Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on still, sparkling and fortified wine
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- Figure 1: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on still, sparkling and fortified wine, 27 October 2020
- The market
- 2020 halts inflation-led value growth
- Further inflation and weak volume sales ahead
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- Figure 2: UK total value sales for still, sparkling and fortified wine, 2015-25
- Figure 3: UK total volume sales for still, sparkling and fortified wine, 2015-25
- National lockdown accelerates the shift towards at-home drinking
- Rosé outperforms in booming still wine retail segment
- 2020 brings diverse effects on wine prices
- Companies and brands
- Mixed fortunes for leading brands in still wine retail
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- Figure 4: Leading brands’ value sales in the UK retail still wine market, 2018/19-2019/20
- Freixenet takes the lead in sparkling wine
- Better-for-you NPD continues in wine
- Launches with ethical proposition remain rare
- COVID-19 sees brands look to social media to drive engagement
- The consumer
- 2020 sees a small fall in wine usage
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- Figure 5: Usage frequency for wine, July 2020
- Two in three buy wine, red wine gains in 2020
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- Figure 6: Purchase of wines, by type, July 2019 and July 2020
- Growth in online, but in-store purchasing continues to dominate
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- Figure 7: Channels used for buying wine, August 2018 and July 2020
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- Figure 8: Locations for buying wine, July 2020
- Just one in four buyers would spend over £10 on wine; gifting attracts higher spend
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- Figure 9: Spending on wine by occasion, July 2020
- Price is important, but wines must deliver on taste
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- Figure 10: Buying factors for wine, July 2020
- Ethical propositions must be tangible
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- Figure 11: Wine drinking and buying behaviours, July 2020
- Small wine bottles can tap numerous current needs
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- Figure 12: Attitudes towards wine, July 2020
Issues and Insights
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- COVID-19 dials up the focus on health and price
- Ethical propositions must be tangible
- COVID-19 creates barriers and opportunities for new brands
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- 2020 halts inflation-led value growth
- Further inflation and weak volume sales ahead
- National lockdown accelerates the shift towards at-home drinking
- Rosé outperforms in booming still wine retail segment
- 2020 brings diverse effects on wine prices
Market Size and Forecast
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- Economic impact of pandemic to damage both on- and off-trade sales
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- Figure 13: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on still, sparkling and fortified wine, 27 October 2020
- 2020 halts inflation-led value growth
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- Figure 14: Market size for still, sparkling and fortified wine, 2015-25 (prepared on 18 November 2020)
- Inflation and weak volume sales performance ahead
- Post-Brexit trade agreements will be a key factor in price trends
- Volume sales to fall in 2021, then make some recovery over 2022-25
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- Figure 15: UK total value sales for still, sparkling and fortified wine, 2015-25
- Figure 16: UK total volume sales for still, sparkling and fortified wine, 2015-25
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 17: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-25 (prepared on 27 October 2020)
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 18: Growth in value and volume sales of still, sparkling and fortified wine, 2009-13
Market Segmentation
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- Rosé outperforms in booming still wine retail segment
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- Figure 19: Off-trade value and volume sales of still wine, by type, 2018-20
- British fortified wine hit by Buckfast’s decline
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- Figure 20: Off-trade value and volume sales of fortified wine, by type, 2018-20
Channels to Market
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- National lockdown accelerates the shift towards at-home drinking
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- Figure 21: UK value and volume sales of wine in the on- and off-trade, by type, 2018-20
- Inflation in both the off- and on-trade in 2020
- Mixed performance for different wine types in the off-trade
Market Drivers
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- Multiple factors affect wine prices
- Pound’s weakness and extreme weather drive inflation over 2016-19
- Exports of English wines rise in 2019
- COVID-19 restrictions in various countries have divergent effects on prices
- Brexit to cause complications for the wine industry
- Alcohol duties on wine frozen in 2020
- COVID-19 lockdowns put pressure on the wine sector
- European wine producers make efforts to shift the oversupply
- English and Welsh wine producers hit hard by closure of the hospitality sector
- Government intervention affects both the on- and off-trade
- New restrictions put on-trade’s recovery at risk
- Consultation on alcohol calorie labelling announced
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Mixed fortunes for leading brands in still wine retail
