Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on beer
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- Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on beer, 24 November 2020
- The market
- Beer sales hit hard by the closure of pubs and bars
- Beer volumes will take time to recover to pre-COVID levels
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- Figure 2: Forecast of UK value sales of beer, 2015-25 (prepared 24 November)
- Lager extends its market dominance
- Focus on health expected to endure
- Over-55s warrant attention
- Companies and brands
- Continental lagers shine
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- Figure 3: UK retail value sales of the leading lager brands, 2019/20*
- Guinness and BrewDog grow in off-trade
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- Figure 4: UK retail value sales of the leading ale and stout brands, 2019/20*
- Low and no alcohol space continues to attract NPD
- Various brands move to strengthen sustainability
- Adspend sees dramatic drop
- Low loyalty, low willingness to pay more for mainstream brands
- The consumer
- Beer usage falls sharply in 2020
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- Figure 5: Frequency of drinking beer, October 2019 and September 2020
- Seven in 10 beer drinkers drink lager
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- Figure 6: Types of beer drunk in the last 3 months, September 2020
- Craft varieties drunk by four in 10 beer drinkers
- Fruit-flavoured beers are on the menu for one in four
- Low-/non-alcoholic beer warrants attention
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- Figure 7: Varieties of beer drunk in the last 3 months, September 2020
- Supermarkets are the main source of purchase; a quarter shop online
- Special offers most likely to encourage purchase
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- Figure 8: Factors most likely to prompt buying of new beer, September 2020
- New launches are needed to retain engagement
- Quality over quantity preferred by six in 10
- Beer is go-to evening-in drink for half of drinkers
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- Figure 9: Behaviours related to beer, September 2020
- Strong interest in brands supporting local pubs
- Direct-to-consumer sales an opportunity
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- Figure 10: Attitudes towards beer, September 2020
Issues and Insights
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- COVID-19 puts bigger emphasis on drinking beer at home
- Consumers slow to return to buying beer at pubs/bars
- Beer is go-to evening-in drink for half of beer drinkers
- Brands can tap into remote socialising
- Big opportunity for more brand extensions in beer
- New launches important for beer brands
- Flavour development helps to drive sales
- Fruit-flavoured beers are on the menu for one in four
- Dual approach needed to combat alcohol moderation trend
- COVID-19 puts a spotlight on health
- Low-/non-alcoholic beers gaining ground
- Quality over quantity preferred by six in 10
- Half see craft as worth paying more for
- Emphasis on localness and community will help to support sales
- Local beers have strong appeal
- Strong interest in brands supporting local pubs
- Direct-to-consumer sales an opportunity
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Beer sales hit hard by the closure of pubs and bars
- Beer volumes will take time to recover to pre-COVID levels
- Lager extends its market dominance
- Focus on health expected to endure; over-55s warrant attention
Market Size and Forecast
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- Beer sales hit hard by the closure of pubs and bars
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- Figure 11: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on beer, 24 November 2020
- Value sales of beer estimated to fall by a quarter in 2020
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- Figure 12: Total value and volume sales of beer, 2015-25 (prepared 24 November)
- Beer volumes will take time to recover to pre-COVID levels
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- Figure 13: Forecast of UK value sales of beer, 2015-25 (prepared 24 November)
- Figure 14: Forecast of UK volume sales of beer, 2015-25 (prepared 24 November)
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 15: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-24 (prepared on 27 October 2020)
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 16: Growth in value and volume sales of beer, 2009-13
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Lager dominates the UK beer market
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- Figure 17: UK value and volume sales of beer, by type, 2018-20
- Move to premium but declining volume sales in ales/bitter
- Retail sales boost not enough to make up for lost pub sales in stout
Channels to Market
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- Collapse in on-trade beer sales during COVID-19 outbreak
- Sales of beer through retail set to increase by nearly 31%
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- Figure 18: Value and volume sales of beer, by channel, 2015-20
Market Drivers
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- Number of factors hitting volume consumption of beer
- Alcohol moderation trend poses threat to beer sales
- COVID-19 pandemic means fewer people drinking beer
- Focus on health and saving money likely to increase
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- Figure 19: Reasons for limiting/reducing alcohol usage, April 2019
- Beer duties unchanged since 2017 but duty system under review
