Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Key issues covered in this Report
- Products covered in this Report
- COVID-19: Market context
- Economic and other assumptions
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on pizza/Italian restaurants and takeaway market
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- Figure 1: Expected impact of COVID-19 on pizza/Italian restaurants and takeaway/home delivery, in short, medium and long term, 20 October 2020
- The market
- Pizza and Italian market plummets in 2020
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- Figure 2: Total UK pizza and Italian restaurants market, value sales and forecast, 2015-25 (prepared on 5 November 2020)
- Takeaway sales expected to return to pre-pandemic levels as early as 2021
- Companies and brands
- Resurgence of price cuts
- The consumer
- Consumer confidence at a standstill
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- Figure 3: Comfort level of going out to eat, 23 July 2020 – 1 October 2020
- Majority of consumers have ordered a pizza/Italian takeaway since the outbreak began…
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- Figure 4: Participation of ordering pizza/Italian takeaway/home delivery, July 2020
- … But for many it’s an occasional treat
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- Figure 5: Frequency of ordering pizza/Italian takeaway/home delivery, July 2020
- Pizza and Italian food appeals to young urbanites
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- Figure 6: COVID-19's impact on frequency of ordering pizza/Italian takeaway/home delivery, July 2020
- The rise of snacking occasions
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- Figure 7: Types of items ordered for pizza/Italian takeaway/home delivery, July 2020
- Brands that maintain familiarity win in pandemic times
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- Figure 8: Venues visited for ordering takeaway/home delivery, July 2020
- Takeaway/home delivery consumer groups are also willing to dine-out
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- Figure 9: COVID-19's impact on likelihood of visiting pizza/Italian restaurants, July 2020
- Consumers satisfied with safety measures
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- Figure 10: Key drivers of satisfaction in ordering takeaway/home delivery from pizza/Italian venues, July 2020
- Craft pizza and pasta have stretch
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- Figure 11: Interest in pizza/Italian menu trends, July 2020
- Pizza and the “treat yourself” consumer
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- Figure 12: Attitudes towards pizza/Italian restaurants/takeaways, July 2020
- Pizza and Italian restaurant/takeaway consumer groups
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- Figure 13: Pizza/Italian restaurants/takeaways consumer segmentation – cluster analysis, July 2020
Issues and Insights
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- Review pricing strategies
- Get ahead of healthy offerings
- Improve diet-specific choices
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Opportunity to explore new distribution channels
- Takeaway sales will lead recovery
- “Discount mindset” likely to persist
Market Size, Segmentation and Forecast
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- Impact of COVID-19 on pizza/Italian restaurants and takeaway market
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- Figure 14: Expected impact of COVID-19 on pizza/Italian restaurants and takeaway/home delivery, in short, medium and long term, 20 October 2020
- Pizza/Italian restaurants/takeaways market plummets in 2020…
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- Figure 15: Total UK pizza and Italian restaurants market, value sales and forecast, 2015-25 (prepared on 5 November 2020)
- … but recovery begins in 2021
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- Figure 16: Total UK pizza and Italian restaurants market, value sales and forecast, 2015-25 (prepared on 5 November 2020)
- Takeaway falls slightly in 2020…
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- Figure 17: UK pizza/Italian takeaway/home delivery market, value sales and forecast, 2015-25 (prepared on 20 October 2020)
- … but returns to pre-pandemic levels by as early as 2021
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- Figure 18: UK pizza/Italian takeaway/home delivery market, value sales and forecast, 2015-25 (prepared on 5 November 2020)
- Dine-in sector will be slow to recover
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- Figure 19: UK pizza/Italian dine-in market, value sales and forecast, 2015-25 (prepared on 5 November 2020)
- Figure 20: UK pizza/Italian dine-in market, value sales and forecast, 2015-25 (prepared on 5 November 2020)
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 21: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2020-24 (prepared July 2020)
- Lessons learnt from the last recession
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- Figure 22: Value sales of the total UK pizza and pasta restaurant/takeaway market, 2008-13
- Forecast methodology
- COVID-19: Market context
Market Drivers
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- VAT cut could stimulate the eating out market…
- … severe restrictions put the brakes on recovery
- Pizza/Italian operators will need to respond to Government’s plan to tackle obesity