- Better-for-you NPD continues in wine
- Launches with ethical proposition remain rare
- COVID-19 sees brands look to social media to drive engagement
Market Share
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- Mixed fortunes for leading brands as still wine leaps ahead
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- Figure 22: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail still wine market, 2017/18-2019/20
- Barefoot and Yellow Tail NPD taps current trends
- Concha y Toro’s backing fuels rapid growth for Trivento
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- Figure 23: Leading brand owners’ sales and shares in the UK retail still wine market, 2017/18-2019/20
- Freixenet surges forward in sparkling wine
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- Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK retail sparkling wine market, 2017/18-2019/20
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- Figure 25: Leading brand owners’ sales and share in the UK retail sparkling wine market, 2017/18-2019/20
- Taittinger grows in struggling market
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- Figure 26: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK retail Champagne market, 2017/18-2019/20
- Figure 27: Leading brand owners’ sales and share in the UK retail Champagne market, 2017/18-2019/20
- Leading fortified wine brand Buckfast struggles
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- Figure 28: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK retail fortified wine market, 2017/18-2019/20
- Figure 29: Leading brand owners’ sales and share in the UK retail fortified wine market, 2017/18-2019/20
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Further activity in low- and non-alcoholic wines
- Brands flag up their wines’ lower calorie status
- Belle & Co launches non-alcoholic wine/green tea blend
- Alcohol-free mulled wine is a rare example of a seasonal L/N/R alcohol launch
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- Figure 30: Examples of alcohol-free wine launches, 2019-20
- Canned wine launches target picnic occasions
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- Figure 31: Examples of canned wine launches positioned as ideal for picnic occasions, 2020
- Origin Wines claims UK first with vegan and Fairtrade canned wine
- Blossom Hill releases canned version of its Gin Fizz mixed drinks
- Waitrose claims UK first with launch of wine in tube format
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- Figure 32: Waitrose launches wines in tube format, 2020
- New mixed wine drinks look to compete with gin and RTDs
- Leading brands launch wines with botanicals
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- Figure 33: Echo Falls Botanical Fusions Melon & Mint, 2020
- Wine seltzers are pitched as healthier alternatives to RTDs
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- Figure 34: Examples of wine seltzers, 2020
- Pre-mixed versions look to find new usage occasions
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- Figure 35: Examples of pre-mixed alcoholic drinks with fortified wine, 2020
- Still and sparkling wine brands cross over
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- Figure 36: Examples of wine brands diversifying their offering, 2020
- Retailers extend their own-label offering
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- Figure 37: Harvey Nichols India Cream Jerez Xérès Sherry, 2020
- New English rosé highlights its sustainable packaging
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- Figure 38: Folc English rosé takes craft positioning and makes sustainable claim, 2020
- Ethical claims are rare in the wine category
- Companies look to reduce their carbon footprint
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- Figure 39: Viña Sol Original 2019 White Wine, 2020
- Exploring alternative packaging materials
- Wine brands support conservation charities
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- Figure 40: Examples of wine launches pledging support for charity on-pack, 2020
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Retailers lead on advertising in 2019
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- Figure 41: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on still, sparkling and fortified wine, 2019-20
- M&S teams up with Fred Sirieux to promote its Classics range
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- Figure 42: M&S in-store display promoting their partnership with Fred Sirieux, 2020
- Trivento continues partnership with Discovery Channel
- Brands use social media to engage consumers during lockdown
- Yellow Tail focuses on connections with family and friends…
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- Figure 43: Facebook post by Yellow Tail as part of its ‘#RaiseAGlass’ campaign, 2020
- …and celebrates everyday triumphs
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- Figure 44: Facebook post by Yellow Tail as part of its ‘#EverydayMoments’ campaign, 2020
- Moët & Chandon portrayed as making at-home occasions more special
- Hardys’ virtual book club recommends ‘uplifting reads’
- Barefoot promotes exotic cocktails as sparking the holiday feeling…
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- Figure 45: Facebook post by Barefoot offering cocktail recipe, 2020
- …and also focuses on small victories
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- Figure 46: Facebook post by Barefoot as part of the ‘Virtual Cheers’ campaign, 2020
- I Heart celebrates ‘unsung heroes’
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- 2020 sees a small fall in wine usage
- In-store buying dominates, online grows
- Taste and price lead in wine choice, just 26% would pay more than £10
- Ethical propositions must be tangible