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- Figure 20: UK excise duty rates for beer, 2009-19
- Rising costs likely to push up beer prices
- End of Brexit transition period should have small impact on beer
- Government looks to support the economy and health
- VAT cut and Eat Out to Help Out aimed to support foodservice
- Government’s health push puts a spotlight on obesity
- Most people’s financial position still healthy or OK
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- Figure 21: Trends in how consumers describe their financial situation, December 2014-October 2020
- 35-44s an important group to target for beer brands
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- Figure 22: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2015-25
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Continental lagers shine, Guinness and BrewDog grow in off-trade
- Low and no alcohol space and sustainable continue to attract NPD
- Adspend sees dramatic drop, campaigns touch on COVID-19
- Low loyalty, low willingness to pay more for mainstream brands
Market Share
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- Majority of lager brands see double-digit increases in retail sales
- Stella retains position as number one lager brand
- Strong performances for continental lagers
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- Figure 23: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading lager brands, 2018/19-2019/20
- Guinness and BrewDog make big gains in off-trade
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- Figure 24: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading ale and stout brands, 2018/19-2019/20
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Major players continue to expand low and no alcohol offerings…
- Guinness launches 0.0 beer
- Tennent’s Zero moves into the off-trade
- Stella Artois joins low & no beer market
- Sharp’s creates the most widely available alcohol-free amber ale
- …while craft beer pushes innovation in the space
- The Alcohol Free Brewing Company makes its debut
- Big Drop pushes boundaries of alcohol-free flavour
- Beavertown introduces low-/no-alcohol craft beer range
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- Figure 25: Examples of low-alcohol and alcohol-free beer launches, 2020
- New product development gets fruity
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- Figure 26: Examples of beer launches with fruit and fruit products as an ingredient in the UK beer market, 2020
- Limited edition launches are far from limited
- Harvest Hells returns
- Beavertown promises a new beer every month
- Campervan Brewery launches Limited Edition range
- Beer brands come out in support for NHS and community
- Camden Town Hells rebranded for NHS heroes
- Freedom Brewery brings neighbours together
- NPD continues to explore sustainability
- Cardboard packaging becoming more commonplace
- Tennent’s to capture carbon emissions
- BrewDog goes carbon negative
- Surplus food continues to provide inspiration
- Major players refresh core brands
- Coors Original heading to the UK
- Budweiser Budvar range reveals new packaging
- Budweiser Prohibition axed for Bud Zero
- Grolsch relaunches in the UK
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Adspend sees dramatic drop
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- Figure 27: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on beer, by month, 2019 - September 2020
- Heineken recruits James Bond for Dry January
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- Figure 28: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on beer, by top 20 advertisers in 2019 and January-September 2020
- Molson Coors
- Carling continues to focus on localism
- Pravha launches first UK campaign
- Coors Light debuts first new campaign in six years
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- Figure 29: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on beer, by top 20 brands in 2019 and January-September 2020
- Guinness doesn’t want people to toast
- Carlsberg leads spending
- Budweiser revives classic ad to highlight togetherness
- Corona Extra wants to help people rediscover paradise
- Asahi Super Dry launches first global campaign
- Peroni focuses on the small things
- BrewDog opens virtual bar…
- …and various other breweries host online pub quizzes
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 30: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, November 2020
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 31: Key metrics for selected brands, November 2020
- Brand attitudes: Guinness stands out as consistently high quality
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- Figure 32: Attitudes, by brand, November 2020
- Brand personality: BrewDog seen as more fun than others
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- Figure 33: Brand personality – macro image, November 2020
- Guinness stands out as the most traditional brand
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- Figure 34: Brand personality – micro image, November 2020
- Brand analysis
- Peroni seen as more sophisticated than other brands
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- Figure 35: User profile of Peroni, November 2020
- BrewDog seen as the most innovative brand
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- Figure 36: User profile of BrewDog, November 2020
- Guinness stands out on authenticity
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- Figure 37: User profile of Guinness, November 2020
- Stella Artois has strong associations with quality
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- Figure 38: User profile of Stella Artois, November 2020
