
What you need to know 
Key issues covered in this Report
Definition 
COVID-19: foodservice industry market context 
Economic and other assumptions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
Top takeaways 
Market overview 
Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
Figure 2: Market share of total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, 2019-25
Impact of COVID-19 on the foodservice industry
Figure 3: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the foodservice industry, December 2020
Opportunities and challenges 
Americans don’t want to dine indoors anytime soon
Figure 4: Dine-in intentions, September 2020
Takeout and delivery frequency rises, is expected to continue into 2021 
Figure 5: Restaurant ordering frequency, April 2020 and September 2020
Recession, COVID-19 exposure concerns spur far more plans to cook at home
Figure 6: Foodservice plans for 2021, September 2020
Value proposition will be paramount in 2021
Figure 7: Foodservice plans for 2021, September 2020
Engage consumers in new ways at home
Figure 8: Innovative foodservice concepts – NET any purchase and any interest, September 2020
THE MARKET – KEY TAKEAWAYS 
Foodservice falls behind during COVID-19 crisis
Economic downturn compounds foodservice struggles
Social unrest tops headlines, will spur restaurant policy changes
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST 
Foodservice industry won’t recover until 2023
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
Impact of COVID-19 on the foodservice industry
Figure 11: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the foodservice industry, December 2020
COVID-19: US context
MARKET BREAKDOWN
FSRs lose market share to LSRs as a result of pandemic
Figure 12: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
Figure 13: Market share of total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, 2019-25
MARKET FACTORS
Grocery business booms, and retail foodservice threat grows
Figure 14: Prepared food purchasing frequency year over year, September 2020
Dining out will continue to suffer during economic downturn
Figure 15: Restaurant spending and financial situation, November 2020
Figure 16: US restaurant sales, at current prices, 2008-13
Most all Americans who WFH in 2020 expect to continue to in 2021
Figure 17: COVID-19 employment status, September 2020
Figure 18: Work expectations for 2021, September 2020
Indoor dining fears remain high heading into 2021
Figure 19: Comfort level dining inside a restaurant, July 15, 2020-November 9, 2020
US social injustice leads 2020 news
MARKET OPPORTUNITIES 
Put value at the forefront
Invest in Black business partners, employees of color
Look close to home for menu innovation 
Figure 20: Somekind Press promotes Los Angeles Sonoratown restaurant’s cookbook, November 2020
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – KEY TAKEAWAYS 
Improve off-premise with technology
Comfort consumers at home
Save the planet
COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES
The restaurant experience moves into the home
Ghost restaurants 
Takeout/delivery-only storefronts and drive-thrus
At-home innovation 
Figure 21: Chick-fil-A email, “New Chick-fil-A meal kits are here,” May 4, 2020
Robots reinvigorate restaurants 
Comfort foods drive sales 
Figure 22: Panera Bread’s Facebook ad, October 2020
Sustainability matters
THE CONSUMER – KEY TAKEAWAYS 
On-premise dining hits a wall
Deliver on different dayparts
Get creative at home
RESTAURANT VISITATION 
Fast food recovers visitation faster than any other segment in 2020
Figure 23: Restaurant visitation, February-November 2020
RESTAURANT ORDERING METHODS
Dine-in begins slow recovery in latter half of 2020 
Figure 24: Restaurant ordering methods, July-November 2020
Boomers are returning to restaurant dining faster than younger consumers
Figure 25: Restaurant ordering methods – Any dined at a restaurant NET, by generation, July-September 2020
Black Americans are not returning to dining at restaurants
Figure 26: Restaurant ordering methods – Any dined at a restaurant NET, by race and Hispanic origin, July-September 2020
Consumers earning less than $50K in HH income are slow to return to dining 
Figure 27: Restaurant ordering methods – Any dined at a restaurant NET, by household income, July-September 2020
DINE-IN INTENTIONS
Most consumers who aren’t dining at restaurants don’t plan to anytime soon
Figure 28: Dine-in intentions, September 2020
Some young consumers aren’t dining at restaurants because they can’t
Figure 29: Dine-in intentions, by generation, September 2020
RESTAURANT ORDERING FREQUENCY 
Consumers increasingly rely on off-premise options in latter part of 2020
Figure 30: Restaurant ordering frequency, April 2020 and September 2020
FOODSERVICE PLANS FOR 2021
Far more Americans plan on cooking at home in 2021 than in 2020
Figure 31: Foodservice plans for 2021, September 2020
Millennials will drive restaurant recovery in 2021
Figure 32: Foodservice plans for 2021, by generation, September 2020
DINING BEHAVIORS 
Women typically make the household dining decisions 
Figure 33: Dining behaviors, September 2020
Gen Zs want to support minority-owned restaurants in 2021
Figure 34: Dining behaviors, by generation, September 2020
White diners are most open to heated outdoor options in cold months
Figure 35: Dining behaviors, by race and Hispanic origin, September 2020
Low income is a barrier to supporting independent restaurants 
Figure 36: Dining behaviors, by household income, September 2020
INNOVATIVE FOODSERVICE CONCEPTS 
Interest in restaurant meal kits remains high going into 2021
Figure 37: Innovative foodservice concepts, September 2020
Figure 38: Innovative foodservice concepts – NET any purchase and any interest, September 2020
Millennials crave catered celebrations 
Figure 39: Innovative foodservice concepts – NET any purchase, by generation, September 2020
Boost restaurant sales among Black and Hispanic customers with personal care products
Figure 40: Innovative foodservice concepts – NET any purchase, by race and Hispanic origin, September 2020
DINING ATTITUDES 
Two fifths of restaurant customers are concerned over employees’ safety
Figure 41: Dining attitudes, September 2020
Biggest delivery users may be more cautious of ghost restaurants
Figure 42: Dining attitudes, by gender, September 2020
Resuscitate lunch business with young consumers and delivery service
Figure 43: Dining attitudes, by generation, September 2020
Appeal to White diners with regionally inspired menu options
Figure 44: Dining attitudes, by race and Hispanic origin, September 2020
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Forecast
Consumer survey data
Direct marketing creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 45: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
Figure 46: Total US sales and forecast of limited-service eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
Figure 47: Total US sales and forecast of full-service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER
Figure 48: Restaurant ordering methods, September 2020
Figure 49: Dine-in intentions, by household income, September 2020
Figure 50: COVID-19 behaviors, April 16, 2020-November 9, 2020

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