- “Discount mindset” likely to persist
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- Figure 23: Trends in consumer sentiment for the coming year, January-September 2020
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Zizzi launches pizza/Italian grocery range
- Resurgence of discounts
- Domino’s is still the 'Official Food of Everything'
- PizzaExpress is the place to visit for a special treat
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Bringing pizza/Italian to where customers are today
- Grocery range
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- Figure 24: Zizzi Restaurants' frozen pizzas
- Nationwide delivery
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- Figure 25: Pizza Pilgrims’ ‘Pizza in the Post’ meal kit
- Delivery-only brands
- Pop-ups in neighbourhoods
- Reaching consumers who are tightening spending
- Passing on VAT cut to customers
- Vouchers and discount codes
- Themed promotions
- Touch-free physical operations
- Accommodating to diet-specific needs
- Gluten-free
- Vegan options
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- Figure 26: Pumpkin base pizzas, by Firezza, March 2020
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Pizza and Italian brands cut traditional ad spend again in 2019
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- Figure 27: Advertising expenditure by selected pizza/Italian restaurants or takeaway/home delivery brands, 2018-20
- Domino’s is still the 'Official Food of Everything'
- Papa John’s UK pulls away from global brand
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 28: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, September 2020
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 29: Key metrics for selected brands, September 2020
- Brand attitudes: Domino’s tops all key performance attributes
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- Figure 30: Attitudes, by brand, September 2020
- Brand personality: Zizzi and PizzaExpress win on exclusivity and ethical attributes
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- Figure 31: Brand personality – macro image, September 2020
- Papa John’s needs rebranding to escape from lacklustre brand identity
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- Figure 32: Brand personality – micro image, September 2020
- Brand analysis
- Domino’s is most fun and accessible
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- Figure 33: User profile of Domino’s, September 2020
- 17% of Zizzi’s diners visit all the time
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- Figure 34: User profile of Zizzi, September 2020
- Papa John’s popular amongst those who are financially struggling
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- Figure 35: User profile of Papa John’s, September 2020
- Pizza Hut Delivery needs to differentiate itself from its competitors
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- Figure 36: User profile of Pizza Hut Delivery, September 2020
- PizzaExpress is the place to visit for a special treat
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- Figure 37: User profile of PizzaExpress, September 2020
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Post-COVID-19: three Trend Drivers of growth
- Wellbeing
- Value
- Experiences
- Craft pizza and pasta have stretch
- Pizza/Italian restaurant/takeaways consumer groups
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- Consumer confidence at a standstill
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- Figure 38: Comfort level of going out to eat, 23 July 2020 – 1 October 2020
- “Wendy Houses” for winter
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- Figure 39: Proportion of consumers who feel uncomfortable going to a restaurant/bar indoors, by age groups, 24 September - 1 October 2020
- Continue to deliver
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- Figure 40: Spending intent over the next month, 23 July - 1 October 2020
- Unwillingness to dine out
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- Figure 41: Spending intent over the next month, 23 July – 1 October 2020
Usage of Pizza/Italian Takeaway and Home Delivery
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- Figure 42: Participation of ordering pizza/Italian takeaway/home delivery, July 2020
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Frequency of Takeaway/Home Delivery
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- Pizza is often an occasional treat
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- Figure 43: Frequency of ordering pizza/Italian takeaway/home delivery, July 2020
- Important to keep core customers
COVID-19’s Impact on Takeaway/Home Delivery Frequency
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- Pizza and Italian food appeals to young urbanites
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- Figure 44: COVID-19's impact on frequency of ordering pizza/Italian takeaway/home delivery, July 2020
- Super users
- How to insulate the category from cut-backs
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- Figure 45: Key drivers of satisfaction in ordering takeaway/home delivery from pizza/Italian venues, by COVID-19's impact on frequency of ordering pizza/Italian takeaway/home delivery, July 2020
- Menu price adjustments
- Healthy offerings
- Diet-specific
Types of Items Ordered
