Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of limited-service eating places* at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on fast casual restaurants
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on fast casual restaurants, November 2020
- Opportunities and challenges
- Fast casual visitation frequency is severely depressed in 2020
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- Figure 3: Fast casual restaurant visitation frequency year over year, February 2020 and August 2020
- Fast casuals should focus on dayparts outside of core lunch business
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- Figure 4: Fast casual restaurant occasions by visitation, by age, August 2020
- Fast casuals can beat FSRs and QSRs on value
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- Figure 5: Fast casual restaurant attitudes – NET agreement, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2020
- Innovative off-premise services will boost fast casual revenue into recovery
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- Figure 6: Fast casual restaurant innovative concept interest, February 2020 and August 2020
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- LSR sales drop in 2020 but are still outperforming FSRs
- Fast casual sales were outpacing QSR sales, but 2020 will look different
- Recessions benefit fast casuals
Market Size and Forecast
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- COVID-19 spurs sharp decline in 2020 LSR sales
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of limited-service eating places* at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of limited-service eating places* at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on fast casual restaurants
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- Figure 9: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on fast casual restaurants, November 2020
- COVID-19: US context
Market Breakdown
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- Fast casual growth outpaces fast food
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- Figure 10: Percentage share of Top 200 limited-service restaurant sales by segment, 2017-19*
- Figure 11: Top 200 limited-service restaurant sales and percentage sales growth by segment, 2017-19*
Market Factors
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- Great Recession spurred prior fast casual boom
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- Figure 12: Total US sales and estimate of fast casual restaurants, at current prices, 2007-13
- Indoor dining fears lessen but are still high
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- Figure 13: Comfort level dining inside a restaurant, July 15, 2020-October 5, 2020
- Higher unemployment rates among Black and Hispanic Americans could drive fast casual visitation
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- Figure 14: Unemployment rate, by overall, Hispanic and Black Americans, January 2007-September 2020
- Work from home growth strains fast casuals near and in office buildings
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- Figure 15: COVID-19 employment status, September 2020
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- Figure 16: Work expectations for 2021, September 2020
Market Opportunities
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- Fast casual food trucks make a comeback
- Think small
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- Figure 17: Chipotle email, “Support local farms from your couch,” June 30, 2020
- Reconsider menu item names, descriptions
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- The pandemic doesn’t benefit all fast casual chains
- Fast casuals make quick, large-scale off-premise investments
- Sustainability moves to the forefront
Fast Casual Restaurant Chain Sales
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- Shake Shack makes big gains in 2019
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- Figure 18: Leading 15 fast casual chains among Top 200 chains, 2018-19
- The pandemic churns out fast casual chain winners and losers
- Panera Bread carries on, while other bakery café chains falter
- Unlike fast food pizza, not all fast casual pizza chains are thriving in pandemic
Competitive Strategies
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- Fast casual chains quickly pivot to pandemic needs
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- Figure 19: Shake Shack email, “Attention campers: burgers are on us!” July 13, 2020
- FSRs continue to expand to fast casual formats
- Bowls blow up
- Sustainability initiatives forge ahead
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- Figure 20: Chipotle email, “Introducing Real Foodprint,” October 26, 2020
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Young consumers and parents are core fast casual restaurant customers
- Digital ordering and off-premise service become top-of-mind for fast casuals in pandemic
- Young, Black and Hispanic consumers drive breakfast and snack business
Restaurant Visitation
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- Fast casual recovery is slower than fast food, but much better than FSRs
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- Figure 21: Restaurant visitation in past three months, February 2020, August 2020 and September 2020
- Fast casual core consumers are young, parents and Asian Americans
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- Figure 22: Fast casual restaurant visitation in past three months, by select demographics, August 2020
Restaurant Ordering Methods
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- Diners slowly return to restaurants in latter half of 2020
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- Figure 23: Restaurant ordering methods, July 2020, August 2020 and September 2020
Fast Casual Restaurant Visitation Frequency
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- Fast casual visitation frequency takes a hit during crisis
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- Figure 24: Fast casual restaurant visitation frequency year over year, February 2020 and August 2020
- Men, young consumers, urban dwellers and parents drive increased fast casual visits
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- Figure 25: Fast casual restaurant visitation frequency year over year, by select demographics, August 2020
Fast Casual Restaurant Visitation Drivers
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- Digital ordering is the new top driver of fast casual visits as a result of the pandemic
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- Figure 26: Fast casual restaurant visitation drivers, February 2020 and August 2020
Fast Casual Restaurant Visitation Barriers
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- COVID-19 concerns are by far top reason for decreased fast casual visits
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- Figure 27: Fast casual restaurant visitation barriers, February 2020 and August 2020
Fast Casual Restaurant Occasions
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- Snacking at fast casuals has grown during pandemic
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- Figure 28: Fast casual restaurant occasions by visitation and interest, February 2020 and August 2020
- Youngest consumers continue to grow daypart variety at fast casuals
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- Figure 29: Fast casual restaurant occasions by visitation, by age, August 2020
- Black and Hispanic Americans drive breakfast and snack business at fast casuals
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- Figure 30: Fast casual restaurant occasions by visitation, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2020
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- Figure 31: Fast casual restaurant occasions by interest, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2020
Fast Casual Restaurant Factors
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- Online ordering and delivery are now a greater factor in fast casual dining decision
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- Figure 32: Fast casual restaurant factors – NET any rank, February 2020 and August 2020
- Men drive online ordering and delivery necessity
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- Figure 33: Fast casual restaurant factors – NET any rank, by gender, August 2020
- Gen Zs need fast casuals to be speedy
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- Figure 34: Fast casual restaurant factors – NET any rank, by generation, August 2020
- Black consumers care the most about fast casual delivery options
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- Figure 35: Fast casual restaurant factors – NET any rank, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2020
Fast Casual Restaurant Innovative Concept Interest
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- Happy hour discounts are strategic way to boost sales in recession
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- Figure 36: Fast casual restaurant innovative concept interest, February 2020 and August 2020
- Gen Z drives demand for fast casual drive-thrus
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- Figure 37: Fast casual restaurant innovative concept interest, by generation, August 2020
- Hispanic consumers crave menu innovation, variety at fast casuals
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- Figure 38: Fast casual restaurant innovative concept interest, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2020
Fast Casual Restaurant Attitudes
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- Fast casuals can win the value wars during the recession
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- Figure 39: Fast casual restaurant attitudes – NET agreement, part I, August 2020
- Figure 40: Fast casual restaurant attitudes – NET agreement, part II, August 2020
- Consumers would rather dine at FSRs than fast casuals during pandemic
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- Figure 41: Fast casual restaurant attitudes – NET agreement, February 2020 and August 2020
- Men are even less likely to dine in at fast casuals during pandemic
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- Figure 42: Fast casual restaurant attitudes – NET agreement, by gender, August 2020
- Fast casuals must do better job of marketing value to Millennials
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- Figure 43: Fast casual restaurant attitudes – NET agreement, by generation, August 2020
- Black and Hispanic consumers are core market to engage during recession
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- Figure 44: Fast casual restaurant attitudes – NET agreement, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 45: Total US sales and forecast of limited-service eating places,* at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 46: Total US sales and forecast of full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2015-25
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