- Small wine bottles can tap numerous current needs
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- A fifth of users have drunk less wine since the COVID-19 outbreak…
- …but nearly a quarter have drunk more
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- Figure 47: Changes in wine drinking habits since the COVID-19 outbreak, July 2020
- Concerns linger about going to restaurants/bars
- Pubs and restaurants go from closure to restricted operations
- Two in five people feel uncomfortable visiting bars/restaurants
- Continued restrictions and squeezed incomes pose further challenges
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- Figure 48: Feeling comfortable about going to restaurants/bars indoors, 25 June-1 October 2020
- Two in five people look to limit time in store
- Tried-and-tested wines hold an advantage
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- Figure 49: Limiting time in-store and shopping more online and from local businesses since the start of the COVID-19 outbreaks, 14 May-1 October 2020
- Uplift in online shopping
- One in six resolve to cut back on alcohol post-pandemic
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- Figure 50: Changes to frequency of drinking alcohol since the start of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, by gender and age, May 2020
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- Figure 51: Resolution to cut back on alcohol intake post-COVID-19, by gender and age, July 2020
- Environment becomes a higher priority
Usage of Wine
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- Usage of wine dips
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- Figure 52: Usage of wine, July 2020
- Recession poses a problem for wine
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- Figure 53: Usage frequency for wine, July 2020
- Over-55s overtake under-35s as the most frequent wine drinkers
Purchase of Wines
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- Seven in 10 adults buy wine
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- Figure 54: Purchase of wines, by type, July 2019 and July 2020
- Purchase of red wines rises in 2020
- Champagne loses out
- Ageing UK population will benefit some wine varieties while hindering others
- 45% of people buy only one or two types of wine
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- Figure 55: Repertoire of wine types purchased, July 2020
Locations for Buying Wine
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- Growth in online, but in-store purchasing continues to dominate
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- Figure 56: Channels used for buying wine, August 2018 and July 2020
- Supermarkets lead on both in-store and online buying
- Focus on expertise should help to boost online specialists
- Three quarters of buyers purchase wine in-store from supermarkets
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- Figure 57: Locations for buying wine, August 2018 and July 2020
- In-store wine events can be promoted as a chance to sample international flavours without travelling
- Three quarters of wine buyers source from one or two locations
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- Figure 58: Repertoire of locations where wine has been bought, July 2020
Spending on Wine by Occasion
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- Consumers spend more on wine as a gift than for personal use
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- Figure 59: Spending on wine by occasion, July 2020
- Promotions to assume even greater importance during downturn
- Environmental claims can help to persuade people to pay more for wine
Buying Factors for Wine
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- Price is important, but wines must deliver on taste
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- Figure 60: Buying factors for wine, July 2020
- Opportunity for newcomers to succeed through promising a unique flavour
- Only a minority are influenced by ethical claims
- Need for companies to explain the importance of buying ethical wines
Behaviours Relating to Wine
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- Three quarters of drinkers stick to the same varieties
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- Figure 61: Wine drinking and buying behaviours, July 2020
- Comparisons with established favourites can help to boost lesser-known varieties
- Peer recommendations exert a powerful influence
- Eco-friendly options attract interest
- Need for companies to prove their commitment to sustainable packaging
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- Figure 62: International examples of wine launches with sustainable packaging claims, 2019-20
- Producers of bag-in-box wines should make more play of the packaging savings
- Sustainable claims are rare in wine
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- Figure 63: International examples of wine launches with on-pack details of companies’ environmental policies, 2020
Attitudes towards Wine
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- Champagne is widely seen as enhancing social occasions
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- Figure 64: Attitudes towards wine, July 2020
- Portray smaller Champagne bottles as ideal for small-scale at-home celebrations
- Highlight portion control aspects of small wine bottles
- Smaller bottles can help to encourage experimentation
- Focus on avoiding wastage to strengthen smaller bottles’ value associations
- Promote small bottles of premium wines using a ‘less but better’ message
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Purchase of Wines
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- Figure 65: Repertoire of wine types purchased, July 2019
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