COVID-19 significantly impacted consumer spending for 2020 summer/spring seasonal events, which totalled an estimated £1.4 billion, down 54.1% on 2019. Mother’s Day benefitted from falling just before the UK went into a nationwide lockdown and non-essential stores remained open, surpassing Easter as the biggest event for the period at an estimated £644 million. Despite this, spending was down from £1,060 million the previous year as people cut-back on-non essential spending in preparation for the upcoming lockdown.
Easter saw the biggest decline year-on-year (64.6%) as the event was celebrated in lockdown, with many celebrating the day apart from key family members, discouraging many from celebrating the occasion completely. As a result, Easter was worth an estimated £420 million in 2020. Father’s Day also saw a significant decline in consumer spending, down 64% to £381 million, and did not seem to benefit from pent-up demand as consumers emerged from lockdown. Instead, we saw a higher level of activity engagement from consumers in 2020 (37%) compared to 2019 (33%).
Seasonal events are particularly sensitive to macro-economic factors so the COVID-19 crisis, which will have lasting economic impacts on the UK economy and household income, is expected to significantly affect next year’s seasonal events. We expect to see consumers holding back on discretionary spend as the impact of the COVD-19 recession lingers on and Brexit adds further uncertainty to levels of consumer confidence.
However, despite low consumer confidence, retailers can encourage spend by offering affordable ways to celebrate events, with a focus on premium own-label food and drink ranges that can compete with out-of-home dining experiences. Retailers can also tap into the sense of goodwill heightened by COVID-19 during sensitive times like Mother’s Day and Father’s Day in 2021 for those who will be reminded of friends and family members who have suffered or passed away during the crisis.
Key issues covered in this report
The impact of COVID-19 on seasonal shopping.
Consumer behaviours related to seasonal shopping.
How retailers can encourage spend at seasonal events when consumer confidence is low.
How retailers can be more thoughtful during Mother’s Day and Father’s Day.
COVID-19: Market context
The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January, with a small number of cases in February. The government focused on the ‘contain’ stage of its strategy, with the country continuing to operate much as normal. As the case level rose, the government ordered the closure of non-essential stores on 20th March.
A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23rd March. Initially, a three-week timeframe was put on the measures, which was extended in mid-April for another three weeks.
The Health Protections Regulations 2020 came into effect on 15th June allowing the reopening of all non-essential stores in England as well as the mandatory use of face coverings on public transport. Pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers were able to reopen on 4th July, with many beauty businesses following on 13th July.
From 24 July, it became mandatory to wear face coverings in shops and supermarkets. Rules on travel remain fluid: from 10 July, travellers from more than 50 “low risk” countries no longer had to self-isolate for 14 days, but on 28 July the removal of Spain from the list of low-risk countries dominated headlines in the UK.
In September, the government announced local restrictions for areas in the North West and North East of the UK. Among the areas affected are Newcastle, Sunderland, Gateshead, Northumberland and the county of Durham. In these areas people are banned from meeting other households.
From October, the government also introduced the Rule of Six, which prevents groups of more than six people from socialising and replaces the exciting guidance on allowing two households to meet indoors and the cap on 30 people socialising at once.
Economic and other assumptions
Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its July 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP could fall by 12.4% in 2020, recovering by 8.7% in 2021, and that unemployment will reach 11.9% by the end of 2020, falling to 8.8% by the end of 2021.
Products covered in this Report
This Report focusses on the three major annual retail events that fall in the spring/summer months: Mother’s Day, Easter and Father’s Day.
For each of these events we provide an estimated market size along with in-depth research, which focuses on:
What gifts consumers buy for each of these events and how much they spend
What activities consumers do to celebrate Mother’s Day and Father’s Day
Where and how consumers shopped for gifts/products for these events
Consumer behaviours towards these events
The market size for this Report (reflecting the Report focus) covers Mother’s Day, Easter and Father’s Day. The market size for 2020 focuses on gift purchases by consumers and as such includes retail sales. Retail sales include all gift products and occasion food purchased for each event. The market size excludes spending on activities for each event.
The market size for 2020 excludes a breakdown of in-home food and drink due to the timing of events, with Easter and Father’s Day celebrated in lockdown.