- Budweiser failing to stand out from other lager brands
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- Figure 39: User profile of Budweiser, November 2020
- Being refreshing and good value Heineken’s strongest points
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- Figure 40: User profile of Heineken, November 2020
- Carling has lowest level of satisfaction
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- Figure 41: User profile of Carling, November 2020
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Beer usage falls sharply in 2020
- Supermarkets are the main source of purchase, a quarter shop online
- Low-/non-alcoholic beer warrants attention, but so does ‘less but better’
- New launches are needed to retain engagement
- Beer is go-to evening-in drink for half of drinkers
- Strong interest in brands supporting local pubs
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- Confidence about visiting restaurants/bars was slowly returning
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- Figure 42: Concerns about going to restaurants/bars indoors, 10-19 November 2020
- Four in 10 try to limit time in-store; a boost to online shopping
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- Figure 43: Selected behaviour changes since the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 10-19 November 2020
- COVID-19 pandemic expected to heighten focus on sustainability
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- Figure 44: Changes in the environment being seen as a priority since the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender and age, 8-19 October 2020
- Greater focus on eating healthily likely to feed through to drinking
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- Figure 45: Changes in eating healthily being seen as a priority since the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender and age, 8-19 October 2020
Usage of Beer
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- 63% drink beer; 38% at least weekly
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- Figure 46: Frequency of drinking beer, October 2019 and September 2020
- 25-44 males are core beer drinkers
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- Figure 47: Drinking beer once a week or more often, by gender and age, September 2020
Changes to Beer Drinking Since COVID-19 Outbreak
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- 59% of drinkers are drinking the same amount of beer; equal numbers report drinking more and less
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- Figure 48: Changes to amount of beer drunk since the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, September 2020
Types of Beer Drunk
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- Seven in 10 beer drinkers drink lager
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- Figure 49: Types of beer drunk in the last 3 months, September 2020
- Small repertoire of types of beer drunk by most beer drinkers
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- Figure 50: Number of different types of beer drunk in the last 3 months, September 2020
Varieties of Beer Drunk
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- Craft varieties drunk by four in 10 beer drinkers
- Fruit-flavoured beers are on the menu for one in four
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- Figure 51: Varieties of beer drunk in the last 3 months, September 2020
- A quarter of beer drinkers drink low-/non-alcoholic beer
- More large brands enter the segment
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- Figure 52: Usage of low-/non-alcoholic beer, by age, September 2020
Where Beer is Purchased
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- Supermarkets main source of purchase
- One in five buys beer at discounters
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- Figure 53: Where beer is bought, September 2020
- Nearly a quarter bought beer online
- Consumers slow to return to buying beer at pubs/bars
Factors Most Influencing Choice of New Beer
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- Special offers most likely to encourage purchase
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- Figure 54: Factors most likely to prompt buying of new beer, September 2020
- Flavour development helps to drive sales
- Local beers have strong appeal
Beer Behaviours
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- New launches important for beer brands
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- Figure 55: Behaviours related to beer, September 2020
- Low- and non-alcoholic beers gaining ground
- Quality over quantity preferred by six in 10
- Half see craft as worth paying more for
- Beer is go-to evening-in drink for half of beer drinkers
- Brands can tap into remote socialising
Attitudes towards Beer
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- Strong interest in brands supporting local pubs
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- Figure 56: Attitudes towards beer, September 2020
- Direct-to-consumer sales an opportunity
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Share
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- Figure 57: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading lager manufacturers, 2018/19-2019/20
- Figure 58: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading ale and stout manufacturers, 2018/19-2019/20
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Appendix – Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Figure 59: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on beer, by month, by media type, 2019 and January-September 2020
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