Appetite for clothing has declined dramatically since the COVID-19 outbreak and fashion has been one of the hardest hit of all retail sectors. During the lockdown, with people working and spending most of their time at home, there was little need for people to update their wardrobes and demand was limited to mainly loungewear, sportswear and casual clothing.

The virus has forced many consumers to reprioritise spending and buying new fashion items has moved down the list of priorities and led people to focus on necessities. Indeed, 34% of clothes shoppers are wearing older items in their wardrobe since the start of COVID-19.

Younger generations are the most likely to have cut back on buying clothes in the last 12 months due to concerns about money. Financial instability created by furloughing schemes and widespread redundancies across different industries have hit young people hardest. Young consumers aged 16-34 have typically been the main clothes buyers, updating their wardrobes frequently due to changing fashion trends. However, around a third of Younger Millennials have become less interested in fashion trends since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A second national lockdown from 5 November 2020 will test the main learnings of the first lockdown, which highlighted the importance for all retailers to invest in their online operations and to truly focus on connecting online and offline in order to create a seamless experience for the customer, giving them more flexibility in how they shop.

As consumers shop more online for fashion, combined with the ongoing closure of fitting rooms even when stores reopened, has accentuated the need for retailers to invest more heavily in more accurate online digital fit technology. This will help reduce the high rate of returns due to sizing issues and to improve the overall online shopping experience.

• The impact of COVID-19 and the second national lockdown on the clothing market.

• How consumers’ clothes shopping behaviours and attitudes have changed since COVID-19.

• Where people have bought clothes in the last 12 months in-store and online.

• How consumers have reacted to the reopening of fashion stores following the lockdown.

This update on the impact that COVID-19 is having on the market was prepared on 2 October.

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January, with a small number of cases in February. The government focused on the ‘contain’ stage of its strategy, with the country continuing to operate much as normal. As the case level rose, the government ordered the closure of non-essential stores on 20 March.

A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23 March. Initially, a three-week timeframe was put on the measures, which was extended in mid-April for another three weeks.

The Health Protections Regulations 2020 came into effect on 15 June allowing the reopening of all non-essential stores in England, as well as the mandatory use of face coverings on public transport. However, Leicester became the first city in Britain to be placed in a local lockdown on 29 June, after public health officials voiced concern at the city's alarming rise in COVID-19 cases. Non-essential shops were closed until 24 July and nail bars, outdoor pools and beauty salons were allowed to reopen in England from 19 August. In the rest of the country, pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers were able to reopen on 4 July.

From 24 July, it became mandatory to wear face coverings in shops and supermarkets.

During August and September, further local lockdowns have been ordered across the UK, particularly in the North West and North East regions, restricting movement and forbidding mixing between households.

From 24 September, it was ruled that all pubs, bars and restaurants in England must close at 10pm as the UK’s COVID-19 alert moved to 4, meaning transmission is ‘high or rising exponentially’.

From 16 October different regions of the UK have been placed in one of three tiers of restrictions. Tier 2 prohibits people from socialising indoors with anybody outside their household and tier 3 also applies the rule to meeting outdoors at hospitality venues.

On 31 October, the UK government announced a second national lockdown, in which pubs, restaurants, gyms and non-essential shops will have to close for four weeks from 5 November. Regions should go back to the tiered system after 2 December and unlike the first lockdown, schools, colleges and universities will remain open.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its July 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP could fall by 12.4% in 2020, recovering by 8.7% in 2021, and that unemployment will reach 11.9% by the end of 2020, falling to 8.8% by the end of 2021.

The current uncertainty, however, means there is wide variation on the range of forecasts, which is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q1 2021. Its more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP doesn’t recover until Q3 2024.

This Report examines the UK clothing and accessories market. It includes two streams of data relating to the clothing market: consumer spending and retail sales.

• Consumer spending forms our market size. This comprises of men’s, women’s and children’s clothing through all retail outlets. It includes outerwear, underwear and fashion accessories, but excludes footwear and jewellery.

• Retail sales form our sector size. This comprises of all retail sales through clothing specialists. It includes spending on non-clothing categories, such as footwear and beauty. It excludes retail sales through online-only clothing specialists.

To give further context to the market, we also provide data for clothing and accessory sales through specialist retailers, excluding footwear and other categories that are increasingly becoming an important part of the clothing specialists’ assortment.

The Report also includes an online fashion market size. This comprises of all online consumer spending on clothing and accessories. It includes sales through both specialist and non-specialist retailers.