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- Quick and easy pasta spirals down
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- Figure 46: Types of items ordered for pizza/Italian takeaway/home delivery, July 2020
- The rise of snacking occasions
- Frequent users help drive menu trends
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- Figure 47: Types of items ordered for pizza/Italian takeaway/home delivery, by COVID-19's impact on frequency of ordering pizza/Italian takeaway/home delivery, July 2020
Venues Visited for Takeaway/Home Delivery
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- Brands that maintain familiarity win in pandemic times
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- Figure 48: Venues visited for ordering pizza/Italian takeaway/home delivery, July 2020
COVID-19’s Impact on Dine-In Venues
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- Older consumers are most loyal
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- Figure 49: Repertoire of venues visited for ordering pizza/Italian takeaway/home delivery, July 2020
- Takeaway/home delivery consumer groups are also willing to dine-out
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- Figure 50: COVID-19's impact on likelihood of visiting pizza/Italian restaurants, July 2020
- Pizza/Italian restaurants excel at retaining satisfied consumers
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- Figure 51: Key drivers of satisfaction in ordering takeaway/home delivery from pizza/Italian venues, by COVID-19's impact on likelihood of visiting pizza/Italian restaurants, July 2020
- Three strategies to overcome consumers’ intention not to visit
- Improve diet-specific choices
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- Figure 52: Interest in pizza/Italian menu trends, by COVID-19's impact on likelihood of visiting pizza/Italian restaurants, July 2020
- Review pricing strategies
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- Figure 53: Key drivers of satisfaction in ordering takeaway/home delivery from pizza/Italian venues, by COVID-19's impact on likelihood of visiting pizza/Italian restaurants, July 2020
- Get ahead of healthy offerings
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- Figure 54: Key drivers of satisfaction in ordering takeaway/home delivery from pizza/Italian venues, by COVID-19's impact on likelihood of visiting pizza/Italian restaurants, July 2020
Key Drivers of Satisfaction
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- Consumers satisfied with safety measures
- Vast majority of consumers happy with their pizza delivery experience
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- Figure 55: Key drivers of satisfaction in ordering takeaway/home delivery from pizza/Italian venues, July 2020
- Promote and prioritise snacks – key driver analysis
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- Figure 56: Key drivers of overall satisfaction with takeaway/home delivery from pizza/Italian venues, July 2020
- Low-cost and healthy melds perfectly together – key driver analysis
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- Figure 57: Overall satisfaction with takeaway/home delivery from pizza/Italian venues, - key driver output, July 2020
Interest in Menu Trends
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- Calzone culture in the North
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- Figure 58: Interest in pizza/Italian menu trends, July 2020
- Craft pizza and pasta have stretch
- Encroaching on retail pizza market
- Sensory pizza/Italian experiences
- City dwellers seek healthful choices
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- Figure 59: Examples of frozen pizzas by FMCG brands, 2019-20
Attitudes towards Pizza/Italian Restaurants/Takeaways
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- Pizza and the “treat yourself” consumer
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- Figure 60: Attitudes towards pizza/Italian restaurants/takeaways, July 2020
- Future of hygienic experiences
- Re-imagining experience
- Re-defining value
- Consumers understand value of supporting local …
- … but also want a quality meal at an accessible price
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- Figure 61: Pizza and Italian restaurants – CHAID – Tree output, July 2020
Pizza/Italian Restaurants/Takeaways Consumer Segmentation
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- COVID-19 pizza/Italian restaurant/takeaways consumer groups
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- Figure 62: Pizza/Italian restaurants/takeaways consumer segmentation – cluster analysis, July 2020
- Typical characteristics of each group
- Responsible consumers
- Futurists
- Connoisseurs
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
- CHAID analysis methodology
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- Figure 63: Pizza and Italian restaurants – CHAID – Table output, July 2020
- Key driver analysis methodology
- Interpretation of results
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- Figure 64: Overall satisfaction with takeaway/home delivery from pizza/Italian venues - key driver output, July 2020
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- Figure 65: Satisfaction with takeaway/home delivery from pizza/Italian venues, July 2020
- Cluster analysis group definitions
- Premiumisation
- Basic needs
- Future experiences
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