Ethical claims hold strong potential to drive engagement in wine; 54% of drinkers/buyers would choose a wine that spelt out on-pack how it supports the environment over one which did not. Similarly, a wine with sustainable packaging would encourage 59% of drinkers/buyers to choose it. However, ethical aspects lag behind as influences on wine buying, signalling a need for companies to demonstrate the tangible benefits of choosing ethical products in order to drive sales.

The COVID-19 outbreak gave a boost to retail sales of wine while wiping out a significant chunk of on-trade sales. However, volume sales in both channels are liable to lose out in 2021 amid pressure on household incomes. Consumers’ heightened health consciousness prompted by the pandemic will also serve to accelerate the alcohol moderation trend.

Price rises are expected in 2021 as a result of the UK’s split from the EU being finalised, though details of the future trade agreement remain unclear at the time of writing. Price rises would serve to discourage volume sales owing to the price-driven nature of the category.

Small wine bottles have the potential to appeal amid the trend towards alcohol reduction through offering permissibility, with these seen as a good way to control the amount you drink by 39% of wine drinkers/buyers. However, small bottles’ weak value associations, seen as good value by 23% of wine drinkers/buyers, signals a need for companies to demonstrate to consumers how these formats offer value for money by minimising wastage and allowing a more accessible means to experiment, particularly with premium products.

• The impact of COVID-19 on the still, sparkling and fortified wine market and the outlook.

• Launch activity in 2020 and future product development opportunities.

• The competitive landscape in 2019/20.

• Changes in purchase patterns and channels.

• Consumer behaviours and attitudes related to the category.

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January, with a small number of cases in February. As the case level rose, the government ordered the closure of non-essential stores on 20 March. 

A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to re-open, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July, and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a full month-long lockdown from 5 November, and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions. 

If case numbers remain high, it can be expected that the lockdown will be extended in England, but even if the second national lockdown does end as planned on 2 December, the current plan is to return to the regional tiered approach that was in force before the lockdown, meaning that large parts of the country may still effectively be locked down. 

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its July 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP could fall by 12.4% in 2020, recovering by 8.7% in 2021, and that unemployment will reach 11.9% by the end of 2020, falling to 8.8% by the end of 2021.

The current uncertainty means that there is wide variation on the range of forecasts, however, and this is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q1 2021. Its more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP does not recover until Q3 2024.

This Report analyses the UK market for still, sparkling and fortified wines, including sales through both the off- and on-trade. Coverage in the Report is restricted to wines of fresh grape, produced from the naturally fermented juice of the grape and includes low and non-alcoholic varieties.

The on-trade includes premises with a licence to serve alcohol for consumption on the premises, mainly pubs/bars but also nightclubs, hotels and the hospitality sector.

Red, white and rosé wines are the three main types of still wines covered, with lower-alcohol wines (from 5.5% ABV), boxed wines and dessert wines also included here.

Semi-sparkling wine, defined as having a pressure of less than three bars, is included with still wines in HMRC data and is covered by this Report.

Champagne: including rosé and vintage Champagne, is produced under strict regulation within the tightly defined Champagne appellation of France. Within the EU, the term méthode champenoise is similarly restricted solely to the Champagne area.

Sparkling wines: including white, rosé and red, are known by a variety of terms, dependent upon the region of production. For example:

Cava – a type of white or pink sparkling wine, produced mainly in the Penedès region in Catalonia, Spain.

English sparkling wine – any sparkling wine made in England.

Prosecco – the name is protected under European law and can only be used for wine made from the Prosecco grape in the Conegliano/Valdobbiadene region of Italy.

Fortified wine is wine with an added distilled beverage, which is usually brandy. These wines differ from spirits made from wine as fortified wines have a spirit added to them. There are a wide range of styles, with the best-known being port, sherry, Madeira and vermouth. Also included are British fortified wines, Montilla and ginger wine.

Drinks made from concentrated grape juice, fruit wine, mead and cider and perry are excluded from this Report.